Modelling transport fuel pathways: Achieving cost-effective oil use reduction in passenger cars in Sweden

Several technology and fuel options could be used to lower the strong oil dependence of the transportation sector. To formulate policies and to cost-effectively meet oil reduction objectives, assessments and comparisons of the long-term economic performances of different technology trajectories are essential. In this work, the energy and technology costs associated with reducing oil consumption in passenger cars in Sweden are calculated for a number of possible future transport fuel pathways and for different energy prices and climate policies. An optimisation model is applied in a simulatory multiple-run approach for this purpose. The model encompasses the transportation sector, as well as the stationary energy system. In terms of results, a methanol-based pathway gives incremental system costs in the range of ? 0.9–3 billion EUR for a complete phase-out of passenger car oil up to 2030. As compared to the methanol pathway, other biomass gasification-based fuel pathways involve additional incremental system costs in the region of 3 billion EUR, whereas ethanol- and electricity-based pathways give additional incremental system costs of 4–5 billion EUR. At lower oil reduction levels, the cost differences between the pathways are smaller and the electricity-based pathway is significantly more cost-competitive.     

Regulatory design and technical efficiency: public transport in France

The provision of local public transport in France involves private and public firms and the use of incentive contracts to regulate them. We study the effect of these institutional features on the sector’s efficiency using a long panel data of firms, with a two-stage estimation procedure. First, we use nonparametric data envelopment analysis techniques to estimate input usage efficiency, following a conditional approach that controls for differences in the environments in which the firms operate. Second, we estimate semiparametric censored regressions, using fixed effects to control for unobserved sources of heterogeneity. Our results point to a differential effect of private and mixed public-private companies. In particular, having the performance of public operators as the benchmark, efficiency is relatively higher for private firms, but lower when the service is delegated to a mixed public-private firm. In the latter case, the effects diverge by contract type: when the contract is of the cost reimbursement type, performance is lower than the public firm benchmark, while for other contract types, there are no statistically significant differences.     

The public reallocation of resources across age: a comparison of Austria and Sweden

There is a strong interdependency between public transfers and the shape of the economic lifecycle because these transfers facilitate and enable the decoupling of production and consumption over long time periods, most notably in childhood and retirement. The design of public transfers obviously influences the production and consumption and consequently also the degree of economic dependency of children and the elderly. We propose economic dependency ratios which are based on age-specific consumption and labour income or age-specific public contributions/benefits, respectively, illustrating them in a comparison of Austria and Sweden. Although these two countries are very similar economies in terms of production, income and the size of the public sector, there are remarkable differences in the design of public transfers, in their distribution over age-groups and consequently in the shape of the average economic lifecycle. Using the economic dependency ratios we show that the financial sustainability of the public transfer system depends beside the demographic developments strongly on its design: the Swedish system collects the contributions from a wider range of age groups, transfers a smaller share to the elderly and provides more support to younger generations, supporting them to invest in children of their own. These characteristics have a positive effect on the sustainability of the Swedish system: although in Sweden there is a larger share of the population in the age group 60+, the total economic dependency of elderly persons is lower.     

Estimating the causal effect of beliefs on contributions in repeated public good games

We use instrumental variables for estimating the causal effect of beliefs on contributions in repeated public good games. The effect is about half as large as suggested by ordinary least squares. Thus, we present evidence that beliefs have a causal effect on contributions, but also that beliefs are endogenous. We compare the causal, belief-based model of contributions to alternative models based on matching the previous contributions of others and responding to one’s deviation from the average in the previous round. The causal, belief-based model performs well, indicating that beliefs have a central role in determining contributions.     

Local public expenditure in Sweden a model where the median voter is not necessarily decisive

This paper deals with local public expenditures, and the analysis is based on cross-section data for the Swedish municipalities. Two models are estimated; one is the basic median voter model where the decisive voter is assumed to be the voter with median income, while the other is a more general statistical alternative. The statistical alternative nests the basic median voter model as a special case, which makes it easy to test the null hypothesis that the basic median voter model is the correct model, given that the alternative is the true general structure. Although our results indicate a rejection of the null hypothesis, the estimation results are, nevertheless, similar for the two models.     

A macroeconomic analysis of the public investments in European combined transport

Intermodal transport has been recognized as a priority by the European Union, that has defined different budget allocations of investments to improve the shifting from road to intermodal transport, which is more sustainable. In this context, the main aim of the paper is to discuss the macroeconomic effects, in terms of economic growth, welfare and trade, of these public investments for combined transport, which aspects have been neglected in literature. A multi-country computable general equilibrium model has been used. The main results have been that the European Union benefits from these investments, but at international level, USA and Japan would lose in terms of welfare. Furthermore, the welfare change has been decomposed in its components and the results show that the trade effects are higher than the allocative effects. The robustness of the results has been tested over time and by a sensitivity analysis of the exchange rate.     

