Application of evidential reasoning approach and OWA operator weights in road safety evaluation considering the best and worst practice frontiers

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) has recently become relatively popular with road safety experts. Therefore, various decision-making units (DMUs), such as EU countries, have been assessed in terms of road safety performance (RSP). However, the DEA has been criticized because it evaluates DMUs based only on the concept of self-assessment, and, therefore does not provide a unique ranking for DMUs. Therefore, cross efficiency method (CEM) was developed to overcome this shortcoming. Peer-evaluations in addition to self-evaluation have made the CEM to be recognized as an effective method for ranking DMUs. The traditional CEM is based only on the standard CCR (Charnes, Cooper and Rhodes) model, and it evaluates DMUs according to their position relative to the best practice frontier while neglecting the worst practice frontier. However, the DMUs can also be assessed based on their position relative to the worst practice frontier. In this regard, the present study aims to provide a double-frontier CEM for assessing RSP by taking into account the best and worst frontiers simultaneously. For this purpose, the cross efficiency and cross anti-efficiency matrices are generated.Even though a weighted average method (WAM) is most frequently used for cross efficiency aggregation, the decision maker's (DM) preference structure may not be reflected. For this reason, the present study mainly focuses on the evidential reasoning approach (ERA), as a nonlinear aggregation method, rather than the linear WAM. Equal weights are often used for cross efficiency aggregation; consequently, the effect of the DM's subjective judgments in obtaining the overall efficiency is ignored. In this respect, the minimax entropy approach (MEA) and the maximum disparity approach (MMDA) are applied for determining the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator weights for cross efficiency aggregation. The weighted cross efficiencies and cross anti-efficiencies are then aggregated using the ERA. Finally, the proposed method, called DF-CEM-ERA, is used to evaluate the RSP of EU countries as well as Serbian police departments (PDs).     

交叉效率评价方法中一种改进的新单元导入保序性方法

针对交叉效率方法在评估排序时所存在的局限性,即在导入新的决策单元时,可能会使原先的决策单元(DMU)排序发生变化,本文通过建立二次权重集结交叉效率保序性模型对各DMU的权重进行二次分配,进而对交叉效率矩阵进行集结以得到最终的均衡交叉效率值。利用该均衡交叉效率值进行排序时可以消除导入新DMU时所产生的逆序现象。算例说明了该方法有效,计算结果较纳什讨价还价交叉效率保序性模型有所改进,综合计算量更小,各DMU权重更加合理,与一般交叉效率模型的效率值差异更小。     

Statistical measurement of trees’ similarity

Diagnostic theories are fundamental to Information Systems practice and are represented in trees. One way of creating diagnostic trees is by employing independent experts to construct such trees and compare them. However, good measures of similarity to compare diagnostic trees have not been identified. This paper presents an analysis of the suitability of various measures of association to determine the similarity of two diagnostic trees using bootstrap simulations. We find that three measures of association, Goodman and Kruskal’s Lambda, Cohen’s Kappa, and Goodman and Kruskal’s Gamma (J Am Stat Assoc 49(268):732–764, 1954) each behave differently depending on what is inconsistent between the two trees thus providing both measures for assessing alignment between two trees developed by independent experts as well as identifying the causes of the differences.     

Research efficiency analysis of China's university faculty members: A modified meta-frontier DEA approach

Traditionally, data envelopment analysis (DEA) requires all decision-making units (DMUs) to have similar characteristics and experiences within the same external conditions. In many cases, this assumption fails to hold, and thus, difficulties will be encountered to some extent when measuring efficiency with a standard DEA model. Ideally, the performance of DMUs with different characteristics could be examined using the DEA meta-frontier framework. However, some of these DMUs are mixed-type DMUs that may affiliate with more than one group. Furthermore, the total number of observations of these mixed-type DMUs is limited. This is one of the common problems when studies focus on faculty research performance in higher education institutions. In general, a faculty member is affiliated with a certain department, and if the departmental assessment policy is not suitable for faculty members who are involved in interdisciplinary research, their performance could be underestimated. Therefore, the proposed model is an extension of the DEA meta-frontier framework that can assess the performance of mixed-type DMUs by constructing the reference set without the same type of DMUs. In this paper, the scientific research efficiency of faculty members at the Inner Mongolia University is used as an example to provide a better understanding of the proposed model. The proposed model is intended to provide a fair and balanced performance assessment method that reflects actual performance, especially for mixed-type DMUs.     

