Supply side constraints in the Israeli housing market—The impact of state owned land

House prices in Israel have risen since 2008 by as much as 98%. Much of this increase is attributed to low levels of housing supply and housing supply elasticities. In Israel land is frequently owned by the state. This results in heavy government involvement in the housing market through the control of land supply via land tenders. This paper estimates the impact of state owned land on the Israeli housing market focusing on these unusual conditions of land supply. A model for the creation of new housing units is proposed. This incorporates land tenders, enabling the estimation of housing supply dynamics with an accurate measure of public land supply. The model is tested using regional panel data which facilitates the dynamic estimation of national and local supply elasticities and regional spillovers. The paper uses novel data sources resulting in a panel of 45 spatial units over a span of 11 years (2002–2012). Due to the nonstationary nature of the data, spatial panel cointegration methods are used. The empirical results yield estimates of housing supply price elasticities and elasticities with respect to land supply. Results show that housing supply is positively impacted by governmental decisions but the impact is low. Supply elasticity with regard to government land tenders stands at around 0.05 over the short run and 0.08 over the long run. Government policy of offering land in low demand areas and fixing minimum-price tendering does not seem to affect housing supply. Policy implications point to the need for more sensitive management of the delicate balance between public and private source of land in order to mitigate the excesses of demand shocks.     

土地供应管制、住房供给弹性与房价周期波动

研究目的:分析土地供应管制通过住房供给弹性渠道对房价周期波动的影响。研究方法:理论分析,计量检验。研究结果:(1)土地供应管制影响房价波动的渠道是:土地供应管制的宽松和收紧通过供地规模、用地成本以及市场预期影响住房供给弹性,再经由供求关系和投机效应的传导影响房价波动。(2)土地供应管制可以解释45%的城市间住房供给弹性差异;地方政府不同松紧程度的策略性供地行为导致住房供给弹性与城市经济发达程度负相关,中央偏向中西部的土地配额管制政策导致东部城市住房供给弹性低于中西部城市。(3)住房供给弹性决定了房价周期波动,并具有非对称性效应:在市场景气繁荣阶段,供给弹性越小,房价涨幅就越大;在市场不景气阶段,房价跌幅与供给弹性的关系存在方向上的不确定性。研究结论:土地和住房领域供给侧改革的一个重点是改革供地制度和调整供地政策,使土地供应与住房需求在时空维度上相匹配,将有利于熨平房价波动,降低市场风险。     

Planning policy,housing density and consumer preferences

Due to a combination of government planning policies and market pressures in England in the period 2000–2008, there was an increase in the construction of flats and high-density developments and a decline in the construction of houses. In this paper, an analysis of the effects of these policy constraints is undertaken. Using hedonic pricing models, we test for a non-linear relationship between house prices and residential density in England. Consumers prefer houses over flats and detached properties over semi-detached and terraced (i.e. lower density suburban areas). However, both low-density, detached-dominant areas and high-density, flat-dominant areas attracted a premium over medium density areas and the relative size of these price differences vary between different housing market areas. In cities outside London, we consistently see a convex relationship between price and density, whereas a concave relationship between price and density is consistently observed in London. This suggests a different form of relationship between density and house prices in large urban conurbation areas, compared to more typical provincial cities. The conclusions we draw are that in the correct context, high density may be viewed positively but a single planning policy is not appropriate and it should be tailored to suit local market needs.     

Supported housing in global austerity: Local providers fears for the future in Gloucestershire,England

Shelter is a key component of an individual’s well-being and as a consequence is an area of policy development that cuts across national policies including welfare, health and social. Supported housing is a sub-set of the wider category of social housing, offering support services intended to help people with a range of challenges live as independently as possible. This paper is based on case study research in an English county that has a diverse range of rural and urban contexts. The analysis draws on evidence gathered mainly from interviews with decision-makers representing the largest supported housing providers in the region across a range of specialisms and needs provision. The research demonstrates that supported housing professionals have a range of concerns for the future of supported housing provision. Respondents reported that reforms to welfare payments and funding of housing support is creating great concern for the organisations and the fracturing of services meant it was increasingly difficult to offer comprehensive coverage in the county. However, the housing professionals also discussed a range of innovative and entrepreneurial responses to these uncertainties. This paper concludes that on the one hand there is a real and pressing threat of increased residualisation within the sector and within services for these most vulnerable groups reduced in both their scope and coverage. While on the other hand, those organisations able to operate more flexibly, and who were communicating effectively with local authorities, felt they had the best chance to respond to uncertainty in the policy landscape.     

