Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?

This paper demonstrates that developing countries differ considerably from their developed counterparts when focus is on the nature and characteristics of short-run macroeconomic fluctuations. Cycles are generally shorter, and the stylized facts of business cycles across countries are more diverse than those of the rather uniform industrialized countries. Supply-side models are generally superior in explaining changes in output, but a “one-size fits all” approach in formulating policy is inappropriate. Our results also illustrate the critical importance of understanding business regularities as a stepping-stone in the process of designing appropriate stabilization policy and macroeconomic management in developing countries.     

IMF conditionality: Conceptual problems and policy alternatives

This paper argues that the main issue damaging relations between developing countries and the International Monetary Fund is the latter's position that external disequilibria are always a consequence of excess aggregate domestic demand, caused by excessive credit expansion. As a result, Fund sponsored stabilization programs center on demand contraction through a credit crunch and may establish stricter domestic performance criteria than necessary to attain the balance-of-payments objectives. The author suggests that the IMF establish a two-tier conditionality system, which he calls the “hands-off” approach, with one tier composed exclusively of balance-of-payments or foreign exchange denominated variables, and the other of domestic currency denominated variables. The two-tier system would allow more flexibility in compliance assessment and might reduce substantially the number of breakdowns of Fund programs.A revised “hands-on” approach for the Fund is also suggested. The author critiques the recessive biases of the currently used financial analytical exercises and makes specific proposals to introduce “growth exercises” to establish the foreign credit requirements of a growth-oriented stabilization program and thus to introduce performance criteria for creditor countries and banks — a form of “reciprocal conditionality.”     

External assistance and the peace process in El Salvador

The recent experience of El Salvador offers valuable lessons for economic policy in post-conflictual transitions. In the wake of a negotiated settlement to a civil war, economic policy must support the adjustment toward peace. In the short run, policy must promote not only macroeconomic stabilization but also political stabilization. This requires the mobilization of resources and the maintenance of political will for implementation of immediate peace-related needs such as the reintegration of excombatants into civil society and the strengthening of democratic institutions. Long-run policy objectives must encompass not only the attainment of macroeconomic balances, but also equity, that is, balance in the distribution of income and wealth; balanced investment in human, natural, and physical capital; and democratization in the broad sense of a more balanced distribution of power. In the end, policies which fail to build on the crucial complementarities between peace and development are unlikely to achieve either goal.     

Macroeconomic policy,output, and inflation in the former Czechoslovakia: Some evidence from the VAR analysis

Both macroeconomic policy and structural adjustment factors influenced the dynamics of output and inflation in the former Czechoslovakia during the first phase of its transition from central planning to markets. The results of VAR analysis indicate that, following price liberalization, the impact of structural adjustment processes on the level of output was somewhat stronger than the impact of macroeconomic policy. Moreover, it seems likely that a "looser" macroeconomic policy—advocated by many as a countermeasure to a large decline in industrial production—would only worsen the situation, bringing both higher inflation and a larger decline in industrial production.     

What role for IMF surveillance?

This paper reviews two recent reports on the international monetary system, one by the Group of 10 (industrial countries) and the other by the Group of 24 (developing countries). It contrasts their recommendations for improving policy surveillance by the International Monetary Fund. Its own recommendations include the strengthening of “enhanced surveillance” to make it more formal without making it more onerous, the introduction of “shadow conditionality” to give guidance to governments about their eligibility to draw on the Fund, and the further development of multilateral surveillance along lines proposed at the Tokyo Summit. It would broaden that process, however, by shifting the focus from policy compatibility, defined with reference to exchange-rate behavior, to policy quality, defined with reference to the behavior of global aggregates such as the growth rate of world trade. The paper examines the use of target zones to manage exchange rates and argues that it would not weaken the case for multilateral surveillance, which is needed not only in setting the zones but also to make sure that policies adopted by participating countries do not impart an inflationary or deflationary bias to the international economy.     