Bayesian clustering of distributions in stochastic frontier analysis

In stochastic frontier analysis, firm-specific efficiencies and their distribution are often main variables of interest. If firms fall into several groups, it is natural to allow each group to have its own distribution. This paper considers a method for nonparametrically modelling these distributions using Dirichlet processes. A common problem when applying nonparametric methods to grouped data is small sample sizes for some groups which can lead to poor inference. Methods that allow dependence between each group’s distribution are one set of solutions. The proposed model clusters the groups and assumes that the unknown distribution for each group in a cluster are the same. These clusters are inferred from the data. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are necessary for model-fitting and efficient methods are described. The model is illustrated on a cost frontier application to US hospitals.     

Goodness of fit tests in stochastic frontier models

In this paper we discuss goodness of fit tests for the distribution of technical inefficiency in stochastic frontier models. If we maintain the hypothesis that the assumed normal distribution for statistical noise is correct, the assumed distribution for technical inefficiency is testable. We show that a goodness of fit test can be based on the distribution of estimated technical efficiency, or equivalently on the distribution of the composed error term. We consider both the Pearson χ ² test and the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test. We provide simulation results to show the extent to which the tests are reliable in finite samples.     

Market Concentration and Multifaceted Productive Efficiency

Developing the analytical framework of the decision making process of a possible entrant, a reduced form system equations model is estimated in order to examine the market concentration – productive efficiency relationship in an endogeneity context. Technical and scale efficiency estimates are obtained from an inter-industry stochastic production frontier using a panel dataset regarding the seven most energy intensive manufacturing industries in Greece over the period 1980–96. Several new versions of the concentration – efficiency relationship, may be derived from the alternatives of the entrant considering the possible conduct character of incumbents’ technical efficiency and excess capacity, which is depicted on their scale efficiency, on market concentration.     

Multiple Objective Approach as an Alternative to Radial Projection in DEA

Radial projection is a standard technique applied in data envelopment analysis (DEA) to calculate efficiency scores for input and/or output variables. In this paper, we have studied the appropriateness of radial projection for target setting. We have created a situation where the decision making units (DMUs) are free to choose their own target values on the efficient frontier and then compared the results to those of radial projection. In practice, target values are primarily used for future goal attainment; hence, not only preferences but also, and on the whole, change in time frame, affect the choice of target values. Based on that, we conducted an empirical experiment with an aim to study how the DMUs choose their most preferred target values on the efficient frontier. The subjects, who all were students of the Helsinki School of Economics, were given the freedom to explore their personalized efficient frontiers by using a multiple objective linear programming (MOLP) approach. To study various and relevant scenarios, the personalized efficient frontiers for all students were constructed in such a way that the current position of each student in relation to the frontier made him/her inefficient, efficient, or super-efficient. The results show that the use of radial projection for target setting is too restrictive.     

Temporal variations in technical efficiency: evidence from German soccer

This paper applies stochastic production frontier models with time-varying technical efficiency to a panel data set including hitherto unavailable information on team wage bills from the first division in German professional soccer (the “Bundesliga”) covering the years 1981–2003. We demonstrate that individual teams experience significant variation in technical efficiency over an extended period of 22 seasons while the league’s average level of efficiency remains constant over time. More detailed analyses reveal that, first, the decision to fire or to retain the head coach is mainly influenced by changes in managerial efficiency between two adjacent seasons and, second, relegated teams on average experience considerable reductions in technical efficiency compared to the previous season.     

The efficiency of Spanish arable crop organic farms,a local maximum likelihood approach

The methodologies that have been used in existing research to assess the efficiency with which organic farms are operating are generally based either on the stochastic frontier methodology or on a deterministic non-parametric approach. Recently, Kumbhakar et al. (J Econom 137:1–27, 2007) proposed a new nonparametric, stochastic method based on the local maximum likelihood principle. We use this methodology to compare the efficiency ratings of organic and conventional arable crop farms in the Spanish region of Andalucía. Nonparametrically encompassing the stochastic frontier model is especially useful when comparing the performance of two groups that are likely to be characterized by different production technologies.

Stochastic FDH/DEA estimators for frontier analysis

In this paper we extend the work of Simar (J Product Ananl 28:183–201, 2007) introducing noise in nonparametric frontier models. We develop an approach that synthesizes the best features of the two main methods in the estimation of production efficiency. Specifically, our approach first allows for statistical noise, similar to Stochastic frontier analysis (even in a more flexible way), and second, it allows modelling multiple-inputs-multiple-outputs technologies without imposing parametric assumptions on production relationship, similar to what is done in non-parametric methods, like Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), Free Disposal Hull (FDH), etc.... The methodology is based on the theory of local maximum likelihood estimation and extends recent works of Kumbhakar et al. (J Econom 137(1):1–27, 2007) and Park et al. (J Econom 146:185–198, 2008). Our method is suitable for modelling and estimation of the marginal effects onto inefficiency level jointly with estimation of marginal effects of input. The approach is robust to heteroskedastic cases and to various (unknown) distributions of statistical noise and inefficiency, despite assuming simple anchorage models. The method also improves DEA/FDH estimators, by allowing them to be quite robust to statistical noise and especially to outliers, which were the main problems of the original DEA/FDH estimators. The procedure shows great performance for various simulated cases and is also illustrated for some real data sets. Even in the single-output case, our simulated examples show that our stochastic DEA/FDH improves the Kumbhakar et al. (J Econom 137(1):1–27, 2007) method, by making the resulting frontier smoother, monotonic and, if we wish, concave.     

