Stock Returns Under High Inflation and Interest Rates: Evidence from the Brazilian Market

We analyze the relationship of high inflation and interest rates with stock returns in Brazil from May 1986 to May 2011, during which Brazil experienced subperiods of both high inflation (May 1986-June 1994) and relative monetary stability (July 1994-May 2011). The result in the total period is dominated by high inflation volatility, and the findings suggest a bidirectional relationship between stock returns and inflation. During the high-inflation subperiod, interest rates are relevant to explain future changes in inflation and stock returns. Under low inflation, movements in interest rates are better anticipated by equity investors, suggesting higher market efficiency than in high-inflation circumstances.     

Macroprudential Policies and Housing Prices: A New Database and Empirical Evidence for Central,Eastern, and Southeastern Europe

Several countries in Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe used a rich set of prudential instruments during the recent credit and housing boom and bust cycles. We construct a comprehensive database of these policy measures covering 16 countries at a quarterly frequency. We use this database to investigate whether the policy measures had an impact on housing price inflation. The measures that appeared to be effective were capital measures (minimum capital adequacy ratio, maximum ratio of lending to households to share capital) and nonstandard liquidity measures (marginal reserve requirements (MRRs) on foreign funding, MRRs linked to credit growth).     

Interest Rate Surprises and Stock Prices

This paper examines the impact of unexpected changes in the federal funds target on stock prices from 1988 to 2001. Measures of interest rate surprises are constructed from survey data and changes in the 3-month T-bill yield. I find that surprises associated with decreases in the target cause stock prices to rise significantly. Surprises associated with increases in the target increase stock market volatility on the announcement day, with volatility reverting to pre-surprise levels on the day after the announcement. This volatility pattern is only evident since 1994. An implication is that concerns about immediate disclosure causing persistent and heightened stock market volatility might be misplaced.     

Information Risk in TIPS Market: An Analysis of Nominal and Real Interest Rates

This study investigates the presence of information risk in two closely linked interest rate securities traded in separate markets: the nominal interest rate observed in the Treasury bond market and the real interest rate observed in the relatively new Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) market. We find that information flows unilaterally from the Treasury bond market to the TIPS market with a one-day lag. The information risk arising from asymmetric information flows may cause less informed traders to demand a higher rate of return (OHara, 2003). Our study provides an empirical explanation of why the TIPS yield has been relatively high throughout its nascent trading history.     

Investments,Credit, and Corporate Financial Distress: Evidence from Central and Eastern Europe

Although they are instrumental for economic development, productivity-enhancing corporate investments may increase the financial vulnerability of companies, especially in an economic and financial crisis. We employ an instrumental probit model with the aim of finding evidence for the investment and credit patterns that led companies into financial distress during the global financial crisis 2009–2010. The company-level micro-data for our study on three Central and East European countries—Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania and two Baltic countries, Latvia and Lithuania—originates from two independent surveys, the Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey conducted in 2008 and the Financial Crisis Survey conducted in 2009/2010. Both were carried out jointly by the EBRD and the World Bank. Our results emphasize a substantial adverse impact from investment intensity and debt financing on company financial soundness during a crisis. On top of that, we discover a strong non-linear pattern in the sensitivity of company distress to its investment-financing nexus.     

On the Nonlinear Specifications of Short-Term Interest Rate Behavior: Evidence from Euro-Currency Markets

This paper presents a coherent nonlinear interest rate model that incorporates the dynamics of the error correction specification into the traditional term structure model. The joint tests based on six Euro-Currency rates indicate that the linear specification should be rejected. The estimated equation suggests that the linear components—the change of the long-term interest rate and the error correcting term are highly significant. The nonlinear components involving the higher order of the independent variables, the cross products, the lagged error squares, and/or the ARCH effect also present significant explanatory power for predicting short-term Euro-Currency rate changes, confirming the non-linear specifications.     

Further Evidence on the Real Interest Rate Parity Hypothesis in Central and East European Countries: Unit Roots and Nonlinearities

This paper analyzes the empirical fulfillment of the real interest rate parity (RIRP) theory for a pool of central and east European countries. To do so, we apply the recently developed Ng and Perron (2001) unit root tests, which are corrected versions of existing unit root tests, and the Kapetanios et al. (2003) unit root test, which generalizes the alternative hypothesis to the globally stationary smooth transition autoregression model. We find evidence in favor of the empirical fulfillment of RIRP, particularly when taking into account the possibility of nonlinearities in the real interest rate differential.     