Property rights and housing prices: An empirical study of small property rights housing in Shenzhen,China

Small Property Rights Housing (SPRH) is an important part of informal housing in China. SPRH is defined as housing developed with collective land ownership that is then sold to outside homebuyers such as non-indigenous villagers. This housing practice is legally forbidden and comes without formal titles. SPRH is popular in big Chinese cities where formal housing prices are constantly rising and increasingly unaffordable for many urban residents. However, research on SPRH is rare. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the effects (or the lack thereof) of de-jure property rights on housing prices by using the empirical case of Shenzhen where SPRH and FPRH estates constitute the main sources of urban housing for its residents. We collected both SPRH and formal Full Property Right Housing (FPRH) data in the Shenzhen housing market and adopted the Boundary Fixed Effect method and matching strategy to mitigate the bias caused by unobservable location and neighborhood factors. This empirical study shows that the lack of de-jure property rights has negative and significant effects on housing prices. The average housing price for SPRH apartments is, ceteris paribus, 52.82% lower than for formal FPRH apartments. Also, the premium of property rights varies across two administrative regions with different locations and economic environments, and the premium decreases as the age of the building increases.     

An optimization-based framework for housing subsidy policy in China: Theory and practice of housing vouchers

Rapid urbanization has transformed cities by improving the quality and quantity of production factors, such as population, land, and capital gain optimization. However, housing problems of the floating population (liudong renkou) have seriously increased during the urbanization process. This study reviews the history of indemnificatory housing development in China and explore its effectiveness in the context of sustainable urbanization. Difficulties in the housing subsidy policy are identified, and an optimization-based framework for housing subsidy system that focusing on housing voucher is designed with the consideration of capitation grant, occasion for implementation, cost estimation, implementation procedure, and supplementary policy. The appropriateness of the housing voucher policy was tested on Zhejiang Province, and expert interview was conducted to evaluate the proposed housing subsidy system. This study provides an effective alternative housing subsidy policy which can facilitate the settling down of floating population in cities and also contribute to sustainable urbanization.     

基于不同住房属性视角的土地供应规模对房价的影响

研究目的：基于住房消费品和投资品的双重属性视角分析住宅用地供应规模对房地产市场的差异化影响。研究 方法：理论分析、固定效应面板回归模型、门槛回归模型。研究结果：（1）上一年住宅用地供应面积增加 1% 可使当年 住房竣工面积显著增加 0.17%,弱于房地产投资资金对住房竣工面积所产生的 0.25% 的提升作用,该结果一定程度上 验证了住宅用地供应与住房供给之间存在生产函数渠道的影响路径;（2）基于实际房价与租金还原房价的偏离程度测 算,发现不同房地产市场投资热度下,住宅用地供应对房价影响存在双重门槛效应,门槛值分别为 2.05 和 2.92;（3）低 投资热度下,上一年住宅用地供应规模的增加可显著降低当年的房价,而高投资热度下则会起到推高房价的作用。研 究结论：住房作为消费品和投资品,存在不同的价格机制和供求规律。当住房市场以投资品属性为主导时,需求曲线 向上的刚性走势违反了一般的商品需求规律,供给曲线的右移将导致均衡价格越来越高。     

The impact of different land-supplying channels on the supply of housing

As Hong Kong's property prices have been skyrocketing particularly in the last several years, housing has become even less affordable than it was prior to the Asian Financial Crisis, compromising Hong Kong residents’ living standards. The general public mostly blames the supply-side actors (i.e. property developers and/or the government) for such a predicament, and vociferously demands for higher supply of residential flats both in the private and public sectors. The government, in response, proposes the supply of more residential land, among other measures, in addressing the public's demands, with the notion of “higher land supply results in higher housing supply”. Nonetheless, there are other channels, other than land sale, which provide land for housing construction, such as land exchange, which are usually overlooked in public debates. In the light of this, this paper aims to investigate the respective impact of land sale and land exchange on Hong Kong's housing supply. The findings, interestingly, show that land exchange has a much larger long-run impact on housing supply than land sale does; that housing supply responds to short-run fluctuations in property price; and that best lending rate has neither a short- nor long-run relationship with the supply of housing. The reason behind the finding regarding land sale and land exchange is that, the former is initiated by the government which overlooks property developers’ profit incentives and development strategies, while the latter essentially reflects that a particular land site is ripe for development (i.e. profitable) from the developers’ standpoint. Some implications relating to the recently announced government land policy measures are also discussed.     

