Do interest rate controls work? Evidence from Kenya

This paper reviews the impact of interest rate controls in Kenya, introduced in September 2016. The intent of the controls was to reduce the cost of borrowing, expand access to credit, and increase the return on savings. However, we find that the law on interest rate controls has had the opposite effect of what was intended. Specifically, it has led to a collapse of credit to micro‐, small‐, and medium‐sized enterprises; shrinking of the loan book of the small banks; and reduced financial intermediation. Because of their adverse effects on bank lending, we estimate that the interest rate controls have reduced economic growth by ¼–¾ percentage points on an annual basis. We also show that interest rate caps reduced the signaling effects of monetary policy. These suggest that (1) the adverse effects could largely be avoided if the ceiling was high enough to facilitate lending to higher‐risk borrowers and (2) alternative policies could be preferable to address concerns about the high cost of credit.     

A Ricardian Analysis of the Distribution of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture across Agro-Ecological Zones in Africa

This paper examines the distribution of climate change impacts across the sixteen Agro-Ecological Zones (AEZs) of Africa. We combine net revenue from livestock and crops and regress total net revenue on a set of climate, soil, and socio-economic variables with and without country fixed effects. Although African crop net revenue is very sensitive to climate change, combined livestock and crop net revenue is more climate resilient. With the hot and dry CCC climate scenario, average damage estimates reach 27% by 2100, but with the mild and wet PCM scenario, African farmers will benefit. The analysis of AEZs implies that the effects of climate change will be quite different across Africa. For example, currently productive areas such as dry/moist savannah are more vulnerable to climate change while currently less productive agricultural zones such as humid forest or sub-humid AEZs become more productive in the future. S. Niggol Seo is the Consultant to the World Bank.     

African farmers’ market organizations and global value chains: competitiveness versus inclusiveness

Abstract

This conceptual paper discusses the challenges smallholder producer cooperatives in developing countries face while trying to access agricultural global value chains. We assess the problem of competitiveness related to lack of commitment and improper selection. Prioritization of open membership over selection is generally taken for granted in the policy debate on farmers’ market organizations (FMOs). We argue that open membership may work in community-driven organizations, however, it becomes a major threat for entrepreneurial FMOs. Inclusion facilitates free riding, which forms a barrier for investments of members. This is one of the major reasons why so many of these organizations are so much resource constrained, i.e. are not able to compete in the market without external support. FMOs should take targeting and selection serious if entrepreneurial activities are intended. Otherwise, they miss the opportunity to create a committed member base willing to invest in a potentially competitive organization.     

Does financial inclusion empower women in Africa?

This paper examines the effect of financial inclusion on women's empowerment. We contribute to the growing interest in financial inclusion effectiveness literature by conducting an empirical analysis of 42 African countries to examine the role of financial inclusion in empowering women. We also examine and compare the effectiveness of the three dimensions of financial inclusion viz. usage, access, and quality, and the first most influential indicators, based on their PCA score, of these dimensions. Our findings suggest that financial inclusion has a significantly positive effect on women's empowerment-measured by females' human development index. Examining the relative importance of financial inclusion dimensions, we find access to financial services has a higher effect on women's empowerment. These results are robust to alternative measures of women's empowerment and financial inclusion, and alternative estimation procedures. We also find that the effect of financial inclusion on women's empowerment is higher in low and lower-middle-income countries compared with upper-middle-income countries in the region. This study provides evidence of one of the channels through which financial inclusion contributes to reducing gender inequality, and thereby enhancing economic development.     

收入因素与中国劣质品市场的部分逆向选择

基于Akerlof逆向选择模型,引入收入因素对其分析,通过说明收入因素影响消费偏好,进而改变消费者的无差异曲线,建立一个有限次交易后最终达到非零均衡的部分逆向选择的基本模型,并着重从这一侧面,即收入因素的影响,分析为什么在中国劣质品市场会长期存在。研究表明：购买偏好因收入增加而改变明显的劣质品的解决途径是增加人们的收入水平;购买偏好随收入增加改变不明显的劣质品的解决途径是增加外部干预。     

经济作物种植与非农生产活动空间关系探究——以河南省柘城县为例

经济作物种植和非农生产活动均为农户用于获取经济收入的重要途径。通过对河南省柘城县辣椒种植业及非农生产活动的调查分析,发现经济作物种植与非农生产活动空间分布呈现一定的对应关系:以县城为中心,随着距离的增加,二者分别呈现"低—高—低"和"高—低—高"的空间分布特征;以各自所属乡镇行政中心所在地为中心,随着距离的增加,二者分别呈现"低—高—低—高"和"高—低—高—低"的空间分布特征。建立理论模型,并给出了形成以上现象的可能性原因。找出特定农作物与非农生产活动空间分布特征,对鉴别农业专业化生产区域、优化农区空间结构、提高土地产出率具有重要意义。     

基于利益关系的中央政府与地方政府关系

在经济政策的制定和执行过程中,中央政府与地方政府有着不同的利益,利益关系成为中央与地方关系的核心问题,两者的冲突主要表现在地方经济增长问题上。改革开放以来,形成了许多新的利益集团和利益群体。地方政府为了显示政绩,与利益集团联盟,在经济上为GDP和利税进行竞争,在政治上为晋升而竞争。为了改变地方政府从辖区利益出发解释和执行中央宏观经济政策的现象,我们有必要从制度上创新,构建和谐的中央与地方关系。     

基于结构方程模型的黄土丘陵区商品型生态农业系统耦合关系分析

黄土丘陵区生态环境脆弱,农民增收与生态恢复是该区域的2大主要需求。商品型生态农业能够使满足这2个需求的"行为过程"有机结合,实现产业与资源的耦合。商品型生态农业系统要素之间存在复杂的耦合关系,为此引入"结构方程模型"。通过对典型流域(村)124户农户资料的分析与建模,结果表明:农业产业对商品型生态农业系统耦合态势具有直接影响作用,即农业产业构成了农户商品型生态农业建设的主体,而"耦合态势"却决定了农户对生态环境和社会发展的认识;在"系统运行过程中",农业资源、农户环境与农业产业具有两两相关性,且农业资源与农户环境的变化通过产业的发展传递并影响到农户生态经济系统耦合态势。这一结果与商品型生态农业的理念相吻合。为此,必须提高农户对社会经济发展的感知程度,合理、有效的利用农业资源,促进产业与农业资源的优化耦合。