An investigation of the benefits of portfolio investment in Central and Eastern European stock markets

This paper: (i) examines the potential benefits from diversifying into eight stock markets of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE); and (ii) quantifies the importance of country, industry and time factors in CEE equity returns. The findings suggest that substantial benefits exist from investing in CEE stock markets and that they accrue more from the geographical spread than from the industrial mix of the equities included in the portfolio. However, the returns earned by CEE equities vary dramatically over time. This variability may hamper the efforts of investors attempting to exploit the diversification “free lunch”.     

利率与股价之间的价格溢出效应与波动溢出效应

基于具有外生变量的二元VAR-MGARCH模型对中国货币市场利率和股价之间的关联进行了理论分析和实证研究。结果表明,利率和股价之间基本不存在价格溢出效应;货币市场利率和股价序列均表现出时变方差的特征和波动的持久性特征,货币市场和股市之间存在双向波动溢出效应;货币供给的正向冲击对利率的影响是正向的。     

Stock Prices and Inflation: New Evidence from the Pacific-Basin Countries

This paper investigates the statistical relationship between stock prices and inflation in nine countries in the Pacific-Basin. On balance, regression analysis on the nine markets shows negative relationships between stock returns in real terms and inflation in the short run, while co-integration tests on the same markets display a positive relationship between the same variables over the long run. The time path of the response of stock prices plotted against corresponding changes in consumer price indices validates this dichotomy in time-related response patterns of stock prices to inflation; namely, a blip of negative responses at the beginning changes to a positive response over a longer period of time. Stock prices in Asia, like those in the U.S. and Europe, appear to reflect a time-varying memory associated with inflation shocks that make stock portfolios a reasonably good hedge against inflation in the long run.     

The Effect of Demand on Stock Prices: Evidence from Index Fund Rebalancing

I examine the effect of demand on stock prices by analyzing the conversion of the TIPs 35 and TIPs 100 exchange‐traded funds into the i60 Fund. This conversion occurred at the Toronto Stock Exchange on March 6, 2000. Forty stocks of the TIPs 100 Fund that were not members of the new units of the i60 Fund were sold to complete this conversion. I find that a decrease in demand produced a permanent stock price decline, which was accompanied by significant abnormal trading volume. The results provide support for the downward‐sloping demand curve hypothesis.     

Empirical Analysis of Stock Returns and Volatility: Evidence from Seven Asian Stock Markets Based on TAR-GARCH Model

This paper investigates the time-series behavior of stock returns for seven Asian stock markets. In most cases, higher average returns appear to be associated with a higher level of volatility. Testing the relationship between stock returns and unexpected volatility, the evidence shows that four out of seven Asian stock markets have significant results. Further analyzing the relationship between stock returns and time-varying volatility by using Threshold Autoregressive GARCH(1,1)-in-mean specification indicates that the null hypothesis of no asymmetric effect on the conditional volatility is rejected for the daily data. However, the null cannot be rejected for the monthly data.     

Housing Prices and Maturing Real Estate Markets: Evidence from Uganda

Uganda, a less developed but rapidly growing East African nation, continues to correct the economic mismanagement of past governments. One important legacy of this mismanagement is the Land Decree of 1975, issued by then President Idi Amin Dada. This decree nationalized all land and made illegal all private real estate market transactions. This paper uses a rich, but little known, dataset to show that real estate markets appear to have continued operating reasonably efficiently in spite of the 1975 Decree. The Land Act of 1998 repealed the 1975 Decree. Our results suggest the recent Act has a high likelihood of success because its primary goal is to codify guarantees of security, transparency, and enforceable property rights in private real estate markets that appear to already exist.     

Corporate Focus and Stock Performance International Evidence from Listed Property Markets

Does corporate focus translate into superior stock performance? We use 17 years of international data on 275 property companies from the U.S., British, French, Dutch and Swedish listed property share markets to answer this question. After analyzing corporate structures, we document significant differences in corporate focus strategies both between nations and firms and over time. By linking these focus profiles to risk-adjusted performance measures, we show that companies with high levels of geographical focus perform significantly better than the overall market. With regard to industrial focus, our results are mixed but again imply a positive relationship between corporate focus and stock outperformance. At the same time, our results show that the firm-specific risk of a company increases with higher levels of corporate focus. Hence, our results imply that within the real estate sector a focused strategy mildly increases both a firm’s return and risk.     

Regulation Change and Volatility Spillovers: Evidence from China's Stock Markets

This paper investigates the structural changes of volatility spillovers between Chinese A-share and B-share markets induced by a regulation change on February 19, 2001, that allowed Chinese domestic investors to trade in the B-share market. The empirical results of the study, using high-frequency intraday data collected from a sample of seventy-eight firms issuing both A-shares and B-shares and employing a bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, show that after the regulation change, the volatility in A-shares increases the volatility in B-shares, thus increasing the risk of the whole market, whereas the latter reduces the former, thus reducing the risk of the whole market. A further investigation of the determinants influencing these structural changes shows that the following factors can encourage structural changes that reduce overall market risk: government ownership, institutional ownership, firm size, B-share proportion, and market-to-book ratio. Conversely, the following factors can encourage structural changes that increase overall market risk: dual roles of chief executive officer and chairman and the joint effect of firm size and B-share proportion.     

