中等城市绿色交通系统分类评定模型建构

根据以往我国城市绿色交通的调查结论,设计调查问卷,调查之后进行分析。运用Logit回归模型,建立一个专门针对二元因变量的Binary Logit模型,得出以下结论:收入水平、交通拥堵状况、对小汽车的态度和低碳环保意识4个变量因为统计检验不显著而未能进入最终模型。同时,油价、停车费、居所附近的直达公交线路、居所附近的轨道交通、公共交通乘坐舒适度、工作日平均出行距离与居民绿色出行方式的选择具有显著相关关系。     

Infant mortality,relative income and public policy

Do health outcomes depend on relative income as well as on an individual's absolute level of income? We use infant mortality as a health status indicator and find a significant and positive link between infant mortality and income inequality using cross-national data for 93 countries. Holding constant the income of each of the three poorest quintiles of a country's population, we find that an increase in the income of the upper 20% of the income distribution is associated with higher, not the lower infant mortality. Our results are robust and not just caused by the concave relationship between income and health. The estimates imply a decrease in infant mortality by 1.5% for a one percentage point decrease in the income share of the richest quintile. The overall results are sensitive to public policy: public health care expenditure, educational outcomes, and access to basic sanitation and safe water can explain the inequality–health relationship. Thus, our findings support the hypothesis of public disinvestment in human capital in countries with high income inequality. However, we are not able to determine whether public policy is a confounder or mediator of the relationship between income distribution and health. Relative deprivation caused by the income distance between an individual and the individual's reference group is another possible explanation for a direct effect from income inequality to health.     

中国汽车需求预测:基于Gompertz模型的分析

人均收入水平是影响汽车拥有率的决定性因素.本文在前人研究的基础上,运用Gomp-ertz模型研究汽车拥有率和人均收入之间的非线性关系.本文选取的研究对象既包括当今的发达国家,又包括众多发展中国家,尤其是亚洲的欠发达国家.通过对各国的时间序列数据和多国的横截面数据做回归,并对汽车拥有率及其收入弹性做国际比较,研究发现Gompertz方程能够很好地解释各国汽车拥有率发展共有趋势:在一国经济发展过程中,汽车拥有率先加速增长,在经历了一个拐点后,减速增长,最后无限趋近于共有的餍足点,本文设为0.62;而收入弹性呈先上升,在达到最大值后下降的状态.本文重点分析了近年来中国的汽车拥有率问题,并预测出中国的汽车拥有率拐点在人均GDP YIP=12 000,汽车拥有率VIp=0.2281上,假定中国人均GDP的增长速度在3%-7%的范围内,这个拐点将发生在2015-2042年之间,那时的汽车总量将大于259 996 496辆.此外,收入分配不均对中国的汽车拥有率有着重要的影响.     

New estimates of labour supply elasticities for married women in Canada 1996–2005

In this article, we estimate income and substitution labour supply and participation elasticities for Canadian married women using data from the Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics 1996–2005. We use the Canadian Tax and Credit Simulator (CTaCS) and detailed information on the structure of income at the household level to compute the marginal tax rates faced by each individual. We then use these marginal tax rates to compute net own-wage, spouse-wage, and nonlabour income. We show how the magnitude of the estimated elasticities varies depending on whether net or gross wages and income are used in the estimation procedure, and quantify biases caused by using average tax rates instead of marginal tax rates. Finally, because marginal tax rates vary significantly over the sample, we use quantile regressions to compare elasticities at different points of the hours distribution. Overall, our results show that public policies now have, on average, less scope for influencing hours of work than 10 years ago. However, the quantile results show that wives working fewer hours per week are more sensitive to changes in their own or spouses’ wages.     

