The Impact of School Lunches on Primary School Enrollment: Evidence from India's Midday Meal Scheme

At the end of 2001, the Indian Supreme Court issued a directive ordering states to institute school lunches – known locally as “midday meals” – in government primary schools. In this paper we provide a large‐scale assessment of the enrollment effects of India's midday meal scheme, which offers warm lunches, free of cost, to 120 million primary school children across India, and is the largest school feeding program in the world. To isolate the causal effect of the policy, we make use of its staggered implementation across Indian states in government but not private schools. Using a panel dataset of more than 420,000 schools observed annually from 2002 to 2004, we find that midday meals result in substantial increases in primary school enrollment, driven by early primary school responses to the program. Our results are robust to a wide range of specification tests.     

The Effect of Female Education on Fertility and Infant Health: Evidence from School Entry Policies Using Exact Date of Birth

This paper uses age-at-school-entry policies to identify the effect of female education on fertility and infant health. We focus on sharp contrasts in schooling, fertility, and infant health between women born just before and after the school entry date. School entry policies affect female education and the quality of a woman's mate and have generally small, but possibly heterogeneous, effects on fertility and infant health. We argue that school entry policies manipulate primarily the education of young women at risk of dropping out of school.     

军事化训练可以促进团队合作吗?——来自公共物品实验的证据

本文采用实验经济学的方法,选取军校及普通高校大一和大四的学生作为研究对象,通过单轮公共物品实验,考察军事化训练对团队合作的影响。结果显示,军事化训练显著提高团队的初始合作态度。军校大四学员的合作水平显著高于军校大一学员,而地方高校大一与大四学生的合作水平没有显著差别。同时,地方高校大一学生与军校大一学员的合作水平没有显著差异,排除了军校学员的自我选择因素。     

Forecasting the Technology Revolution: Results and learnings from the TechCast Project

This research report presents latest results on the TechCast Project, first reported in Technology Forecasting & Social Change 14 years ago [1]. TechCast is an online Delphi system that pools background trends and the judgment of experts around the world to forecast breakthroughs in all fields. Results are presented for strategic technological advances that are likely to enter the mainstream and their expected impacts, providing an overview of the Technology Revolution. Aggregating the forecast data then provides macro-forecasts of broad timetables for economic and social change. This analysis suggests that the global economy is likely to enter a new economic upcycle about 2015 and reach an advanced stage of development about 2020. We also examine examples of how organizations develop technology strategy to compete in an era of economic transformation, and conclude by analyzing the role of forecasting as one of many methods for reducing uncertainty.     

小微企业融资租赁交易的动因——来自中国小微企业调查的经验证据

本文利用中国小微企业调查数据,从税收和融资约束两个角度考察了小微企业融资租赁交易的动因.实证结果表明,国外经典的"税率差别理论"和节税动因均不能有效解释我国小微企业的融资租赁交易,小微企业采用融资租赁交易是为了缓解自身融资约束.进一步研究发现,融资约束对小微企业融资租赁交易的影响以企业所处发展阶段、所在地区法治环境优劣为条件.本文提供了小微企业融资租赁交易动因的经验证据,并从丰富金融产品和工具的角度提出解决小微企业融资约束问题的思路.     

一叶知秋:情感语调信息具有同业溢出效应吗?——来自业绩说明会文本分析的证据

文章基于业绩说明会的文本分析,考察了管理层情感语调信息是否具有同业溢出效应.研究发现,管理层净正面语调与同业公司股票超额回报显著正相关;区分正面和负面语调之后,同业公司股价对负面语调的反应更加强烈.这表明管理层情感语调具有外部性,蕴含更多行业前景信息,且投资者更加重视其中的负面信息.此外,共同分析师跟踪、股价同步性越强以及龙头公司行业地位越高,管理层情感语调的同业溢出效应越强;当管理层情感语调与财务信息相互印证时,同业溢出效应更加显著.文章研究表明,业绩说明会情感语调能够为同业公司投资者提供增量信息,降低信息获取成本与投资不确定性,提升投资决策效率;同时,业绩说明会这种信息披露方式有助于塑造良好的市场信息环境,对于加强信息披露监管具有一定借鉴意义.     

