丝绸之路经济带金融合作：进展、前景与策略

自丝绸之路经济带提出以来,加强区域金融合作已成为中国与中亚国家对话协作的重要议题。中国与中亚国家不仅具有地理毗邻、资源互补、贸易频繁与协商顺畅等优势,而且拥有强烈的金融合作愿望与需求。目前,中国与中亚国家之间的金融合作已取得了丰硕成果,但是也存在一些潜在挑战。对此,中国与中亚国家需要不断改善金融合作外部环境、完善金融基础设施建设、推进人民币结算与构建区域性金融市场,为丝绸之路经济带金融合作创造良好条件。     

Examining dynamic currency linkages amongst South Asian economies: An empirical study

In this paper, we examine the currency market linkages of South Asian member countries using daily data from 6 January 2004 to 31st March 2016. Time invariant and varying Copula GARCH models show that South Asian countries, except for India and Nepal/Bhutan, have low levels of currency market linkages which can be ascribed to poor levels of intra-regional trade intensity and portfolio flows. We reconfirm the copula results through Diebold and Yilmaz methodology and document that currency market connectedness is very limited in the South Asian region. The trends of the fundamental determinants of currency co-movements for the South Asian member countries were compared with its neighbouring regional economic bloc in Asia which has a much longer history and a wider membership base i.e ASEAN + 6. From a comparative analysis, it was found that South Asia member states have to work on their governance parameters, improve on their trade linkages and trade tariffs and work towards greater degree of capital account convertibility with adequate safeguards to achieve higher levels of currency market linkages.     

A Comparative Analysis of the Public Spending Efficiency of the New EU Member States: A DEA Approach

This paper provides an analysis of the performance and efficiency of the public sector in the European Union (EU). Using composite indicators and data envelopment analysis, we focus on the new EU member countries, which were involved over the past decade in the accession and integration process. Results of the analysis indicate that, unlike "old" EU members, which invested more in sectors such as education or health, countries in Central and Eastern Europe, the "new" EU member states, have directed public resources mainly toward the performance of the government sectors. However, greater efficiency has been achieved precisely in those areas where they have invested less.     

东亚汇率波动联动性的原因分析——基于区域经济一体化角度的思考

近年来,东亚外向型经济体呈现出汇率波动联动性加强并导致实际的汇率制度变动一致的趋势。本文从东亚日益加深的区域经济一体化的角度出发,分析了各经济体的汇率变化受其重要贸易伙伴经济与政策因素影响,如日美汇率结构波动甚至包括邻国(地区)的汇率与货币政策。这说明经济结构相似、经济周期趋同的东亚各经济体需要一致的汇率制度。本文认为,在目前东亚区域汇率合作机制时机尚未成熟时,各经济体同时采取宽带浮动的一篮子盯住较为现实。而在当前金融动荡的形势下,各国汇率政策协调极为重要。     

金融开放视角下宏观经济波动问题研究——以东亚国家(地区)为例

20世纪80年代以来,东亚地区金融市场的开放推动了资本在国际间的大规模流动,大量的国际资本在促进东亚经济增长的同时,也埋下了经济波动的隐患。结合东亚经济体的实际特点,本文采用Aghion等(2004)提出的动态开放经济模型来分析金融开放对东亚不同类型国家(地区)经济波动的影响,并利用东亚国家(地区)的面板数据对模型的结论进行实证检验。研究发现,由于国内金融体系发展程度的差异,金融开放对于东亚不同类型经济体产生的影响不同,金融开放缓解了东亚发达经济体的经济波动,但加剧了发展中国家的经济波动。随着金融开放程度的不断提高,东亚的发展中国家要加快推进国内的金融体系建设,以降低国际资本流动对宏观经济稳定的冲击。     

经济全球化视角下的“夹层效应”——从结构性矛盾看欧洲主权债务危机

本文从经济全球化视角,对欧盟内部和亚洲发展中国家的劳动生产率、劳动工资和单位劳动成本进行了研究。研究表明,当前不对称国际经济体系中特有的夹层效应是欧洲债务危机爆发的深层原因,即希腊等夹层国面临着劳动力全球化下底层国家即亚洲新兴经济体的低成本竞争和上层发达国家劳动生产率的强烈冲击,导致单位劳动成本上升和产品竞争力丧失,这种结构性矛盾与不平衡最终引发了本次危机。根据研究结果,本文认为结构性改革是化解危机的根本途径。     

On the individual optimality of economic integration

Which countries find it optimal to form an economic union? We emphasize the risk-sharing benefits of economic integration. Consider an endowment world economy model, where international financial markets are incomplete and contracts not enforceable. A union solves both frictions among member countries. We uncover conditions on initial incomes and net foreign assets of potential union members such that forming a union is welfare-improving over standing alone in the world economy. Consistently with evidence on economic integration, unions in our model occur (i) relatively infrequently, and (ii) emerge more likely among homogeneous countries, and (iii) rich countries.     

