International risk‐sharing in the short run and in the long run

Abstract International risk‐sharing has far‐reaching implications both for economic policy and for basic research in economics. When countries do not share consumption risk, individuals experience consumption fluctuations that are undesirable and possibly unnecessary. We investigate bilateral risk‐sharing at short vs. long horizons. We find substantial cross‐country consumption correlations at trend and business‐cycle frequencies. Correlations are particularly high within Europe. Prior research focused on first‐difference correlations, which are typically quite low. We argue that this reflects measurement error. At all horizons, we find that consumption correlations are not significantly different from output correlations, implying a lack of deliberate consumption risk‐sharing.     

Composition of International Assets and the Long‐run Current Account

We document the role of capital gains and losses for the current account that a country can sustain along a balanced growth path. While it is well know that growth allows a country to run a current account deficit and still keep its external debt stable as a share of GDP, the sensitivity of the current account to the composition of external assets and liabilities has received little attention. We show that this composition matters because several assets, such as equity or FDI, earn substantial capital gains that are not reflected in the current account. A country that is a net creditor in such assets can then sustain a larger current account deficit. Using a broad sample, we show that this aspect substantially tilts estimates of the long‐run current account towards a deficit among industrialized economies, with the opposite situation for emerging markets. We also show that industrialized economies are likely to benefit from predictable capital gains in the future.     

Foreign portfolio diversification and risk-sharing

We investigate income smoothing associated with international portfolio diversification by decomposing the net factor income (NFI) channel into interests, dividends and retained earnings, for OECD and EU countries. We find that interest receipts and equity dividend payments contribute significantly to absorb domestic income shocks. Geographically concentrated portfolios and, in particular, biases toward EU markets have a strong negative effect on the degree of risk-sharing.     

Securitization of mortgage debt,domestic lending,and international risk sharing

Abstract Securitization makes mortgage‐related risks internationally tradeable and thus contributes considerably to the international diversification of macroeconomic risk: in the years 2003–2008, the increase in international cross‐holdings of securitized mortgage debt has lowered industrialized countries’ conditional consumption volatility (relative to the United States) by about 10–15 percentage points. We turn to the role of domestic credit in explaining this result. Domestic credit leads to better international risk sharing only if debt is securitized and traded internationally. Conversely, the risk‐sharing benefits from securitization seem to evaporate if credit dries up – as it did in the recent financial crisis.     

Limited asset market participation and the consumption‐real exchange rate anomaly

Abstract Under efficient consumption risk sharing, as assumed in standard international business cycle models, a country's aggregate consumption rises relative to foreign consumption, when the country's real exchange rate depreciates. Yet empirically, relative consumption and the real exchange rate are essentially uncorrelated. This paper shows that this ‘consumption‐real exchange rate anomaly’ can be explained by a simple model in which a subset of households trade in complete financial markets, while the remaining households lead hand‐to‐mouth (HTM) lives. HTM behaviour also generates greater volatility of the real exchange rate and of net exports, which likewise brings the model closer to the data.     

Financial globalization and real regionalization

Over the period 1972-1986, the US business cycle was strongly correlated with the business cycle in the rest of the industrialized world. Over the period 1986-2000, international co-movement was much weaker (real regionalization). At the same time, US international asset trade has increased significantly ( financial globalization). We first document these phenomena in detail and then argue that they are related. In particular, we present a model in which financial globalization occurs endogenously in response to less correlated real shocks. Financial globalization, by enhancing cross-border capital flows, further reduces the international correlations in GDP and factor supplies. We find that both less correlated shocks and the endogenous change in international financial markets are needed to quantitatively account for the observed changes in the international business cycle.     

Capital Mobility, Consumption Substitutability and the Effects of Monetary Policy in Open Economies

Abstract. I use a dynamic general equilibrium two‐country optimizing model to analyze the implications of international capital mobility for the short‐run effects of monetary policy in an open economy. The model implies that the substitutability of goods produced in different countries plays a central role for the impact of changes in the degree of international capital mobility on the effects of monetary policy. Paralleling the results of the traditional Mundell–Fleming model, a higher degree of international capital mobility magnifies the short‐run output effects of monetary policy only if the Marshall–Lerner condition, which is linked to the cross‐country substitutability of goods, holds.     

