Ricardian productivity differences and the gains from trade

This paper evaluates the role of sectoral heterogeneity in determining the gains from trade. We first show analytically that in the presence of sectoral Ricardian comparative advantage, a one-sector sufficient statistic formula that uses total trade volumes as a share of total absorption systematically understates the true gains from trade. Greater relative sectoral productivity differences lead to larger disparities between the gains implied by the one-sector formula and the true gains. Using data on overall and sectoral trade shares in a sample of 79 countries and 19 sectors we show that the multi-sector formula implies on average 30% higher gains from trade than the one-sector formula, and as much as 100% higher gains for some countries. We then set up and estimate a quantitative Ricardian–Heckscher–Ohlin model in which no version of the formula applies exactly, and compare a range of sufficient statistic formulas to the true gains in this model. Confirming the earlier results, formulas that do not take into account the sectoral heterogeneity understate the true gains from trade in the model by as much as two-thirds. The one-sector formulas understate the gains by more in countries with greater dispersion in sectoral productivities.     

The Effects of Technology Changes on Sectoral Trade Patterns*

We develop a model in which sectoral trade patterns depend on both the technology common to all sectors and the technologies specific to each sector. Changes in the common technology level affect sectoral trade patterns through their impact on intertemporal optimization behavior, while changes in the sector‐specific technology levels affect sectoral trade patterns by influencing comparative advantage. The model shows: (1) unexpected increases in the common technology level worsen sectoral trade balances, but expected increases in the common technology level improve them; and (2) given other countries’ sectoral technology levels, an increase in a sector‐specific technology level relative to other sectors improves sectoral trade balances through its operation on comparative advantage. Using Japanese data, the empirical results reported in this paper support the model’s predictions.     

Convergence patterns and switchovers in comparative advantage

Although there exists a vast literature on convergence and divergence of income levels across countries or regions at the aggregate level, there is only little work on convergence and/or divergence processes of productivity and wage levels at the more disaggregated industrial level. These are especially important in the context of international trade as these determine the dynamics of comparative advantages and the resulting trade structures between developing and developed countries. In the first theoretical part, we discuss some theoretical aspects of uneven sectoral productivity and wage catching-up processes and their links to dynamic comparative advantages and trade structures. In the second part, we present an econometric study of catching-up of wages, productivity, and labour unit costs. The analysis is conducted at the industrial level (ISIC 3-digit) over the period 1965–1992 for a set of catching-up economies compared with more advanced countries.     

Evaluating the Impact of the US–China Trade War

We evaluate the impact of the US–China trade war using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of global trade. We conduct ex ante simulation analysis exploring three scenarios to understand how the trade war affects import tariffs, investment, and productivity. The escalation of the trade war reduces gross domestic product (GDP) in China and the USA by ?1.41% and ?1.35%, respectively. The trade war reduces nearly all sectoral imports and outputs in both countries. To reflect the important role of global value chains (GVCs), we modify the dynamic CGE model with agent‐specific import demands, and we explore the difference between the results for the two models relating to the trade war impacts on GDP and bilateral trade. When GVCs are accounted for, the negative impacts on bilateral trade are more widespread across countries, and world GDP in the modified model is reduced by ?$US450 billion. These results suggest that the GVCs play substantial role in determining trade responses at the disaggregated level.     

Education-job mismatch in Ukraine: Too many people with tertiary education or too many jobs for low-skilled?

This paper examines changes in the incidence of education-job mismatch in Ukraine over 10 years and the determinants of overeducation and undereducation at the regional level, with a particular attention paid to the differences between younger and older workers. It also analyzes shifts in the occupational and sectoral structure of employment driven by technological changes and restructuring of the Ukrainian economy. A job polarization in Ukraine seems to stem from deindustrialization, expansion of subsistence farming, rapid growth of retail trade and other less-knowledge intensive services, rather than from routine-based technological changes observed in developed countries. Our results, obtained from the Hausman–Taylor panel data model, suggest that fairly high and persistent education-job mismatch results from both the supply (too many people with tertiary university education) and demand (too many jobs for low-skilled workers) factors. Taking into account that older workers are often more prone to overeducation in Ukraine than their younger peers, the major concern is that overeducation is likely to be a dead-end for many workers.     