Optimal taxation over the life cycle

We derive the optimal labor income tax schedule for a life cycle model with deterministic productivity variation and complete asset markets. An individual chooses whether and how much to work at each date. The government must finance a given expenditure and does not have access to lump sum taxation. We develop a solution method that uses the primal approach to solve for the optimal non-linear tax function. The average tax rate determines when an individual will work while the marginal tax rate determines how much she will work. Even in the absence of redistributive concerns, the optimal tax schedule has an increasing average tax rate at low levels of income to encourage labor market participation. The marginal tax rate at the top is strictly positive. Finally, the model is used to assess the effects of changing the current tax schedule to the optimal one. Under the preferred parameters, this delivers a welfare gain equivalent to 0.67 percent of lifetime consumption.     

An Economic Analysis of Public Transfers

This paper develops simple models of public transfers. The sources of income inequality are differences in ability and in luck. The government employs a redistribution policy that arises from altruistic motives in the case of ability differences. I consider the case where the government re-optimizes income transfers after it observes the outcome of private activities. When the source of income inequality is differences in luck, the economy creates a mutual insurance or provides public goods out of risk-sharing motives. I derive the paradoxical result that a more able individual would not enjoy higher welfare than a less able individual. I also investigate how public transfers react to increases in income level and income inequality.
JEL Classification Numbers: F21, F35.     

Does grassroots democracy reduce income inequality in China?

Using village and household survey data collected from 48 villages of eight Chinese provinces for the period 1986–2002, this paper studies how the introduction of village elections affects income distribution at the village level. We estimate both a static fixed-effect panel model and a dynamic panel model for the within-village Gini coefficient and take care of the endogeneity of the introduction of elections. The dynamic panel model shows that having elections reduces the Gini coefficient by 0.04, or 14.3% of the sample average. We also find that elections tend to increase the income shares of poorer portions of the population. Further econometric analysis based on dynamic panel models shows that elections increase per-capita public expenditures by 271 Yuan, but do not increase the level or progressiveness of net or total income transfer in a village. Therefore, elections' positive role in reducing income inequality is not played through more income redistribution, but through more pro-poor public investment.     

A QUANTITATIVE ANALYSIS OF SUBURBANIZATION AND THE DIFFUSION OF THE AUTOMOBILE*

Suburbanization in the United States between 1910 and 1970 was concurrent with the diffusion of the automobile. A circular city model is developed in order to access quantitatively the contribution of automobiles and rising incomes to suburbanization. The model incorporates a number of driving forces of suburbanization and car adoption, including falling automobile prices, rising real incomes, changing costs of traveling by car and with public transportation, and urban population growth. According to the model, 60% of postwar (1940–1970) suburbanization can be explained by these factors. Rising real incomes and falling automobile prices are shown to be the key drivers of suburbanization.     

Distortionary company car taxation: deadweight losses through increased car ownership

We analyse the effects of distortionary company car taxation through increased household car consumption for the Netherlands. We use several identification strategies and demonstrate that for about 20 % of households company car possession increases car ownership. The annual welfare loss of distortionary company taxation through increased car ownership is generally rather small, maximally €120 per company car, and much less than the welfare loss through increased expenditure on the company car. However, for policies that exempt households from paying tax on their company car, the annual deadweight loss is likely higher. Our first-best tax policy recommendation is to increase company car tax rates. However, our current results suggest that a second-best policy, which keeps average company car taxation constant but which reduces the marginal tax on cheaper cars and increases the marginal tax on expensive cars, would be welfare improving as overconsumption of company cars will be reduced.     

Household tax evasion

Household members share public goods and make intra-household transfers. We show how these features of the household interact with the tax evasion decision, and identify the dimensions in which household evasion differs from individual evasion. In the model we present two members of a household choose how much to contribute to a household public good and how much self-employment income to evade. We are interested in how different evasion possibilities interact with the contribution decisions to the household public good and the role of income transfers within the household. We show the household evasion decision differs from the individual decision because it affects the outcome of the household contribution game. When household members are taxed as individuals neutrality applies when choices are not constrained. If the evasion level of one household member is constrained then an income transfer can generate a Pareto improvement. When the household members are jointly taxed there is a couple constraint on strategies and corner solutions can emerge.     