A model of relative national price levels under pricing to market

This paper proposes an alternative to the Balassa-Samuelson theory of how relative price levels between countries are determined. The theory is a general equilibrium formulation of a model where pricing to market arises endogenously from firm decisions. It differs from Balassa-Samuelson in that it centers on the distinction between segmented national goods markets rather than the distinction between traded and nontraded goods. The paper also explores how Balassa-Samuelson might be updated by combining it together with pricing to market elements. Applied to the case of a monetary union, the theory offers an alternative explanation for the inflation differentials observed in EMU. It implies that such differentials may be a natural and enduring feature of a monetary union in which markets for goods and labor are less than fully integrated.     

The prospects of a monetary union in East Asia

This paper assesses the empirical desirability of the East Asian economies to form a monetary union. The Structural Vector Autoregression (VAR) method is employed to assess the nature of macroeconomic disturbances among the East Asian countries, as a preliminary guide in identifying potential candidates for forming an Optimum Currency Area (OCA). In comparison with European countries, East Asia has less symmetric underlying structural shocks but the speed of adjustment to shocks is much faster. The empirical results suggest that there exists a scope among some small sub-regions, comprising mainly of ASEAN countries, for potential monetary integration. The finding of an increased symmetry of shocks among countries after the Asian Financial crisis indicates that the regional policy-coordinating effort after the crisis has put the region on the right track if monetary union is a desired goal.     

FEAR OF FLOATING IN EAST ASIA?

Abstract.  We examine the de facto exchange rate arrangements in eight East Asian countries during the post-Asian crisis period. The empirical results suggest that three countries adopted a hard peg or a peg with capital account restrictions, whereas five countries moved toward a more flexible exchange rate arrangement in the post-crisis period. Three of these five countries (Korea, Indonesia and Thailand) achieved a level of exchange rate flexibility close to the level accomplished in a free floater such as Australia. These results suggest that 'fear of floating' in East Asia is not prevalent in the post-crisis period, supporting the bipolar view of the optimal exchange rate regime.     

Inflation and output in the long and short run in Turkey

This paper firstly discusses the impact of inflation on real output in different theoretical models and then investigates this impact empirically in an economy facing persistent high inflation. We find some evidence of Sidrauski’s (Am Econ Rev 57:534–544, 1967) superneutrality of money for Turkey in the long run. However, it seems that inflation affects real output negatively in the short run. These results are more compatible with a class of utility functions in which real money balances and consumption are perfect complements as Asako (Econometrica 51(5):1593–1596, 1983) elucidates.     

The international risk sharing puzzle is at business cycle and lower frequency

Abstract We decompose the correlation between relative consumption and the real exchange rate in its dynamic components at different frequencies. Using multivariate spectral analysis techniques, we show that, at odds with a high degree of risk sharing, in most OECD countries the dynamic correlation tends to be quite negative, and significantly so, at frequencies lower than two years – the appropriate frequencies for assessing the performance of international business cycle models. Theoretically, we show that the dynamic correlation over different frequencies predicted by standard open economy models is the sum of two terms: a term constant across frequencies, which can be negative when uninsurable risk is large; a term variable across frequencies, which in bond economies is necessarily positive, reflecting the insurance intertemporal trade provides against forecastable contingencies. Numerical analysis suggests that leading mechanisms proposed by the literature to account for the puzzle are consistent with the evidence across the spectrum.     

David Hume and Irving Fisher on the quantity theory of money in the long run and the short run

The Modern variant of internationalization of Swedish economics began at the end of the nineteenth century will Wicksell as the first clearly international economist. By that time foreign influences came especially from the German-language area. We concentrate, however, on the period after the Second World war. Our statistics is based oninter alia, the Scandinagian Journal of Economics. English has gradually become the most important language in citations and Swedish dissertations. American influences have become large, and the Swedish ideal of research is very similar to the American one. The evolution is, however, not unequivocal.     

The contribution of domestic, regional and international factors to Latin America's business cycle

This paper quantifies the relative contribution of domestic, regional and international factors to the fluctuation of domestic output in six key Latin American (LA) countries: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Peru. Using quarterly data over the period 1980:1-2003:4, a multi-variate, multi-country time series model was estimated to study the economic interdependence among LA countries and, in addition, between each of them and the three world largest industrial economies: the US, the Euro Area and Japan. Falsifying a common suspicion, it is shown that the proportion of LA countries' domestic output variability explained by industrial countries' factors is modest. By contrast, domestic and regional factors account for the main share of output variability at all simulation horizons. The implications for the choice of the exchange rate regime are also discussed.