How Does Investor Sentiment Affect Stock Market Crises? Evidence from Panel Data

We test the impact of investor sentiment on a panel of international stock markets. Specifically, we examine the influence of investor sentiment on the probability of stock market crises. We find that investor sentiment increases the probability of occurrence of stock market crises within a one‐year horizon. The impact of investor sentiment on stock markets is more pronounced in countries that are culturally more prone to herd‐like behavior, overreaction and low institutional involvement.     

How Does Information Quality Affect Stock Returns?

Using a simple dynamic asset pricing model, this paper investigates the relationship between the precision of public information about economic growth and stock market returns. After fully characterizing expected returns and conditional volatility, I show that (i) higher precision of signals tends to increase the risk premium, (ii) when signals are imprecise the equity premium is bounded above independently of investors' risk aversion, (iii) return volatility is U-shaped with respect to investors' risk aversion, and (iv) the relationship between conditional expected returns and conditional variance is ambiguous.     

Does Investor Sentiment Affect Earnings Management?

I hypothesize and find that earnings management via accruals is driven partially by the prevailing market‐wide investor sentiment. Managers inflate earnings in periods of higher sentiment, but report more conservatively during periods of low sentiment. Moreover, the likelihood of income‐increasing earnings management to avoid negative earnings surprises is also positively associated with investor sentiment. These results are robust to: (i) controls for time‐varying firm characteristics such as growth, investment opportunity sets, future profitability, leverage and size; (ii) macroeconomic variables such as future inflation, GDP growth, and growth in industrial production; (iii) multiple proxies for investor sentiment; and (iv) discretionary revenues as alternative measure of earnings management. Cross‐sectional analyses reveal that firms whose stock returns co‐move more with investor sentiment are more (less) likely to manage earnings upward via abnormal accruals in quarters of higher (lower) sentiment. The findings of managers’ strategic use of abnormal accruals show the need for increased attention from boards of directors, auditors and regulators to heightened managerial incentives to overstate earnings and to report optimistic earnings numbers during periods of high investor sentiment.     

Does Noninformative Text Affect Investor Behavior?

This article demonstrates that easily processed texts affect investor trading behavior even in the absence of any informational content. We examine the trading symbols of US firms and find that stocks with clever tickers (those that are actual words in the English language) are more liquid, as measured by higher turnover and trading volume, as well as lower spreads. Furthermore, clever ticker stocks are traded more by uninformed investors and have larger market reactions on earnings announcement days. These results suggest that ticker fluency facilitates trading by improving the firm's visibility among retail investors through attention grabbing and memorization.     

Does IFRS Mandatory Adoption Affect Information Asymmetry in the Stock Market?

The purpose of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), adopted mandatorily by European listed firms in 2005, is to increase the transparency and the comparability of accounting information, which should have led to improvements in these firms’ information environments. This study uses market microstructure proxies for information asymmetry to examine the effects of IFRS adoption on the level of information asymmetry in the Spanish stock market. Therefore, we consider a setting with substantial differences between local standards – Spanish Accounting Standards (SAS) ? and IFRS and where the level of enforcement is low. By controlling for conventional determinants of information asymmetry and firms’ characteristics that influence their information environments, we find a reduction of information asymmetry after IFRS adoption. Our findings suggest that the mandatory switch from local accounting standards to IFRS conveys benefits to the market, even when the enforcement level is not strong.     

Non-linear Dependence in Stock Returns: Does Trading Frequency Matter?

