Discount rates and shadow prices for public investment

This paper extends the Harberger–Sandmo–Drèze model for public discount rates to a many-good economy. It derives a formula for discount rates which are specific to each public enterprise or agency and used by them to discount future outputs and inputs evaluated at market prices. Such an approach is shown to be more efficient than that of simply using a single rate for all public projects. It is also more practical than asking each public firm to use second-best shadow prices in their analyses of investment projects.The general results are first provided; then, simple cases are considered and numerical examples presented to help interpret our formula and analyse its main determinants.     

Intertemporally consistent shadow prices in an open economy: Estimates for Cyprus

In the practical estimation of shadow prices, the assumption that the economy is on a steady-state growth path is often invoked, usually implicitly. Most developing countries are far from this trajectory. We derive shadow prices where the dynamic evolution of the economy is endogenously determined, important influences being initial conditions and the constraints on foreign borrowing. Hence, the resulting (dated) shadow prices of tradeables, nontradeables, labor and the accounting rate of interest (ARI) are mutually consistent. Estimates for the Republic of Cyprus show that derivations from steady-state growth can be significant, leading to large fluctuations in the ARI and thereby making the timing of investment projects crucial.     

Competitive prices for a stochastic input–output model with infinite time horizon

Consider a one-sector stochastic input–output model with infinite time horizon. The technology in each time period exhibits constant returns to scale on positive linear combinations of a finite number of basic input–output pairs. Furthermore, perfect information is available as a filtration generated by finite partitions of the state space. By definition, competitive prices require expected profit maximization in every time period. The Riesz representation of a sequence of competitive price functionals yields a state-price deflator with a supermartingale property. We show that there exists a competitive price system for some feasible program if and only if there is No Free Production (NFP). Furthermore, there exists a competitive price system for a particular program if and only if if NFP holds and the program is short-run efficient. This model includes a securities market model with or without convex cone trading constraints as a special case. Under these circumstances, NFP reduces to No Arbitrage and we recover a version of the fundamental theorem of asset pricing. The author expresses gratitude for the advice of two anonymous referees, one who pointed out the simple way to prove the key lemma and the other who helped integrate the conclusions into the existent literature.     

Delivering endogenous inertia in prices and output

This paper presents a DGE model in which aggregate price level inertia is generated endogenously by the optimizing behavior of price-setting firms. All the usual sources of inertia are absent here i.e., all firms are simultaneously free to change their price once every period and face no adjustment costs in doing so. Despite this, the model generates persistent movements in aggregate output and inflation in response to a nominal shock. Two modifications of a standard one-quarter pre-set pricing model deliver these results: learning-by-doing and habit formation in leisure. While the model delivers persistence, simulations based on estimated shocks to tfp and money growth suggest both output and inflation are too volatile relative to the data and fail to closely follow the historical time series.     

Economic efficiency and shadow prices in an infinite horizon model: Reply

Journal of Economics -     

Unanticipated money,output, and prices in the small economy

A macroeconomic model for an open economy experiencing both domestic and international monetary disturbances is given. Expectations are assumed to be rational. Particular attention is focused on the reduced form coefficients for unanticipated domestic and foreign monetary disturbances under alternative exchange rate regimes.     

The causal nexus of money,output and prices in Malaysia

Using Geweke's approach to Wiener–Granger causality,bidirectional causation between money supply and nominal output were detected. Inflation in Malaysia is essentially a monetary phenomenon. The empirical findings suggest that by controlling money supply, the central bank might be able to successfully maintain price stability at producer's level but not at consumer's level unless narrow money stock is bring targeted. Serious attempts by the central bank to tighten money supply could have a strong feedback on real output and even instaneous impact on nominal output     

Stock prices, inflation and output: Evidence from wavelet analysis

The negative relationship between real stock return and inflation puzzled many as it contradicts conventional Fisherian wisdom. Fama [Fama, E.F. (1981), “Stock returns, real activity, inflation and money”, American Economic Review, 71(September), 545–564.] gave an explanation for this negative relationship with two propositions that links real stock return and inflation through real output. This study revisits Fama's hypothesis for India in the post-liberalized period from a developing country perspective. Examining this relationship on the time-scale decomposition from a wavelet multi-resolution analysis suggests that Fama's hypothesis holds only for the long time scale and remains as a puzzle for the other time scales.     