International trade and technical progress: the role of capital good imports in Portugal>

This paper develops an empirical analysis of the relationship between sectoral openness to capital good imports and technological sophistication. Input-output data from Portugal are used to demonstrate a strong relation between capital imports and sectoral technological levels as measured by vertically integrated labour coefficients. Both regression and non-parametric analyses are used. Such a relationship demonstrates the necessity of breaking out of the long-held focus on one-time exchange gains by trade theorists. It is argued that productivity gains from trade resulting from transfers of technology are primary gains of great importance and must be incorporated into theoretical work on trade. The paper also demonstrates a strong connection between a sector's capital imports and the technical training of the workforce of the sector. This suggests a relation between a sector's level of technology and its ability to make further advances through capital imports embodying advanced foreign technology. Sectors (countries) need technically trained workers in order to achieve a successful transfer. Interestingly, it is found that while Portugal clearly utilized trade with its more developed trading partners to augment its technology, this was not enough to avoid a technological divergence from its more developed neighbours. Several reasons for this are posited.     

The elusive effects of trade on growth: Export diversity and economic take‐off

The hallmark of the voluminous growth determinants literature is the absence of a clear‐cut effect of trade on growth. Numerous candidate regressors have been motivated by alternative theories and tested by a multitude of empirical studies, but not one trade regressor has been robustly related to growth. In this paper, we leverage Melitz's (2003) insights regarding sectoral export dynamics and Feenstra and Kee's (2008) approach to productivity and sectoral export diversity to propose a structured approach to trade and growth determinants. Instead of relying on aggregate trade measures as previous studies have done, we examine the diversity of sectoral exports and the development of broad‐based comparative advantage as a potential growth determinant. Controlling for model uncertainty and endogeneity, we find that export diversity serves as a crucial growth determinant for low‐income countries, an effect that weakens with the level of development.     

The heterogeneous effect of finance on international trade

Is the impact of financial development on international trade heterogeneous – being positive, negative or null – across manufacturing sectors? And is it dependent on the level of sectoral requirement on external finance for capital need? To examine these questions this article uses a panel trade database on 21 manufacturing sectors in 80 countries between 2000 and 2009. The analysis demonstrates that the effect of financial development on trade is indeed heterogeneous by estimating a coefficient for each sector and showing that the signs and significance levels vary across them. The article also demonstrates that sectors with strong reliance on external finance export higher volume from countries with developed financial system and that financial development reduces trade in industries with low financial dependence level.     

Labor shares in the old and new EU member states - Sectoral effects and the role of relative prices

The paper studies the labor share among countries of the European Union, with a particular attention to the newer member states of Central and Eastern Europe (CEEU). We find that CEEU countries typically have lower labor shares than older EU member states, both in the aggregate and at the sectoral level. Structural change, while quite pronounced among the CEEU economies, plays only a minor role in the evolution of the labor share. The exception is agriculture, which for some countries has a sizable impact on the level and dynamics of the labor share - partly because of important measurement problems. We also find that a significant part of the difference in conventionally measured labor shares between the more developed EU countries and less developed CEEU countries can be attributed to differences in relative prices. This is consistent with a productivity-based explanation: we show that a simple, calibrated two-sector model with sectoral productivity differentials can explain 36–71% of cross-country variations in the non-agricultural labor share.     

Trade and Technology from a Schumpeterian Perspective

This paper attempts to implement empirically a Schumpeterian model of international trade. After briefly discussing the literature on trade and technology, we formulate a model in which ‘real’ factors such as R&D expenditures, investment and wage costs have an impact on bilateral trade flows between advanced economies. We also take into account the effect of exchange rate differences. The model is empirically estimated on sectoral data for nine OECD countries. We find that what determines competitiveness differs by sector. In many sectors, either R&D expenditures or wage costs are important. The results for investment indicate a weaker role. Consistent with the Marshall-Lerner logic, we find that the sign of exchange rate changes varies by sector. We conclude the paper by a discussion of the relevance of the results for ‘technology-based’ theories of international trade.     

