World trade recovering but still reasons for caution

• ? World trade has picked up in recent months, expanding at the fastest pace in six years in the first quarter, with the rise fairly evenly split between advanced and emerging markets. Stronger activity in China and a broader upturn in global investment have been key factors. But there are still reasons for caution. Although the ‘cyclical’ element in world trade is improving, the ‘trend’ element is not thanks to changes in supply chains and a lack of trade liberalisation.
• ? World trade growth looks set to reach about a 4% annual rate in Q1 2017, the fastest pace since 2011. Alternative freight‐based indicators confirm the upturn. This suggests some modest near‐term upside risk to our world growth forecasts.
• ? Recent growth has been evenly split between advanced countries and emerging markets (EM). In EM, the end of deep recessions in Russia and Brazil and an upturn in China have been key factors. China directly added 0.5 percentage points to annual world trade growth over recent months and firmer growth there has also pushed up commodity prices and the spending power and imports of commodity exporters.
• ? Another important positive factor is an improvement in investment, which is a trade‐intensive element of world GDP. Rising capital goods imports across a range of countries suggest the drag on world trade from weak investment is fading.
• ? The decline in the ratio of world trade growth to world GDP growth over recent years has both cyclical and structural elements. But while the cyclical component now seems to be improving, there is little evidence that the structural part – responsible for between a half and two‐thirds of the recent decline – is doing likewise.
• ? Key factors behind the structural decline in world trade growth are changes in supply chains and a lack of trade liberalisation/protectionism. Both are likely to remain a drag over the coming years. Meanwhile, a levelling‐off of growth in China and drop back in commodity prices could curb the recent cyclical uptick.

     

Production fragmentation and trade integration: East Asia in a global context

This paper examines the implications of international production fragmentation for global and regional trade patterns, with special emphasis on countries in East Asia. It is found that, while trade in parts and components (fragmentation trade) has generally grown faster than total world manufacturing trade, the degree of dependence of East Asia on this new form of international specialization is proportionately larger than in North America and Europe. International production fragmentation has certainly played a pivotal role in the continuing dynamism of the East Asian economies and increasing intra-regional economic interdependence. There is, however, no evidence to suggest that this new form of international exchange has contributed to reducing the region's dependence on the global economy. On the contrary, growth dynamism based on vertical specialization depends inexorably on extra-regional trade in final goods, and this dependence has in fact increased over the years.     

新兴经济体发展对国际社会的影响力研究

当今世界经济呈现多极化趋势,新兴经济体成为世界经济增长的主要动力,对世界政治经济格局产生深刻影响。本文阐述新兴经济体在政治、经济、社会等各方面发展状况,分析新兴经济体的发展对国际社会的影响力。新兴经济体的发展促进了世界经济、国际贸易的稳步发展和产业结构调整,为消除世界范围的贫困和维护世界和平做出了积极的贡献,为发展中国家加快发展和加强“区域化”多边合作提供了可借鉴模式,同时对全球治理结构转型和国际秩序重塑产生一定影响。     

European industry: the emerging market competitiveness challenge

As the global economy has become increasingly open to 'free' trade, European industry ‐ and, indeed, industry across the developed world ‐ has found itself faced with growing competition from low cost, emerging market countries. How is it facing up to this stiff challenge? Newspaper headlines may suggest that effort has been focused on raising trade barriers to keep competition at bay. However, such actions are a thin veneer over the very real, structural changes that are rapidly taking place. This article, by Grant Colquhoun, examines the changing structure of the EU15's trading patterns and the differential impact across manufacturing sectors. It then analyses the steps industry is taking to cope with the competitiveness challenge. As well as attempting to squeeze costs, it is clear that industry in Europe is restructuring in order to focus on higher value added activities, where it typically has a competitive advantage over emerging markets.     

国际贸易便利化对顾客满意度的影响研究

国际贸易发展是世界经济进步的重要表现。全球化背景下,经济和科技不断发展,人们对于生活的要求也发生了各种各样的变化,其中顾客对于产品的满意度直接影响了企业的利润增长,所以如何提高顾客满意度是经济发展的重要因素。国际贸易便利化是全球化背景下出现的新型经济特点,国际贸易便利化使各国对外贸易的政策发生了改变,实现了对国际贸易链条的全部环节的覆盖,顺应时代背景的发展。贸易便利化的发展趋势必不可挡,在国际贸易便利化发展过程中对于顾客满意度有着很大的影响。     

Sacred alliance or pact with the devil? How and why social enterprises collaborate with mainstream businesses in the fair trade sector*

