China's New Role in the International Financial Architecture

The rise of China is challenging the international financial architecture in a number of ways. This paper highlights three that are of critical importance: the challenge of absorbing massive Chinese savings; the incorporation of China into a cohesive global financial safety net; and the organisation of China's participation in funding the demand for international investment projects. The global financial architecture needs to be reformed. But what role should China play? The paper defines the options open to China and the opportunities and barriers it will face. We argue that China can work with the established economic powers in reforming the existing architecture. At the same time, China seeks cooperation in building new institutions and organisations that fill gaps in the existing arrangements. But no matter how international financial diplomacy plays out in the near term, deep financial and economic reform at home will alone deliver China a central role in the international financial architecture. Domestic reform could also attend to some of the challenges that currently plague China's impact on the system. The success or failure of these domestic reforms will be at the crux of the strength or fragility of the international financial architecture in the years ahead.     

刍议国际投资优惠待遇竞争与评估

国际投资是全球资源配置的重要形式,为吸引外资,各国尤其是发展中国家采取种种激励措施,这在一定程度上引发了激励措施国际竞争.分析评估了国际投资激励措施,研究讨论了激励措施的双边、区域及多边的国际规制,提出逐步完善国际协调机制,最大限度地增进世界各国的经济福利.     

From world factory to world investor: the new way of China integrating into the world

ABSTRACT

This paper argues that outward direct investment (ODI) is replacing international trade as the new way China integrates into the world. Based on two complementary datasets, we document the pattern of Chinese ODI. We argue that the rapid growth of China’s ODI is the result of strong economic development, increasing domestic constraints, and supportive government policies. Compared with trade integration, investment integration involves China more deeply in global business. As a new global investor, China’s ODI in the future is full of opportunities, risks, and challenges. The Chinese government should improve bureaucracy coordination and participate more in designing and maintaining international rules to protect ODI interests.     

中国OFDI推动低碳经济的路径构建

深入分析了我国OFDI与低碳经济的关系,构建了我国OFDI推动低碳经济发展的路径:在低碳契机和低碳要求下,我国的OFDI应从投资动因出发,从投资产业、区位选择和进入方式方面建立低碳路径,引导低碳经济实现跨越式发展。具体而言:以低碳投资巧避发达国家的碳关税和非关税壁垒,用低碳投资化解"贸易隐含碳"的困境,在低碳投资中寻求技术溢出效应;采取跨国并购和国际战略联盟的方式建立低碳经济发展的全球战略框架,以树立低碳大国形象,既实现低碳经济背景下对外直接投资水平的提升,又促进低碳经济在OFDI的引导下实现长足发展。     

海外研发、贸易摩擦与创新绩效：来自中国高科技上市公司的经验证据

海外研发被视为后发国家实现技术赶超的有效路径,现有文献基于经贸自由化的前置条件证实了海外研发提升创新绩效的反哺作用。然而在全球贸易保护主义抬头的背景下,资源要素的自由流动愈发困难,海外研发能否发挥应有的作用尚不得而知。为此,基于中国高科技上市公司的数据,本文探索了中美贸易摩擦如何影响中国企业的海外研发绩效。研究发现,中美贸易摩擦非但没有侵蚀中国企业的海外研发绩效,反而产生倒逼效应,推动中国企业提升投资效率并积累国际投资经验,继而增强了海外研发的反哺作用。通过区分海外研发目的地,本文进一步发现倒逼效应在赴非美国家的样本中更显著。赴美研发受到贸易摩擦的冲击更为直接,稀释了提升投资效率和积累国际化经验所带来的收益。研究结论深化了国际商务理论关于贸易保护和壁垒如何影响跨国企业投资绩效的相关研究,为中国企业在高度不确定的投资环境下如何充分释放海外研发的潜能提供启示。     

A new context for managing overseas direct investment by Chinese state-owned enterprises

Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and their overseas direct investment (ODI) have played an important role in China’s economic development. But the rapid expansion of SOE-dominated ODI has also raised concerns, including about state capitalism and the need for competitive neutrality. This paper considers China’s strategy for managing ODI by its SOEs given a changing context. On the one hand, the Chinese economy is rapidly growing and will soon become the largest economy in the world. China’s role in the world, as well as its global responsibility, is therefore changing. China needs to establish a win-win and harmonious relationship with the rest of the world, and ODI has a role to play in this. On the other hand, China’s growth model is shifting to become greener, more balanced, and innovation-driven. China’s changing international role and the changing growth model have created new imperatives for, and constraints on, ODI by SOEs and reforms to SOEs. This paper aims to examine ODI by Chinese SOEs from the two dimensions of China’s changing role and growth model. It discusses strategies for better managing ODI by Chinese SOEs in the new context that is emerging.     

外商直接投资对中国对外贸易影响的实证分析

本文以中国和其它24个国家或地区的最近3年的外贸和外资的实际数据为基础,用统计计量学方法对外商直接投资(FDI)和国际贸易关系进行实证研究,定量论证了FDI的贸易促进作用,在此基础上,还对中国与各个国家或地区之间贸易规模差异进行了阐述.     

