Remittances,Dutch Disease,and Manufacturing Growth in Developing Economies

Remittances have grown tremendously in magnitude and economic importance in the past four decades, providing economies with additional disposable incomes and even serving as buffers against economic downturns. It is thus but fitting to ask how remittances have impacted on growth, particularly on manufacturing growth. This note presents a simple model linking remittances and manufacturing growth via a ‘Dutch Disease’ channel. Using Blundell and Bond's (1998) system general method of moments on a panel dataset of 56 developing economies from 1992 to 2016, we verify that remittances adversely affect manufacturing growth in economies that experience high real appreciation rates. This result is robust to alternate specifications, such as the inclusion of financial development indicators, the expansion of the sample to include high‐income economies, and the use of different sample periods.     

Singapore's Manufacturing Sector's TFP Growth: A Decomposition Analysis

Singapore has been criticized recently for experiencing insignificant total factor productivity (TFP) growth. This paper examines whether this criticism is valid in the context of the manufacturing sector of Singapore. Using new data and the stochastic production frontier approach, TFP growth is decomposed into technological progress and changes in technical efficiency. While the results could not reject the hypothesis that Singapore's output growth is mostly input-driven, they show that, despite technological progress, technical inefficiency is the cause for the low and declining TFP growth in the manufacturing sector.J. Comp. Econom., December 2000, 28(4), pp. 828–839. The University of Queensland; Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies, The Australian National University.     

发展新兴战略性产业:制造业与服务业并重

我国发展新兴战略性产业,首先要发展先进制造业,其次要发展现代服务业。我国仍然处在工业化发展过程中,还未完成工业化,特别是还未完成工业现代化;在国际分工中,我国制造业基本上仍然处在中低端;此外,制造业的发展有利于推动中国城市化的进程,这三方面决定了我国仍然必须坚持继续发展制造业。就制造业和服务业二者关系看,一方面,发展制造业,尤其是发展先进制造业,可以促进制造业企业功能服务化,促进制造业服务外包,催速供应链管理的发展,因而能促进现代服务业的发展;另一方面,制造业产品和制造业企业的竞争优势都需要服务业的支撑和增强。     

Agglomeration Economies and Productivity Growth in Manufacturing Industry: Empirical Evidence from Indonesia

This study examines the effect of agglomeration economies on productivity growth in Indonesian manufacturing industries during the first decade of this century. Productivity growth is measured at the firm level using the Färe‐Primont Productivity Index. Each firm's productivity growth is then regressed against a set of firm and industry characteristics, including three measures of agglomeration representing the effects of specialisation, diversity and competition. The results show evidence of a positive specialisation effect and a negative diversity effect for aggregate manufacturing and sub‐sectors. Furthermore, there are mixed effects across industries, suggesting that Porter's competition externalities stimulate firm productivity growth under some conditions but not others.     

International Technology Diffusion: Theory and Measurement

We model the invention of new technologies and their diffusion across countries. In our model all countries grow at the same steady-state rate, with each country's productivity ranking determined by how rapidly it adopts ideas. Research effort is determined by how much ideas earn at home and abroad. Patents affect the return to ideas. We relate the decision to patent an invention internationally to the cost of patenting in a country and to the expected value of patent protection in that country. We can thus infer the direction and magnitude of the international diffusion of technology from data on international patenting, productivity, and research. We fit the model to data from the five leading research economies. A rough summary of our findings is that the world lies about two-thirds of the way from an extreme of technological autarky to an extreme of free trade in ideas. Research performed abroad is about two-thirds as potent as domestic research. Together the United States and Japan drive at least two-thirds of the growth in each of the countries in our sample.     

Estimating Savings and Growth Functions in Developing Economies: A Simultaneous Equations Approach

There is a two-way influence between the savings rate on the one hand and some of its determinants on the other (i.e. a problem of simultaneity exists). This study specifies a general production function to generate a growth rate function, and estimates savings and growth equations simultaneously. A Hausman specification test examines the correct system specification, and determines whether 2SLS or 3SLS is the appropriate estimation technique. The results show that a simultaneous equations model is a better estimation technique (2SLS or 3SLS) than a single equation system (OLS), and that the full-information method (3SLS) provides better estimates than a limited-information method (2SLS). [C30]     

Multinational Firms, International Knowledge Flows, and Dual Labor Markets in Developing Economies

This paper seeks to explain how the expansion of multinational firms in a developing economy affects its labor market variables, such as wages in indigenous firms, the average wage level and total employment. Three potential effects: the transfer of foreign knowledge and the associated technological change, diffusion of this knowledge among indigenous firms, and the inflow of the physical capital from abroad, are examined under two possible scenarios: fixed and unlimited labor supply. The results obtained depend on the organization of the labor market in the host country, differences in capital intensity between multinational and local sectors, the amount of physical capital transferred to the host country from abroad, as well as the magnitude of knowledge spillovers stemming from multinational activity to indigenous firms. The predictions of the model are more consistent with empirical observations reported in empirical studies than those of other theoretical studies existing in the literature.     