Travel patterns and the potential use of electric cars – Results from a direct survey in six European countries

A significant penetration of electrical drive vehicles (EDVs) in the fleet is possible only if their use is compatible with mobility patterns of individuals. Building on the analysis of car mobility patterns by means of web-based car trips diaries filled in by a sample of individuals in six European countries, this paper provides insights on how EDVs could fit mobility habits. Critical aspects related to driving behaviour, which should be considered to allow the penetration of electric cars in the market, are identified. Among others results, we show that average daily driven distance in 6 countries ranges from an average of 40 km (UK) to an average of 80 km (Poland) and the parking time after the last trip of a day amounts to more than 16 h per day. These findings show that the current drive and parking behaviours are in line with the range limitation of current EDVs and the potential need for a full slow recharge of an average EDV battery. Our results are a starting point for the estimation on energy demand profiles to assess how electrical energy supply can meet demand under the assumptions of a wide market share of EDVs.     

Top Income Adjustments and Inequality: An Investigation of the EU-SILC†

This paper provides a novel assessment of how the World Inequality Database (WID) top income adjustment applied by Blanchet, Chancel, and Gethin (2021) to European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) data for 26 countries over 2003–2017 for Distributional National Accounts purposes affects inequality in equivalized gross and disposable household income. On average, the Gini is increased by around 2.4 points for both gross and disposable income, with notable differences across countries but limited impact on trends. EU-SILC countries that rely on administrative register data see relatively small effects on inequality. Comparing with two other recent studies, differences in impacts on measured inequality depend less on the adjustment method and more on whether external data sources are used.     

Autocorrelation,structural breaks and the predictive ability of dividend yield

Wine consumption is modelled by focusing on three decisions. The first is whether to consume any alcoholic beverages. Setting aside the teetotalers, the second decision is whether to consume wine and the third choice is how much to consume. We model these decisions using a double-hurdle approach. Our econometric results indicate that the probability a man drinks wine increases if he is under age 65, has a high income and is a high school graduate. Heavy wine consumers are over age 65, are well educated, physically active, and have high incomes.     

Hidden impact? Household saving in response to a poor-area development project

The possibility that poor households may prefer to save the income gains from a development project raises concerns about how well standard evaluation methods–using data collected over relatively short periods–can capture the true welfare impacts. By the widely used difference-in-difference method, the Southwest China Poverty Reduction Project had little current impact on the proportion of people in beneficiary villages consuming less than US$1/day—despite a public outlay of US$400 million. However, the program had much larger impacts on incomes than consumptions. Uncertainty about the project's future impact probably made it hard for participants to infer the gain in permanent income, so they saved a high proportion of the current income gains.     

Optimal taxation of car ownership, car use and public transport: Insights derived from a discrete choice numerical optimization model

We formulated and numerically evaluated a model of car ownership, car use and public transport use for peak and off-peak hours of the day. The model was used to study the optimal tax structure for passenger transport in Belgium, with special emphasis on the optimal tax treatment of diesel versus gasoline cars. We obtained a number of interesting results. First, if the government can set all fixed and variable transport taxes optimally, the higher marginal external cost of diesel use implies that the optimal tax per kilometre for the use of a diesel car is higher than for the use of a gasoline car. Moreover, high congestion implies that the taxes on car use in the peak period are more than twice their current levels. However, the optimal tax on ownership of a diesel car is some 200€ below its current level. Second, if the government uses kilometre taxes that do not differentiate between fuel types, the optimal ownership tax on a diesel car is twice as high as the tax on a gasoline car. Furthermore, if political constraints restrict user taxes to their current levels, we find that optimal ownership taxes on diesel cars double, whereas those on gasoline cars rise by 30%. Finally, subsidies to public transport are found to be optimal as long as variable car taxes are not differentiated between periods.     

