Consumption,wealth and business cycles in Germany

This paper studies the long-run relationship between consumption, asset wealth and income—the consumption–wealth ratio—based on German data from 1980 to 2003. We find that departures from this long-run relationship mainly predict adjustments in income. The German consumption–wealth ratio also contains considerable forecasting power for a range of business cycle indicators, including the unemployment rate. This finding is in contrast to earlier studies for some of the Anglo-Saxon economies that have shown that the consumption–wealth ratio reverts to its long-run mean mainly through subsequent adjustments in asset prices. While the German consumption wealth ratio contains little information about future changes in German asset prices, we report that the U.S. consumption–wealth ratio has considerable forecasting power for the German stock market. One explanation of these findings is that in Germany—due to structural differences in the financial and pension systems—the share of publicly traded equity in aggregate household wealth is much smaller than in the Anglo-Saxon countries. We discuss the implications of our results for the measurement of a potential wealth effect on consumption. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not reflect the position of the Deutsche Bundesbank. We gratefully acknowledge comments and suggestions from an anonymous referee as well as from Heinz Herrmann, Helmut Lütkepohl, the editor, Baldev Raj, Burkhard Raunig, Monika Schnitzer, Harald Uhlig and Christian Upper. We also benefitted from comments by seminar participants at the ECB, the Deutsche Bundesbank, the CESifo Macro, Money and International Finance Area Conference 2005, the EEA 2005 annual congress and at the 2005 IAEA Meetings. Last but not least, we would like to thank Mark Weth for very useful information concerning the construction of the financial wealth data. Hoffmann’s work on this paper is also part of the project The International Allocation of Risk funded by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft in the framework of SFB 475. Responsibility for any remaining errors and shortcomings is entirely our own.     

To react or not? Technology shocks, fiscal policy and welfare in the EU-3

This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to examine the quantitative macroeconomic implications of counter-cyclical fiscal policy for France, Germany and the UK. The model incorporates real wage rigidity and consumption habits, as the particular market failures justifying policy intervention. We subject the model to productivity shocks and allow policy instruments to react to the output gap and the debt-to-output ratio. A welfare analysis reveals that the most effective instrument-target combination is to use public consumption to stabilize the output gap. Moreover, welfare gains from counter-cyclical fiscal policy are much stronger in the presence of wage rigidities compared with consumption habits. Finally, since active policy and automatic stabilizers are substitutes, it is possible that relatively undistorted economies may be in need of countercyclical fiscal action due to inadequate automatic stabilizers.     

Firm-specific capital,inflation persistence and the sources of business cycles

This paper estimates a firm-specific capital DSGE model. Firm-specific capital improves the fit of DSGE models to the data (as shown by a large increase in the value of the log marginal likelihood). This results from a lower implied estimate of the NKPC slope for a given degree of price stickiness. Firm-specific capital leads to a better fit to the volatilities of macro variables and a greater persistence of inflation. It is also shown that firm-specific capital reduces the dependence of New Keynesian models on price markup shocks and that it increases the persistence of output to monetary shocks.     

Determinants of business cycles in small scale macroeconomic models: the German case

We identify measures of shocks to total factor productivity and preferences from two real business cycle models and subject them to Granger causality tests to see whether they can be considered exogenous to other plausible sources of the German business cycle. For West German data from 1960.i to 1989.iv we conclude that our measures of shocks are indeed exogenous. This contrasts with similar studies for other countries that question the exogeneity of either productivity or preference shocks. For the period 70.i to 01.iv we find that M3 Granger causes all of our shock measures. We attribute this to the breaks in our time series associated with the German reunification in 1990 and the European Monetary Union in 1999.Earlier versions of this paper circulate as University of Augsburg economics discussion paper no. 213 and Kiel Institute for World Economics working paper no. 1158, respectively.     