服务业市场竞争与中国制造业企业全要素生产率

在制造业企业中间投入"服务化"的趋势下,文章聚焦于考察"中国服务业(运输、电信、分销、金融)市场竞争"与"制造业企业全要素生产率"之间的相关性.研究结果显示:(1)中国服务市场上竞争的引入和增强,会基于"投入-产出"关系对制造业企业全要素生产率产生显著的提升作用.(2)大型制造业企业"服务内置化"现象严重,中小企业因对外部服务投入依赖更深,更易于从运输、电信及分销服务业市场竞争中获益;但另一方面由于大企业多聚集于资金密集型行业,且受制于中国金融产权改革滞后,国有企业尤其是大型国企是目前中国金融业竞争导向市场化改革的主要受益者.(3)受中国制造业企业地理集聚特征影响,提高中国电信和分销服务市场竞争,将更有利于劳动及技术密集型制造业集聚的东部地区企业提升其全要素生产率;而运输和金融服务市场竞争增强会更有利于资源依赖型制造业企业集聚的中西部地区.(4)运输、电信和分销市场竞争加剧,更有利于制造业内生产效率领先企业提升其全要素生产率,由于中国金融业仍属于国有控股体制,金融改革的效率红利更易被位于生产效率低端的国有企业所获得.该现象虽在一定程度上能为中国制造业行业内企业全要素生产率走向收敛提供一个技术性解释,但其本身也彰显出中国金融资源配置的低效率和实施金融产权改革的迫切性.     

全要素生产率增长中的技术效应与结构效应——基于中国宏观和产业数据的测算及分解

宏观全要素生产率增长可分解为代表普遍技术进步的技术效应和要素流动配置的结构效应。本文利用中国宏观及产业数据,在增长核算基础上将TFP增长分解为技术效应和结构效应,据以对改革开放以来不同阶段中国经济增长的来源进行细致剖析。实证结果表明:(1)得益于后发优势,1978—2014年间中国经济增长整体质量较高,增长动力约1/3来自技术水平的普遍提升,而结构效应的作用仅为技术效应的1/5。(2)2005年以后,中外技术差距的缩小导致后发优势逐步衰减,技术进步对经济增长的支撑作用迅速下降;而结构效应对经济增长的贡献度不断提高,并维持了较高的TFP增长率;该趋势在二、三产业尤为突出,这也是工业化和城市化推进的结果。(3)金融危机后,产能过剩的钢铁、水泥所属领域和"金融与保险"、"房地产"等细分行业技术停滞或倒退却积累了更大比重的要素,存在要素资源配置"逆技术进步倾向";要素驱动特征不断强化,至2014年才出现扭转迹象。宏观和产业TFP增长是未来保持中国经济中高速增长、提高经济增长质量的重要支撑。短期内应着力优化产业结构,将要素资源引导到技术和效率水平更高的细分行业,借助结构效应实现TFP增长;中长期则要实施好创新驱动发展战略,切实推动各行业技术进步。     

Firm-Level TFP Growth in the Chinese Automobile Industry

China has been the world’s largest automobile producer since 2009,but it still lags behind other countries in terms of productivity. Based on theNational Bureau of Statistics of China (NBSC) firm-level data and the improvedapproach proposed by Ackerberg et al. (2015), this paper investigates thecontribution of total factor productivity (TFP) growth to the Chinese automobileindustry and evaluates the impact of firm entry and exit on TFP growth. Theempirical results show that the TFP of the Chinese automobile industry grows at10.7% per year. Joint venture and foreign-owned firms have a significantly higherTFP growth rate than others. Large-scale firms have a higher TFP growth rate thando small-scale firms, but the latter have caught up after 2004. Moreover, the entryof new firms and exit of old firms significantly improve the aggregate TFP growthrate.     

A Note on How and Why Growth and Unemployment Go Hand in Hand in Developing Economies

This paper develops a simple model to explain the phenomenon of persistent unemployment, even in an economy experiencing high output growth. In the model, unemployment grows at a rate identical with the growth rate of input factors and sectors. The result is primarily triggered by a pre-fixed minimum wage for unskilled workers. To corroborate our claim, we have empirically tested our model hypothesis using data for 12 developing countries and found empirical results consistent with the theory. To mitigate or reduce unemployment, history becomes crucial in deciding on the desired rate of growth in different sectors.     

