REIT and Commercial Real Estate Returns: A Postmortem of the Financial Crisis

In the years surrounding the financial crisis, the share prices of equity Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) were much more volatile than the underlying commercial real estate prices. To better understand this phenomenon we examine the cross‐sectional dispersion of REIT returns during this time period with a particular focus on the influence of their capital structures. By looking at both the debt ratio and the maturity structure of the debt, we separate the pure leverage effect from the effect of financial distress. Consistent with leverage and financial distress costs amplifying the price decline, we find that the share prices of REITs with higher debt‐to‐asset ratios and shorter maturity debt fell more during the 2007 to early‐2009 crisis period. Although REIT prices rebounded with the bounce back in commercial real estate prices, financial distress costs had a permanent effect on REIT values. In particular, we find that REITs with more debt due during the crisis period tended to sell more property and issue more equity in 2009, when prices were depressed.     

Uncertainty premia in REIT returns

We provide a systematic study of how financial and real estate uncertainty affect the aggregate return performance of the U.S. REIT market from 1994 to 2017. A temporal causality analysis reveals a negative uncertainty impact on REIT returns. The asset pricing analysis confirms the predictive relation and suggests that REITs are statistically significantly exposed to changes in market-wide uncertainty, for which investors require a return compensation. We also identify economic state variables to explain time-varying uncertainty exposures as well as periodic hedging characteristics of REITs. Finally, we find evidence that the source of uncertainty matters for compensating expected REIT returns.     

Heterogeneous Investor Sentiment and Institutional Real Estate Investments

Commercial real estate investors differ in their sentiment due to factors such as market expertise, investment strategies and expectations about future market conditions. Focusing on the office market, we investigate whether investors with a multiasset investment focus such as pension funds or insurance companies rely on the sentiment of specialized real estate investors such as public REITs or private developers/owners as source of information in their investment decision‐making. Using disaggregated sentiment measures and vector autoregression (VAR) we find evidence that changes in REIT and private real estate investor sentiment lead to changes in institutional investor sentiment in the suburban office and office REIT market. Our findings suggest that institutional investors rely on the sentiment of specialized real estate investors to make real estate investment decisions. Our study contributes to the existing literature on sentiment in commercial real estate markets by emphasizing the heterogeneity of investor sentiment and introducing a disaggregated sentiment measure. We also contribute to the institutional herding literature.     

The Integration of Commercial Real Estate Markets and Stock Markets

This paper tests whether commercial real estate markets (both exchange-traded and non-exchange-traded) are integrated with stock markets using multifactor asset pricing models. The results support the hypothesis that the market for exchange-traded real estate companies, including REITs, is integrated with the market for exchange-traded (non-real-estate) stocks. Moreover, the degree of integration has significantly increased during the 1990s. However, when appraisal-based returns (adjusted for smoothing) are used to construct real estate portfolio returns, the results fail to support the integration hypothesis, although this may reflect the inability of these estimated private market returns to accurately proxy for commercial real estate returns. Interestingly, the growth rate in real per capita consumption is consistently priced in both commercial real estate markets and stock markets, whereas previous studies have found mixed evidence on the role of consumption in explaining ex ante stock returns.     

REIT Stock Price Volatility and the Effects of Leverage

This article sheds light on several puzzling empirical observations. We examine the volatility implications of equity Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) stock returns over the sample period from January 1985 through October 2012. We find a negative “leverage effect” in the pre‐ and post‐Greenspan era, but not during the Greenspan era (circa 1994–2006). We argue that the positive elasticity of variance with respect to the value of equity during the Greenspan era can be explained by a decline in the spread between the yield on commercial mortgages and 10‐year Treasuries, which triggered a wealth transfer from REIT equity holders to REIT debt holders. We also argue that the declining commercial‐mortgage‐10‐year‐Treasury yield spread during the Greenspan era allowed REITs to take on far more risk than most people realized. We then document that average REIT stock return volatility increased significantly in the 2007–2010 period in the midst of a historic decline in REIT stock prices. The results have significant implications for the good deal of interest and debate in the media over the status of REITs and whether equity REITs have become excessively risky relative to the returns they generate.     

Privately Versus Publicly Held Asset Investment Performance

Classic asset pricing is problematic as a method to assess privately held asset investment performance. We propose an alternative approach that involves adjusting the characteristics of assets constituting an index or portfolio to match the asset characteristics of a reference index or portfolio. This approach is applied to commercial real estate, where we create an index of REIT returns to compare to the NCREIF index. To enhance comparability, return indices are adjusted for partial-year financial data, leverage, asset mix and fees. Adjusted results over a 1980–1998 sample period show general convergence between the indices, although an annual return difference of over three percentage points remains in favor of public market asset ownership. Possible causes of the investment performance gap include liquidity and geography as missing risk factor adjustments, an unrepresentative sample period, and the form in which commercial real estate assets are held.     