Graphical causal models and VARs: an empirical assessment of the real business cycles hypothesis

This paper assesses the empirical plausibility of the real business cycle view that shocks to real variables are the dominant sources of economic fluctuations and that monetary policy shocks play an insignificant role in determining the behavior of real variables. I reconsider the vector autoregressive model of King et al. (Am Econ Rev 81:819–840, 1991), but propose an alternative identification method, based on graphical causal models. This method selects the contemporaneous causal structure using the information incorporated in the partial correlations among the residuals. The residuals orthogonalization which follows and the study of the impulse response functions confirm the results of King et al. (Am Econ Rev 81:819–840, 1991): permanent productivity shocks are not the dominant sources of aggregate fluctuations in US economy. I would like to thank Peter Spirtes, Marco Lippi, and Clark Glymour for helpful comments on early versions of the paper. I am also grateful to Valentina Corradi for providing me with an updated version of the King et al. (1991) data set. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Business investment in euro area countries: the role of institutions and debt overhang

The recovery of business investment in the euro area has been sluggish, thereby hampering aggregate demand in the short term and potential growth in the long run. While we show that business investment can be associated to cost and supply of credit, cyclical demand conditions and economic uncertainty. But we also find evidence of additional factors. We suggest that there exists a link between excess leverage and weak economic institutions on the one hand and subdued investment growth on the other hand. Moreover, in euro area countries with both larger excess leverage and weaker economic institutions, the link with business investment is found to be stronger. The link between investment and weak institutions or excess leverage highlights the importance of structural reforms aimed at easing business regulations, reducing administrative burdens and increasing the efficiency of insolvency frameworks. These reforms are thus expected to reduce distortions in the allocation of resources and be supportive of a smoother deleveraging process, hence fostering business investment.     

Post-crisis business investment in the euro area and the role of monetary policy

ABSTRACT

Business investment in the euro area strongly declined during the Global Financial Crisis and the Sovereign Debt Crisis. It has not yet rebounded to its pre-crisis trend despite the very expansionary monetary policy measures of the ECB. We analyse the sluggish recovery in business investment in the euro area and the role of monetary policy in three steps. We investigate the main factors that have impeded business investment since the Global Financial Crisis. We empirically analyse how business investment has developed compared to typical patterns during other financial crises. Based on these results, we then discuss how effective monetary policy has been in stimulating business investment since the Global Financial Crisis. We conclude that business investment in the euro area has developed broadly in line with typical post-crisis patterns. Monetary policy significantly contributed to stabilize business investment at the beginning of the crises. In the aftermath of the crises, however, there seems to be little scope for monetary policy to further stimulate investment.     

Toward a non-linear theory of economic fluctuations: Allais's contribution to endogenous business cycle theory in the 1950s

Abstract

In this framework, the existence of a limit cycle is mathematically proved and its existence confirmed by empirical evidence. The mathematical tools are similar to Keynesian pioneering non-linear macrodynamic advances but the theoretical framework is obviously totally distinct. In particular, for Allais, the origin of endogenous cycles is monetary, and explained by the interplay between two key elements: the agents that hold the desired money balances and the banking system that can create money.     

Oil shocks and fiscal policy procyclicality in Angola: Assessing the role of asymmetries and institutions

The aim of this article is to examine procyclicality in Angola, assess whether it behaves asymmetrically over the oil cycle, and test the hypothesis that institutions and fiscal rules can moderate procyclicality. Received wisdom suggests that in resource‐rich economies, fiscal policy tends to be procyclical albeit improvements in the past decades due to institutional reforms. Similar evidence is available for oil‐rich economies; however, we know little about how procyclicality behaves over the oil cycle; that is, whether spending (and revenue) grows faster during oil‐market booms, than during downturns. Further, evidence on institutions and fiscal rules in oil‐exporting economies is still ambiguous. We bridge both gaps by examining fiscal policy procyclicality in Angola, one of the largest oil‐producers in Africa, and a country that has experienced an intense process of institutional reforms since 2002. Therefore, it is an ideal candidate for our study. We use data for the 2004–2014 period to estimate a threshold vector error correction model that extends vector autoregressive and vector correction methods used up to date. Our results indicate that revenue and spending are generally procyclical to oil shocks, that revenue is more procyclical during booms, and that institutional quality, net inflows, financial openness, and fiscal rules affect procyclicality.     