Financial Cooperative Potential Between China and Belt and Road Countries

ABSTRACT

Along with the increasingly frequent economic exchanges between China and the Belt and Road countries (BRCs), bilateral and multilateral financial integration within the region has become a current trend. This article quantifies the level of cooperative potential by designing an index based on the investment demand in China and the financing needs of the BRCs. Using this index, this article analyzes the distribution of the financial cooperative potential among the BRCs and uncovers its influencing factors. The statistical findings are that countries with higher financial cooperative potential have closer economic ties with China. These countries are mostly low-income or middle-income countries with a shortage of infrastructure investment, while their economic development is stable. The research results provide guidance for the overseas strategic layout of the Chinese financial institutions. More funds should be injected into China’s trade and investment counterparts that have stable economic growth and a strong demand for infrastructure investment, such as countries in Northeast, Central, and Southeast Asia.     

Hostages, free lunches and institutional gaps: the case of the European Currency Union

This paper argues that the strong member states of the European Currency Union are hostages of a financially distressed member state so that they are compelled to provide financial support. Moreover, due to the dynamics of the interaction game, a debt relief is a free lunch for the distressed country. This fosters moral hazard of distressed countries. In the absence of capital market control, European politics do not effectively monitor fiscal politics of member states. The lack of a long-term strategy of the European Currency Union to deal with distressed states has undermined the credibility of politics. This lack is also explained by a lack of a European Insolvency Charter. A viable Union requires such a charter with rules for handling distress. Moreover, politics should determine a mechanism to coordinate politics and capital markets in their monitoring of fiscal and economic policy of member states.     

Asian financial integration: Global or regional? Evidence from money and bond markets

This paper investigates the degree of global versus regional financial integration in Southeast Asia during the period 2004–2012. We examine integration in the money and bond markets in Asia by employing a covered-interest-parity-based measure of financial integration. The impact of the 2008 financial crisis as well as the recent regional bond initiatives on the integration process of Asian money and bond markets respectively are specifically investigated. Empirically, we adopt the Phillips and Sul (2007) convergence methodology that has not been previously employed to examine the integration process in Asian money and bond markets. We find evidence of both global and regional integration in the money market pre 2008 but once the crisis hit, the process of global integration comes to an abrupt halt. However, regional integration, albeit at a slower pace, is still clearly evident in the post-crisis period. As for the Asian bond market, evidence of both global and regional integration is found but, in comparison, the latter is more convergent post 2008. Regional integration is stronger when interest rates with longer maturity are considered. In addition, we identify some convergent subgroups of countries and this suggests that a multi-tiered style of convergence is present.     

The role of the european union in environmental taxation

The paper considers the extent to which environmental taxation should be coordinated by, or assigned to, the European Union (EU) rather than its member states. An economic interpretation of the principle of subsidiarity forms the main organizing principle for the discussion. Since the signing of the Maastricht Treaty in 1992, this principle has governed the boundary between the roles of member states and the Union. The paper considers the application of subsidiarity to the assignment of policy responsibility for environmental taxation between the EU and national governments, highlighting the role of both environmental and economic spillovers from uncoordinated national policy and problems of integration of environmental taxes with other areas of policy.     

Can an Asia Pacific Community,similar to the European Community,emerge?

The purpose of this paper is to analyse whether the Asia Pacific region could form a union similar to the one now established in Europe. To this end, it analyses some of the major challenge faced by the US prior to its union in the 19th century and the way countries such as France and Germany contributed to the formation of the EU, despite their past animosity. The paper proposed a two tier system for the emergence of a union in the Asia Pacific region in which all countries could become part of a regional framework for regional security and free trade and some of the more advanced countries in the region could start the process of financial integration and invite other member countries to join them over time. The paper argues that in the 2st century, unlike the claim of the “currency optimum theory,” there is no need for labour mobility amongst Asian countries for the formation of a union in this region and hence Australia should not expect millions of workers from China to migrate there. The paper argues that the role of Japan and China in the process of regional integration has been underestimated, due to the claim that the former is a monoculture and the latter is too nationalistic. The paper highlights how diversity in the region could be seen as a strength in the Asia Pacific region. It also shows how the process of globalisation has already overcome differences in culture, religion and race which used to be stumbling blocks for more regional or global integration. The paper argues that a union in the Asia Pacific region would reduce “home bias” for international capital flows and hence there would be significant financial transformation of countries in this region.     