Hierarchies and Groups in DEA

Conventional applications of data envelopment analysis (DEA) presume the existence of a set of similar decision making units, wherein each unit is evaluated relative to other members of the set. Often, however, the DMUs fall naturally into groupings, giving rise first to the problem of how to view the groups themselves as DMUs, and second to the issue of how to deal with several different ratings for any given DMU when groupings can be formed in different ways. In the present paper we introduce the concept of hierarchical DEA, where efficiency can be viewed at various levels. We provide a means for adjusting the ratings of DMUs at one level to account for the ratings received by the groups (into which these DMUs fall) at a higher level. We also develop models for aggregating different ratings for a DMU arising from different possible groupings. An application of these models to a set of power plants is given.     

Projections Onto Efficient Frontiers: Theoretical and Computational Extensions to DEA

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) has been widely studied in the literature since its inception in 1978. The methodology behind the classical DEA, the oriented method, is to hold inputs (outputs) constant and to determine how much of an improvement in the output (input) dimensions is necessary in order to become efficient. This paper extends this methodology in two substantive ways. First, a method is developed that determines the least-norm projection from an inefficient DMU to the efficient frontier in both the input and output space simultaneously, and second, introduces the notion of the observable frontier and its subsequent projection. The observable frontier is the portion of the frontier that has been experienced by other DMUs (or convex combinations of such) and thus, the projection onto this portion of the frontier guarantees a recommendation that has already been demonstrated by an existing DMU or a convex combination of existing DMUs. A numerical example is used to illustrate the importance of these two methodological extensions.     

Conditional nonparametric frontier models for convex and nonconvex technologies: a unifying approach

The explanation of productivity differentials is very important to identify the economic conditions that create inefficiency and to improve managerial performance. In the literature two main approaches have been developed: one-stage approaches and two-stage approaches. Daraio and Simar (2005, J Prod Anal 24(1):93–121) propose a fully nonparametric methodology based on conditional FDH and conditional order-m frontiers without any convexity assumption on the technology. However, convexity has always been assumed in mainstream production theory and general equilibrium. In addition, in many empirical applications, the convexity assumption can be reasonable and sometimes natural. Lead by these considerations, in this paper we propose a unifying approach to introduce external-environmental variables in nonparametric frontier models for convex and nonconvex technologies. Extending earlier contributions by Daraio and Simar (2005, J Prod Anal 24(1):93–121) as well as Cazals et al. (2002, J Econometrics 106:1–25), we introduce a conditional DEA estimator, i.e., an estimator of production frontier of DEA type conditioned to some external-environmental variables which are neither inputs nor outputs under the control of the producer. A robust version of this conditional estimator is proposed too. These various measures of efficiency provide also indicators of convexity which we illustrate using simulated and real data. Cinzia Daraio received Research support from the Italian Ministry of Education Research on Innovation Systems Project (iRis) “The reorganization of the public system of research for the technological transfer: governance, tools and interventions” and from the Italian Ministry of Educational Research Project (MIUR 40% 2004) “System spillovers on the competitiveness of Italian economy: quantitative analysis for sectoral policies” which are acknowledged. Léopold Simar received Research support from the “Interuniversity Attraction Pole”, Phase V (No. P5/24) from the Belgian Government (Belgian Science Policy) is acknowledged.     

A novel method for computing single output for DEA with application in hospital efficiency

There are two main methods for measuring the efficiency of decision-making units (DMUs): data envelopment analysis (DEA) and stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). Each of these methods has advantages and disadvantages. DEA is more popular in the literature due to its simplicity, as it does not require any pre-assumption and can be used for measuring the efficiency of DMUs with multiple inputs and multiple outputs, whereas SFA is a parametric approach that is applicable to multiple inputs and a single output. Since many applied studies feature multiple output variables, SFA cannot be used in such cases. In this research, a unique method to transform multiple outputs to a virtual single output is proposed. We are thus able to obtain efficiency scores from calculated virtual single output by the proposed method that are close (or even the same depending on targeted parameters at the expense of computation time and resources) to the efficiency scores obtained from multiple outputs of DEA. This will enable us to use SFA with a virtual single output. The proposed method is validated using a simulation study, and its usefulness is demonstrated with real application by using a hospital dataset from Turkey.     

