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1.
《Journal of Property Research》2012,29(1):77-101
As the Global Financial Crisis has shown, housing market bubbles can have widespread economic consequences. Housing submarkets matter but economic theory is divided on how the spread of prices between low- and high-value segments varies with the market cycle and few studies examine the issue. This paper addresses that gap, using a detailed data-set of over one million property listings for Ireland from 2006 to 2012. Using hedonic methods, controlling for time and attributes, standardised prices for over 1100 sales zones and 300 lettings zones are calculated and then compared for mid-2007 and mid-2012. There are four key findings. Although, firstly, the spread of prices across different property sizes increased significantly between bubble and crash, the spread of rents, secondly, fell. There was, thirdly, at most a small fall in the spread of both prices and rents across space. Lastly, in both periods, the spread of rents was constrained relative to that of prices, particularly in the upper tail. The evidence from Ireland indicates that the relative gap between low- and high-value segments grew in the crash. This is important for macro-prudential policy. There are also local implications, as Ireland deals with legacy supply issues, predominantly in low-value segments. 相似文献
2.
《Journal of Property Research》2012,29(3):199-213
Summary That the public regulation of property supply should affect property prices, risk and returns is to be expected. But how this works has not been adequately researched. The framework for doing this should include the following: a treatment of the three markets (development, investment and consumer) separately and in combination: an analysis of the effects, not just on prices, but on risks and returns; an analysis in the long‐ as well as the short‐term; an analysis at the level of the ‘industry’ as well as the ‘firm'; an analysis at the level of the whole country; an ‘institutional; approach to economics. A study of the housing and the office markets in the Netherlands suggests that the two most important questions concerning the public regulation of supply are: does it stimulate or restrict supply and, is regulation steady and predictable, or unstable? It is suggested in this paper that the stimulation or restriction of supply affects the general level of property prices, while steady or unpredictable regulation affects the level of return on property. 相似文献
3.
《Journal of Property Research》2012,29(4):301-320
This paper examines house price diffusion with the Republic of Ireland and between the Republic and Northern Ireland. The results show that a large degree of diffusion takes place, particularly from Dublin to the other regions, in a manner that is similar and consistent with the UK ripple effect. The results would also support previous evidence that the boom in the Irish housing market in the late 1990s was more evident and led by movements in the Dublin market. Evidence of the importance of contiguous and non‐contiguous areas is also evident beyond the Dublin effect. The results would also appear to support the view that the Northern Irish market is more linked with the housing market in the Republic than with the rest of the UK. 相似文献
4.
Helen X. H. Bao 《中国土地科学》2013,(9)
研究目的：分析英国土地规划政策对房地产市场供给的影响。研究方法：应用政策分析方法总结英国土地规划政策特点,特别是分析规划许可证制度对房地产供给的影响。研究结果：（1）英国政府通过土地规划政策对房地产市场进行间接调控,能够有效控制各类房地产产品的供应数量。但是调控在市场上升阶段存在较强的滞后效应;在市场低迷时,调整的功效甚微。（2）英国政府通过土地规划许可证的签发,要求房地产开发商负担起建设保障性住房的任务,这一政策保证了保障性住房的质量和数量,促进低收入人群融入社区,有利于社会和谐发展,但是房地产开发商的成本被推高,商品房供给减少,最终导致商品房价格偏高。研究结论：中央和地方政府可以灵活利用土地规划政策对市场进行调控,但是政府行为通常会带来意想不到的“成本”,应随时调整政策,保证政策有效实施的情况下降低“计划外”成本。 相似文献
5.
研究目的:分析土地供应管制通过住房供给弹性渠道对房价周期波动的影响。研究方法:理论分析,计量检验。研究结果:(1)土地供应管制影响房价波动的渠道是:土地供应管制的宽松和收紧通过供地规模、用地成本以及市场预期影响住房供给弹性,再经由供求关系和投机效应的传导影响房价波动。(2)土地供应管制可以解释45%的城市间住房供给弹性差异;地方政府不同松紧程度的策略性供地行为导致住房供给弹性与城市经济发达程度负相关,中央偏向中西部的土地配额管制政策导致东部城市住房供给弹性低于中西部城市。(3)住房供给弹性决定了房价周期波动,并具有非对称性效应:在市场景气繁荣阶段,供给弹性越小,房价涨幅就越大;在市场不景气阶段,房价跌幅与供给弹性的关系存在方向上的不确定性。研究结论:土地和住房领域供给侧改革的一个重点是改革供地制度和调整供地政策,使土地供应与住房需求在时空维度上相匹配,将有利于熨平房价波动,降低市场风险。 相似文献
6.