适应乡村振兴战略的新型农村住房制度构建设想

在新时期经济社会结构转型和城乡发展关系重塑的背景下,农村住房制度对促进城乡要素流动和助力乡村振兴具有重要意义。本文通过对多个宅基地制度改革试点地区的政策研究、实地调查和访谈,对农民工城乡生活状况的问卷调研,深入分析了我国农村住房发展现状和存在的问题,探究建立适应乡村振兴战略和农村住房需求的新型农村住房制度的意义。基于乡村振兴战略、住房需求层次和农村住房双重属性的理论认识,阐释建立农村新型住房制度的理论意义。从宅基地制度的局限性入手,发现宅基地所固有的成员权属性、福利属性及权能模糊性,是造成制度桎梏与现实发展的诸多矛盾的根源所在。据此,本文提出了构建以满足多层次住房需求的农村住房供应体系及与之相适应的农村住宅用地供应体系为主的新型农村住房制度,并对其影响、效果以及试点实践的可行性进行讨论。新型农村住房制度的建立,为从根本上解决农村住房发展困境,推进乡村振兴战略实施提供可行路径。     

保障房建设用地方式比较及改革的初步设想

因多种保障房形式并存,且供地方式存在差异化,对使用年限、价格（租金）、建筑面积等方面的要求也不同,对能否上市交易和退出机制的规定大相径庭,导致保障房建设中存在各种各样的矛盾和问题,主要表现在：（1）租赁型和出售型的保障房之间对接困难,不能体现效率原则;（2）不同类型保障房在享有土地增值收益方面大不相同,不能体现公平原则。辽宁省实例验证进一步表明,我国保障房建设改革势在必行。当前,应统一保障房建设用地方式,实现保障房的土地权益均衡化,以提高保障房的资源配置效率,实现社会公平。     

住宅投资、要素结构与配置效率——基于北京市各区县的实证研究

研究目的:估算各类资本存量、生产函数要素弹性系数和要素边际报酬率,实证研究住宅价格及其资本存量的内涵型和外延型资源配置机制,考察它们对要素配置效率和全要素生产率扭曲程度的影响。研究方法:理论模型法,面板校正标准误法(PCSE)。研究结果:(1)住宅开发主要通过投资而非价格产生影响,抵押担保效应、要素挤出效应和技术创新效应很显著,其他效应不显著;(2)住宅资本存量对要素配置效率和全要素生产率扭曲的影响也显著,而住宅价格的影响面和显著性都较低。研究结论:住宅资本存量比住宅价格的资源配置效应更强,都恶化了非住宅业资源配置扭曲度。因此,要盘活存量、优化增量和管好总量,完善住宅调控基础性制度安排,科学测度和控制住宅价格及增速。     

供需系统视角下北京市集体土地建设租赁住房政策效果仿真研究

研究目的：基于系统论视角构建北京市集体土地建设租赁住房政策效果仿真模型,剖析政策运行影响机理,预测政策试点未来实施效果并寻找优化路径,以期形成可复制可参考试点经验。研究方法：运用系统动力学构建仿真模型模拟压力型、需求型、要素型、市场型4种情景下政策运行效果。研究结果：（1）从供给和需求两方面构建集体土地建设租赁住房政策效果仿真模型,供给侧包括政策供给子系统、项目供给子系统、土地供给子系统,需求侧为承租人需求子系统;（2）至2030年,北京市集体土地建设租赁住房土地供应量可以达到2 000 hm2左右,建设项目150个左右;（3）对政策效果的影响方面,政府压力因素是最主要正向的影响因素,其次为市场因素、承租人需求因素、土地供给因素。研究结论：加大投融资政策扶持,综合运用政策、市场、要素、需求等途径,激励市场主体参与积极性,保障集体土地建设租赁住房政策有效落实。     

The growth and performance of the Northern Ireland housing market

Summary

The complexity of the housing process is discussed in realtion to home ownership levels, the rate of new residential development and the performance of the private market in Northern Ireland where public sector led initiatives have been instrumental in boosting owner occupation levels. The availability of a co‐ownership route to house purchase is one key aspect of housing policy in the province. This has had beneficial effects most notably through the encouragement of a high level of new residential development, however there are also negative impacts of over saturation and market distortion.     