Exploring technology paths: The development of alternative transport fuels in Sweden 2007-2020

By using socio-technical scenarios, we investigate how present policy choices may affect the development of alternative transport fuels in Sweden. One important choice for policy lies in the balance between general tax exemptions stimulating the market for alternative fuels, and funding of research and development more directly promoting new technology. The implications of this choice are illustrated with four diverging development paths until 2020. In the market-oriented scenarios, we illustrate consequences of breaking the dominance of entrenched technologies and demonstrating a growing market potential for alternatives, but also the risks with a large focus on first generation renewable fuels. In the technology-oriented scenarios, we point out the value of keeping variety among niches in this stage of the transition. In conclusion, if policy is implemented without taking the dynamic forces within the system into account, there is a risk that any measure leads the system into a dead end. But if policy strives to balance the development in different parts of the technological system while making use of various prevailing forces of change, a multitude of different efforts can contribute to the development of a more sustainable transport system.     

Sustainable resource use,economic development,and public regulation

The role of production technology for sustainable economic growth and resource management in the multispecies renewable resources industries is a neglected issue, particularly in complex tropical ecosystems. Given the still rudimentary understanding of biological interactions among species, even in most temperate ecosystems, the importance of under-standing the technological and economic interactions is heightened for sustainable economic growth and public regulation. This paper evaluates these interactions for the multiproduct gill net fisheries of Peninsular Malaysia. Standard price and quantity controls may have little promise. Gear regulations, a policy of constant escapement, and managing the entire mix of species as a single stock for economic rather than biomass yield appear the most promising management tools given the limited regulatory options.     

The fiscal consequences of public health investments in disease-modifying therapies for the treatment of multiple sclerosis in Sweden

Abstract

Background and aims: The economic consequences of multiple sclerosis (MS) are broader than those observed within the health system. The progressive nature suggests that people will not be able to live a normal productive life and will gradually require public benefits to maintain living standards. This study investigates the public economic impact of MS and how investments in disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) influence the lifetime costs to government attributed to changes in lifetime tax revenue and disability benefits based on improved health status linked to delayed disease progression.

Methods: Disease progression rates from previous MS Markov cohort models were applied to interferon beta-1a, peginterferon beta-1a, dimethyl fumarate, and natalizumab using a public economic framework. The established relationship between expanded disability status scale and work-force participation, annual earnings, and disability rates for each DMT were applied. Subsequently, we assessed the effect of DMTs on discounted governmental costs consisting of health service costs, social insurance and disability costs, and changes in lifetime tax revenues.

Results: Fiscal benefits attributed to informal care and community services savings for interferon beta-1a, peginterferon beta-1a, dimethyl fumarate, and natalizumab were SEK340,387, SEK486,837, SEK257,330, and SEK958,852 compared to placebo, respectively. Tax revenue gains linked to changes in lifetime productivity for interferon beta-1a, peginterferon beta-1a, dimethyl fumarate, and natalizumab were estimated to be SEK27,474, SEK39,659, SEK21,661, and SEK75,809, with combined fiscal benefits of cost savings and tax revenue increases of SEK410,039, SEK596,592, SEK326,939, and SEK1,208,023, respectively.

Conclusion: The analysis described here illustrates the broader public economic benefits for government attributed to changes in disease status. The lifetime social insurance transfer costs were highest in non-treated patients, and lower social insurance costs were demonstrated with DMTs. These findings suggest that focusing cost-effectiveness analysis only on health costs will likely underestimate the value of DMTs.     

Fundamental obstacles to the use of scientific information in public policy making

In contrast to the prevailing view that more effective use can be made of scientific information in public policy formation, several fundamental obstacles to the effective use of science are identified and described. It is argued that any effort to bring scientific information to bear on public policy must show how these obstacles have been removed.     

Unemployment and labour-force participation in Sweden

This paper investigates the relationship between Swedish unemployment and labour-force participation. Cointegration analysis supports a robust long-run relationship between the two variables. This finding puts the empirical relevance of the unemployment invariance hypothesis into question.     

Estimating the social cost of pesticide use: An assessment from acute poisoning in Brazil

The intensive use of pesticides in countries like Brazil has ignored structural and institutional shortfalls, such as the lack of workforce training for the new, difficult to implement technologies, and the institutional vulnerability of the environmental protection, health, and safety sectors. As a result we have “invisible” or social, environmental and health costs which end up being socialised with the farmer, in general, having no incentives to recognise and internalise them. This study is intended to review and develop this problem in the light of the Brazilian reality. To this end, we make use of an empirical exercise to illustrate estimation of the social cost associated with acute poisoning by pesticide using the PREVS/IBGE data (Harvest Forecast Research) in the state of Paraná, Brazil. The results suggest that, for maize, the costs of acute poisoning could represent 64% of the benefits of using herbicides and insecticides, and, in the best of hypotheses, when some risk factors are eliminated, they may reach 8% of the benefits of the use of these products. Similarly, when we examine future scenarios for five and ten years, we find less encouraging results, as in ten years the costs of acute poisoning could reach around 85% of the benefit of using insecticides and herbicides for maize. However, there is the encouraging news that, if preventive measures were taken during this time, the gains would be considerable, about 6.5 times greater. We conclude that an assessment of the real benefits involved with pesticides in Brazil is required, principally in regard to the smallholder, where farmers need more training in the use — or even the elimination — of these hazardous substances. There are sustainable technological options available which are economically efficient, especially if we consider the social, environmental and health costs. In this context it is worth highlighting the role of regulatory measures as a mechanism which can reorient generation of negative external costs through the reduction of current incentives in the socialisation of private costs.     