住房问题关乎国计民生,房价成为影响城乡发展差距变动的重要因素。文章聚焦房价上涨对城乡家庭财产性收入差距变动的影响,并基于2005—2018年我国31个省级行政区域面板数据,采用固定效应模型与动态面板系统GMM估计方法,对房价如何影响城乡财产性收入差距变动进行实证研究。研究发现,房价上涨会显著拉大城乡财产性收入差距,并且这种影响存在区域差异性。文章认为应调整预防房价上涨的相关政策,落实中央"房住不炒"定位,以缓解房价上涨导致的城乡家庭财产性收入差距过大现象,助力推进社会高质量发展。 相似文献
7.
房地产市场是经济市场和金融市场的重要组成部分,由于房地产产业特征决定房地产市场在国民经济中的地位和作用,是构建和谐社会的重要内容。目前因整个房地产市场已融入经济市场和金融市场,投资性和投机性需求是抬高房价的重要原因,应回归市场理性,采取多种方式促进房地产市场平稳健康发展,达到人人都有房住的目的。 相似文献
8.
玉米已成为我国播种面积最大的粮食作物,同时玉米在主要粮食作物中比例也不断攀升。文章利用2003～2010年河北省农户玉米种植的动态面板数据,建立了农业供给反应（适应性预期）模型,采用广义矩阵估计方法（GMM）,对影响河北省9个县534户农民的玉米供给和调整的价格、政策以及气候等因素进行了动态面板实证分析和相关探讨。基于农户玉米生产供给反应模型的理论框架,推导出研究所采用的动态面板适应性预期模型。结果表明,首先,河北省农户的玉米种植面积对于价格变化很敏感,玉米种植面积的长期价格弹性较大。其次,补贴政策对于农户种植玉米有一定的积极促进作用,但是农户对于补贴额的反应程度很小。再次,生产成本投入增加会制约河北省农户玉米种植。最后,降水对于保证玉米生产具有重要作用。因此,稳定玉米价格、继续加大政策支持力度、完善水利基础设施补贴力度对于保证河北省玉米生产和供给会产生积极促进作用。 相似文献
9.
《Journal of Property Research》2012,29(4):343-366
ABSTRACTThe primary purpose of this paper is to examine the dynamic and Granger causal (inter) relationships between house prices and to empirically assess the co-movement in-house prices across different property types within Northern Ireland (NI). The Johansen cointegration, Granger causality tests and vector error correction model are applied to quarterly house price data for the NI housing market between Q1 1995 and Q2 2018 to determine whether price transmissions are propagated contemporaneously into both short-term and long-term price adjustments. The findings show the stylised facts of lead–lag relationships across property types in NI using long-term Granger causality tests that the performance of the Apartment sector systematically and consistently lagged behind all other residential property segments over the period. Indeed, the results indicate that there are obvious market filtration transmission pricing signals in operation in a Granger-causal fashion. Property price signals are observed to be transmitted from the more liquid owner-occupier-led Detached and Semi-detached segments to the Apartment segment, but not vice versa. 相似文献
10.
Against the background of strained housing markets, economic, social and ecological targets (e.g. energy-based modernization) may conflict with each other. Against this backdrop, municipal leasehold approaches appear to be interesting. Considering the case of Germany, the legislator designed leasehold rights as an instrument to tackle a variety of targets. However, compliance with the Tinbergen rule suggests that municipalities should focus on economic targets while using leasehold approaches. Nonetheless, they should waive any exploitation of their monopolistic position in the local land market in favor of ground leases that are in line with the capital market. In doing so, public leasehold approaches may create an added value which may help to ease the conflicts between social and ecological targets. In this context, social and ecological targets shouldn’t be pursued by the municipality itself, but in cooperation with suitable partners not looking to maximize their risk/return requirements. However, a number of obstacles have to be removed before leasehold rights can be used in this way. 相似文献
11.
《Journal of Property Research》2012,29(4):323-345
This study evaluates residential property as an institutional asset group in two European countries (Switzerland and the Netherlands). These are countries where housing is the main institutional property asset group, with institutional property portfolio allocations of over 52% and 50% respectively. Two criteria were used to evaluate residential property as an institutional asset group. First, the size of the private rented stock potentially available for institutional investors must be sufficiently large in order to provide significant diversification benefits. Second, in terms of risk and return, housing must offer good mean‐variance performance. Direct residential property is compared with other asset groups: shares (domestic and European indices), government bonds and indirect non‐residential property. A bootstrap analysis (Efron, 1979; Liang et al., 1996; Ziobrowski el al., 1997) is employed to estimate confidence intervals for the optimum level of residential property in mixed‐asset portfolios. The paper concludes, on balance, that there is a case for a residential property component within portfolios in these two countries. 相似文献
12.