The Washington Consensus: A post-mortem

After guiding development policies for nearly 20 years, the “Washington Consensus” lies in shambles. Although selected components remain relevant for development policies around the world, some specifics of the broader policy “package” and, more generally, the concept of a standardized package of policies applicable to all developing countries has clearly been discredited.Criticism has been directed at the assumed link from economic liberalization of international trade and financial flows to more rapid economic growth. Apart from a handful of developing countries, admittedly including some large and important ones, most of the world saw little of the promised economic benefit from widespread and on-going trade and financial liberalization, initially. Many countries actually regressed, when evaluated against broader socio-economic development goals, including income inequality. We conclude that differences in initial conditions (history, culture, geography and levels of industrial and institutional development) preclude any single development policy package from being universally effective.     

Socialist development in an underdeveloped country: The case of Tanzania

The author attempts to draw on the experience of Tanzania in order to provide some comments on socialist investment strategies. Tanzania has been more successful in reorienting its programme of social investment than its investment programme for economic development. This failure stems from real differences within Tanzania, and among socialists generally, about appropriate socialist investment strategies for a country at Tanzania's stage of development. It also reflects the fact that socialism in Tanzania is a change imposed from the top, and the bureaucracy remains relatively immune from the pressures of the people and the poverty in which they live.     

The pressure towards protectionism: Is it systematic? A legacy of the recession? The result of policy to promote recovery?

In light of the concern being expressed in many national and international fora about the pressures towards protectionism, this paper explores the reasons for and the possible consequences of this new protectionist trend. The analysis is restricted to macroeconomic issues and policy situations. In answer to the question, ‘Can the current recovery be turned into durable economic growth, more evenly distributed among countries, across productive sectors, and throughout the population?’, the author replies in the affirmative on two conditions: (i) if macroeconomic and structural adjustments are pursued with unmitigated determination where needed; and (ii) if trade, the vital link among our economies, is allowed to revive worldwide. The core of the paper discusses four major unresolved policy issues that have important implications for world trade: (1) internal and external imbalances in the US recovery; (2) trade and underperformance in Europe; (3) the question of Japan and the Pacific NICs; and (4) external debt and adjustment in LDCs.     

Budgetary Consolidation in Europe: Quality, Economic Conditions, and Persistence

In this article we study the importance of the quality of fiscal adjustments and macroeconomic conditions for the persistence of budgetary consolidations. In contrast to previous work in this area, we do not arbitrarily predefine a measure of persistence to evaluate consolidation “success.” By employing duration analysis techniques, the length of a consolidation spell is rather determined endogenously. Our results based on a sample of industrialised OECD countries show that “consolidation fatigue” and the quality of fiscal consolidations are indeed important determinants of their longevity. Moreover, high debt–GDP ratio and fiscal tightening in other OECD countries raise the likelihood of consolidations to persist. Applying our results to European countries in the 1990s provides only weak evidence suggesting that the Maastricht process contributed much to the fiscal consolidations observed in Europe during the 1990s. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2002, 16(4), pp. 512–535. ZEI, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany, Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana; and CEPR; Strathclyde University, Glasgow, Scotland; and CEPR; and ECB, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311 Frankfurt a.M., Germany; and ZEI. © 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E61, E62, E65.     

The Limits of Pension Privatization: Lessons from Argentine Experience

The paper studies the operation of the mixed pension system established in Argentina in 1994. It points to the limitations that the new system has encountered to achieve some of the most important objectives of pension policy and pension reform. The analysis looks at the mechanisms affecting pension system performance, with particular attention to the way in which the new pension rules have interacted with the local macroeconomic, social, and political context. The empirical analysis of this experience is oriented to provide lessons for Argentina’s future reforms, as well as for many Latin American countries with similar pension arrangements.     

