IMPACT OF TRADE SANCTIONS ON SOUTH AFRICA: A SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX APPROACH

This paper discusses a new approach for studying sanctions based on multipliers derived from the Social Accounting Matrix. I apply the methodology to the South African case and discuss output effects and distributional impacts on factors and households. The results show that the effects of trade sanctions on the South African economy are significant.     

THE IMPACT OF FOREIGN OWNERSHIP AND EFFICIENCY ON POLLUTION ABATEMENT EXPENDITURE BY CHEMICAL PLANTS: SOME UK EVIDENCE

This paper examines the impact of foreign ownership and efficiency on chemical plants' pollution abatement expenditure. The model estimates presented reveal not only which factors are the key determinants of whether any abatement expenditure occurs but also explain how much was spent on the principal categories of pollution control. These chemical plant results present a conspicuous contrast with earlier results based on other industrial sectors. This would suggest that the efficiency–pollution spending relationship is also characterised by industry specific effects.     

混业经营与金融体系稳定性:基于银行危机的全球实证分析

银行混业经营不仅关系到自身效率的提高,更关系到银行体系乃至整个金融体系的稳定性。对全球范围内61个国家的跨国数据进行的实证分析表明,一个国家对银行混业经营的限制越少,该国的金融体系越趋于稳定,发生银行危机的概率也越小。不仅如此,在宏观经济越不稳定的国家,其一般性银行危机演变为系统性银行危机的概率也越大。     

ENDOGENOUS PROTECTION IN A TRADE LIBERALIZING ECONOMY: THE CASE OF SOUTH AFRICA

This article aims to establish the changes that occurred in the institutional structures governing trade policy in South Africa during the period 1990–1998. It also examines the forces that influenced the application of tariff policy by the major tariff-setting bodies by applying various theories of endogenous protection to their decisions. Using firm-level data on applications made to the Board on Tariffs and Trade, the study finds that when estimating a probit model, employment considerations rather than capital invested influenced the board's decisions to grant protection. In addition, the board is found to have granted protection even in the face of tariff lines having been bound under the Uruguay Round. The article argues that this should not be interpreted as a reversal of the trade liberalization but rather as an attempt by the board to cushion firms from the acceleration in the tariff rationalization process that occurred after the GATT offer. Finally, it is suggested that the board's response to changes in import penetration ratios between industries that were considered organized provides prima facie evidence of the superior lobbying ability of such industries.     

FINANCIAL CONSTRAINTS AND TECHNICAL EFFICIENCY: SOME EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FOR ITALIAN PRODUCERS' COOPERATIVES

ABSTRACT ** :  In this paper, we test the extent to which producers' cooperatives can experience an increase in technical efficiency following a tightening of financial constraints. This hypothesis is tested on a sample of Italian conventional and cooperative firms for the wine production and processing sector, using frontier analysis. The results support the hypothesis that increasing financial pressure can affect positively the cooperatives efficiency.     

IMPACT OF TRADE ON SERVICE SECTOR EMPLOYMENT: IMPLICATIONS FOR WOMEN AND MINORITIES

Trade data from 1977 and 1985 suggest that, on average, service industries with the greatest trade-related employment gains tend to be more skill-intensive and that such industries employ relatively more women and minorities than do service industries experiencing the least trade-related employment gains. Three important qualifiers temper these findings: (i) Compared to whites, minorities—particularly blacks—have lower probability of increased employment in trade-enhanced service industries. (ii) Unlike whites or Hispanics, skilled black workers are more likely to be employed in service industries experiencing the least trade-related employment gains. (iii) On an industry by industry basis, no consistent relationship appears to exist between skill intensity and level of trade-related employment. The latter finding supports the view that service industry comparative advantage is industry-specific .     

THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL HELP AND GIFTS ON HOUSING DEMAND AND COST BURDENS

Financial transfers are an important source of income for many households and recipients may use these funds to pay for housing services. This paper examines the separate impact of financial help and substantial gifts on both housing demand and housing cost burden. The results indicate receiving gifts has a positive and statistically significant impact on housing demand. Households receiving help or gifts have substantially higher housing cost burdens, all else being held constant. These findings have implications for the financial well-being of recipient households and ultimately, the mortgage industry . ( JEL R20, R21)     

FINANCIAL RESTRUCTURING: IMPACT ON HOUSING

The purpose of this paper is to describe the primary factors that helped encourage the growth of savings and loan business and its development as the primary mortgage originating and investing intermediary. This will be followed by a discussion of how and why changes have been made to alter the sheltered environment of the business. Finally, the paper will focus on several options for the future structure of the savings and loan business and the implications each has on our mortgage delivery system and housing
The paper concludes that the country in general and its housing needs, in particular, would be best served by freeing up the asset and liability powers of thrifts. In order to meet the mortgage finance needs of the country, it is recommended that increased emphasis be put on making mortgages investment grade assets that will be able to compete with other investments for funds in the capital market generally. To do this, the government must refrain from price fixing (i.e., setting specific prepayment penalties, savings rates, etc.); establishing terms and conditions on mortgages (i.e., regulating mortgage forms); changing contractual provisions on mortgages (i.e., due-on-sale prohibitions), and avoiding noncompetitive behavior by government credit programs.     

THE IMPACT OF TRADE AND INVESTMENT AGREEMENTS ON AUSTRALIA'S INWARD FDI FLOWS

International trade and investment agreements are one of the primary instruments of global financial liberalisation. They are enacted to enhance the flows of foreign direct investment (FDI) between signatories by reducing regulatory barriers to investment; promoting stable host investment environments; and guaranteeing investors against non‐commercial risk. As a net capital importer, Australia has sought to attract FDI through participation in such accords since the early 1980s. This paper examines the determinants of Australia's inward FDI flows—focussing specifically on the effects of trade and investment agreements. Using panel data, we find that both bilateral trade and bilateral and multilateral investment agreements attract FDI flows into Australia, thereby indicating that the policy of enticing FDI through participation in these accords is quite possibly effective.     

