房价与地价的动态调整关系

研究目的:探讨地价与房价间的动态调整关系,为政府决策提供支持。研究方法:门限协整理论,EGARCH模型和实证分析法。研究结果:(1)房价和地价呈正相关;(2)地价变化是房价变化的Granger原因,地价和房价之间存在协整关系;(3)地价与房价在偏离均衡时其调整回归系数是非对称的。研究结论:购房者、开发商对利空利好消息的反应差异和中央与地方的利益博弈及各相关利益机构对房地产政策"选择性执行"是非对称性调整现象产生的原因,提出改进土地拍卖制度、平衡中央地方财力、优化政绩考核标准、强化对地方执行各项房地产政策的监管等建议。     

房地产市场中土地价格刚性上涨探讨

研究目的:针对近年房地产价格持续上涨的局面,从内在动因、组织形式和操作工具角度,剖析房地产市场中土地价格上涨的内在刚性机制.研究方法:制度经济学和新古典经济学边际分析方法.研究结果:为实现中国房地产市场的持续健康发展,应从三方面着手,即:严格执行土地规划,抑制供地冲动;淡化并逐步取消土地储备制度;土地出让方式实现"单一规则".     

Price Stabilization and the Risk-Averse Firm

An analytically simple and tractable approach to firm-level welfare analysis of complete and partial mean-preserving price stabilization for producers with general risk-averse preferences facing a stochastic technology is developed. Necessary and sufficient conditions for price stabilization to be welfare enhancing are derived under different assumptions of the producer's preferences and the producer's technology. Existing stabilization results for the risk-averse firm are shown to be corollaries of these more general results.     

试论辩证地价观

研究目的建立新的辩证地价观.研究方法运用唯物辨证法中普遍联系和变化发展的基本观点研究、地价.研究结果(1)地价体系具有整体性、层次性、开放性和结构性的特点.(2)地价内涵并非片面和一成不变的,地价的影响因素变化,其内涵也发生变化.研究结论辩证地价观的建立对地价研究与实践都具有重要意义.     

中国碳交易价格与电力价格相关性研究

以广东的碳交易市场和电力市场为主要研究对象,考虑到电力市场是产生碳排的因素市场之一,而碳排价格也会对电力成本产生影响,因此利用多种动态模型得出碳交易市场与电力市场两者之间确实有交错影响关系。最后还从发展角度对改善碳排、实现技术改革、发展地方经济提出了建议。     

A Heteroskedastic Multivariate Tobit Analysis of Price Dynamics in the Presence of Price Floors

This article presents an econometric analysis of the effects of price floors on price dynamics and price volatility in a multimarket context. We investigate the implications of a government price-support program providing a censoring mechanism to the price determination process. The analysis uses a dynamic multivariate Tobit model under time-varying volatility. The model is applied to the U.S. dairy markets with a special focus on the effects of government price-support programs in a period of market liberalization. The econometric analysis provides useful information on the multimarket effects of price supports on price dynamics and price volatility.     

Price Cycles and Asymmetric Price Transmission in the U.S. Pork Market

Economists have proposed several plausible explanations for observed price transmission asymmetries in commodity markets. Unfortunately, the econometric methods commonly used in such studies cannot empirically distinguish pricing behavior under the competing theories. We argue that the theories may be classified by firm responses to high- and low-frequency price cycles and use Engle's band spectrum regression to test the symmetry of high- and low-frequency cycles in weekly pork prices. The findings indicate that changes in wholesale prices are asymmetrically transmitted to retail prices in relatively low-frequency cycles, which does not support search costs and other high-frequency explanations. Conversely, wholesale pork prices asymmetrically adjust to changes in farm prices at all frequencies.     

