Innovation and imitation: substitutes or complements?

Most of the research on imitation and innovation has focused on developed countries and examined whether imitation promotes or hinders innovation at the macro, industry and intra firm level, and the effect that this has on economic growth. Less research has been conducted about the dynamics that exist between innovation and imitation at the plant-level in developing countries, and the effect that trade policy has on this relationship. This article uses plant-level data from Mexico to analyse the dynamic relationship that exists between innovation and imitation at the microeconomic level. The empirical results suggest that in the context of a developing country, innovation and imitation complement each other and trade policy has no effect on this relationship.     

Tobacco and alcohol: complements or substitutes?

The question of whether alcohol and tobacco are consumed as complements or substitutes is crucial for determining the side-effects of anti-smoking policies. Numerous papers have empirically addressed this issue by estimating demand systems for alcohol and tobacco, and subsequently calculating cross-price effects. However, this traditional approach is often seriously hampered by insufficient price variation observed in survey data. We, therefore, suggest an alternative instrumental variables approach that statistically mimics an experimental study and does not rely on prices as explanatory variables. This approach is applied by means of German survey data. Our estimation results suggest that a reduction in tobacco consumption results in a moderate reduction in alcohol consumption. It is demonstrated that this implies that alcohol and tobacco are complements. Hence, we conclude that successful anti-smoking policies will not result in the unintended side-effect of an increased (ab)use of alcohol.     

Robots and humans – complements or substitutes?

The effect of the spread of Artificial Intelligence (AI) on wages depends on both the form of aggregate production relationships and the elasticity of substitution between human and robotic labor. With a conventional production function involving labor, robots, and ordinary capital, an increase in robotic labor can have either a positive or a negative effect on wages. Alternatively, it is possible to estimate the aggregate production relationship without measuring capital or other fixed factors explicitly, using the procedure developed by Houthakker in the 1950s. Houthakker's method is based on the probability distribution of the productivity of the variable factor. Fitting different distributions to cross-sectional data on U.S. productivity, it is shown that if the elasticity of substitution between human and robotic labor is greater than about 1.9, the burgeoning of AI technologies will cause a decline in aggregate wages, other things equal. For the manufacturing sector, an even smaller human-robot elasticity of substitution is likely to result in declining wages of industrial workers as robots proliferate.     

Bundled discounts: Strategic substitutes or complements?

Bundled discounts by pairs of otherwise independent firms play an increasingly important role as a strategic tool in several industries. Given that prices of firms competing for the same consumers are strategic complements, one would expect their discounts levels also to be strategic complements. However, in this paper we show that under some circumstances bundled discounts may be strategic substitutes. This occurs under vertically differentiated products where a low quality pair of producers may indeed prefer to lower its discount after an increase in the discount offered by a high quality pair of producers.     

Are contributions of time and money substitutes or complements?

This article empirically investigates the relationship between donations of time and money using Canadian tax policy reforms that changed the tax price of charitable donations. The 1988 reform where a charitable tax deduction was converted to a credit and the 2000 reform in provincial income taxes provide tax price variations plausibly exogenous to individuals’ unobserved heterogeneity. Our estimates on cross-price effects imply that individuals make more time donations as the tax price of charitable donations increases and hence money and time donations are substitutes, as some theories would imply. This contrasts with earlier findings using cross-sectional data.     

Are corporate social responsibility and advertising complements or substitutes in producing firm reputation?

A firm’s reputation is one of the critical drivers of success, and two of the key levers firms use to influence their perceived reputation are corporate social responsibility (CSR) and advertising. The relationship between CSR and advertising is important because whether they are complements or substitutes has different implications for how firms use these activities. Using a unique panel dataset of US-listed companies between 2005 and 2014, we estimate flexible production functions to identify whether CSR and advertising act as complements or substitutes in the production of firm reputation. A secondary motivation of this paper is to examine whether the use of different stakeholder ratings of firm reputation matters. We find evidence consistent with advertising and CSR being substitutes toward the production of firm reputation. Our results also show that advertising, own-firm CSR activities, and industry-level CSR spillovers contribute positively to firm reputation. Lastly, we find that the effects of CSR and advertising vary across the stakeholder groups (general public, business executives, or CSR experts) used in the analysis.     