Geographic Portfolio Allocations,Property Selection and Performance Attribution in Public and Private Real Estate Markets

This article examines the effects of geographic portfolio concentrations on the return performance of U.S. public real estate investment trusts versus private commercial real estate over the 1996–2013 time period. Adjusting private market returns for differences in geographic concentrations with public markets, we find that core private market performance falls. Using return performance attribution analysis, we find that the geographic allocation effect constitutes only a small portion of the total return difference between listed and private market returns, whereas individual property selection within geographic locations explains, in part, the documented outperformance of listed versus private real estate market returns.     

An Analysis of REIT Security Issuance Decisions

This article tests the ability of traditional capital structure theories to explain the issuance decisions of real estate investment trusts (REITs). For issuances made between 1997 and 2006, we find strong support for the market timing theory of capital structure. Controlling for past returns and growth, a REIT is more likely to issue equity when its price-to–net asset value ratio is high. This suggests that REITs issue equity in public markets when the cost of equity capital is lower in the public market than in the private market. Consistent with traditional market timing, REITs are more likely to issue equity after experiencing large price increases. We also find some support for REITs following the trade-off theory of capital structure. REITs are less likely to issue debt when proxies for expected bankruptcy costs are high.     

Short Sales and Price Discovery in the Hong Kong Real Estate Market

Indirect real estate (IRE) returns are often shown to lead direct real estate (DRE) returns. Apart from differences in liquidity, transaction costs, and management skills, the DRE market is also less complete than the IRE market—when negative shocks arrive, one can only short IRE (e.g., real estate stocks or REITs), but not DRE. This study investigates if short sales in the IRE market convey any information to the DRE market. Based on high‐frequency (weekly) property price data in Hong Kong from 2000 to 2012, we find that short sales in the IRE market led DRE returns, even after controlling for the lagged IRE returns in a VAR model. This supports an information spillover mechanism in which the DRE market learns private information that is not reflected in IRE returns. The spillover effect, however, weakened after the recent global financial crisis because the increased uncertainty over the credibility of individual firms made short sales more reflective of firm‐specific information than real estate market fundamentals.     

Correlation Dynamics and Determinants in International Securitized Real Estate Markets

We find the correlation movements among eight developed securitized real estate markets and among their stock markets are quite synchronized over the period from 1995 through 2012. There is a high degree of correlation dependence with many of the realized correlation series subject to regime switching. Moreover, international correlations of public property returns could be significantly explained by five real estate variables that include global real estate securities market volatility, co‐existence of real estate investment trust (REIT) influence, underlying direct real estate return performance differential, real estate securities volatility differential and real estate securities market size differential after controlling for macroeconomic influence and stock market effect. The importance of the control and real estate variables in explaining the return correlations varies across the economies examined.     

Risk and Return on Real Estate: Evidence from Equity REITs

We analyze monthly returns on an equally weighted index of eighteen to twenty-three equity (real property) real estate investment trusts (REITs) that were traded on major stock exchanges over the 1973–87 period. We employ a multifactor Arbitrage Pricing Model using prespecified macroeconomic factors. We also test whether equity REIT returns are related to changes in the discount on closed-end stock funds, which seems plausible given the closed-end nature of REITs.
Three factors, and the percentage change in the discount on closed-end stock funds, consistently drive equity REIT returns: unexpected inflation and changes in the risk and term structures of interest rates. The impacts of these variables on equity REIT returns is around 60% of the impacts on corporate stock returns generally. As expected, the impacts are greater for more heavily levered REITs than for less levered REITs. Real estate, at least as measured by the return performance of equity REITs, is less risky than stocks generally, but does not offer a superior risk-adjusted return and is not a hedge against unexpected inflation.     

Do Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds Explain Returns on REITs?

The monthly returns on equity and mortgage real estate investment trusts (REITs) are analyzed over the period July 1976 to December 1992. The results indicate that risk premiums on equity REITs are significantly related to risk premiums on a market portfolio of stocks as well as to the returns on mimicking portfolios for size and book-to-market equity factors in common stock returns. Mortgage REIT risk premiums are significantly related to the three stock market factors and two bond market factors in returns. Also, mortgage REIT shares underperform by an average of 6.8% per year.     

The Consequences of REIT Index Membership for Return Patterns

The impact of stock market index membership on Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) stock returns is unclear. Returns may become more like those of other indexed stocks and less like those of their underlying properties. Taking advantage of the inclusion of REITs in major S&P indexes starting in 2001, we find that shared index membership significantly increases the correlation between REIT returns. However, index membership also enhances the link between REIT returns and the underlying real estate, consistent with improved pricing efficiency.     