The UK has a quote-driven pure dealer market structure that is very different from order driven markets such as the NYSE and Japanese markets. This paper investigates non-linear dependence in stock returns for an exhaustive sample of UK stocks for a 21 year period. The results are analysed on the basis of trading frequency. It is found that non-linear dependence is highly significant in all cases for both individual stocks and stock portfolios formed on the basis of trading frequency. The non-linear dependence is primarily over a one day interval, although statistically significant non-linear dependence exists consistently even up to five trading days. Most of the non-linear dependence is in the form of ARCH-type conditional heteroskedasticity. However, statistically significant non-linearity in addition to an EGARCH(1,1) dependence also appears to be present. This additional non-linearity is greater for individual stocks than for portfolios and greater for smaller, less-liquid portfolios. Non-linear dependence does not appear to be caused by non-stationarity in underlying economic fundamentals or by non-linearity in the conditional mean. However, low dimensional chaos is not generally supported. The limited evidence on chaotic behaviour is stronger for portfolios with long price adjustment delays across component stocks. The main results are consistent with US studies on stock indices, suggesting that the process generating non-linear dependence is not dependent on market microstructure characteristics.     

How Did the 2003 Dividend Tax Cut Affect Stock Prices?

We test the hypothesis that the 2003 dividend tax cut boosted US stock prices and thereby lowered the cost of equity capital. Using an event‐study methodology, we attempt to identify an aggregate stock market effect by comparing the behavior of US common stock prices with that of foreign equities and the equities of real estate investment trusts (REITs). We also examine the relative cross‐sectional response of prices of high‐ and low‐dividend‐paying stocks. We do not find any imprint of the dividend tax cut news on the value of the aggregate US stock market. On the other hand, high‐dividend stocks outperformed low‐dividend stocks by a few percentage points over the event windows, suggesting that the tax cut may have induced asset reallocation within equity portfolios. Finally, the positive abnormal return on nondividend paying US stocks in 2003 does not appear to be tied to tax cut news.     

How Do Institutional Factors Affect International Real Estate Returns?

Prior international real estate studies recognize the importance of country-specific factors for explaining real estate security returns. Using firm level observations from the FTSE NAREIT/EPRA Index for 2004?C2006, we construct a set of multifactor multivariate statistical regression models to identify and pin-point country-specific institutional features that determine differences for excess real estate security returns. Our analyses indicate that the excess real estate returns (i.e., required risk premiums) are, in part, determined by the quality of a country??s legal system and the corporate governance environment, controlling for various country-specific macro-economic variables and firm-level characteristics. We further find that the impact of institutional factors on international real estate returns is more prominent in the Asia-Pacific Region, and recent development of the REIT structure across the world does not alter the importance of corporate governance and legal system quality for determining real estate returns.     

Does Trading Volume Contain Information to Predict Stock Returns? Evidence from China's Stock Markets

This paper examines empirical contemporaneous and causal relationships between trading volume, stock returns and return volatility in China's four stock exchanges and across these markets. We find that trading volume does not Granger-cause stock market returns on each of the markets. As for the cross-market causal relationship in China's stock markets, there is evidence of a feedback relationship in returns between Shanghai A and Shenzhen B stocks, and between Shanghai B and Shenzhen B stocks. Shanghai B return helps predict the return of Shenzhen A stocks. Shanghai A volume Granger-causes return of Shenzhen B. Shenzhen B volume helps predict the return of Shanghai B stocks. This paper also investigates the causal relationship among these three variables between China's stock markets and the US stock market and between China and Hong Kong. We find that US return helps predict returns of Shanghai A and Shanghai B stocks. US and Hong Kong volumes do not Granger-cause either return or volatility in China's stock markets. In short, information contained in returns, volatility, and volume from financial markets in the US and Hong Kong has very weak predictive power for Chinese financial market variables.     

Emerging Market Instability: Do Sovereign Ratings Affect Country Risk and Stock Returns?

Changes in sovereign debt ratings and outlooks affect financialmarkets in emerging economies. They affect not only the instrumentbeing rated (bonds) but also stocks. They directly impact themarkets of the countries rated and generate cross-country contagion.The effects of rating and outlook changes are stronger duringcrises, in nontransparent economies, and in neighboring countries.Upgrades tend to take place during market rallies, whereas downgradesoccur during downturns, providing support to the idea that creditrating agencies contribute to the instability in emerging financialmarkets.     

