Structural and cyclical movements of the current account in Japan: An alternative measure

The purpose of this study is to analyze fluctuations in the current account in Japan by deconstructing structural and non-structural components with a new method. The study shows that at the beginning of the 1980's, most components of the current account in Japan were structural. After the Plaza agreement in 1985, however, Japan's structural current account sharply decreased. Since the end of 1990s, the structural components increased again and reached nearly 2% of GDP and these movements are generally associated with the structural components of equipment investment. Business fluctuations in Japan and world, especially in the U.S. play an important role in the non-structural current account. Cyclical movements of the current account are remarkable because they include periods of recession, and this tendency was notable in the 1990s.     

Demographic changes, saving, and current account: An analysis based on a panel VAR model

This paper empirically investigates the macroeconomic effects of demographic changes, focusing on saving rates and current account balances. The econometric investigation based on the panel VAR model shows substantial demographic effects on national saving rates and current account balances in the major advanced (G-7) countries. An increase in the dependency rate significantly lowers saving rates, especially public saving rates. Further, a higher dependency rate significantly worsens current account balances.     

Exchange rate shocks and the current account under monopolistic competition: An intertemporal optimization model

This paper examines the current-account effect of a devaluation in a Chamberlinian model where both saving and investment are based on intertemporal optimization. It shows that devaluation tends to deteriorate the current account along the time horizon, leading to a reduction of the stock of foreign assets permanently. In contrast to recent work, these real effects do not rely on short-run disequilibrium in the goods or labor market. Besides, a temporary devaluation may generate hysteresis effects on both micro- and macro-economic aspects of a small economy.     

Monetary policy shocks and exchange rates in Asian countries

In this paper, we empirically investigate the effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rates in Asian countries. To do so, we use VAR models which impose sign restrictions on impulse responses to identify monetary policy shocks. We find that contractionary monetary policy shocks lead to significant exchange rate appreciation in Malaysia, the People’s Republic of China, and the Republic of Korea. However, in India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand, we find either a significant depreciation or no significant effect. These results suggest that an interest rate increase (or decrease) may not necessarily shield Asian countries from exchange rate depreciation (or appreciation) pressure following a U.S. interest rate increase (or decrease).     

External shocks and Japanese business cycles: Evidence from a sign-restricted VAR model

This study investigates the sources of Japanese business fluctuations since the 1990s, taking into account both external shocks (e.g., risk premium and foreign demand shocks) and domestic supply and demand shocks. We use the sign-restricted VAR model based on the theoretical model to identify these shocks. The presented results show that approximately 30–50% of the forecast error variances in output can be explained by external shocks. Further, we demonstrate that supply shock is the main influencing factor in Japanese business fluctuations throughout the sample period and that the role of external shocks has been growing in the post-Lehman period, including the effect of the Great East Japan Earthquake.     

中日贸易逆差与汇率之间关系的实证分析

文章基于VAR模型的研究方法,应用季度数据,分析2001--2007年间汇率和需求等因素对中日两国双边贸易收支的影响。结果显示：长期中汇率与中日贸易收支不满足马歇尔-勒纳条件,短期内实际汇率对贸易逆差的调节作用很小。无论在短期还是长期,真正影响中日双边贸易收支的因素是日本的国内需求和政治因素。葛兰杰因果检验显示中国对日本的贸易逆差是日本经济复苏的原因。     

Estimating the equilibrium exchange rate of the Central and Eastern European acceding countries: The challenge of euro adoption

This study estimates the equilibrium real and nominal exchange rates for five Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. A new approach is adopted, which combines the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate (FEER) with the behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) methodology. In a VAR-based 3-equation cointegration system, we estimate structural equations for internal and external balances and link them to the real exchange rate. The estimated misalignment is used to derive equilibrium nominal exchange rates. The sustainability of an ERM-II-type exchange rate regime is investigated on ex post data, and the credibility problem of fixing the currencies of CEE countries vis-à-vis the single European currency is analysed. JEL no. E31, F31, O11, P17     

The Exchange Rate Macroeconomic Balance Approach: New Methodology and Results for the Euro,the Dollar,the Yen and the Pound Sterling

This paper presents an extension of the macroeconomic exchange rate balance approach. This extension comprises two new aspects. Firstly, it is based on a multinational framework which allows for macroeconomic linkages between countries. Secondly, it uses a procedure that does not require a full modeling of the world economy to derive a consistent set of equilibrium exchange rates. The findings reveal that, in 2001, the dollar was overvalued against the euro and the yen. The paper also shows that this result depends heavily on the chosen notion of current account sustainability.     