Abstract

This paper uses institutional theory to highlight different patterns of cross-sector collaboration from the perspective of social enterprises. Specifically, it explores how and why social enterprises interact with mainstream businesses and to what extent their collaboration patterns reflect a vision of how their social mission should be implemented and institutionalized. The empirical analysis is derived from a qualitative study of ‘fair trade’ – a hybrid model created by social enterprises and using market mechanisms to support small-scale producers in developing countries and to advocate for changes in international trading practices. The findings highlight three strategies used by fair trade social enterprises to manage their interactions with mainstream businesses: sector solidarity, selective engagement, and active appropriation. This paper suggests that each strategy is motivated by a different vision of how best to articulate the social mission of fair trade via specific types of collaborations. It also notes how each vision has a distinct pattern of institutionalization at the field level. This paper adds to the emergent literatures on social enterprise and social entrepreneurship, fair trade, cross-sector collaboration and hybrid organizing.     

Intra-regional Wage Inequality in Portugal

Abstract

Studies on intra-regional inequality are scarce, particularly for European countries. This paper aims at further investigating inequality by focusing on wage differences within regions. We consider the case of Portugal, which is considered one of the countries with the highest level of economic inequality. In particular, we analyse the evolution of intra-regional wage inequality between 1995 and 2005, employing a quantile-based decomposition method. Our results show that wage inequality evolution has been different across the various regions, increasing in some regions and decreasing in others. Different changes in the workforce composition explain these diverse developments.     

The International Economic Order and Trade Architecture

Abstract

The world has lived through an accelerated globalization process over the last 15 years. Global trade relative to world GDP has grown from 39% in 1992 to 52% in 2005. At the same time, the share of world trade of OECD countries has gone down from 73% in 1992 to 64% in 2005. These shifts have led to changes in the structure of the world trade network and, in particular, how the role and influence of emerging markets on world trade have evolved. This paper is designed to elucidate some aspects of this changing trade architecture using network analysis.

Ordre économique international et architecture commerciale

Résumé Au cours des 15 dernières années, le monde a traversé une période de mondialisation accélérée. Le rapport entre le commerce mondial et le PNB du monde est passé de 39% en 1992 à 52% en 2005. Pendant la même période, la part du commerce mondial pour les pays de l'OCDE a baissé de 73% en 1992 à 64% en 2005. Ces variations ont engendré des variations dans la structure du commerce mondial, notamment dans l’évolution du rôle et de l'influence des marchés émergents sur le commerce mondial. La présente communication a pour but d’élucider certains aspects de cette architecture mondiale changeante au moyen d'une analyse des réseaux.

El orden económico internacional y la arquitectura comercial

Resumen Durante los últimos 15 años, el mundo ha atravesado un proceso acelerado de globalización. El comercio global, en relación con el PNB mundial, ha crecido de un 39% en 1992 a un 52% en 2005. Al mismo tiempo, el reparto del comercio mundial entre los países de la OECD ha descendido de un 73% en 1992 a un 64% en 2005. Estos movimientos han conducido a 20 cambios en la estructura de la red comercial mundial, y particularmente, en la forma de evolucionar de la función y la influencia de los mercados emergentes sobre el comercio mundial. Este artículo se ha destinado a aclarar ciertos aspectos de esta cambiante arquitectura comercial utilizando un análisis de redes.

     

Obstfeld and Rogoff׳s international macro puzzles: a quantitative assessment

Obstfeld and Rogoff (2001) propose that trade frictions lie behind key puzzles in international macroeconomics. We take a dynamic multicountry model of international trade, production, and investment to data from 19 countries to assess this proposition quantitatively. Using the framework developed in Eaton et al. (2016), we revisit the puzzles in a counterfactual world without trade frictions in manufactures. Removing these trade frictions goes a long way toward resolving a number of puzzles. The dependence of domestic investment on domestic saving falls by half or disappears entirely, mitigating the Feldstein and Horioka (1980) puzzle. Changes in nominal GDPs in U.S. dollars become less variable across countries and line up with changes in real GDPs as much as with real exchange rates, mitigating the exchange rate disconnect puzzle. Less dramatically, changes in consumption become more correlated across countries, mitigating the consumption correlations puzzle and changes in real exchange rates become less variable across countries, mitigating the relative purchasing power parity puzzle.     