Resource allocation, equality of access and health

Based upon the experience of Tanzania, this paper relates resource allocation in the health sector to the output of health, by contrasting access to and utilization of available health services by urban and rural populations. The writer argues that increased health expenditures alone cannot yield an efficient health care return unless the additional expenditure is spread ‘thinly’, in keeping with the realities of population distribution, transport possibilities, and disease patterns in most poor countries. Detailed data are presented for recurrent and capital expenditures for health facilities at different levels, and the output of those institutions is considered in terms of the volume of services offered. Those services are then measured according to their utilization by urban and rural populations. Because referral systems are found to function only marginally, it is argued that further building of large hospitals is not justified in the present situation of most poor countries. Specifically, the writer describes the ways in which Tanzania is changing its inefficient and unjust health care system. The paper concludes that the major obstacles to change are not shortages of resources or technologic ignorance but social systems that do not place high value upon the health care needs of rural peasants. It is in this way that the professional and elitist interests of the few are often destructive of the needs of the many.     

An Ecological Footprint Approach to External Debt Relief

This paper applies Martinez-Alier’s [Environ. Values 2 (1993) 97] “ecological debt” concept to the problem of debt relief, exploring the possibility of compensatory transfers from rich to poor countries based on existing ecological balances. I employ recent estimates on ecological footprints and ecosystem values to estimate the ecological debt to be distributed among eligible transfer recipients––all less-developed countries (LDCs). The results provide a policy criterion for transfers in the event that future circumstances make large-scale international debt relief compulsory. The study probably underestimates the appropriate transfer amounts because of conservative assumptions regarding the environmental values and the size of the north’s ecological debt in physical terms.     

Financial repression and real output: Macroeconometric evidence from Yugoslavia

This paper examines the effects of financial repression on macroeconomic performance in Yugoslavia. Financial disintermediation is examined in detail. A vector autoregression analysis of monthly macroeconomic data for 1978–1986, a period of fairly steady policies, is estimated. In a robust result, the degree of central bank selective rediscounting of credit is shown to influence output negatively, which may be interpreted as indicating that interventions in financial markets are serving to “back losers” and impose other costs on the Yugoslav economy. The economy is Also found to be highly inelastic in output and employment. The findings lend insights into the causes and effects of the recent surge in inflation.     

Mexico from bust to boom: A political evaluation of the 1976–1979 stabilization programme

This paper evaluates Mexico's recent experience of economic stabilization policies (under the the 3-yr Extended Fund Facility arranged with the IMF in September 1976) from a comparative politics standpoint. By comparison with various South American experiences of inflation and stabilization that were discussed in the same Wilson Centre workshop, Mexico's short-term performance must be rated quite favourably. This was not a case in which Fund orthodoxy prevailed at every point, nor was the Fund analysis accepted without qualification by Mexico's policy-markers. At the end of the period, economic disequilibria, as measured by IMF criteria, remained considerably larger than the 3-yr plan had envisaged, but ‘confidence’ had been restored and rapid growth was in prospect. The interpretation offered in the paper is that Mexico's cyclical pattern of presidential politics largely determined the effective contents of the stabilization package, and that the resilience of the Mexican system of political management goes far to explain why the economic outcome was more favourable than in the South American cases. An accident of geological endowment (the nation's huge oil resources) certainly accentuated the process of recovery from ‘bust’ to ‘boom’, but this factor did not operate in isolation, and should not be considered an adequate explanation on its own. The impact of a geological endowment upon economic conditions depends upon political mediation. However, although this paper seeks to highlight the contribution of Mexican political management to the recent short-term economic improvement, it concludes with some qualifications. The final section considers some constraints on the scope and efficacy of Mexican ‘reformism’, particularly in relation to longer-term and more structural problems.     