Assessing the Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Malaysian Ringgit: A Comparison of Alternative Approaches

Drawing on the behavioral equilibrium exchange rate and the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate approaches, this paper assesses the equilibrium value of the real effective exchange rate of the Malaysian ringgit over the past 25 years. For 2005, when the Malaysian authorities exited from the peg with the US dollar, both models determine a slight undervaluation of the currency. Openness and real GDP per capita have been the main drivers of real exchange rate movements in the past, although non-tradable productivity, government consumption, and net foreign assets have also had a sizable impact. The paper also highlights the limitations of applying the two approaches in the context of emerging countries.     

外商直接投资对我国国际收支经常项目的影响研究

与资本项目相比,FDI对国际收支经常项目的影响更为曲折和复杂。本文在分析了FDI对我国国际收支经常项目影响途径的基础上,采用1983—2010年的年度数据,对FDI与我国经常项目差额进行实证分析。结果显示,FDI与我国国际收支经常项目差额之间存在正相关关系,对经常项目差额影响显著,是经常项目差额扩大的重要原因。     

Oil price shocks and the current account: An analysis of short run adjustment measures

Zusammenfassung ?lpreisschocks und Leistungsbilanz: Eine Analyse der kurzfristigen AnpassungsmaΒnahmen. — Der Aufsatz befa?t sich mit einer groΒen Gruppe von Entwicklungsl?ndern, die kein Roh?l f?rdern und die zur Finanzierung ihrer Leistungsbilanzdefizite haupts?chlich auf internationale Beh?rden oder eigene Reserven angewiesen sind. Unglücklicherweise hatten viele dieser L?nder bereits eine schwache Reserveposition, als die letzte Welle von ?lpreiserh?hungen begann, was auf den ?lpreisschock von 1973/74 und die anschlieΒende weltweite Rezession zurückzuführen ist. Deshalb verwenden wir hier ein Modell, in dem keine Kapitalmobilit?t, aber feste Wechselkurse vorausgesetzt werden. AuΒerdem wird angenommen, daΒ das betreffende Land für importierte Fertigwaren Preisnehmer ist, dagegen auf seinem Exportmarkt eine gewisse Monopolstellung besitzt. Untersucht werden die Auswirkungen eines ?lpreisschocks auf Produktion, Preise, Investitionen und Leistungsbilanz, auΒerdem verschiedene MaΒnahmen zur Anpassung der Leistungsbilanz (Geld-, Wechselkurs- und Handelspolitik) sowohl unter der Annahme flexibler als auch starrer Reall?hne.

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Résumé Chocs de prix pétrolier et la balance des paiements courants: une analyse des mesures d’ajustements à court terme. — L’article s’occupe d’un grand nombre des PVD non-pétrole qui principalement dépendent d’agences officielles ou de leurs réserves comme source de financer des déficits dans leurs balances des paiements courants. Malheureusement, beaucoup de ces pays avaient eu peu de réserves au commencement de la période récente des chocs de prix pétrolier comme résultat des événements de 1973/74 et de la suivante récession mondiale. En conséquence, l’auteur ne suppose aucune mobilité de capital, mais un régime des taux de change fixes. Il suppose de plus que le pays ne peut pas influencer le prix pour les produits finis importés, mais qu’il a quelque pouvoir de monopole sur ses marchés d’exportations. Les conséquences directes d’un choc de prix pétrolier sur la production, les prix, l’investissement et la balance des paiements courants sont analysés aussi bien que plusieurs mesures d’ajuster cette balance (la politique monétaire et commerciale et la politique du taux de change) en supposant que des salaires réels soient flexibles ou rigides.

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Resumen Shocks de precios del petroleo y la cuenta corriente: un análisis de medidas de ajuste de corto plazo. — El artfculo se ocupa de un amplio grupo de paises en desarrollo no productores de petróleo que dependen de agencias oficiales o rèservas propias como fuente de financiamiento para dèficits de cuenta corriente. Desafortunadamente, muchos de estos paises ingresaron al periodo corriente de shocks del petroleo con una dèbil posici?n de rèservas, como resultado de los acontecimientos de 1973/74 y la recesión mundial sobreviniente. Por lo tanto, en el modelo nosotros suponemos que no hay movilidad de capital, pero un règimen cambiario fijo, y que el pais adopta los precios en el mercado de bienes finales importados, pero tiene algún poder monopólico en su mercado de exportación. Se analizan los efectos de impacto de un shock del petróleo sobre el producto, precios, inversiones y cuenta corriente como tambièn varias medidas de ajuste de cuenta corriente (politica monetaria, politica cambiaria y polftica comercial) bajo el supuesto de salarios reaies flexibles y rigidos.