Factors driving embodied carbon in international trade: a multiregional input–output gravity model

ABSTRACT

Concerns about the effects and consequences of climate change have notably increased in recent decades. Despite large advances in the understanding of this phenomenon, further research into the determinants of gas emissions is necessary, to shed light on the responsibilities of producers and consumers, and their potential contribution to mitigation strategies. This paper studies the trajectories and determinants of carbon embodied in world trade during a period of 15 years. Our methodology relies on a multiregional input–output model, environmentally extended. Drawing on data from the World Input–Output Database, we estimate embodied emissions in bilateral flows. Then, we assess the determinants of CO₂ emissions embodied in trade, combining input–output modelling with trade gravity panel data analysis. This paper offers a methodological approach that explains and quantifies the underlying factors of carbon trade, integrating the production and consumption perspectives and considering the geographical, structural and institutional context of countries.     

Testing the convergence hypothesis: a longitudinal and cross-sectional analysis of the world trade web through social network and statistical analyses

Different theoretical perspectives support opposite views on convergence: although the dominant view is that convergence is the inevitable outcome of globalization, divergentists (that is, world-system economists and, potentially, also evolutionary geographic ones) argue that convergence forces could be annihilated by the need to keep power relationships within the international division of labor. Even when limiting the convergence issue to international trade, the debate has so far been inconclusive, because various studies have dealt with different and/or short time series or selected too small and different sets of countries. Moreover, none of these studies have analyzed trade patterns and have instead been limited to the aggregate value. Here, through a social network analysis, we examine the world trade patterns from 1980 to 2016 (1980–1992, 1993–2007 and 2008–2016) of at least 164 countries, which have been divided into import and export patterns and into four groups of countries: from core countries to far periphery ones. We test the convergence hypothesis in two directions: the level and trend of convergence, and its possible determination by means of structural or economic globalization, measured in terms of exchanges density and economic values, respectively. We have found that the convergence hypothesis only seems to be confirmed when considering the pure structural aspect and core countries. Conversely, economic convergence—which also includes the structural dimension—has been found to be high for core countries and to increase over time. Moreover, our analysis shows that economic globalization influences convergence, albeit in a strongly negative way. Therefore, our findings seem to support divergentists and the convergence hypothesis should be rejected.

     

Spatial and sectoral characteristics of China’s international and interregional virtual water flows – based on multi-regional input–output model

This paper provides a systematic analysis of spatial and sectoral characteristics and changes in virtual water flows associated with China’s interregional and international trade based on the China interregional input–output tables of 2002 and 2007. The results show significant improvement in water use efficiency between 2002 and 2007. However, the general spatial patterns and sectoral components of virtual water flows have more or less remained during the period. Almost all Chinese provinces are net exporters of virtual water in international trade. In interregional trade, the dominant direction of virtual water flow is from peripheral provinces to eastern coastal provinces. The agricultural sector plays an important role in shaping this direction and has significant impacts on water uses in exporting provinces, some of which are water scarce. The results of this study clarify some confusions concerning mismatches between regional water endowments and virtual water trade within China and with other countries.     

影响国际旅游服务ⅡT的基本因素研究

全球经济一体化以及区域经济一体化进程的深入使国际旅游服务贸易得到了蓬勃发展。文中首次将产业内贸易(Intra-Industry Trade,IIT)理论引入国际旅游服务贸易研究当中,以产业内贸易的视角来观察双向对流的国际旅游服务贸易(即旅游服务IIT)。以东盟为例,探讨了国际旅游服务IIT的发展现象,进而结合旅游学相关理论分析了影响双向对流旅游服务贸易的基本因素。对影响国际旅游服务IIT基本因素的研究可以为提高国际旅游服务IIT的程度,实现贸易多方的"共赢"提供决策依据。     

The role of outsourcing in driving global carbon emissions

Globalisation has narrowed the gap between producers and consumers of goods and services. The linkages between international trade and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions have started to be recognised, yet the extent of outsourcing of emissions across nations is unknown. Filling this gap in knowledge is critical for designing effective policy mechanisms for assigning responsibility for reductions in emissions. Here we present a structural decomposition analysis of global trends in outsourcing of emissions from 1990 to 2010 for 186 individual countries. To this end, we disaggregate total CO₂ emissions for each country into contributions from the domestic economy and international trade. This allows us to unveil outsourcing trends for all nations confirming a world-wide shifting of emissions-intensive production across borders. We categorise nations into “outsourcers” – countries that outsource carbon-intensive production to so-called contractor nations. Our detailed assessment of the commodity content of global outsourcing flows reveals interesting insights about the trade of carbon-intensive commodities.     