Residential development on gardens in England: Their role in providing sustainable housing supply

Development of garden land has attracted political and media attention in recent years, yet there remained uncertainty over whether the issue was nationally or locally significant. Gardens are not a land use in their own right and have no special status in planning law. This enabled them to be considered, until very recently, as previously developed land according to The Brownfield Guide (English Partnerships, 2006). This allowed garden sites to be developed for new housing, thereby helping some authorities to meet their targets for residential development on brownfield land as monitored through their strategic housing land availability assessment (SHLAA). This paper reports the findings of a survey of local planning authorities carried out in 2009 and focused on planning applications and permissions on garden sites over a five year period ending 31 March 2008. The results reveal that garden development was a significant issue in only certain regional contexts, South East, London and West Midlands, and its actual and potential contribution to the local housing stock was variable. Where other forms of brownfield land were in short supply, garden sites might be crucial in meeting targets. The paper examines the policy framework underpinning such applications and shows that where local planning authorities had specific policies on the subject in place they were able to reach more robust decisions on garden site planning applications and there was less likelihood of first stage rejection decisions being overturned on appeal.     

Spatial and temporal impacts on building depreciation

This article explores the relationship between new housing and the existing housing stock in terms of an urban market value hierarchy, considering the importance of the concept of depreciation, as influenced by three factors: the age, location and quality of the building. Based on a sample from the Almond area of Madrid City Centre, the research considers many variables and applies an adapted appraisal approach termed differential depreciation to analyse the evidence of real estate values and the influence of spatial and temporal location factors. The study of the role of depreciation in the value of housing used in this research provides researchers with objective criteria on the functioning of the urban land market. This shows that the relationship between depreciation and the need for renovation is not linear, but instead follows identifiable patterns linked to the era of construction rather than solely the age of the building.     

The role of land planning policies in supporting housing affordability: The case of the Gaza Strip

The Gaza Strip suffers from a limited amount of land compared to the population growth rate. This imposes several challenges on urban planners in managing housing land in a way that protects housing affordability, especially for the low-income category. In general, housing in the Gaza Strip is unaffordable, for several reasons, including a recent abnormal rise in urban land prices. The study investigated this issue based on a survey of local housing specialists in addition to residents. The study found that to support housing affordability in Gaza, planning solutions that ensure efficient use of urban land in the first place need to be implemented. Furthermore, two parallel actions are required: (i) to implement measures that increase housing land supply and improve security of land tenure; and (ii) to establish a robust and effective housing finance system that fits the socio-economic situation in the Gaza Strip.     

供求关系对大都市商品住宅价格作用机理的分析--以南京市为例

研究目的以商品住宅价格水平及涨幅较为典型的南京市为例,探讨供求关系对商品住宅价格作用的机理.研究方法理论分析和实证分析相结合.研究结果土地供给、商品住宅投资与竣工面积等因素形成的商品住宅供给,与新增人口、城市拆改和改善居住条件等形成的商品住宅自住性需求和投资性需求比为0.48,供求矛盾是拉动南京市商品住宅价格上涨的根源.研究结论供求关系是房价变化的主要因素和决定因素,房地产价格形成主要遵循非价值价格理论,生产成本(地价等)只是房地产价格的构成要素,对房地产价格的作用是有限的.     

经济适用房划拨用地补贴与货币补贴的福利、效率与产权分析

研究目的:针对理论界对经济适用房划拨用地补贴的存废之争,深入探讨中国经济适用房划拨用地改革前景。研究方法:福利经济学、新古典经济学和产权理论相结合。研究结果:经济适用房划拨用地补贴的政策绩效取决于中低收入家庭的住房需求价格弹性,在中低收入家庭经济适用房需求对价格富有弹性的条件下,土地划拨相对于直接的货币补贴而言,是一种合意的制度安排。同时,市场主体某些看似败德的行为,客观上有助于减少经济适用房划拨用地带来的福利净损失。     

Visual amenity and housing in the countryside-Scottish local planning authority approaches

In recent years, farming has lost some of its former pre-eminence in Britain's rural economy. At the same time, there have been increasing and often conflicting new demands on countryside resources. In such a situation, planning has been encouraged to adopt a more flexible approach to development. The challenge for planning today is to allow development and yet at the same time protect the visual amenity of the countryside. A recent study has examined how Scottish planning authorities have responded to this challenge in relation to housing in the countryside. The study found that there was some variation in approach to housing development in the countryside throughout Scotland. A number of authorities, especially those in remote rural areas, were prepared to adopt a relaxed approach to housing development. Nevertheless many authorities continue with a strong protectionist stance on the location and scale of housing in the countryside. Moreover, the emphasis currently being placed on attempts to influence the design of housing introduces a new dimension in local authorities' attempts to safeguard the visual amenity of the countryside.