The role of credibility in the cyclical properties of macroeconomic policies in emerging economies

Optimal stabilization policy is countercyclical, aiming at keeping output close to its potential. However it has been traditionally argued that emerging countries are unable to adopt countercyclical monetary and fiscal policies. Here we argue that the cyclical properties of macroeconomic policies depend critically on policy credibility. We test this proposition by making use of recent panel data for eleven emerging market economies and time series data for Chile. The evidence supports that countries with higher credibility, as reflected by lower country risk levels, are able to conduct countercyclical fiscal and monetary policies. Conversely, countries with less credible policies (and, therefore, with higher country risk spreads) contribute to larger cyclical fluctuations by applying procyclical policies. For Chile we find that both monetary and fiscal policies have been largely countercyclical after 1993. JEL no. E43, E52, E62     

Macroeconomic Management in Asian-Pacific Developing Countries

This article surveys the literature on macro-economic policy in East Asian and Pacific developing countries. Both internal and external aspects of macroeconomic policy are covered, but greater emphasis is placed on the former. After reviewing regional work on macroeconomic policy objectives and on the conflicts, constraints and trade-offs faced by policy makers, an examination is made of research into target/instrument frameworks for the analsyis and design of policy. Then follow sections dealing with the specific instruments of monetary and fiscal policy. Finally, attention is drawn briefly to topics found in the literature but bypassed in this survey, and to gaps in the regional literature itself.     

Adjustment with a human face: Still relevant or overtaken by events?

This paper describes the extent to which the policy recommendations of “Adjustment with a Human Face” have been accepted. The concept has been accepted in principle, but large gaps remain in actual implementation. Some policy recommendations, such as the need for compensatory programs, have been more fully accepted and implemented than others, such as the need to stimulate productivity by poor households and to involve different social groups in policy making. The paper concludes that adjustment policies should be part of a long-term development strategy which emphasizes structural changes for countries to grow out of structural poverty. As such, the policy recommendations of “Adjustment with a Human Face” still remain valid, albeit with changes in emphasis on their various components.     

Saving,investment, fiscal deficits,and the external indebtedness of developing countries

This paper investigates selected aspects of the external indebtedness of the developing countries. It examines both the theoretical and empirical sides of the debt servicing capacity issue, focussing on the role of domestic savings and investment as well as the budget deficits of the public sector in the recent widening of their current account deficits. The results of the study do not support the proposition that increases in external indebtedness among developing countries reflect overconsumption. Capital inflows did not partly or wholly displace domestic saving for the sample of countries examined; rather, the increase in external deficits can in most cases be accounted for by expansion in investment (relative to total output). However, the author qualifies his basically optimistic conclusions in pointing out that countries' ability to repay debt depends not only on whether initial borrowing sustained consumption or investment. but also, if the latter, on the quality of the investment spending.     

Exchange-rate volatility, trade and “fixing for life” in Thailand

At the outset of the 1997 financial crisis, the quest to find a more suitable exchange-rate policy has become an urgent task facing the East Asian economies. One of the key policies agreed under Thailand’s August 1997 Letter of Intent (LOI) with the IMF was the adoption of a more flexible exchange-rate policy. However, the country re-adopted its pre-1997 crisis rigid exchange-rate policy in early 1999. To grasp this “fixing for your life” phenomenon, we test the impact of the exchange-rate volatilities of Thailand’s baht against the yen and the US dollar on the performance of the country’s bilateral trades with the two key partners.     

Post-crisis export performance: The Indonesian experience in regional perspective

This paper examines post-crisis export performance in Indonesia against the backdrop of pre-crisis experience and the comparative export performance of other Southeast Asian countries. It surveys trends and patterns of export performance, focusing on comparative experience in major commodity categories and changing revealed comparative advantage. It also examines the implications for Indonesia's export performance of China's emergence as a major competitor in world trade, considers market prospects for textile and garment exports following the demise of the Multi-fibre Arrangement, and explores the factors contributing to the post-crisis export slowdown. The findings support the view that Indonesia's poor export performance in the post-crisis era is largely supply driven. They strengthen the case for reversal of recent backsliding in macroeconomic policy reform, and for speedy implementation of the unfinished reform agenda. Prudent macroeconomic management, while necessary, is not sufficient to achieve rapid and sustained export growth in an era of rapid economic globalisation.