Assessing bankruptcy prediction models via information content of technical inefficiency

We use a stochastic frontier model with firm-specific technical inefficiency effects in a panel framework (Battese and Coelli in Empir Econ 20:325–332, 1995) to assess two popular probability of bankruptcy (PB) measures based on Merton model (Merton in J Financ 29:449–470, 1974) and discrete-time hazard model (DHM; Shumway in J Bus 74:101–124, 2001). Three important results based on our empirical studies are obtained. First, a firm with a higher PB generally has less technical efficiency. Second, for an ex-post bankrupt firm, its PB tends to increase and its technical efficiency of production tends to decrease, as the time to its bankruptcy draws near. Finally, the information content about firm’s technical inefficiency provided by PB based on DHM is significantly more than that based on Merton model. By the last result and the fact that economic-based efficiency measures are reasonable indicators of the long-term health and prospects of firms (Baek and Pagán in Q J Bus Econ 41:27–41, 2002), we conclude that PB based on DHM is a better credit risk proxy of firms.     

Generalized reduced rank tests using the singular value decomposition

We propose a novel statistic to test the rank of a matrix. The rank statistic overcomes deficiencies of existing rank statistics, like: a Kronecker covariance matrix for the canonical correlation rank statistic of Anderson [Annals of Mathematical Statistics (1951), 22, 327–351] sensitivity to the ordering of the variables for the LDU rank statistic of Cragg and Donald [Journal of the American Statistical Association (1996), 91, 1301–1309] and Gill and Lewbel [Journal of the American Statistical Association (1992), 87, 766–776] a limiting distribution that is not a standard chi-squared distribution for the rank statistic of Robin and Smith [Econometric Theory (2000), 16, 151–175] usage of numerical optimization for the objective function statistic of Cragg and Donald [Journal of Econometrics (1997), 76, 223–250] and ignoring the non-negativity restriction on the singular values in Ratsimalahelo [2002, Rank test based on matrix perturbation theory. Unpublished working paper, U.F.R. Science Economique, University de Franche-Comté]. In the non-stationary cointegration case, the limiting distribution of the new rank statistic is identical to that of the Johansen trace statistic.     

Visualizing Efficiency and Reference Relations in Data Envelopment Analysis with an Application to the Branches of a German Bank

The interest in Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) as a method for analyzing the productivity of homogeneous Decision Making Units (DMUs) has significantly increased in recent years. One of the main goals of DEA is to measure for each DMU its production efficiency relative to the other DMUs under analysis. Apart from a relative efficiency score, DEA also provides reference DMUs for inefficient DMUs. An inefficient DMU has, in general, more than one reference DMU, and an efficient DMU may be a reference unit for a large number of inefficient DMUs. These reference and efficiency relations describe a net which connects efficient and inefficient DMUs. We visualize this net by applying Sammons mapping. Such a visualization provides a very compact representation of the respective reference and efficiency relations and it helps to identify for an inefficient DMU efficient DMUs respectively DMUs with a high efficiency score which have a similar structure and can therefore be used as models. Furthermore, it can also be applied to visualize potential outliers in a very efficient way.JEL Classification: C14, C61, D24, M2     

A stochastic frontier model with correction for sample selection

Heckman’s (Ann Econ Soc Meas 4(5), 475–492, 1976; Econometrica 47, 153–161, 1979) sample selection model has been employed in three decades of applications of linear regression studies. This paper builds on this framework to obtain a sample selection correction for the stochastic frontier model. We first show a surprisingly simple way to estimate the familiar normal-half normal stochastic frontier model using maximum simulated likelihood. We then extend the technique to a stochastic frontier model with sample selection. In an application that seems superficially obvious, the method is used to revisit the World Health Organization data (WHO in The World Health Report, WHO, Geneva 2000; Tandon et al. in Measuring the overall health system performance for 191 countries, World Health Organization, 2000) where the sample partitioning is based on OECD membership. The original study pooled all 191 countries. The OECD members appear to be discretely different from the rest of the sample. We examine the difference in a sample selection framework.     

Parametric decomposition of the input-oriented Malmquist productivity index: with an application to Greek aquaculture

Using a stochastic frontier approach and a translog input distance function, this paper implements the input-oriented Malmquist productivity index to a sample of Greek aquaculture farms. It is decomposed into the effects of technical efficiency change, scale efficiency change, input-mix and, technical change, which is further attributed to neutral, output- and input-induced shifts of the frontier. Implementable expressions for the aforementioned components are obtained using a discrete changes-approach that is consistent with the usual discrete-form data. Empirical findings indicate that the productivity of the farms in the sample increased during the period 1995–1999 and it was shaped up primarily by the input mix-effect and technical change.