The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank: Multilateralism on the Silk Road

Initial English-language media coverage of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) was framed in terms of strategic rivalry between China and the United States and China’s frustration with slow reform to existing multilateral development banks (MDBs). But the United States, not China, turned the AIIB into a battle for global influence, which the United States lost when key allies joined the bank.

China had a positive agenda for establishing the AIIB, particularly as part of its flagship ‘one belt, one road’ regional initiative. By establishing a multilateral lender for Asian infrastructure, China can de-politicize what can be fraught bilateral financing deals as well as boost its image in the region. This requires the AIIB being a truly multilateral institution.

The AIIB will have to meet the standards of other MDBs, particularly for safeguards, procurement and transparency. The bank will be under international scrutiny and AIIB shareholders should build the bank cautiously, initially focusing on co-financing with other MDBs. The AIIB need not mirror existing lenders, but can learn from their experience and improve on their efficiency. The AIIB will be a learning experience for China and could boost its credentials for future multilateral leadership.     

外商在华投资产业结构特徵

本文围绕外商直接投资（FDI）与产业结构变动展开,重点放在1992—2007年期间。首先回顾了外商直接投资在中国经济建设申的作用,并验证了国际投资理论在中国的适用性。接着系统分析了在外资产业结构和地区产业分布非均衡发展的情况下,分别分析了外资在第一、二、三产业的特点和变动趋势、产业内部特徵,外资产业变动与中国三次产业变动的关联性。最後分析了物资进入中国的地区分布差异,外商投资在东部、中部和西部地区产业结构特徵,以及外资产业与中国产业结构在不同地区变动的关联性和相互作用。     

我国地方省份与俄罗斯农业合作机制研究——以河南为例

我国作为农业大国,要在国际直接投资与国际贸易一体化的时代里求生存求发展,就必须站在世界市场的角度制定长期发展规划。结合近两年来国际农业经济环境带来的新变化、新机遇,我国地方省份农业企业扩大与俄罗斯农业合作,既能有助于加速实施走出去战略,又能对解决返乡农民工创业、就业产生积极影响。因此,在分析两地农业合作动因的基础上,对未来合作机制提出具体构想。     

Global trade flows and economic policy uncertainty

ABSTRACT

This article investigates the impacts of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on global trade flows in gauging international trade developments. We employ a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) trade model, augmented with value-added bilateral trade linkages, that allows for quantifying the effects of economy-specific uncertainty shocks on exports and imports of individual economies. We find substantial spatial propagation in the temporal dynamics of international transmission of shocks amidst the manifestations of cross-border global value chains (GVCs) with China’s accession into the WTO. We provide evidence for the significance of EPU of China and the United States, particularly the latter, in influencing global trade flows. Our results show that while the US impacts can largely be attributed to its indirect trade linkages with other economies, the impacts of China can be relegated more to its direct GVC linkages. The findings have implications on trade protectionist inclinations of the current-term US government and the ongoing efforts of China’s policymakers in steering macroeconomic rebalancing for sustainable growth.     

FDI、产业聚集是否有助于国际竞争力提升*——基于中国制造业PVAR模型的实证研究

本文运用联合国商品贸易数据库2004-2013年共十年数据,对我国27个制造业国际竞争力、外商直接投资程度、产业集聚度进行测算,并利用静态面板回归和动态向量自回归PVAR模型对三者之间的内在作用关系进行实证对比分析。结果发现：（1）中国整体制造业国际竞争力稳步提升,但具备较强国际竞争力的还主要集中在劳动密集型行业,而中高技术行业是中国参与全球竞争形成优势最有潜力的行业;（2）我国引入外商直接投资占比变化不大,但其总额提升速度迅猛;（3）我国制造业的平均产业集聚程度呈上升趋势,但其大小程度及变化趋势在不同行业之间有着明显差别;（4）静态面板回归结果表明,FDI渗入程度越高,产业集聚程度越大,越有利于制造业国际竞争力的提升,此外,FDI与产业集聚间存在交互效应继而正向影响国际竞争力的提升;（5）向量自回归（PVAR）模型也显示FDI、产业聚集、国际竞争力间存在长期稳定的相关关系。     

浅析国际直接投资自由化进程中的中国外资政策

随着全球经济一体化的演进，国际直接投资日趋自由化流动。国际直接投资自由化的兴起在全球经济的增长和国际分工深化的进程中发挥了越来越重要的作用。我国是利用国际直接投资的大国，目前正处于向市场经济转轨的关键时期，经济体制和市场结构还不完善，如何在确保国家经济安全的前提下，推进国际直接投资自由化进程，积极合理地扩大引资规模，应成为人们关注的焦点问题。因此，本文试图探寻国际直接投资自由化的经济机理，总结出国际投资自由化的有效制度安排对现行制度进行调整，以期更好地把握和指导我国改革开放实践及进一步融入国际直接投资自由化进程。     