会计可靠性原则的盈余相关性及市场定价——来自沪、深股市的经验证据

本文以中国证券市场2001至2004年期间的上市公司为对象,考察了公司会计可靠性原则的盈余相关性及其市场定价。我们首先考察基于收付实现制的现金收益和基于权责发生制的应计总额的相对盈余相关性,并考察市场定价是否对两者的计量可靠性差异做出反映。在此基础上,我们进一步着重考察具有较高可靠性的非融资性流动负债和较低可靠性的非融资性流动资产,考察其盈余相关性及市场定价。研究发现,基于收付实现制的现金收益具有更高的盈余相关性,但市场表现出存在利润“功能锁定”现象,并未对其做出反映。非融资性流动负债具有正的盈余相关性,非融资性流动资产具有负的盈余相关性。二者相比较,会计可靠性计量原则与盈余相关性具有显著正相关关系。从市场定价角度看,市场给予了非融资性流动负债正的定价、非融资性流动资产负的定价。即市场符合“幼稚投资者”假说,市场给予了会计可靠性原则正的定价,但其显著程度尚比较弱,在加入各种控制变量之后,其显著程度进一步弱化。     

Interest Rate Risk Rewards in Stock Returns of Financial Corporations: Evidence from Germany

The interest rate sensitivity of stock returns of financial and non-financial corporations is a well-known phenomenon. However, only little is known about the part of total stock returns that is attributable to the compensation an investor receives for being exposed to interest rate risk when investing in equity securities. We pursue here a benchmark portfolio approach, constructing benchmark portfolios having the same interest rate risk exposure as a particular stock. By studying the time series of returns of these asset-specific benchmarks, we find: i) Regardless of the industry considered, the interest rate risk benchmarks of German corporations have mostly earned a significantly positive reward. ii) Returns of interest rate risk benchmarks of financial institutions exceeded significantly those of non-financial corporations. iii) An investor willing to bear nothing but the average interest rate risk of German financial institutions would have earned a mean return of about or even exceeding 70% of the corresponding total stock returns. iv) Returns of the interest rate risk benchmarks of the German insurance sector were significantly higher than those of German banks, which seems to contradict conventional market wisdom that insurances hedge interest rate risks.     

Random Walks and Market Efficiency Tests: Evidence from Emerging Equity Markets

We use the multiple variance-ratio test of Chow and Denning (1993) to examine the stochastic properties of local currency- and US dollar-based equity returns in 15 emerging capital markets. The technique is based on the Studentized Maximum Modulus distribution and provides a multiple statistical comparison of variance-ratios, with control of the joint-test's size. We find that the random walk model is consistent with the dynamics of returns in most of the emerging markets analyzed, which contrasts many random walk test results documented with the use of single variance-ratio techniques. Further, a runs test suggests that most of the emerging markets are weak-form efficient. Overall, our results suggest that investors are unlikely to make systematic nonzero profit by using past information in many of the examined markets, thus, investors should predicate their investment strategies on the assumption of random walks. Additionally, our results suggest exchange rate matters in returns' dynamics determination for some of the emerging equity markets we analyzed.     

Forecasting Bull and Bear Markets: Evidence from China

This article extends previous empirical research to forecast Chinese bull and bear stock markets by using three types of binary probit time series models, which are static, autoregressive, and dynamic autoregressive models. This study shows that the dynamic auto regressive model performs the best both in- and out-of-sample. The inflation and market return variables significantly affect the market forecast. The dynamic autoregressive model has successfully forecast the bull and bear markets since 2007. The investment strategy based on this model performs better than the simple buy-and-hold strategy, especially after the Chinese government reformed the non-tradable shares in 2005.     

Research on the Credit Cycle and Business Cycle with a Focus on Ten States from Central,Eastern, and Southeastern Europe

By performing an econometric analysis of the credit cycle and business cycle from an individual as well as a comparative perspective, with a focus on ten relevant economies from the areas of Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe, this research offers a fresh view regarding the importance of banks in promoting long-term economic growth through their lending capacity. The purpose is to better understand the behavior (the short- and medium-term dynamics) of the credit cycle and business cycle and the effects of the interactions between them. The results of this study offer valuable insights for both academics and policymakers and provide a warning to regulators not to overregulate or put too much pressure on banking activity.