Habit formation in state-dependent pricing models: Implications for the dynamics of output and prices

This paper examines the role of habit formation in a standard state-dependent pricing (SDP) model. Incorporating habit formation helps the SDP model to generate hump-shaped and more persistent output responses under a monetary shock. More importantly, incorporating habit formation causes dramatic changes in firm-level pricing behaviors and, as a result, the aggregate price index.     

Unanticipated money,output, employment and prices in a develoing economy: the korean case

This paper examines the effect of unanticipated money on output, unemployment and prices in Korea. The empirical results tend to reject the policy ineffectiveness proposition (PIP) in most cases. They show that both anticipated and unantipated money affect output and prices, in contract with the PIP. Mixed results are obtained for the effect of monetary variables on unemployment. The statistical results show that the regular OLS two step estimates yield t values which are upward biases by 0–27% as compared with the consistent estimates of the variance-covariance matrix that are obtained in this study. [E 51]     

Optimal use of futures markets when input and output prices are uncertain

The purpose of this paper is to extend the analysis of the use of futures markets by a competitive firm facing an uncertain market price for its output to the case where both input and output prices are uncertain.     

The dynamic causality between commodity prices,inflation and output in China: a bootstrap rolling window approach

In this article, we empirically study the time-varying bilateral causality between commodity prices, inflation and output in China. We first perform a series of parameter stability tests and find strong evidence of instability in the parameters estimated for Granger causality tests. We then use the bootstrap rolling window approach to test the causality and find that the causality from commodity prices to both inflation and output is time-varying in the entire sample period and asymmetric in different phases of the business cycle. We also find evidence of the causality from both inflation and output to commodity prices in certain sub-periods. Further discussion on the cost-price mechanism through which the economy fluctuates cyclically suggests that the dynamic causality between commodity prices and inflation contributes to understanding the nature of economic fluctuations and to forecasting economic crises. Overall, our results provide a new perspective to disentangle economic fluctuations.     

Conditions for a CAPM equilibrium with positive prices

This paper examines the conditions required to guarantee positive prices in the CAPM. Positive prices imply an upper bound on the equity premium. This upper bound depends on the degree of diversity of firms’ fundamentals, and it is independent of investors’ preferences. In economies with realistically diverse assets the only positive-price CAPM equilibrium theoretically possible is a degenerate one, with zero equity premium. Furthermore, when specific standard investors’ preferences are assumed, the CAPM equilibrium with positive prices may be altogether impossible. A possible solution to these fundamental problems may be offered by the segmented-market version of the model.     

Inflation uncertainty, growth uncertainty, oil prices, and output growth in the UK

This study examines the transmission and response of inflation uncertainty and output uncertainty on inflation and output growth in the UK using a bi-variate EGARCH model. Results suggest that inflation uncertainty has positive and significant effects on inflation before the inflation-targeting period, but that the effect is significantly negative after the inflation-targeting period. On the other hand, output uncertainty has a negative and significant effect on inflation and a positive effect on growth, while oil price rises significantly increase inflation for the UK. Results also indicate that inflation uncertainty significantly reduces output growth before and after the inflation-targeting period. These findings are robust and the Generalized impulse response functions corroborate the conclusions. These results have important implications for an inflation-targeting monetary policy, and for stabilization policy in general.     

Assessing productivity changes in UK hospitals reflecting technology and input prices

In this study Malmquist productivity indexes are used to evaluate the performance of acute hospitals in the UK over the period after the introduction of the internal market in the National Health Service in 1991. The indexes are computed using nonparametric programming, known as Data Envelopment Analysis, and they are decomposed into multiple component measures to give insights into the trends in hospital performance. Overall it is found that productivity regressed in the year after the reforms but progressed thereafter so that overall there was a net progress both as far as the inputs and costs are concerned. Productivity progress is mainly due to overall efficiency progress, which in turn is mostly attributed to allocative efficiency improvements. Technical change resulted in a small reduction in the amount of inputs used but also at higher production costs, because of a worsening in the match between input mixes and relative input prices. However, it is suggested that the gains in productivity are not high enough to argue that the internal market has had a significant impact on productivity. Finally, it is argued that the methodologies employed here can be a valuable evaluative and managerial tool in the context of the new NHS reforms about to be introduced.