     

Policy coordination among the ASEAN-5: A global VAR analysis

This paper aims to analyse the feasibility of policy coordination among the ASEAN-5 economies. This is done by determining whether they experience symmetric responses to common shocks. Given that the problem of dimensionality plagues large-scale macroeconomic modelling, a Global VAR model by Pesaran, Schuermann, and Weiner (2004) and Dees, Mauro, Pesaran, and Smith (2007) is used. The results in this paper provide some weak evidence of symmetric responses to the common (global) shocks of interest: a US monetary policy shock, a US output shock, a Chinese output shock; an oil price shock. Shocks from the US produced the most symmetric responses. The lack of symmetry in some cases has implications for further policy coordination. Since migrant remittances could provide an adjustment mechanism, further labour market integration is needed as it currently lags behind trade and financial integration in the region.     

中国经常账户失衡的深层次原因探析——美国金融霸权视角

我国经常账户已连续十多年保持顺差，近几年更是呈现出逐渐升高的态势。金融霸权作为美国长期维持大量贸易逆差和资本流入的基础，正是我国出现巨额顺差的深层次原因。中国经常项目顺差是美国金融优势、强势美元政策和国家根本利益在国际收支账户上的集中表现，是由金融霸权决定的利益分配格局。在短期，我国必须坚决保护自身比较优势、坚持汇率稳步提升和多渠道消化贸易顺差。而在长期，只有建立起强大的金融产业和实现人民币国际化才能从根本上摆脱对美国金融霸权的依赖，实现我国的经济平衡。     

Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence from 15 OECD Countries

In an extended Balassa–Samuelson model, long-run real exchange rates are determined by relative productivity and terms of trade. We present evidence of systematic long-run relationships between these fundamental variables and real exchange rates in a data set covering 15 OECD countries from 1960 to 1996. High relative productivity is associated with real exchange rate appreciations in most cases. There is less support for the hypothesis that the terms of trade affect equilibrium real exchange rates.     

国内价格的汇率传递性——基于VAR模型的实证研究

本文利用VAR模型研究了我国国内价格的汇率传递性。VAR模型的脉冲反应函数显示,存在人民币汇率对国内价格的不完全传递性,但是,传递弹性极低,进口价格指数的汇率传递弹性要强于消费价格指数的汇率传递弹性,且进口价格指数向消费价格指数传导逐渐衰减。因此,通过汇率升值来抑制通胀效果并不理想,从紧的货币政策才是医治通胀的良药。     

The Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate Under Fixed and Floating Exchange Rate Regimes

This article investigates the behavior of real exchange rates under fixed and flexible exchange rates. Using data from both the Bretton Woods and the modern floating periods, we decompose real exchange rate movements into components attributable to supply shocks, real demand shocks, monetary shocks, capital flows shocks, and real oil price shocks. Empirical results show that real demand shocks are an important source of real exchange rate movements under both fixed and flexible rates, while monetary shocks are negligible. Supply and oil price shocks seem to be more important under Bretton Woods, while capital flows shocks seem to explain a relatively higher proportion of real exchange rate movements under the modern floating period.     

资本项目开放进程中人民币汇率制度选择

文章指出积极稳妥推进人民币资本项目开放是人民币汇率改革循序渐进的内在要求,也是经济金融市场改革和经济发展的必然趋势。当前,人民币资本项目开放与汇率制度有着紧密的内在联系,更加开放的资本项目需要更加灵活的汇率制度,包括短期的汇率目标制和中长期的有管理的真正的浮动汇率制度。     

我国的外汇储备规模探析

20世纪90年代以来我国外汇储备呈现出持续增长的态势,目前的外汇储备规模已远远超过了我国外汇储备的适度规模。文章在分析我国高额外汇储备的利弊基础上,提出了降低我国外汇储备规模的政策建议。     

Global current account adjustment: trade implications for the euro area countries

Although the euro area is not one of the major players in current global imbalances, the rebalancing of the current global imbalances is coupled with a significant appreciation of the euro against. In this paper, I present estimations of trade equations for individual euro area countries using a vector error correction model. Each euro area member has got a different trade elasticity, in the short as well as in the short run. Results show that exchange rate innovations affect individual euro area countries at different rates, complicating the response of the euro area’s one-size-fits-all monetary policy.

人民币实际汇率与外商直接投资的实证分析

本文通过运用协整分析和格兰杰因果关系检验方法对1980-2004年间的外商直接投资与人民币汇率的关系进行了研究,文章认为外商直接投资的增加会导致人民币汇率的升值,其研究结果表明:人民币汇率与外商直接投资之间存在着长期的均衡关系,而且外商直接投资是人民币汇率的格兰杰原因。