REIT Dividend Policies and Dividend Announcement Effects During the 2008–2009 Liquidity Crisis

Real estate investment trust (REIT) dividend policies and dividend announcement effects during the 2008–2009 liquidity crisis are examined. Multinomial logit results indicate that REITs with higher market leverage or lower market‐to‐book ratios are more likely to cut dividends, suspend dividends or pay elective stock dividends. These results imply that mitigating going‐concern risk is an important motive for REITs adjusting dividend policies during the crisis and support dividend catering theory where investor demand for dividends impacts corporate dividend policies. Moreover, REITs that cut or suspend dividends experience positive cumulative abnormal returns during the post‐announcement period after controlling for the potential influence from simultaneous funds from operation announcements. The positive market response over the post‐announcement period supports the notion that dividend decisions convey information to investors and is also consistent with the broad catering theory of dividend policy.     

Liquidity, Return and Order-Flow Linkages Between REITs and the Stock Market

This article represents the first exploration of liquidity and order flow spillovers across New York Stock Exchange stocks and real estate investment trusts (REITs). Impulse response functions and Granger causality tests indicate the existence of persistent liquidity spillovers running from REITs to non-REITs. Specifically, REIT liquidity indicators are forecastable from non-REIT ones, at both daily and monthly horizons. I also provide evidence of a liquidity premium inherent in REIT returns. While REIT prices appear to be set efficiently in that neither REIT nor non-REIT order flows forecast REIT returns, I find that order flows and returns in the stock market negatively forecast REIT order flows. This result is consistent with the notion that real estate markets are viewed as substitute investments for the stock market, which causes down-moves in the stock market to increase money flows to the REIT market.     

A Comparative Anatomy of Residential REITs and Private Real Estate Markets: Returns,Risks and Distributional Characteristics

Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are the only truly liquid assets related to residential real estate investments. We study the behavior of U.S. Residential REITs over the past three decades and document their return characteristics. REITs have somewhat less market risk than equity; their betas against a broad market index average about 0.58. Decomposing their covariances into principal components reveals several strong factors. Residential REIT characteristics differ to some extent from those of the S&P/Case‐Shiller (SCS) private real estate markets. This is partly attributable to methods of index construction. Our examination of REITs suggests that investment in residential real estate is far more risky than what might be inferred from the widely followed SCS series. Although the SCS and REITs indicate little support for being able to predict each other, there is strong evidence of self‐predictability for the series.     

Option Trading and REIT Returns

This article examines the relation between option trading volume and real estate investment trust (REIT) market performance. Specifically, we find that option volume increases are followed by decreases in returns. Furthermore, the portion of option volume that is orthogonal to REIT characteristics drives the observed return predictability relation, thereby suggesting that the return predictability of option trading is (at least partially) attributable to information‐based explanations. Finally, consistent with informed traders favoring option market activities due to short‐sale costs and/or constraints, we find option based return predictability is more evident within REITs than non‐REITs, even though firms within this industry are generally viewed as informationally transparent.     

REITs, IPO Waves and Long-Run Performance

The real estate investment trust (REIT) industry has undergone three waves of initial public offerings (IPOs) since 1980. In this article we examine these waves within the context of the general IPO wave literature. We note that the unique nature of REITs may render them more transparent than other stocks, and that this may affect their IPO performance. Specifically we document the initial and long-run performance of equity REIT IPOs during and after each wave, and we then examine which of the general IPO clustering and pricing theories best fits that performance data. We find evidence of much smaller initial returns than is typically found for non-REIT IPOs. We also find no evidence of the long-run negative abnormal performance for REITs that is normally found for other stocks. Our findings support the idea that the Capital Demand Hypothesis best describes the REIT IPO market, although we also find some weak evidence in favor of the Information Asymmetry Hypothesis. We find evidence against the Investor Sentiment Hypothesis.     

Real Estate Investment Trusts, Small Stocks and Bid-ask Spreads

This study examines the liquidity of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), as measured by their bid-ask spread. We find that REIT spreads have increased over the period 1986–1990, are inversely related to market capitalization, and are similar in magnitude to spreads on other stocks of comparable size. Analysis of variance tests indicate that REIT spreads are similar across equity, mortgage and hybrid asset types. Multivariate regression results indicate that market capitalization is the primary determinant of REIT bid-ask spreads, and spreads are larger for National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (NASDAQ) REITs than for New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) REITs. The regression results also indicate that spreads are lower for equity REITs than for mortgage or hybrid REITs, and are inversely related to the fraction of the REIT's shares held by institutional investors. The similarity between REIT spreads and those of other common stocks holds in both bull and bear real estate markets and suggests that, from a liquidity perspective, REITs are similar to other common stocks.     

Asset Pricing Information in Vintage REIT Returns: An Information Subset Test

REIT return data prior to the new REIT era offer important asset pricing information. At issue is whether empiricists should focus attention on returns series covering only the new period. We use a generalized asset pricing and information subset test to disentangle REIT information from information available in several benchmark series. Results indicate that REIT returns are informative about the discounting process during the pre–new-era period. Thus, the distribution of vintage REIT returns is not fully explained by either broad market indexes or from size-based anomalies. This study should be viewed as a useful empirical precedent for those studying REIT data preceding the new REIT era.