Collective Risk Control and Group Security: The Unexpected Consequences of Differential Risk Aversion

We provide an analysis of odds‐improving self‐protection for when it yields collective benefits to groups, such as alliances of nations, for whom risks of loss are public bads and prevention of loss is a public good. Our analysis of common risk reduction shows how diminishing returns in risk improvement can be folded into income effects. These income effects then imply that whether protection is inferior or normal depends on the risk aversion characteristics of underlying utility functions, and on the interaction between these, the level of risk, and marginal effectiveness of risk abatement. We demonstrate how public good inferiority is highly likely when the good is “group risk reduction.” In fact, we discover a natural or endogenous limit on the size of a group and of the amount of risk controlling outlay it will provide under Nash behavior. We call this limit an “Inferior Goods Barrier” to voluntary risk reduction. For the paradigm case of declining risk aversion, increases in group size(wealth) will cause provision of more safety to change from a normal to an inferior good thereby creating such a barrier.     

The Demand for Australian Rules Football*

Declining attendances at Australian Rules football games organized by the VFL recently have become the focus of much concern. An econometric analysis of the demand for football is presented, using annual average attendance data for the years 1950–86. It is found that increases in admission prices had a significant negative effect on demand, and increases in real income a positive impact. Amongst other variables of importance in explaining demand are lagged attendance and uncertainty of outcome. Elasticities of demand are calculated and it is shown how they might be used to predict attendance under different pricing scenarios.     

A COMPARISON OF DISTRIBUTIONS OF ANNUAL AND LIFETIME INCOME: SWEDEN AROUND 1970.

The concern with income distribution has always mainly existed because of a concern with individuals' economic welfare. In recent years, the question has arisen whether the distribution of annual income—the distribution most often studied—is the best proxy for the distribution of economic welfare. Other measures, such as lifetime income, have been proposed instead.
The paper starts with a discussion of how to define and measure the distribution of lifetime income. By using a simulation model, which partly consists of estimated functions and partly of tax functions taken directly from tax laws, distributions of lifetime income, variously defined, are then constructed. These distributions are compared with each other, and with distributions of annual income. The simulations indicate that the distribution of lifetime income is considerably less unequal than the distribution of annual income. Whether inheritances are included or not seems to be of no importance for the inequality of lifetime income. If, on the other hand, we include the value of leisure time in lifetime income, inequality increases by about 10–15 percent. Distributions of income after tax have Gini coefficients which are approximately 25 percent less than the Ginis for the before-tax distributions. We thus find that the picture of inequality we get is very much dependent on which income concept we use.     

Public good provision rules and income distribution: Some general equilibrium calculations

A central issue in the analysis of public goods is the relationship between the optimal provision level and the distribution of income. Theoretical research has stressed the conditions under which the optimum is independent of the distribution of income. Here we focus on numerical analysis of more policy-relevant concerns. Specifically, to what extent is a given redistribution of income likely to affect the optimal level of public good supply? And how significant are the welfare costs of not adjusting public good supply when income distribution changes? We use an applied general equilibrium (AGE) model of the Australian economy and public sector to generate numerical estimates of the impacts of redistributive policies on these variables. Results suggest that the traditional separation of allocation and distribution in determining the level of public good supply may be a justifiable empirical simplification, except where very dramatic redistributions are involved.     

Community and class antagonism

We investigate how vertical unity within a community interacts with horizontal class divisions of an unequal income distribution. Community is conceptualized in terms of a public good to which all those in the community have equal access, but from which outsiders are excluded. We formulate the idea of redistributive tension, or class antagonism, in terms of the costs that poorer individuals would be willing to impose on the rich, to achieve a given gain in personal income. Our conclusion is that the nominal distribution of income could give a misleading picture of tensions in society, both within and across communities. Ideologies of community solidarity may well trump those of class solidarity because of the implicit sharing of community resources brought about by community-specific public goods. Greater economic mobility of particular types may actually exacerbate class tensions instead of attenuating them. We illustrate our theoretical results with a discussion of a number of historical episodes of shifting class tensions and alliances.