Entrepreneurship,fear of failure,and economic policy

The previous literature finds that self-reported ‘fear of failure’ has a significant negative effect on individuals’ choice to become entrepreneurs. We hypothesize this effect is lessened in economies with a larger number of additional, alternative, entrepreneurial opportunities to pursue if a failure occurs. Prior literature also concludes the number of entrepreneurial opportunities is enhanced significantly by having policies and institutions consistent with higher levels of economic freedom. We therefore test and confirm that fear of failure hurts the entrepreneurial process less when levels of economic freedom are higher as there are more additional chances for failed entrepreneurs to pursue.     

Institutions in the economy and some institutions of mainstream economics: From the late 1970s to the 2008 financial and economic crisis

This article proposes a conceptual and theoretical institutional approach to the relations between the economy and economics and uses it to examine, through a structured survey of the literature, the relations between institutions in the economy and the institutions of mainstream economics, macroeconomics, and financial economics, highlighting issues related to the financial and macroeconomic crisis and focusing on the United States from the late 1970s to 2008. Institutions are socially shared systems of rules of behavior or of thought. Some systems of mental and behavioral rules are socially shared among economic agents and policymakers in part because they are socially shared among academic economists. They may exert on economic agents and policymakers some of the same types of influence they have on economists. On the other hand, there are important limits to the influence of the institutions of economics outside academia, and institutions in the economy also influence the institutions of economics.     

Extracting business cycles with three filters: A comparative study and application in the case of China

This paper aims to evaluate the performances of the wavelet, Hodrick–Prescott (HP), and Baxter–King (BK) filters in extracting cyclical information and to use an appropriate method to analyze China's business cycles. First, we use a second-order autoregression (AR (2)) and random walk, based on Monte Carlo simulation experiments, to generate the data-generating processes (DGPs) with different frequency characteristics. Second, the HP, BK, and wavelet filters are applied to extract the cyclical components of the respective DGPs. Third, the filtering abilities of the three methods are statistically compared. The results show the following: (1) Under the condition that the DGP is low frequency (long cycle) and trend dominated, the filtering performance of the three methods will remain unsatisfactory. (2) If the DGP is high frequency (short cycle), all three methods can serve as effective methods regardless of whether they are trend dominated or cycle dominated. However, it can be seen that the BK and wavelet filters present better performance than the HP filter. (3) In other cases, better filtering performances can be observed in the wavelet. Finally, the three methods are applied to estimate China's business cycles. In conclusion, this paper argues that the wavelet can effectively replace HP and BK filters to extract cyclical components.     

Determinants of co-movement and of lead and lag behavior of business cycles in the Eurozone

In this paper we study business cycle correlations in the Eurozone and its determinants. Additionally, we also analyze the determinants of the lead and lag behavior of business cycles in the Eurozone. We explore the relevance, in the Eurozone context, using GDP and employment as the business cycle measures, of the determinants of business cycle synchronization identified in the literature, namely bilateral trade intensity, dissimilarity of labor market rigidity, dissimilarity in industrial structures, financial openness, and foreign direct investment relations. We estimate a simultaneous 4-equations model by Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and three-stage least square to investigate empirically the above-mentioned determinants of business cycle correlation. Bilateral trade relations present a positive influence on business cycle correlations, while the dissimilarity of labor market rigidity presents a negative influence. The rest of the above-mentioned variables are non-significant. These results are robust to the use of the Hodrick–Prescott-filter and first differences as the de-trending methods, as well as the use of GDP as the business cycle measure, excluding the financial crisis years (2008 and 2009). Results for employment as the business cycle measure are in contrast with the previous ones, and found industrial dissimilarity to be the relevant variable to determine business cycles synchronization. In what concerns the determinants of the lead and lag behavior, results show that the member states of the Eurozone that usually lead the cycle are the ones that are wealthier, with strict employment legislation, more specialized in construction and finance sectors, and more prone to international capital movements. Differences in the determinants between contemporaneous business cycles and lead and lag behavior of business cycles are especially important for policy-makers in the Eurozone to know about, in particular if asymmetric shocks between countries are set in place.     