Economic downturns and compositional effects in regional population structures by age: a multi-temporal analysis in Greek regions, 1981–2017

Population movements (international and internal migration) and changing fertility and mortality patterns have significantly affected demographic structures. Investigation of the relationship between (evolving) population structures and economic downturns is a key issue in economic demography. Analysis of compositional changes in regional population structures over a sufficiently long time interval may provide an informed knowledge to better understanding of this relationship and the underlying socioeconomic context in European countries. Based on these premises, Greece was considered a paradigmatic case of sequential economic expansions and recessions, impacting the structure of resident population in the last four decades. In this work, changes over time in population structures by age in Greek regions were explored (1981–2017) using a multi-temporal principal component analysis. A diachronic analysis of compositional effects of economic downturns on regional population structures indicates spatially-heterogeneous demographic processes in Greece. The subsequent recession has represented a turning point in Greek demography, consolidating changes in traditional family structures, while stimulating out-migration at younger ages to Northern and Western European regions and containing immigration from developing countries. Metropolitan areas and coastal districts had more rapid population dynamics, while peripheral rural regions experienced more rapid changes towards aging. Population aging had a short-term impact on regional population structures in Greece, with possibly negative consequences for the ability of the country’s economy to recover from crisis.

     

Weak world trade could spark competitive devaluations

• World trade growth has slowed sharply in 2015, with our forecast for growth just 1% for the year. High frequency indicators suggest a stagnant picture, with trade in key emerging markets (EM) especially weak. Import growth in the US and Eurozone remains positive and is holding up world trade, but there are downside risks here also. Very slow world trade growth risks incentivising competitive depreciations and depressing global bond yields.
• In August our OE export indicator fell to its lowest level since late‐2012 –; the point when the US announced ‘QE3’. Its weakness is corroborated by other indicators such as container trade and air freight.
• The main drag to world trade is from emerging markets, especially the BRIC‐4 whose import volumes contracted sharply in H1 2015, cutting more than 1 percentage point from annual growth in goods trade.
• US and European import growth looks stronger and should be supported in 2016 by firming GDP growth. This is an important support for world trade, but the latest data suggest some downside risks here also.
• The weaker world demand growth is then the more that trade will appear like a zero‐sum game where a country can benefit only at the expense of its competitors. This has potentially important implications for asset prices: in particular, countries may turn to competitive depreciation, adding further to global deflationary pressures and holding down global bond yields.

     

The effects of external and internal shocks on total factor productivity

This paper examines structural changes that occur in the total factor productivity (TFP) within countries. It is possible that some episodes of high economic growth or economic decline are associated with permanent productivity shocks; therefore, this research has two objectives. The first one is to estimate the structural changes present in TFP for a sample of 77 countries between 1950 (1960) and 2000. The second one is to identify possible explanations for breaks. Two sources were analyzed: (i) episodes in political and economic history; (ii) changes in international trade – a measure of absorption of technology. The results suggest that about one-third of the TFP time-series present at least one structural break. Downwards breaks are more common, indicating that after a break the TFP has much difficulty to recover. When we investigated factors related with structural change, developed countries presented a break near the first oil shock while the developing countries’ breaks are more spread along the decades. Thus, external strikes seem to be more relevant for developed countries. However, for each country and break date, it was possible to find an event close to the break date endogenously detected. Last, the relevance of international trade, measured by trade share percentage of GDP, seems to be limited to explain abrupt changes in TFP.     

The Role of Interregional Trade in Generating Change in the Regional Economies of Japan, 1980-1990

An earlier analysis (Hewings et al., 1998) revealed the 'hollowing-out' process, a decrease in the level of intraregional intermediation, in the Chicago economy during the period 1975-2011. The main force underlying this structural change has been the change in regional trade patterns in a way that interregional trades across economies has replaced the local purchases of intermediate inputs. The issue addressed in this paper focuses on the decomposition of structural change into changes in interregional trade and in technology, in order to investigate the nature of structural change over time and across sectors. The empirical realization is provided by reference to a series of regional input-output tables for a nine-region division of the Japanese economy (1980-1985-1990). The results revealed that interregional trade has played a key role in determining regional output level while technology itself had a tendency to decrease further.     

中国引进环境技术存在问题研究综述

引进发达国家先进的环境技术是发展中国家用于改善本国环境质量的重要手段。目前全球普遍存在的技术转移方式是国际贸易、外商直接投资、CDM机制下的国际经济合作和国际援助。本文从上述国际环境技术转移的主要方式出发,通过对近年来国内外相关研究文献的研读分析,总结出中国引进环境技术方面存在的障碍和原因,最终提出解决这些问题亟须国际转让机制的创新和政府激励机制的发挥。