Cost structure and technological change of local public transport: the Kaohsiung City Bus case

This study has developed a translog cost function for the Kaohsiung City Bus (KCB) to analyse its cost structure and economic characteristics, based on monthly data over the time period from January 1996 to December 2000. The empirical results reveal that economies of density in the provision of bus services in Kaohsiung do prevail. The estimated marginal cost, which is less than the average cost but greater than the current bus fare, indicates that the subsidy is necessary. Due to the existence of returns to density (RTD), the KCB could obtain cost-saving benefits by extending its output scale. The KCB production technology is also not neutral. The effects of technological change on the KCB costs suggest that over the period 1996–2000 technological progress did lead to cost saving; the pure productivity growth rate increased from 0.45% in 1998 to 3% in 2000.     

Reliability of individual valuations of public and private goods: Choice consistency, response time, and preference refinement

We examined the reliability of a large set of paired comparison value judgments involving public goods, private goods, and sums of money. As respondents progressed through a random sequence of paired choices they were each given, their response time decreased and they became more consistent, apparently fine-tuning their responses, suggesting that respondents tend to begin a hypothetical value exercise with relatively imprecise preferences and that experience in expressing preference helps reduce that imprecision. Reliability was greater for private than for public good choices, and greater for choices between a good and a monetary amount than for choices between two goods. However, the reliability for public good choices was only slightly lower than for the private goods.     

Food Prices and Market Structure in Sweden

This paper examines retail grocery price levels across a large panel of stores in Sweden. We explain price variation across stores by market structure variables to capture differences in competition intensity and a number of store– and region–specific factors. Most of the explained variation in prices can be attributed to store–specific factors such as size and chain affiliation. Overall, the relation between market structure variables and food prices is weak, and effects are small in percentage terms. Nevertheless, higher local concentration of stores, higher regional wholesaler concentration and a lower market share of large stores are all correlated with higher prices.
JEL classification : D 43; L 13; L 81     

2010年瑞典的科技研究进展与成果

2010年瑞典继续保持在医药、工程与制造业、信息与通信技术、森林工业、能源等研究创新领域的优势,并取得了一定的研究进展与成果,受到了全球的关注。瑞典2010—2011年全球竞争力排名第二。2010年是瑞典政府实施“2009—2012年研究与创新预算法案”的第二年。政府开始实施对重大领域的资助。此外,瑞典还积极参与欧洲以及其他国家的国际合作项目。     

索洛方程在环境污染损失评估领域的应用

基于可持续发展理论,提出了一种将索洛方程用于评估环境污染损失价值的新方法———静态索洛方程法。该方法将环境视为新的生产要素,认为一个系统的产出是资本、劳动力(以及环境共同作用的结果。然后,以某热电厂为例,对其环境污染损失进行了计算,以说明该方法的可行性。     

Scenario planning in public policy: Understanding use,impacts and the role of institutional context factors

Scenario planning has formed a growing area of interest on the interface of academia and public and private sector policy-making. While methodological approaches are well covered in the academic literature, less attention has been paid to studying the use, impacts and effectiveness of scenario planning in public policy-making. This article combines preliminary findings from a review of evaluative scenario literature with workshop discussions among scenario practitioners, using environmental relevant policies as a case study. Subject to the nascent evaluative scenario literature, our preliminary findings highlight that scenario planning still is often executed in a rather ad-hoc and isolated manner and is mostly geared towards indirect decision support such as agenda-setting and issue-framing. The slim evidence base aggravates the assessment, but the potential of scenario planning to prepare public policy-making for the uncertainties and surprises of future developments and better manage complex decisions involving conflicting societal interests is clearly not fully utilized. Political and institutional context factors need to be treated with greater care in the future. Making better decisions under conditions of deep uncertainty does not only require rigorous analysis, but also political will and more stable institutional settings and organisational capacities to build up trust and experience with adaptive, flexible process formats. We synthesize our analysis with a discussion of further research needs.     

Valuing urban accessibility and air quality in Sweden

This article is concerned with the implicit values of urban accessibility and air quality in Sweden. Based on the hedonic wage and rent theory, we construct an econometric model to compute such values, and illustrate their implications for regional welfare analysis. It is shown that for most Swedish cities, welfare has increased from 1986 to 1998 due to improved air quality but the positive effect is partly offset by the deteriorated accessibility in some areas. The results also indicate that the values people place on urban accessibility and air quality vary considerably across regions.