SOME REFLECTIONS ON THE TERMS OF TRADE

In my article I have taken up different expressions for the terms of trade in foreign trade, and especially I have been interested in a breakdown of total gain into two parts, namely the part due to the terms-of-trade effects and the part due to the price level effects. I have also taken up the inter-sectoral gain from terms of trade and the relation to the terms of trade in foreign trade. Besides the usual index for terms of trade-the ratio between output prices and input prices-I have also introduced another index for terms of trade corresponding to the relation between the output price index and an index consisting of a weighted average of input prices and prices for final demand. Finally I have tried to give some emperical findings which should throw light on the development of the Danish terms of trade for the period 1949 to 1964.     

“两次金融危机”产生的原因与影响及对中国经济发展的启迪

分析1997年"亚洲金融危机"和2007年"世界金融危机"产生的原因及其异同点与"两次金融危机"对世界及其中国经济发展的影响.在此基础上,探讨"两次金融危机"对中国经济发展的启迪,为中国在今后经济发展中防范和应对金融危机提供科学依据.     

SAVING DOLPHINS: BOYCOTTS,TRADE SANCTIONS,AND UNOBSERVABLE TECHNOLOGY*

Consumers boycott some goods because they do not approve the ways they are manufactured. I examine the efficacy of boycotts and the role of trade policy in influencing the foreign exporter's technology choice. Even when its technology choice is unobservable, boycott threats can prompt the foreign firm to adopt the technology consumers prefer. Import policy can augment this effect, but when boycotts can have a substantial impact on demand, a use of ad valorem tariffs yields the unintended result. Specific tariffs and quotas are free of this defect, but specific tariffs are more effective than quotas in addressing consumers' concern.     

THE IMPACT OF TAX REGIMES ON INTERNATIONAL TRADE PATTERNS

This paper discusses the trade implications of value‐added taxes (VATs) that refund domestic taxes paid by exporters of domestic production while imposing taxes on imports of foreign production. VATs are used by over 140 countries of the world, including every member of the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development except the United States. An investigation of the implications of border‐adjustable taxes on the U.S. trade balance suggests that VATs positively affect trade competitiveness but with differing impacts by sector. These results do not necessarily extend to the conclusion that a U.S. VAT would increase U.S. exports; such a prediction requires economic forecasting and appropriate simulations. The present results do imply that the adoption of VATs by other countries appears to have benefited U.S. trade. Panel data over 20 years, 29 industries, and 145 countries is used to conduct the analysis. (JEL F10, H20, K34)     

金融危机背景下我国经济增长的区域差异及原因

金融危机对我国的经济影响已经日益显现,但由于我国各区域的经济结构特点不同,金融危机背景下,我国经济增长必然表现出一定的区域差异。从金融危机对我国经济产生的整体影响出发,通过选取主要经济发展指标分析2009年第一季度我国经济增长的区域差异,对区域差异的原因进行了分析,并提出相关的建议。     

THE IMPACT OF TRADE AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT POLICIES ON TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION AND SOURCING OF CHINESE FIRMS

How do trade and foreign direct investment (FDI) policies impact the decisions of firms in technology adoption (process vs. product innovations) and sourcing (internal vs. external and foreign vs. domestic)? We use a sample of Chinese firms to address this question. China's trade and FDI policies lead to different forms of internationalization: ordinary exports, processing exports, majority FDI, and minority FDI. We find that both exporting and FDI stimulate process innovation; ordinary exports, processing exports, and FDI have strong, weak, and no effects on stimulating product innovation, respectively. Exporting firms source technologies both internally through R&D and externally from foreign and domestic sources. FDI firms have a lower tendency of internal technology development and domestic technology sourcing, but a much higher tendency of foreign technology sourcing than exporting firms. (JEL F13, F23, O32)     

IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE UNCERTAINTY ON COMMODITY TRADE BETWEEN THE US AND AUSTRALIA*

Exchange rate volatility is said to have negative or positive effect on trade flows. Previous studies that considered the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on the trade flows of Australia employed trade data either between Australia and rest of the world or between Australia and her few major trading partners. They were unable to discover any significant impact. In this paper when we disaggregate trade data by commodity between Australia and one of her major trading partners, the US, we find exchange rate volatility to have short‐run effects on trade flows of most industries. However, the short‐run effects last into long run, only in limited cases, though more in export commodities than import ones.     

金融周期对宏观经济稳定的影响异质性分析

宏观经济稳定长期以来作为中国宏观调控的重要目标,在"新常态"时期被更加广泛关注。金融稳定作为宏观经济稳定的必要条件,以洞悉金融周期为前提,要求细究金融周期变量对宏观经济运行的影响,为政策精准性提供支持。本文利用相关金融周期和宏观经济变量季度数据,使用滤波方法找出宏观经济的波动和平稳时期,运用机器学习算法验证所选输入变量与输出变量的匹配度,并测度各输入变量对输出变量的重要度。本文发现波动期和平稳时期宏观经济表现虽有不同,但资产价格指数和信贷水平对各宏观经济变量的重要度之和都达到50%以上,而其他金融周期变量如利差、杠杆率和金融机构风险暴露的重要度则有限。这表明相关政策需有的放矢,相较于无差别的大规模释放流动性,可将重心置于维护资产价格稳定和优化信贷政策配给,为宏观经济稳定保驾护航。