The Effect of Inequality on Growth: Theory and Evidence from the Indian States

The paper examines the effect of inequality on growth among the subnational states in India. Theoretically, growth of the regional economy is driven by productive public investment in the provision of health and education services financed by a linear output tax, and the optimum tax rate is determined by the median voter. In contrast to existing results, the authors obtain an ambiguous relationship between initial inequality and subsequent economic growth. Analysis of the Indian state‐level data suggests that rural inequality influences growth of total output more than urban inequality, and does so negatively. The indicator of intersectoral inequality is more important in explaining sectoral output growth.     

产品创新与中小企业融资能力

产品创新是增强中小企业融资能力的不竭动力,通过论述完善企业信息处理系统,加强观念创新、实现有效技术积累、开发人力资源、提高企业营销能力、利用柔性企业组织结构和组织方式,探讨了促进中小企业产品创新的措施。     

The Test of Economic Literacy: Development and Results

In this study, the authors report on the revision of the Test of Economic Literacy for the fourth edition. The Test of Economic Literacy is a nationally-normed and standardized measure of the economic understanding of U.S. high school students. The economic content of the test is based on the Voluntary National Content Standards in Economics, which is used to establish the content validity for the test. The revision process is described and evidence on the test reliability and construct validity is presented from the test score analysis. The Test of Economic Literacy has a long and successful history of use by educators and researchers interested in economic education in high schools. The new edition should provide an improved instrument to continue that testing and research work.     

Return migration and the transfer of gender norms: Evidence from the Middle East

Does international return migration transfer gender norms? Focusing on Jordan, an Arab country where gender inequality and emigration rates are high, this paper exploits unique data in which detailed information on female empowerment allows us to construct several measures of social norms in Jordan on the role of women, female freedom of mobility, and female decision-making power. Controlling for both emigration and return migration selections, we find that women with a returnee family member are more likely to bear traditional gender norms than women in households with no migration experience. Further analysis shows that results are driven by returnees from more conservative Arab countries, suggesting a transfer of conservative norms from destinations with highly traditional gender roles. We also show the implications of our results beyond perceptions for several economic and development outcomes, such as female labour force participation, education and fertility.     

Firm Performance and Women on the Board: Evidence from Spanish Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises

ABSTRACT

This study examines gender diversity on boards of directors in a sample of nonfinancial Spanish small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) for 2003–8, finding that the probability of women on the board increases with firm performance, defined as return on assets, and family ownership, but diminishes with corporate ownership and firm risk. It also finds, when examining the full sample, a positive effect of the presence of women board members on firm performance. The study also obtains a similar positive effect in most subsamples, including in firms with corporate ownership, where family connections play less role in the election of board members, and in firms in the secondary and tertiary sectors, which are characterized by having greater proximity to final consumers than those in the primary sector.     

Rates of Return and Early Retirement Disincentives: Evidence from a German Pension Reform

To counteract the financial pressure emerging in aging societies, statutory pension schemes are undergoing fundamental reforms in many Western countries. Starting with cohort 1937, Germany introduced permanent pension deductions for early retirement. This study examines the profitability of pension contributions against the background of this reform for cohorts 1935–1945. Internal rates of return (IRR) are used to measure the profitability. For men, the IRR declines from 2.4% to 1.2% and for women from 5.2% to 3.7%. The results suggest that the majority of the trend, about 75–80%, is caused by increased pension contributions and not by the reform.     

“扶教育之贫”的增智和增收效应——对20世纪90年代“国家贫困地区义务教育工程”的评估

本文基于2013年CHIP数据,运用截面数据双差法,评估了20世纪90年代中期二片地区"国家贫困地区义务教育工程"的政策效果,对此提供了来自中国的经验证据。研究发现,通过新建或改扩建小学与初中校舍、购置教学设备等措施,该工程较好地实现了"增智"的目标:受益儿童成年后的受教育年限显著提高0.7年左右;但工程的"增收"效果却十分有限,受益儿童成年后收入并未显著提高。计量分析发现,工程虽能提高受益儿童成年后外出务工收入水平,但未能提升其外出务工概率;可能受限于本地第二、第三产业发展滞后,成年后留在本地的受益群体从事非农职业的概率反而显著降低。这说明,中国的"扶教育之贫"政策,能够有效促进贫困地区基础教育发展,但要达到教育扶贫"增收"的根本目标,还需要积极引导外出务工、发展本地第二、第三产业等政策与之配套。     