External Scale Economies in Turkish Manufacturing Industries

In this study, the relationship between external scale economies (agglomeration economies) and productivity is measured by using Turkish data. The productivity increase can be due to economies from locating closer to other firms in either the same industry (localisation economies) or different industries (urbanisation economies). Localisation economies are proxied by own industry size and urbanisation economies by city population. Productivity (output per worker) is regressed on industry size, city population, and other related variables. A measure of concentration of state enterprises is included in the regressions to control for the possible inefficiencies in public sector firms. The functional form of the estimating equations is derived from the translog production function. As a check, a constant elasticity of substitution (CES) form is also experimented with. Data are cross-section data and come from industrial and production surveys conducted by the State Institute of Statistics of Turkey in 1985. The study finds that agglomeration economies that are robust across different specifications of the agglomeration economy function and production function exist in food products, textiles, and wood products. Urbanisation economies are detected in food products and textiles. In wood products there are localisation economies.     

Factor Demand in Pakistan's Manufacturing Sector

This paper estimate factor demand function by choosing appropriate technology. Departing from the conventioanl parting from the conventional practice of using and capital as factor inputs we extend the list of factors of production by including energy. Since we have more than two factor inputs the two-level (nested) CES production function is the natural choice for the appropriate technology. Using this technology we derive the factor demand for functions and estimate these for Pakistan's manufactruing sector covering a period from 1959-60 to 1982-83. The output elasticity of labour, capital and energy are found to be 0.47, 0.66 respectively. These informations, in particular, the employment elasticity are extremely important for manpower planning. These findings confirm the capital intensive structure of Pakistan's manufacturing units. [200]     

Liquidity Constraints and Business Cycles in Developing Economies

Open economy extensions of real business cycle models, even if generally successful, have met some difficulties replicating a few important stylized facts. In particular, these models tend to predict excessive consumption smoothing and consumption correlations across countries. The observed negative correlation between the trade balance and output in developing countries, the variability of the trade balance and its correlation with the terms of trade have also proven difficult to reproduce. This paper considers how introduction of incomplete markets in the form of liquidity constraints can alleviate these problems. This analysis suggests that adding liquidity constraints helps predict the variability of consumption relative to output. It also improves our estimate of the correlation between the trade balance and output. The model correctly replicates the small positive correlation between the terms of trade and the trade balance. However, it slightly underpredicts the variability of the trade balance when 50% of the consumers are assumed to be liquidity constrained.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers: E13, E32, E44.     

中国工业TFP的新产品动能变化研究

本文在运用全局曼奎斯特(Malmquist)生产率指数测算新产品全要素生产率及其分组技术效率和技术进步的基础上,首次对2001—2010年中国大中型工业行业TFP的新产品动能变化及其数量效应变化和效率效应变化进行研究。研究结果表明:中国工业新产品全要素生产率主要来自于技术进步,技术效率的作用很小;新产品全要素生产率低于TFP,中国工业TFP主要依靠老产品驱动;整体上中国工业TFP的新产品动能增长基本停滞;2008年后,TFP新产品动能的数量效应和效率效应双双提升,技术进步的新产品动能实现了较快增长,技术效率的新产品动能有所下降;企业规模、非国有企业占比对于TFP的新产品动能增长没有显著影响,FDI有抑制作用,出口和R&D投入则有促进作用。     

国际直接投资技术扩散与技术进步的经济学分析

现代经济与社会的竞争在一定程度上就是技术的竞争,对技术进步的需求成了人类社会的普遍需求。国际直接投资是技术扩散的主要途径,无论是东道国还是母国都可以通过国际直接投资的技术扩散效应获取技术进步,而跨国公司是推动这一进程的主体。技术扩散的系统主要包括以下要素:技术、技术供方、技术需方、技术转移渠道、技术转移促进及障碍——政府、政策、制度、文化及其它。从经济学的角度分析,技术进步的需求旺盛且刚性增长,技术进步的供给旺盛且回报递增,且技术进步的效率受技术扩散系统诸因素的影响。     

发展中国家国际技术转移模式的分类及评价

技术转移模式的选择对发展中国家国际技术转移的成效有重要影响.以是否以市场为媒介,是否将技术作为直接的转移目标作为分类标准,发展中国家的技术转移模式可以分为以市场为媒介的正式的技术转移模式和非市场媒介的非正式的技术转移模式.不同的技术转移模式适用于不同技术的转移,包含着不同的技术学习方式.随着技术的发展,非市场媒介的非正式的技术转移模式正表现出优势.     

转型经济中的贿赂与企业增长

运用欧洲复兴与开发银行(EBRD)在转型经济国家进行的BEEPS调查数据,本文研究了转型经济中企业增长与贿赂的关系.控制了企业、行业、制度和宏观经济的相关因素,以及控制了遗漏企业隐含特征所造成的内生性问题后,发现企业的贿赂与增长间存在显著的正向关系.进一步的研究表明贿赂能够通过降低官员掠夺(保护费功能),或帮助企业获得资源(润滑剂功能)来促进企业增长,这体现了贿赂的关系资本作用.