我国禽肉价格波动及影响因素分析

本文通过对我国近年来禽肉价格的波动情况进行分析，探讨了导致禽肉价格剧烈波动的各种影响因素，并进一步应用对数线性模型测算出各种因素的影响程度，预测未来禽肉价格的变化趋势，提出相应的政策建议。     

地价与住房价格比例关系再检视

研究目的:探讨各国地价与住房价格的比例关系,分析其历史变动和区域差异,并与中国的情况相比较。研究方法:文献法和比较分析。研究结果:各国地价占住房价格的比例呈现随时间不断上升的态势,而各国内部不同区域间地价占住房价格的比例也有很大差异。研究结论:与各国相比,中国不少城市地价占住房价格的比例不算很高,但在一些城市,如北京、广州,地价占住房价格的比例上升较快,值得注意。     

Price Asymmetry in the International Wheat Market

Most wheat exports are accounted for by a limited number of countries with different policy regimes and specializing, for the most part, in particular classes of wheat. Under these circumstances, there is likely to be considerable interaction among the major exporting countries in the determination of wheat prices. In this paper, price linkages between the U.S. and other exporting countries (Canada, the European Union, Argentina and Australia) in the world wheat market are investigated. After determining that the direction of causality is from U. S. prices to the prices of other exporting countries, the nature of the price linkages is studied. The results suggest that the major exporting countries respond asymmetrically to U.S. price changes. The degree of asymmetry differs from one exporting country to another, Argentina and the European Union show greater response to falling prices than to rising prices, while the opposite is true for Canada and Australia.     

Aggregation and the Nature of Price Expectations

Market liquidity requires differences of opinion among traders, but market behavior is often modeled using just one representative agent. This paper aggregates trading activity across many traders, at least one of which has rational expectations. Equilibrium price expectations depend on individual risk preferences and the expectations of all traders. Results indicate that positive feedback traders comprise a statistically significant minority of traders that has grown with the prevalence of commodity pools.     

不同等级城市房价与地价关系的规律初探

研究目的:对房价与地价关系进行因果关系检验,探索其地域等级差异规律,以期为因地制宜地制定房价调控政策提供参考。研究方法:对比分析法,ECM,Granger因果关系检验。研究结果:(1)地价对房价的短期影响表现为:三线城市最强,二线次之,一线最差;房价对地价的短期作用表现为:二线城市强于一线和三线城市;(2)房价与地价的相互关系在中期稳定性差,且不同城市表现出变动的随机性;(3)地价对房价的长期作用表现为一线、二线和三线城市逐渐增强;房价对地价的长期影响则恰好相反。研究结论:(1)房价与地价关系特征相似的城市,在相关政策的制定上可以彼此借鉴;(2)房价调控政策要将时效性考虑在内;(3)房价调控政策的制定要依据城市等级而有所差异。     

基于Granger检验的地价与房价关系研究

研究目的:探讨地价与房价的因果关系。研究方法:实证研究法与计量经济学分析方法。研究结果:在短期,武汉市房价与地价互为因果,其中地价是房价的Granger原因的程度更大;在长期,房价与地价之间没有显著的因果关系。研究结论:在利用土地政策进行宏观调控时,宜多采用内生的政策工具;继续强化对土地投机的抑制政策,可相应减少政府用来“熨平市场”所需的土地储备量,以缓解土地储备资金不足之困。     

地价和房价:一个有关鸡与蛋的话题

高房价的始作俑者是不是高地价?高地价的始作俑者是不是土地招标拍卖挂牌制度?     

Intracity Retail Food Price Behavior And The Impact Of Price Enquiries*

Pricing strategies of retail food organizations have perennially intrigued agricultural economists. in the pricing tactics of large integrated retail food chains considered in this paper there are implications for all segments of the economy. Despite the relative difficulty of obtaining data and objective measurements regarding pricing performance, the results of this study outline the need for action by policy-makers to remove an undesirable fact of competitive behaviour. Moreover, the results of the study further document the problems of using concentration indices to describe competitive behavior. A need for a realistic re-evaluation of current market performance guidelines and retailer food-pricing tactics is indicated. LE COMPORTEMENT DANS LES PRIX D'ALIMENTATION DE DÉTAIL ET L'IMPACT DANS LA DEMandE DES PRIX La stratégie des prix sur les marchés d'alimentation de détail a toujours intéressé les économistes agricoles. Dans les tactiques employées par les grands magasins à chaîne, mentionné dans cet article, il y a des implications pour tous les secteurs de l'économie. Malgré les difficultés à obtenir les données, et les mesures objectives relativement à la performance des prix, les résultats de cette étude soulignent un besoin urgent de la part des organismes, d'enlever tout fait indésirable dans le comportement et la concurrence, De plus, les résultats de cette étude documentent les problèmes qui existent en employant les indices pour décrire ce comportement. Un besoin pour une réévaluation de la performance dans le courant du marché et les tactiques employées par les grands magasins à chaîne paraîent être nécessaire.     