How Wise Are Crowds? Insights from Retail Orders and Stock Returns

We analyze the role of retail investors in stock pricing using a database uniquely suited for this purpose. The data allow us to address selection bias concerns and to separately examine aggressive (market) and passive (limit) orders. Both aggressive and passive net buying positively predict firms’ monthly stock returns with no evidence of return reversal. Only aggressive orders correctly predict firm news, including earnings surprises, suggesting they convey novel cash flow information. Only passive net buying follows negative returns, consistent with traders providing liquidity and benefiting from the reversal of transitory price movements. These actions contribute to market efficiency.     

How Does Uncertainty Resolution Affect VC Syndication?

We use the external certification due to the FDA 510(k) clearance process in the medical device industry as a natural experiment and analyze the dynamics of the syndicate formation of venture capital (VC) firms under various levels of uncertainty. We test several nonmutually exclusive hypotheses on project selection, second opinion, collusion, and diversification. Our results suggest that FDA 510(k) clearance serves as an outside certification and reduces uncertainty leading to greater amounts of capital flowing into the company from a larger group of investors. Our results also suggest that experienced VC firms are able to identify promising projects early on without the need for external 510(k) certification or second opinion.     

How Does Asymmetric Information Affect Catering Behavior?

This study examines the association between information asymmetry and payout policy, and how asymmetric information affects catering behavior. Using forecast error and forecast dispersion as information asymmetry variables, this study finds that the more information asymmetry the firms face, the less likely they will increase dividends. Meanwhile, the effects of information asymmetry dominate over those of catering incentives for managers to decide dividend policy. Finally, our empirical results demonstrate that the signaling theory holds when dividend yield is high or market underestimates the EPS of firms. In addition, companies use share repurchases as a substitute for dividend increases, and take retained earnings into account when making dividend policies.     

How Does Unobserved Heterogeneity Affect Value Relevance?

Most value relevance (VR) studies consider an accounting item value relevant if the regression coefficient (RC) of that item is statistically significant. Unobservable heterogeneity leads to biased RCs, interpretation of which generates incorrect inferences. To obtain unbiased RCs, the effect of unobservable heterogeneity on RCs should be mitigated. As two dimensions of unobservable heterogeneity are at the firm level and time level, outcomes with the following unobservable heterogeneity concerns are discussed: i) no fixed‐effects (FE); ii) firm FE; iii) time FE; and iv) two‐way (firm and time) FE. By employing a sample of Turkish firms from 2005–2014, we report several findings. First, we find that regressions with firm (time) FE yield large (low) RCs vis‐à‐vis regressions with no FE, and regressions with two‐way FE generate balanced RCs compared to the others. Second, we compare RCs with i and iv, and conclude that the book value of equity becomes more value relevant while net income does not after controlling for unobservable heterogeneity. Last, we arbitrarily divide the entire period into two to reveal how unobserved endogeneity affects the comparison of RCs belonging to different periods. Our outcomes robustly reveal that unobserved endogeneity leads to erroneous RC comparisons.     

How Does Sustainability Disclosure Drive Behavior Change?

In 2011, as part of the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP), over 3,700 companies disclosed information about their energy use, emissions, risks, opportunities, and strategy to their institutional investors and customers. In this article, the Chief Innovation Officer of CDP discusses five ways that such disclosure is expected to lead to changes in corporate behavior. The first two are “internal” mechanisms that tend to encourage constructive change more or less directly as a result of going through the process of disclosure. One is known as “WGMGM,” which is shorthand for the often‐cited principle that “what gets measured gets managed.” The second is the tendency of disclosure to bring about valuable changes in strategic thinking. The next two are mechanisms that work to effect change through “external” channels. One relies on the use of data to enable investors, regulators, and other corporate stakeholders to draw comparisons among companies and industries in assessing the value implications of climate change disclosure. The second involves competitor benchmarking and the growing use of data in investment research. Fifth and last, recent evidence suggests that a growing number of investors are willing to raise the bar in terms of the expectations they place on companies to act responsibly now in the face of current and expected future changes. Each of these five change processes are discussed while citing evidence drawn from CDP's long experience of managing the disclosure process and working with both investors and companies to convert data into action.     

