Financial Integration and EMU

This paper investigates the effect of European Monetary Union on the integration of the financial services industry within European using data on the announcements of M&A's within the industry. We find some evidence that EMU has helped financial integration within the euro area. In addition, financial institutions in EMU countries became more active in initiating integration between EMU and non‐EMU partners, which also contributed to overall regional integration within European. The more active role of EMU institutions suggests that institutions residing in the eurozone became stronger players in the corporate control market. However, EMU does not facilitate the entry of non‐European institutions into European.     

Determinants of corporate debt securities in the Euro area

Abstract

This study examines the macroeconomic determinants of corporate debt securities in the euro area. The financing costs, as approximated by the cost of debt securities vis-à-vis other sources of corporate finance, and financing needs, as captured by mergers and acquisitions and gross domestic product, are found to be significant determinants in the short and long run. The empirical results are also supportive of substitution between debt security and internal financing unrelated to cost of differentials in the short run and of differences in the determination of long- and short-term debt securities. These findings are robust across different samples and specifications.     

What explains global exchange rate movements during the financial crisis?

A striking and unexpected feature of the financial crisis has been the sharp appreciation of the US dollar against virtually all currencies globally. The paper finds that negative US-specific macroeconomic shocks during the crisis have triggered a significant strengthening of the US dollar, rather than a weakening. Macroeconomic fundamentals and financial exposure of individual countries are found to have played a key role in the transmission process of US shocks: in particular countries with low FX reserves, weak current account positions and high direct financial exposure vis-à-vis the United States have experienced substantially larger currency depreciations during the crisis overall, and to US shocks in particular.     

Bank Runs and the Accounting for Illiquid Assets in Financial Institutions

Abstract

Financial services are an increasingly important sector in modern economies, yet many accounting and auditing texts focus on manufacturing and retailing. This teaching note describes the role of financial institutions in transforming long-term, difficult-to-sell assets into short-term bank accounts. This is referred to as liquidity transformation. The social benefits and risks of liquidity transformation are described. The social benefit occurs due to the increased liquidity provided by the bank to depositors. The risk comes in the form of a bank run, wherein difficult-to-sell assets cannot be redeemed in time to cover the rapid and unexpected withdrawals of depositors. The financial statements of a financial institution are presented and the issue of valuation is discussed. Finally, practical relevance for accounting students is enhanced by including discussions of historical precedents and of implications for financial reporting and auditing.     

The demand for eurozone stocks and bonds in a time-varying asset allocation framework

This paper analyzes the short and long-run demand for traditional financial asset classes in eleven founding eurozone members. Our sample period starts from the introduction of euro till 2017. We calculate the welfare losses stemming from ignoring the demand for domestic and eurozone equities and bonds, for various levels of risk aversion. Our results show that the bonds of eurozone countries are, in general, desirable for short-run only. However, in Ireland, Portugal and Spain the bonds are desirable for both short-run and long-run investment horizons. Stocks exhibit both short-run and long-run desirability for all countries except Greece. The Greek stocks are desirable for short- run only.     

Short-Term External Debt and Foreign Exchange Rate Volatility in Emerging Economies: Evidence from the Korea Market

Abstract:

We empirically analyze the main determinants of foreign exchange rate (FX) volatility in emerging market economies using the data of Korea corporations and financial institutions. We find that short-term external debt is more important than trading volume of foreign investors in explaining FX volatility. Our results suggest that short-term debt-controlling measures, such as a tax levy on short-term borrowing, can be more effective in moderating FX volatility than can the measures affecting the trading volume, such as a Tobin tax.     

Has the euro affected the choice of invoicing currency?

We present a new approach to study empirically the effect of the introduction of the euro on the pattern of currency invoicing. Our approach uses a compositional multinomial logit model, in which currency choice is explained by both currency-specific and country-specific determinants. We use unique quarterly panel data on the invoicing of Norwegian imports from OECD countries for the 1996–2006 period. We find that eurozone countries have substantially increased their share of home currency invoicing after the introduction of the euro, whereas the home currency share of non-eurozone countries fell slightly. In addition, the euro as a vehicle currency has overtaken the role of the US dollar in Norwegian imports. The substantial rise in producer currency invoicing by eurozone countries is primarily caused by a drop in inflation volatility and can only to a small extent be explained by an unobserved euro effect.     

Foreign Direct Investment,Institutional Quality,and Financial Development along the Belt and Road: An Empirical Investigation

ABSTRACT

The source of financial development is less investigated in the literature, especially the role foreign direct investment (FDI) plays on financial development. Using data from 50 countries joining the Belt and Road Initiative, this article at first time tests the impact of FDI on financial development in a host country. Empirical results show that FDI can significantly improve the development of financial sector, especially the development of financial markets. FDI is found to be a stronger driver of financial development for countries with higher quality institutions. Moreover, FDI not only increases financial deepening, but also enhances financial function.     