Competitive Storage,Biofuels and the Corn Price

The use of corn as an ethanol feedstock has been stimulated by US biofuels policy. This has changed both the position and the slope of the corn demand curve and increased the pass-through from crude oil to corn prices. The principal constraints on ethanol consumption and production have been regulation (the biofuels mandate), capacity constraints in ethanol refining and the blend wall, which puts a ceiling on the ethanol content of gasoline. The incidence of these constraints has varied over time. We model these impacts within the competitive storage model using structural break regression analysis. Our analysis shows that the pass-through has varied over time in relation to the share of ethanol in total US corn use. Our analysis provides robust empirical evidence of an increase in the pass-through from crude oil to corn prices over the period from the start of the century to a high level over 2004–2008 when corn use in ethanol was growing very fast. This enhanced sensitivity was driven by competition for corn as an ethanol feedstock with stock demand exerting strong upward pressure on the corn price.     

浅议加强林业企业行业价格自律

在市场经济条件下,林业行业必须在生产销售上通过行业内部的价格自律,从源头做起,提高整个行业的经济效益,拓宽发展空间,在林业的改革、发展和脱困上走出一条新路。     

林地资源的价格体系研究

由于林地资源的分类利用和林地权利转让的内涵不同,以及林地市场管理的需要,林地资源价格体系应包括:林地资源分类价格体系,林地资源产权价格体系和林地资源管理价格体系。这三类价格体系是相互联系,反映价格内涵的不同和评价层次的不同。     

Agricultural Producer Price Expectations

Producer price expectations underlie much of agricultural supply analysis. While producer price expectations would ideally be discovered experimentally, this is too costly. Instead, producer price expectations are usually represented in agricultural supply analysis by easily obtained hypothesized expectation formulations. In most cases, the hypothesized expectation formulations are functions of past prices. However, other formulations are sometimes used, such as current cash and futures prices, or initial payments in the case of grains marketed by the Canadian Wheat Board. This paper compares actual producer price expectations with a variety of hypothesized expectation formulations for wheat and canola in Saskatchewan. A test developed by Granger is used to determine the proxy models that are significantly dominant. The model that dominates as a proxy in the case of wheat price expectations is the two-year declining-weight moving average. The two models that dominate as a proxy in the case of canola price expectations are the first-order autoregressive and, as well, the two-year declining-weight moving average. There is no significant difference between the two models. Somewhat surprising is the performance of formulations based on futures prices. These formulations perform very poorly in representing producers' price expectations, even though they are found to be among the most accurate predictors of actual commodity prices. An even more interesting observation is the performance of the futures price model in the canola market. Even though the November contract in January explains very little of the variation in the actual commodity prices for that year, its error in predicting canola prices is not significantly greater than that of the best performing, the four-year declining-weight moving average, based upon the root mean squared error criterion.     

城市土地价格调查与地价动态监测体系建设

城市地价及其动态变化信息是政府制定地价管理和调控政策的重要依据。通过在30多个试点城市进行土地价格调查,完成城市土地定级与基准地价更新,同时建立若干个城市地价动态监测点,并对其进行定期更新与维护,利用GIS技术、因特网技术及数据库系统等理论,建立城市基准地价动态更新和城市地价动态监测信息系统及城市地价动态监测网。本文阐述了城市土地价格调查与地价动态监测体系建设的总体目标、主要任务和技术措施以及城市地价动态监测体系的结构与功能。