Energy and capital: substitutes or complements? Some results for the UK industrial sector

This paper investigates the substitutability or complementarity possibilities between capital, labour and energy in the UK industrial sector, with particular attention to the captial-energy relationship. It is found, using the translog-cost-function approach, that capital and labour as well as energy and labour are substitutes. However, capital and energy are found to be complements.     

Hysteresis in unemployment: Fact or fiction?

A stylized fact of European unemployment dynamics is one of extreme persistence and possible unit root behavior. This has led to a major reconsideration of the natural rate paradigm. We apply the Kalman filter to estimate the natural rate of unemployment for Germany and France. When the moving natural rate model is tested against the alternative of a unit root process, the unit root hypothesis is resoundingly rejected.     

Easter Island: historical anecdote or warning for the future?

Two standard solutions for the ‘Malthusian Trap’ involve institutional reforms and technological progress. Using Easter Island as an example, we investigate the hypothetical role that technological progress and population management reform might have played in preventing the collapse of the island's civilization. The model includes a composite manufactured good and a composite harvested renewable resource. Fertility is assumed to rise with per capita income. The resource's carrying capacity and intrinsic growth rate as well as labor's harvesting productivity are subject to technological progress. Fertility is subject to population management reform. The model yields a system of two simultaneous, nonlinear, non-autonomous differential equations. We first study the system's steady states. The system is then parameterized for Easter Island and its comparative dynamics are investigated in simulations. We find that technological progress can generate large fluctuations in population, renewable resources, and per capita utility, sometimes resulting in system collapse. With high fertility rates, the population and the resource vanish. None of the simulations investigated here exhibit a constantly growing per capita utility over time. Finally, we evaluate the applicability of these results to contemporary societies.     

Real exchange rates: are they dominated by fundamental factors?

Using Bayesian model averaging, we determine which fundamental pair-wise differences suggested by the literature on optimum currency areas give the best explanation of medium-term variability of bilateral real exchange rates. The intercept in the best specification is statistically insignificant, implying that for a hypothetical pair of economies for which the differences were zero, the bilateral real exchange rate would not move. Thus, the ‘non-fundamental’ element of the medium-term real exchange rate variability is, in our sample at least, negligible on average. In other words, floating exchange rate does not in itself imply, on average, more real exchange rate variability in the medium term than an exchange rate peg.     

International reserves and swap lines: Substitutes or complements?

Developing Asia experienced a sharp surge in foreign currency reserves prior to the 2008–9 crisis. The global crisis has been associated with an unprecedented rise of swap agreements between central banks of larger economies and their counterparts in smaller economies. We explore whether such swap lines can reduce the need for reserve accumulation. The evidence suggests that there is only a limited scope for swaps to substitute for reserves. The selectivity of the swap lines indicates that only countries with significant trade and financial linkages can expect access to such ad hoc arrangements, on a case by case basis. Moral hazard concerns suggest that the applicability of these arrangements will remain limited. However, deepening swap agreements and regional reserve pooling arrangements may weaken the precautionary motive for reserve accumulation.     

Inflation,inflation uncertainty and growth: Are they related?

We examine the relationship between inflation uncertainty, inflation and growth using annual historical data on industrial countries covering in many cases more than one century. Proxying inflation uncertainty by the conditional variance of inflation shocks, we obtain the following results. (1) There is significant evidence for the positive effect of inflation uncertainty on inflation supporting the Cukierman–Meltzer hypothesis. (2) There is mixed evidence on the causal effect of inflation on inflation uncertainty. (3) There is strong evidence that inflation uncertainty is not detrimental to output growth.     

The impact of monetary announcements on forward interest rates: Movements in term premia or expected future rates?

Evidence is presented on how the response of forward interest rates to money supply and monetary base announcements is decomposed into movements in term premia and expected future interest rates. A significant movement of each component is found for at least one sample period.     

Institutional specifics and unemployment insurance eligibility in Canada: How sensitive are employment duration effects?