The eurozone: What is to be done to maintain macro and financial stability?

The financial stability of the eurozone depends on its macroeconomic stability and vice versa. We construct a macro DSGE model of the eurozone and its two main regions, the North and the South, with the aim of matching the macro facts of these economies by indirect inference and using the resulting empirically-based model to assess possible new policy regimes that could maintain financial stability. The model we have found to fit the facts suggests that substantial gains in stability and consumer welfare are possible if the fiscal authority in each region is given the freedom to respond to its own economic situation. Further gains could come with the restoration of monetary independence to the two regions, in effect creating a second ‘southern euro’ bloc. Enhanced fiscal flexibility increases fluctuations in debt and deficit ratios to GDP while keeping average ratios stable, maintaining solvency. A reformed Stability and Growth Pact could be limited to monitoring solvency.     

INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES AND MULTINATIONALITY: EVIDENCE FROM CAPITAL STRUCTURE CHANGES

I examine shareholder valuation effects of capital structure changes for multinational (MNC) and domestic (DC) corporations. The internalization theory of foreign direct investment posits that MNCs create value by internalizing the market for their assets across national borders. If the financing decision is related to the rents from future investments, MNCs may have differential valuation effects to capital structure changes vis-à-vis DCs. I find that MNCs have lower (greater) excess returns for debt-for-equity (equity-for-debt) exchanges than DCs. The cross-sectional analyses show that the valuation effects are differentially related to the investment opportunities of MNCs and DCs.     

A tale of fragmentation: Corporate funding in the euro-area bond market

Corporations of different euro-area countries faced noticeably different costs of funding in the bond market during the prolonged period of financial instability which started in 2007. We identify the determinants of corporate bond yield spreads in order to isolate country-specific effects, as indicators of market fragmentation. Our evidence hints at a disorderly process of reassessment of corporate credit risk since 2007 with country-specific spreads vis-à-vis Germany becoming strongly positive for issuers located in other euro-area countries (Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain, in particular). After the introduction of the non-conventional monetary policy tool named OMT, the spreads declined considerably, but fragmentation disappeared only in the latest period characterised by the expectations and the actual deployment of the ECB quantitative easing.     

A cross-country analysis of corporate carbon performance: An international investment perspective

In this study, we examine corporate carbon performance globally from the perspective of country-level dispersion. The average carbon performance of listed companies in the non-OECD countries increases more after the Paris Agreement than that of listed companies in the OECD countries. However, under an increasing trend of average country-level carbon performance, the dispersion of corporate carbon performance is reduced more in the OECD countries vis-à-vis the non-OECD countries. In addition, international equity ownership is negatively associated with the dispersion of country-level corporate carbon performance in the post-Paris Agreement period. This finding supports our conjecture that sophisticated foreign investors from developed countries exert a significant positive influence on the carbon management efficiency of domestic firms in developing countries.     

Does the euro dominate Central and Eastern European money markets?

The so-called German Dominance Hypothesis (GDH) claimed that Bundesbank policies were transmitted into other European Monetary System (EMS) interest rates during the pre-euro era. We reformulate this hypothesis for the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries that are on the verge of accessing the eurozone. We test this “Euro Dominance Hypothesis (EDH)” in a novel way using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) approach that combines country-specific error correction models in a global system. We find that euro area monetary policies are transmitted into CEE money market rates, providing evidence for monetary integration between the eurozone and CEE countries. Our framework also allows for introducing global monetary shocks to provide at least tentative empirical evidence regarding the effects of the recent financial crisis on monetary integration in Europe.     

Impacts of the financial crisis on eurozone sovereign CDS spreads

We study the variation of sovereign credit default swaps (CDSs) of eurozone countries, their persistence and co-movements, with particular attention given to the impact of the financial crisis. Specifically, using a dual fractional integration model, we test the evidence of long memory for CDSs of ten eurozone countries. Our analysis reveals that price discovery processes satisfy the minimum requirements for a weak form of efficiency for sovereign CDS markets, even during the crisis. In contrast, we document the spreading out of persistent CDS uncertainty among the peripheral economies with its outbreak. We provide evidence that CDS uncertainty has implications for the pricing of sovereign risk including that of core countries in the crisis period. Finally, we present the potential spillover effects utilizing a dynamic conditional correlation model and show that, with the collapse of Lehman, the probability of a contagion increased across all countries and became more explicit for peripheral economies as the sovereign crisis took on a new dimension.     