Liberalizing Services Trade In APEC: A General Equilibrium Analysis with Imperfect Competition

The paper studies services-sector trade liberalization in the Asia–Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) Forum using a global, multicountry, multisector applied general equilibrium model with an imperfectly competitive service sector. Reducing the service sector's nontariff barriers is modeled by eliminating the possibility for oligopolistic firms to price-discriminate between client countries within APEC and lowering the fixed costs of the firms doing service exporting business. The results suggest that services trade liberalization reinforces existing sectoral trade balances. Increase in demand for intermediate services tends to reinforce rather than counteract the role of primary factors in determining sectoral comparative advantage. The western APEC members received the greatest welfare gains from services trade liberalization, while the developing economies gained more if only tariffs were eliminated.     

Economic development and inflation: a theoretical and empirical analysis

This paper studies the relation between inflation and economic development. The literature is largely silent regarding both the theoretical and empirical perspectives that undeveloped countries endure higher average inflation than developed economies. We present a simple theoretical model linking the inflation phenomenon to the tradition of development economics. Empirical evidence is garnered to test the hypothesis that economic development engenders a downward bias to inflation rates. Through the feasible-GLS estimator in a panel of 65 countries from 2001 to 2011, we aim at listing a number of variables most commonly used to explain differences in the stage of economic development across countries and identifying the most statistically relevant ones to account for differences in inflationary patterns. While our results show that inflation is inversely correlated with the level of the technological content of the economy (measured by share of high-tech exports), human capital and cyclical unemployment, it is directly related to the degree of inflation persistence and terms of trade growth. However, our findings still present an inverse and low correlation between inflation persistence and economic development, implying that development-sensitive variables allowed into the model can only partially account for the differences in inflation at different levels of economic development.     

Classical Ricardian Theory of Comparative Advantage Revisited

According to the classical Ricardian theory of comparative advantage, relative labor productivities determine trade patterns. The Ricardian model plays an important pedagogical role in international economics, but has received scant empirical attention since the 1960s. This paper assesses the contemporary relevance of the Ricardian model for US trade. Cross-section seemingly unrelated regressions of sectoral trade flows on relative labor productivity and unit labor costs are run for a number of countries vis-à-vis the United States. The coefficients are almost always correctly signed and statistically significant, although much of the sectoral variation of trade remains unexplained.     

双边自由贸易协定深度异质性及区内全球价值链效应*——基于GVC修正引力模型实证研究

双边自由贸易协定深度嬗变,全球价值链引致贸易形成机制和形式变化,使得自由贸易区理论基础、影响机制和功能效应更替。本文基于对双边自由贸易协定深度演化以及相较于其他区域贸易协定的深度异质性研究,将公司产权理论纳入自由贸易区理论框架,形成双边自由贸易区内全球价值链效应的多维理论机制,并且运用适应全球价值链发展的修正引力模型和世界银行的贸易协定内容数据库对理论机制假设结论进行实证检验。研究发现：双边自由贸易协定总深度对区内成员国之间的全球价值链关联产生正向影响,相较于贸易相关条款深度而言,投资相关条款深度影响更大。此外,自由贸易区对象国差异性也会影响双边自由贸易区全球价值链效应的发挥。根据对象国不同选择差异化的自由贸易区深度在双边自由贸易区构建中重要性凸显。本文将为全球价值链背景下中国构建高标准自由贸易区网络的对象国选择、自由贸易区模式选择等提供政策参考。     

Wake up and smell the ginseng: International trade and the rise of incremental innovation in low-wage countries

Increasingly, a small number of low-wage countries such as China and India are involved in incremental innovation. That is, they are responsible for resolving production-line bugs and suggesting product improvements. We provide evidence of this new phenomenon and develop a model in which there is a transition from old-style product-cycle trade to trade involving incremental innovation in low-wage countries. The model explains why levels of involvement in incremental innovation vary across low-wage countries and across firms within each low-wage country. We draw out implications for sectoral earnings, living standards, the capital account and, foremost, international trade in goods.     