On the endogeneity of an exogenous OCA-criterion: specialisation and the correlation of regional business cycles in Europe

This paper examines whether changes in the degree of correlation of employment cycles across regions (of Belgium, France, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands, and Spain) can be explained by changing patterns of specialisation. The empirical method adopted carries out pooled regressions for all possible region-pairs which relate moving correlations between the residuals of HP-filtered regional employment to their own past and an index of specialisation. As a test of robustness, the benchmark estimations which originally include dummies for common borders, German unification and relative differences between regional incomes are systematically tested down. The empirical results again highlight the problem of a common monetary policy for uncommon regions within the euro zone.

---

The authors would like to thank an anonymous referee and the participants in the annual NOEG conference in Innsbruck for helpful comments.     

Early Smithian economics in the Spanish empire: J. H. Vieytes and colonial policy *

Juan Hipolito Vieytes (1762–1815)was a hero of the May 1810 Revolution in Buenos Aires and one of the early economists in the River Plate area. Although Robert Sidney Smith dismissed Vieytes as a very minor figure in Spanish economic thought, this article attempts to show that Vieytes, an entrepreneur and journalist and only self-taught in political economy, was an early and able follower and divulgator of Smithian economics. He advocated free trade and liberal economic reforms, pointing at the competitiveness of the domestic workshops or ‘popular industry’ in a country with scanty population and extensive and cheap land.     

Knowledge externalities,innovation and growth in European countries: the role of institutions

This paper provides an empirical analysis of the linkages between institutions and economic growth in the European context and highlights innovation as the intermediate variable that drives this interplay. Building on the literature in the evolutionary approach to the economics of innovation and in the economic growth theory with a political economic perspective, we assume that knowledge externalities can fully take place where institutions guarantee a level playing field in the access to knowledge. We estimate the effects of a set of relevant institutional variables on the growth rate of technological knowledge and per capita GDP for a sample of European countries. The empirical analysis confirms that institutions that tend to equalise opportunities to innovate significantly amplify the impact of an exogenous increase in the knowledge base on the growth rate of per capita GDP.     

Trust,cultural norms and financial institutions in rural communities: the case of Cameroon

The success of the operations of formal and informal financial institutions (IFIs) hinges on a high degree of trust. The pivotal role of trust warrants careful analysis regarding its formation in these financial institutions. Using the case of Cameroon, the paper interrogates trust development between formal financial institutions and their clients, and between IFIs and their members. Trust formation occurs via certain cognitive trust-building processes: calculative, prediction, intentionality, capability, and transference processes. The paper argues that trust formation through these processes is predicated upon cultural values and beliefs. It is precisely because of cultural norms that traditional leaders play a role in ensuring that loans granted by formal financial institutions are repaid, thereby serving as principal actors in the functioning of financial capitalism in rural areas. The interplay between culture and financial institutions reconfigures the financial architecture in rural zones. Culture creates a social relational anthropology that is significant for how financial institutions operate.     

列宁新经济政策理论中的“以退为进”策略及其当代启示

列宁的新经济政策是在“战时共产主义”政策弊端逐渐暴露、苏维埃政权面临着严重危机之时所采取的果断措施。在战时共产主义政策失败的前提下,列宁采取“以退为进”的迂回策略,创造性地提出了新经济政策思想。这不仅为经济文化落后国家建设社会主义提供了新的道路,也为中国的社会主义建设提供了借鉴。