国际研发投资与我国城市经济发展的空间规律和关联分析

随着国际投资方向和结构的变化,国际研发投资对投资地科技、经济发展的贡献作用越来越大。通过在多个空间层面,对外资研发机构数、外资研发支出等与我国经济发展的空间组织及关联关系研究,结果发现:国际研发投资空间分布与我国区域经济发展水平高度相关,与城市群发育也呈现出空间上的耦合性;在市域层面有典型代表性研发集聚性城市,国际研发投资已构成上海城市经济发展的Granger原因,不过经济发展对吸纳国际研发投资的促进作用还不够,并不是吸纳国际研发投资的因。     

Does the reduction of regional trade policy uncertainty increase Chinese enterprises' outward foreign direct investment? Evidence from the China−ASEAN Free Trade Area

Regional trade policy uncertainty is an important factor affecting enterprises' outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). This paper uses the China?ASEAN Free Trade Area as the research object. The research uses the “China Industrial Firm Database” from 2001 to 2013 and the “List of Chinese Overseas Investment Enterprises (Institutions)” to match micro‐enterprise data. Using the difference‐in‐difference (DID) approach to construct quasi‐natural experiments, we study the impact of the reduction in regional trade policy uncertainty on Chinese enterprises' OFID. The results show that the free trade agreement strategy implemented by China has reduced the regional trade policy uncertainty, which has had a significant positive impact on Chinese enterprises' OFDI. The establishment of the China?ASEAN Free Trade Area has significantly increased Chinese enterprises' OFID in ASEAN countries. The study further finds that enterprises of different ownership types, in different regions and of different factor intensities display heterogeneous effects in this process. The empirical results of the paper provide new ideas for promoting OFDI from the standpoint of reducing regional trade policy uncertainty, and also provide a new perspective for explaining the increase in foreign investment in China in recent years.     

THE IMPACT OF TRADE AND INVESTMENT AGREEMENTS ON AUSTRALIA'S INWARD FDI FLOWS

International trade and investment agreements are one of the primary instruments of global financial liberalisation. They are enacted to enhance the flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) between signatories by reducing regulatory barriers to investment; promoting stable host investment environments; and guaranteeing investors against non‐commercial risk. As a net capital importer, Australia has sought to attract FDI through participation in such accords since the early 1980s. This paper examines the determinants of Australia's inward FDI flows—focussing specifically on the effects of trade and investment agreements. Using panel data, we find that both bilateral trade and bilateral and multilateral investment agreements attract FDI flows into Australia, thereby indicating that the policy of enticing FDI through participation in these accords is quite possibly effective.     

我国FDI和OFDI技术溢出效应的实证检验

对国内外有关国际直接投资渠道的技术溢出的研究文献进行了梳理,测算了1994—2008年我国以外商直接投资和对外直接投资反映的外国R&D资本存量,并建立了R&D溢出回归模型,对其进行回归分析。研究结果显示:国内R&D资本和外商直接投资对我国全要素生产率的提升具有促进作用,且国内R&D资本的作用更大;对外直接投资对我国全要素生产率的提升有微弱的阻碍作用。因此,在政策层面上应继续加大国内R&D支出,加强外商直接投资,积极开展对外直接投资,以推动我国技术进步。     

外资非正常撤离的成因、影响及法律对策

2008年金融危机的渐行渐远并没有给全球经济带来恢复的迹象,随之而来的美国与欧洲债务危机又加重了国际经济形势的严峻性。在这种形势下,我国出现的外资非正常撤离潮亦呈现愈演愈烈之势。外资非正常撤离对我国的经济虽不是致命之伤,但却是持续之痛,必须加以重视。根据我国的实际情况,对外资非正常撤离应采取法律对策,从而保证外资非正常撤离的有法可依,追诉可行,降低外资非正常撤离的机率。     

贸易顺差、资本流入与中国外汇储备规模增长

本文通过协整检验和Granger因果关系检验,对影响我国外汇储备规模快速增长的诸因素进行了实证分析。分析结果表明,（1）我国外汇储备规模与年出口额、外国证券投资、外商直接投资、外债还本付息额具有长期的稳定关系。（2）年出口规模与外汇储备规模之间具有单向因果关系,是造成外汇储备快速增长的主要原因。（3）外商直接投资、外国证券投资和外汇储备规模具有正向相关关系,其影响强度较弱;而外债还本付息额与外汇储备呈负向相关关系。（4）1986年～2009年间,贸易顺差对外汇储备规模增长的贡献度约为68%,而资本流入约为32%。本文基于实证分析结果认为,采取贸易项目收支平衡战略以减少外汇储备过度增长是最佳的选择。     

金融危机后中国对外直接投资的海外利益研究

2000年以来,特别是金融危机以来,我国对境外的直接投资迅速增长,已成为中国海外利益的重要组成部分。本文对2008-2009年间我国对外直接投资和所包含的海外利益进行了分析,并依据对商务部《对外投资合作国别(地区)指南(2009版)》系列报告的文本解读,对中国非金融类对外直接投资的国家利益进行了分析。分析表明:(1)我国对外直接投资增长较快,但目前对国家利益贡献较少,且存在相当程度的脆弱性和高风险因素;(2)我国对外直接投资中的海外利益部分尚为弱小,且在目标产业分布上过于集中;(3)我国对外直接投资的损失率极高,外部因素明显。