Analysis of Bilateral Trade Patterns With Panel Data

Bilateral trade flows are examined to investigate whether trade patterns are consistent with a simple model of trade in differentiated products. In contrast to previous results in the literature, it is shown that the simple model of trade in differentiated products is often not appropriate for trade among the poor nations. Demand differences among the poor countries are shown to be at least a partial explanation for the deviations from the theoretical predictions.     

Supply oriented macroeconomics: The MACE model of Canada

This paper describes MACE, a two sector annual nacroeconometric model of the Canadian economy. The sectoral breakdown highlights the role of energy in a small open economy. In addition, the model emphasizes the supply side, which includes both the evolution of normal output and the determination of the level of current output as the consequence of an explicit operating rate decision by firms. The bulk of the paper outlines the approach used to model supply side considerations, since this is where most of the model's innovative features lie.     

Sectoral FTA gains,conflicts, and the role of interindustry factor mobility: Evidence from Korea's free trade agreement

Free trade agreements (FTAs) can ignite domestic conflicts between export- and import-competing industries over trade gains. However, if the factors of production, such as capital and labour, move freely across industries, the returns to factor owners will quickly converge. Then, sectoral conflicts over FTAs will be less likely to arise. We analyse the case of South Korea's FTAs to measure (a) sectoral FTA gains and (b) interindustry factor mobility and to examine (c) the role of interindustry factor mobility in mitigating sectoral conflicts over trade policies. South Korea is an ideal case study due to the low barriers to domestic geographic mobility and high trade dependence. Based on data on its trade with 252 countries and factor returns between 2002 and 2017, we find that export industries did not gain much from the FTAs, while the import-competing agricultural sector was the winner. Sectoral conflicts greatly decreased over 2008–2010. Interindustry capital mobility plays a significant role in weakening the sectoral conflicts, while the impact of interindustry labour mobility is limited.     

The Foreign Trade and Sectoral Impact of Truck Road Pricing for Cross-Border Trade

Truck road pricing is on the brink of beingintroduced in a number of European countries.The experience gained from Switzerland, thefirst country worldwide to implement such adistant-dependent pricing scheme, has provedinvaluable. Nevertheless, significant questionsstill remain. The present paper attempts toprovide some clarity by analysing the welfareand sectoral impact resulting from theintroduction of truck road pricing with respectto foreign trade. It is shown that this impactcan be separated into four effects: the pureterms of trade effect, the tax revenue effect,the transit tax revenue effect and the resourcegain effect (resources set free by a reductionin transport activity). A CGE simulation ofeach of these effects identifies theirquantitative implications. Out of the foureffects the pure terms of trade effect turnsout to dominate at both the sectoral andaggregate level. It triggers a trade-inducedwelfare loss. The tax revenue effect, and lessso the transit revenue effect, mitigate thisloss. For a full road transport costinternalization a trade-induced welfare loss isquantified for Austria at 1.3%. Sensitivity ofthis and other aggregate variables is high withrespect to household reaction to transport taxrevenue refunding. The trade-induced welfareloss of variable size as explored in thisarticle counterbalances a fraction of thewelfare gain due to internalization.     

LOBBYING COMPETITION OVER TRADE POLICY*

Competition between opposing lobbies is an important factor in the endogenous determination of trade policy. This article investigates the consequences of lobbying competition between upstream and downstream producers. The theoretical structure underlying the empirical analysis is the well‐known Grossman–Helpman model of trade policy determination, modified to account for the cross‐sectoral use of inputs (itself a quantitatively significant phenomenon, with around 50% of manufacturing output being used by other sectors rather than in final consumption). Our empirical results validate the theoretical predictions. Importantly, accounting for lobbying competition also alters substantially estimates of the “welfare‐mindedness” of governments in setting trade policy.