The paper examines the influence of unemployment insurance on the duration of employment spells in Canada using the 1988–90 Labour Market Activity Survey. The primary focus of the paper is to evaluate whether estimated UI effects are sensitive to the degree to which institutional rules and regulations governing UI eligibility and entitlement are explicitly modelled. The key result of the paper is that it is indeed important to allow for institutional detail when estimating unemployment insurance effects. Estimates using simple proxies for eligibility indicate small, often insignificant UI effects. The size and significance of the effects rise as more realistic versions of the variables are adopted. The estimates using the eligibility variables incorporating the greatest level of institutional detail suggest that a jump in the hazard rate by a factor of 2.3 may not be an unreasonable estimate of the effect.     

Public debts,deficits and interest rates in CEECs: are there spatial spillovers?

In this paper we extend the literature on the relationship between public debts, deficits and government bond yields in the following directions: we examine a set of 11 Central and Eastern European countries during the period 2006–2015; we apply a novel econometric technique that allows for spatial effects; and we test forward-looking instead of current values of explanatory variables thus addressing endogeneity problem. We find that there is overall a highly significant positive effect of both public debt and deficit on long-term interest rates. This effect is found to be larger in CEECs than in developed countries. Moreover, deficits are found to exert a large and significant indirect effect, and these spillovers amount to more than 50% of the overall effect.     

The time-varying policy neutral rate in real-time: A predictor for future inflation?

This paper examines the time-varying policy neutral interest rate in real-time for the Czech Republic in 2001:1–2006:09, estimating various specifications of simple Taylor-type monetary policy rules. For this reason, we apply a structural time-varying parameter model with endogenous regressors. The results indicate that the policy neutral rate gradually decreased over the sample period to levels comparable to those in the euro area. Next, we propose a measure of the monetary policy stance based on the difference between the actual interest rate and the estimated policy neutral rate and find it a useful predictor of the level as well as the change of the future inflation rate.     

The nursing informatics workforce: who are they and what do they do?

Nursing informatics has evolved into an integral part of health care delivery and a differentiating factor in the selection, implementation, and evaluation of health IT that supports safe, high-quality, patient-centric care. New nursing informatics workforce data reveal changing dynamics in clinical experience, job responsibilities, applications, barriers to success, information, and compensation and benefits. In addition to the more traditional informatics nurse role, a new position has begun to emerge in the health care C-suite with the introduction of the chief nursing informatics officer (CNIO). The CNIO is the senior informatics nurse guiding the implementation and optimization of HIT systems for an organization. With their fused clinical and informatics background, informatics nurses and CNIOs are uniquely positioned to help with "meaningful use" initiatives which are so important to changing the face of health care in the United States.     

Business cycles in EU new member states: How and why are they different?

This paper uses the business cycle accounting framework to investigate the differences between economic fluctuations in Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries and the euro area. We decompose output movements into the contributions of four economic wedges, affecting the production technology, the agents’ intra- and intertemporal choices, and the aggregate resource constraint. We next analyze the observed cross-country differences in business cycles with respect to these four identified wedges. Our results indicate that business cycles in the CEE countries do differ from those observed in the euro area, even though substantial convergence has been achieved after the eastern EU enlargement. The major differences concern the importance of the intra- and intertemporal wedges, which account for a larger proportion of output fluctuations in the CEE region and also exhibit relatively little comovement with their euro area counterparts.     

Do long-term interest rates drive GDP and inflation in small open economies? Evidence from Poland

This article investigates the impact of long-term interest rates on macroeconomic variables in a small open economy. It shows that the time-varying term premium stabilizes GDP without affecting significantly inflation volatility in Poland – a typical open economy with flexible exchange rate. This conclusion is drawn from an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model in which segmented asset markets and imperfect asset substitutability give rise to the time-varying term premium in the long-term interest rate. Furthermore, the impulse response analysis of the model reveals that the term premium stabilizes GDP when the small economy is hit by shocks that are absent in closed economy models (country risk premium and export preference) which points to the different impact of the term premium on relatively close (large) and open (small) economies.