Are Securitized Real Estate Returns more Predictable than Stock Returns?

This paper examines whether the predictability of securitized real estate returns differs from that of stock returns. It also provides a cross-country comparison of securitized real estate return predictability. In contrast to most of the literature on this issue, the analysis is not based on a multifactor asset pricing framework as such analyses may bias the results. We use a time series approach and thus create a level playing field to compare the predictability of the two asset classes. Forecasts are performed with ARMA and ARMA–EGARCH models and evaluated by comparing the entire empirical distributions of prediction errors, as well as with a trading strategy. The results, based on daily data for the 1990–2007 period, show that securitized real estate returns are generally more predictable than stock returns in countries with mature and well established REIT regimes. ARMA–EGARCH models are found to have portfolio outperformance potential even in the presence of transaction costs, with generally better results for securitized real estate than for stocks.     

How Does Local Economy Affect Commercial Property Performance?

The real estate literature recognizes the real option to invest in capital expenditures (CAPEX) or sell a property but treats these options as independent. We show that these real options are interconnected. We provide empirical evidence that, consistent with the real option framework, CAPEX increases in income growth expectations but declines in their volatility; that CAPEX are partially capitalized into property market values; and that CAPEX significantly reduce the subsequent likelihood of sale. We also present evidence that, controlling for market timing, past property performance influences CAPEX but not disposition choices, consistent with a value-add investment strategy.

     

Do Beta Pricing Models Explain January Mean Reversion in Stock Returns?

Jegadeesh (1991) finds evidence of January mean reversion in stock returns. In this paper we attempt to distinguish between two competing economic explanations of January mean reversion in returns: (1) mispricing in irrational markets versus (2) predictable time variation in security risk premia. Excess portfolio returns are decomposed into “explained” and “unexplained” components using the Fama-French (1993) pricing model. The explained excess returns exhibit January mean reversion. The unexplained excess returns are not mean reverting. Mean reversion is therefore consistent with rational pricing in the framework of the Fama-French model. Mean reversion can be attributed to the component of return related to a relative distress factor (SMB). A comparison with the Chen, Roll, and Ross (1986) macroeconomic factors reveals that mean reversion is due to the components related to SMB and bond default premium.     

How Does Information Disclosure Affect Bank Systemic Risk in the Presence of a Deposit Insurance System?

ABSTRACT

This article establishes a dynamic game with incomplete information to theoretically analyze the influence mechanism of information disclosure on systemic risk in the presence of a deposit insurance system. To verify the mechanism, we use panel data on 247 global banks in 41 countries during the period 2006 to 2015 in an empirical analysis. Our article finds that a high degree of information disclosure can reduce deposit insurance premiums and weaken the negative incentive from a bailout by regulatory authorities. Moreover, the effect of deposit insurance on financial stability is not apparent, but the synergistic effect of deposit insurance and information disclosure reduces bank systemic risk. Furthermore, different deposit insurance designs affect bank behavior, so it is crucial for bank supervisors to create proper deposit insurance systems, which are helpful in strengthening market discipline and preventing moral hazard thus contributing to a stable financial environment. Therefore, under the deposit insurance system, regulatory authorities should strive to improve the standard of information disclosure to ensure systemic stability.     

Does Monetary Policy Affect Income Inequality in the Euro Area?

This paper examines how the ECB's expansionary monetary policy affects income inequality in 10 euro area countries over the period 1999–2014. We distinguish two channels—labor-market and financial—through which monetary policy can have distributional effects. The labor-market channel is captured by wages and employment and the financial channel by asset prices and returns. We find that expansionary monetary policy in the euro area reduces income inequality, especially in the periphery countries. The labor-market channel enhances the equalizing effect: monetary expansion reduces income inequality stronger by raising wages and employment. There is limited evidence for the financial channel.