城市住房用地供应政策的问题与对策研究——以南京市为例 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
近年来，国家及有关部门将土地供应政策定位为国家最重要的宏观经济管理手段之一。这一政策在抑制住房用地供应过大、经济增长过热等方面起到了积极地作用，但从一定程度上看，由于还处于起步阶段，难免会存在误区和盲点。本文正是在这样的情况下，通过分析住房供应政策在南京市实施的过程中存在的问题，分析其原因，从而为优化城市住房用地供应结构、完善土地供应机制、金融政策、加强土地供后监管等方面提出了相应建议。 相似文献
13.
In this article, we estimate a rural household model that allows specific tastes for working on-farm and can fit the data as well as the general model of Lopez . We use two samples that are matched by individual characteristics and adopt the method for matched surveys proposed by Arellano and Meghir . We replicate using French data, the empirical finding of Elhorst who reports evidence that implicit wages of on-farm family labor are significantly below off-farm wages. We then provide estimates of the lower bounds for preferences for on-farm work for males and females which are significant and positive. 相似文献
14.
Dolores Rey Javier Calatrava Alberto Garrido 《The Australian journal of agricultural and resource economics》2016,60(1):130-154
Water supply instability is one of the main risks faced by irrigation districts and farmers. Water procurement decision optimisation is essential in order to increase supply reliability and reduce costs. Water markets, such as spot purchases or water supply option contracts, can make this decision process more flexible. We analyse the potential interest in an option contract for an irrigation district that has access to several water sources. We apply a stochastic recursive mathematical programming model to simulate the water procurement decisions of an irrigation district's board operating in a context of water supply uncertainty in south‐eastern Spain. We analyse what role different option contracts could play in securing its water supply. Results suggest that the irrigation district would be willing to accept the proposed option contract in most cases subject to realistic values of the option contract financial terms. Of nine different water sources, desalination and the option contract are the main substitutes, where the use of either depends on the contract parameters. The contract premium and optioned volume are the variables that have a greater impact on the irrigation district's decisions. 相似文献
15.
Sarah Wheeler Henning Bjornlund Martin Shanahan Alec Zuo 《The Australian journal of agricultural and resource economics》2008,52(1):37-55
Bid prices for the demand and supply of water allocations between 2001 and 2007, and average monthly prices paid for water allocations from 1997 to 2007 in the Goulburn–Murray Irrigation District are analysed to estimate price elasticities. Based on bid prices, the price elasticity of demand for water allocations appears highly elastic, with elasticities strongly influenced by the season and drought. The price elasticity of supply for water allocations is also elastic, albeit less elastic than demand. Using actual prices paid, water demand is negatively related to price and is inelastic, and appears to be most influenced by demand the previous month, drought and seasonality factors. 相似文献
16.
The economic liberalization process has exerted acute pressures on Local Food Systems in the Andes, driving their insertion into the cash economy in the context of globalization. Simultaneously, networks of barter markets have emerged in the Andean highlands. An assessment of the role of these markets in conserving the multi-functionality of local agro-ecosystems was conducted in the Lares Valley (Cusco, Peru). We showed that barter markets are endogenous, integrated, non-monetary economic responses that allow for the conservation of agro-ecosystem multi-functionality through the recuperation of control over local production modes. Their function is to buffer cash economy imperfections while satisfying local food needs. The combination of monetary and non-monetary trading is a redefinition of the economic system within the ecological and social limits of the agro-ecosystem. A participatory action research approach enabled the collecting and unravelling of the incommensurability of values associated with the role of barter markets. 相似文献
17.
《Journal of Property Research》2012,29(1):41-61
Summary This paper rethinks the meaning of ‘involvement’ in local plans and considers the significance of the type of site that a landowner owns. Case studies of urban fringe locations in southern England, where a local plan was in preparation, suggest that some landowners do not need to get involved in the formal local plan process in order to be successful or influential in the policy process. In the interests of effective implementation, local planning authorities may incorporate some owners of large sites. Other landowners, however, may have to make representations to promote their interests. 相似文献
18.
We estimate the impact of removing an export subsidy on the local economies of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, exploiting the large regional variation of a 1995 reform. We find that the loss of the subsidy resulted in significantly lower farm value‐added, farm asset values and local non‐farm employment. The results suggest that the subsidy removal had detrimental spillover effects on the local non‐agricultural economy that varied spatially across the Prairies. The point estimates suggest that the marginal effect of the subsidy loss on non‐agricultural employment was five times as large as those obtained from traditional estimates of the multiplier effect. 相似文献
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20.
我国实施土地储备的目标之一就是有利于政府对土地市场的集中统一管理,从而实现土地买方市场向卖方市场的转变,增加政府调控土地市场的能力。文章在分析土地储备实施效果以及土地供给、地价和房价的关系的基础上,提出通过土地储备、城市规划、土地规划等使土地市场供给信息公开化,使企业和公众形成合理预期来进一步完善我国土地市场的建议。 相似文献