The Effect of Education on Old Age Cognitive Abilities: Evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design

In this paper we exploit the 1947 change to the minimum school-leaving age in England from 14 to 15, to evaluate the causal effect of a year of education on cognitive abilities at older ages. We use a regression discontinuity design analysis and find a large and significant effect of the reform on males' memory and executive functioning at older ages, using simple cognitive tests from the English Longitudinal Survey on Ageing (ELSA) as our outcome measures. This result is particularly remarkable since the reform had a powerful and immediate effect on about half the population of 14-year-olds. We investigate and discuss the potential channels by which this reform may have had its effects, as well as carrying out a full set of sensitivity analyses and robustness checks.     

电子商务提升中小企业竞争力研究

从电子商务的产生、发展及现状入手,利用经济学原理,对电子商务提升企业竞争力的作用进行理论分析,认为电子商务是能够使企业获取竞争优势并提升竞争力的有效途径,并对中小企业利用电子商务提升竞争力的必要性和可行性进行研究,在理论分析的基础上,提出中小企业利用电子商务提升竞争力的几点措施建议。     

The Export Promoting Effect of Emigration: Evidence from Denmark

Ethnic networks exhibit the potential to lower barriers to trade. The paper identifies the export‐promoting effect of emigration on the firm‐level using Danish data for the year 2001. Accounting for taste similarity, self‐selection and unobserved heterogeneity, three main findings are established. First, the elasticity of manufacturing exports to emigration is robust and of similar size as the effect of immigration. Secondly, only immigration encourages market entry but not emigration, suggesting that variable cost reductions and demand for home‐country products are the driving force of emigrant network effects. Thirdly, benefits from emigration accrue exclusively to low‐productivity firms.     

工业投资的长期效应——来自抗日战争的证据

基于特定地区的工业投资是后发国家(或地区)干预经济的重要手段,但其长期政策效果却未引起足够关注.文章搜集整理了各种史料,构建了抗日战争时期后方十省的县级工业数据库,探究抗日战争时期大后方地区的工业投资对经济发展所带来的长期影响及其作用机制.研究发现:(1)如果1942?1945年间县内工业企业数量越多,那么其在新中国时期经济发展水平越高,不过该效应随时间逐渐减弱.(2)近代大后方地区的工业投资通过路径依赖和初始物质资本积累对长期经济发展产生了正向影响.历史上工业投资越高的地区,当下的工业化程度也越高,但工业企业的生产效率并没有显著差别.(3)历史上拥有更多工业投资的地区在当下能够吸引更多的人口迁入,同时拥有更高的城市化率,不过该历史基础并未显著影响与农村相关的变量,如婴儿死亡率以及农村居民纯收入等.上述结论说明,向特定地区的大规模投资可以帮助其更快地完成工业化,逆比较优势的产业布局在短期会带来效率损失,但在长期却可能带来正面效应.     

Home versus School Learning: A New Approach to Estimating the Effect of Class Size on Achievement

The effects of class size on scholastic achievement are estimated using a seasonal feature of the school system. The fact that schools are in session during the school year and out of session during the summer makes it possible to control for non‐school influences on both the level of and changes in achievement. Using Swedish data, smaller classes are found to generate higher test scores and this effect is larger for immigrants. The results are also compared with those from applying the same data to the widely used value‐added model.     

The Effect of Repeated Interaction on Contract Choice: Evidence from Offshore Drilling

We argue that repeated interaction and high-powered formal contractscan be either substitutes or complements, depending on the relativeimpact of repeated interaction on incentive problems and contractingcosts. In the offshore drilling industry, we find that oil andgas companies are less likely to choose fixed-price contractsas the frequency of their interaction with a driller increases.This supports the conclusion that repeated interaction and high-poweredformal contracts are substitutes in this setting, indicatingthat repeated interaction reduces incentive problems more thancontracting costs. In addition, we find that using instrumentalvariables to account for the endogenous matching of drillersto projects strengthens our results.