环境会计:理论与实务的发展与创新

随着人类社会可持续发展观念的形成,环境会计于20世纪70年代开始成为会计科学一个新的分支,西方发达国家的会计界积极开展这一领域的研究并逐渐形成了具有特色的理论和方法,有关国际经济组织和会计职业组织也采取了多种措施以推动其研究与实践。十多年来中国环境会计研究与实践也取得了长足进步,但在新的经济环境下其信息披露的模式需要创新。     

Contagion from the crises in the Euro-zone: where,when and why?

The prevalence of contagion between the Euro-zone countries and other European countries since the Greek crisis of 2009 is now well – known, but the factors that influence the pattern of this contagion are not well understood. We investigate this question both within Europe and beyond to the USA and Japan, using an asymmetric M-GARCH model that focuses on extreme values of the risk premia on government bonds. We compare these extreme values with news of major events and find that they are highly correlated. We find a different pattern of contagion emanating from Ireland compared to the other crisis countries of Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain. We also examine the factors that have made countries vulnerable to contagion and find that financial factors are more important than trade ones. However, intra-Euro-zone trade has also been a significant factor between the major Euro-zone economies. There is little evidence that global factors affect contagion between EU member states, but some evidence that nominal exchange rate movements offer a degree of insulation from contagion for the non-Euro zone states.     

中国与东南亚国家贸易潜力及影响因素研究——基于随机前沿引力模型

运用时变随机前沿引力模型和贸易非效率模型,以1998-2016年中国及东南亚九个国家面板数据为样本,测度中国对东南亚国家出口贸易潜力,并分析其主要影响因素。结果表明：1998-2016年中国对东南亚国家出口贸易潜力呈现先上升后下降趋势,依然有较大提升空间,中国对东南亚国家出口贸易潜力差异较大。航空运输货运量、货币自由度、财务自由度、商业自由度及世界贸易组织成员国均对出口贸易非效率具有显著的影响。     

Latin America in the rearview mirror

Latin American countries are the only Western countries that are poor and that are not gaining ground on the U.S. This paper evaluates why Latin America has not replicated Western economic success. We find that this failure is primarily due to TFP differences. Latin America's TFP gap is not plausibly accounted for by human capital differences, but rather reflects inefficient production. We argue that competitive barriers are a promising channel for understanding low Latin TFP. We document that Latin America has many more international and domestic competitive barriers than do Western and successful East Asian countries. We also document a number of microeconomic cases in Latin America in which large reductions in competitive barriers increase Latin American productivity to Western levels.     

Effects of Economic Convergence on Stock Market Returns in Major EMU Member Countries

This study updates and extends existing literature by investigating the effects of economic convergence among major European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) member countries on stock market returns in each respective nation. Main findings include: (1) long-term stability in the EMU appears to be attainable, but further integration of product and factor markets is needed to reinforce convergence of real sectors; (2) the UK can be considered a quasi EMU participant due to convergence of its key economic variables with those of formal EMU members; and (3) economic convergence appears to be an important contributing factor to returns from stock markets in the included EMU countries except Germany.     

“10＋3”框架下东亚区域货币合作可行性分析与战略选择——基于经济冲击对称性视角

东亚各国目前在货币领域的合作严重滞后于贸易合作,2008年全球金融危机的爆发使东亚货币合作面临着前所未有的挑战。根据传统的OCA标准,目前东亚各国内部经济条件差异较大,而且这种差异有逐步扩大的趋势,因此进行深层次货币合作的成本较高。基于经济冲击对称性的实证分析进一步表明,中日韩二三国货币冲击的对称性较高,但是在供给冲击和需求冲击方面存在非对称性,而且这种非对称性在短期更为明显。与日韩相比,中国与东盟之间经济冲击的对称程度相对较高,具备一定的合作优势。因此中国应以贸易合作为基础,加强同东亚主要经济体的经贸往来,共同引领东亚货币合作向更高层次迈进。     

Government financial statistics and accounting in Europe: is ESA 2010 improving convergence?

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the impact of ESA 2010 on EU member states, looking at countries both individually and as a whole and analysing the global impact of the adjustments and the partial impacts of each category. Changing the system of national accounts has introduced conceptual and methodological changes, but there has not been any significant variation in the convergence/divergence between government financial statistics and budgetary accounting in reporting deficits. The effect on the deficits reported by individual member states was quite marked however.     

东亚区域外汇储备库的成本、收益与动态演化

东亚区域外汇储备库的建立对于区域内成员国而言机会成本与潜在收益并存。准备金指数法研究表明:同危机前相比,从外汇储备库制度安排中受益的国家数目和受益的幅度都有大幅增加,这表明外汇储备库的制度安排能使各国更好地应对国际金融风险,稳定金融市场。未来独立经济监控实体加之合理的东亚储备库制度安排就会形成亚洲货币基金(AMF)的雏形。