Federalism, weak institutions and the competition for foreign direct investment

This paper shows that vertical fiscal inefficiencies impede federally organized countries in successfully attracting foreign direct investment. Such countries, particularly if characterized by weak institutions, are disadvantaged in the process of bidding for firms and in their ability to commit to a low overall tax burden. The interaction of these problems deteriorates their competitive position vis-à-vis unitary states in the competition for foreign direct investment. These theoretical considerations are in line with recent empirical evidence that suggests that the number of government layers of host countries has significant and sizeable negative effects on the amount of foreign direct investment inflows.      

The real effects of financial (dis)integration: A multi-country equilibrium analysis of Europe

Using data from 15 European Union economies, we quantify the real effects of supply-side frictions due to the financial disintegration of European countries since the 2008 financial crisis. We develop a multi-country general equilibrium model with heterogeneous countries and destination-specific financial frictions. Financial institutions allocate capital endogenously across countries, determining the cost of capital to firms and the wealth of nations. The cost of financial disintegration is reduced access to capital for firms which results in lower output. Financial disintegration leads to a 0.54% fall in output in Europe since the crisis. We also estimate benefits of further financial integration.     

The Squam Lake Report: Fixing the Financial System*

In these excerpts from The Squam Lake Report, fifteen distinguished economists analyze where the global financial system failed, and how such failures might be prevented (or at least their damage better contained) in the future. Although there were many contributing factors to the crisis—including “agency” problems throughout the financial system and a bankruptcy code poorly suited for reorganizing financial firms—at the core of the problem is a potential conflict between the risk-taking proclivity of financial institutions and the interests of the economy at large that must be managed at least in part through more effective regulation. The Squam Lake Report provides a nonpartisan plan to transform the regulation of financial markets in ways designed to limit systemic risk while preserving—to the extent possible and prudent—the economies of scale and scope that justify the existence of today's large financial institutions. To reduce the risks that large banks will fail, the authors call for higher capital requirements based on more effective assessments of the risks of bank assets and liabilities, as well as a new systemic regulator that should be part of the central bank. To reduce the costs of failure when it occurs, the authors propose that banks be required to create “living wills” laying out their plan to sell assets or shut down operations in the event of financial trouble. As part of that plan, regulators are urged to “aggressively encourage” banks to issue “contingent” debt capital securities that convert into equity.     

Credit cycle coherence in the eurozone: Was there a euro effect?

This paper examines effects of the euro introduction on credit cycle coherence in the eurozone through six channels. We construct and describe credit cycles for total bank credit, household mortgages and non-financial business loans for 16 EMU economies over 1990–2015. Credit cycle coherence is measured by synchronicity of cycle movements and similarity of their amplitudes. We find that the effect of euro introduction runs through elimination of currency risk and higher capital flows, which decrease coherence of total credit and mortgage credit cycles, but increase coherence of business credit cycles. Falling interest rates contribute to the convergence of total and mortgage credit cycles. Financial deregulation and legal harmonization are associated with lower coherence of all credit cycles, while trade openness has the opposite impact. The findings impinge on monetary policy effectiveness in the eurozone, with implications for macroprudential policy.     

International spillovers from Euro area and US credit and demand shocks: A focus on emerging Europe

In this paper, we examine the international effects of contractions in loan supply, loan demand and aggregate demand in the euro area and the USA. All three shocks have been at the forefront in spreading stress during the period of the global financial crisis and in particular so to countries that are strongly integrated with the euro area. We find that these shocks decrease international output and total credit to a varying degree. Loan demand and aggregate demand shocks in the euro area trigger significant negative spillovers on output in most other regions. Evidence for global negative output effects of euro area loan supply shocks is fraught with considerable estimation uncertainty. When these three types of shocks emanate from the USA, we find significant negative spillovers on output also for loan supply shocks. In general, international effects on total credit are an order of magnitude larger than those on output, with again more evidence that is significant for US than euro area shocks. Last, and taking a regional stance, our results indicate that economies from emerging Europe are most vulnerable to all shocks considered. Through their strong economic integration with the euro area, these economies are likewise exposed to euro area and US shocks, and spillover effects are often larger than the domestic response in the country of shock-origin.     

The Euro and the Changing Face of European Banking: Evidence from Mergers and Acquisitions

During the last fifteen years, the European banking industry has experienced considerable consolidation through mergers and acquisitions against the background of the introduction of the single currency and reductions in cross‐border barriers. This paper investigates whether these changes impacted on announcement period gains of the banks acquiring targets by examining the pre‐euro, run‐up to the euro and post euro eras. Evidence suggests bidders' gains have fallen with the development of economic and monetary union. It also reveals significant differences in the gains from acquisitions within and outside the eurozone. These results are consistent with increased competition among bidders and increased integration of the market in the eurozone area in the post‐euro era. However, differing results relating to focused and diversifying bids suggest that the level of market integration is sector dependent.