Incorporating Delphi results in system dynamics models: A case of Indian tea industry

The results of a Delphi study on the future of the Indian tea industry are presented. Most of the information obtained for the study helps in formulating and validating a system dynamics model. The model also considers the occurrence of new events as visualized by the panelists. It is shown, however, that the policies recommended by the panelists yield poor industry behavior when Delphi-predicted new events operate in the environment. This may be due to lack of comprehension of the complexity of interaction between policies proposed and new events visualized by the panelists. On the basis of this investigation, it is proposed that Delphi and system dynamics studies should complement each other in arriving at viable policy decisions.     

Social technology and economic development

The large gap between the best available technology and technology in use, especially in the less developed world, is primarily due to social and cultural factors that can only be changed by means of deliberately applied social technologies. Thus, conventional strategies for global population stabilization, economic development, and environmental improvement often put the cart before the horse.     

Consequences of increasing scarcity on affluent countries

A theory of continuous structural changes in countries and a theory of discontinuous structural changes are used to predict the consequences of increasing scarcity on countries with some affluence. The prognosis is disheartening. According to the theory of continuous change, increasing scarcity will directly or indirectly increase the inequality, centralization, disintegration, disturbances, repression, and both national and international conflict and will directly or indirectly decrease socioeconomic development, legitimacy, and democracy. These changes will be unpopular and create pressures for discontinuous change to prevent them. Furthermore, increasing scarcity will increase the desire for structural change and weaken the regime's capacity to manage the situation. Thus the pressure for structural change will be strong. Scarcity also interferes with the peaceful restructuring of democracies in their efforts to cope with the crisis. When these theories are used in predicting the future of modern countries under conditions of prolonged scarcity, they suggest that elitist democracies and elitist nondemocracies are likely to be restructured into egalitarian nondemocracies. Egalitarian democracies will survive as such if they are blessed with exceptional leadership. Otherwise they also might be restructured in the direction of egalitarian nondemocracy.     

Forecasting the impact of new technologies on the future job market

This paper examines recent occupational projections in order to determine how new technologies will affect future job growth in the United States. The first part of the paper reviews the methodologies used to derive occupational projections, focusing on how adjustments for technological change are incorporated into the forecasts. The second part of the paper reviews the most recent projections produced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and compares them with projections produced by other organizations. The results reveal that neither high-technology industries nor high-technology occupations will supply many new jobs over the next decade. Instead, future job growth will favor service and clerical jobs that require little or no postsecondary schooling and that pay below-average wages.     

Improved rangeland management with an Earth Resource Survey system

Recent advances in communications and satellite technology now make it possible to provide large, synoptic imagery of the earth's surface at relatively low cost. This paper reports on acase study that was designed to estimate the benefits that might be realized by rangeland managers from an Earth Resources Survey system. Information needs and current practices are first discussed and then related to available remote sensing and data distribution techniques. The analysis showed that cost savings from an applications system would be broadly evident in the areas of resource re-allocation, range productivity, and livestock management. Depending upon the assumptions concerning the discount rate and factors affecting technological diffusion, total benefits were estimated to range from $38.7 million to $115.4 million over 10-year operational period.     

Further issues in forecasting primary energy consumption

The series of papers by Marchetti [8, 9, 10] and Graham and Senge [4] (published in this journal between 1977 and 1980) represents a useful alternative approach to the problems of energy demand forecasting and primary energy substitution. The learning system approach seems a most appropriate investigative framework, given the aggregated treatment of the energy supply-demand system. It is also interesting for its attempt to establish a link between the structure of the primary energy markets and the 50–60 year cycles of basic innovations.This paper seeks to illustrate further conclusions from the reported research findings, by considering additional energetic criteria. These additional criteria—energy concentration (or quality) and energy accessibility—appear to reinforce the linkage between innovation waves and primary energy substitution patterns, though we modify the interpretation placed on this connection. Furthermore, the additional criteria lead to alternative conclusions about future energy supply, namely that previously discarded energy sources may be revisited and may retain some of their earlier market share.     

Characteristics of growth and limitations in electronics

Since its origin about 75 years ago, electronics has grown faster than any other major engineering discipline. Analysis of the essential characteristics of electronics leads to the conclusion that the normal growth-limiting mechanisms are not operative in this area. The commitment of electronics to information handling is stipulated and it is concluded that electronic information processing is a new milestone in a field that is vital for human survival and that is as old as mankind. Though growth in electronics is open-ended, as in other engineering branches, developments within the field are subject to recognizable constraints. These constraints are identified and classified. Most of them turn out to be relative and sliding with the progress of time. The consequences of changing patterns of constraints are illustrated on past developments and their possible impact on future trends is brought forward.     

Technological change in the military aircraft industry

This paper analyzes technological change in the U.S. military aircraft industry. It divides this technological change into two components, methods of production and product quality innovations. The basic findings of this paper are obtained from a comparison of the F-4 and F-15 technologies. The results show that new production technologies reduce the costs of manufacturing a weapon system, but that product improvements substantially increase costs.     

Japan's technology trade

Japan's heavy importation of technology is placed within a historical context and found to be highly efficient in terms of the country's economic development goals. The Asian nation's comprehensive approach in securing and importing the appropriate know-how together with the necessary investments in human resources and capital all aided the transfer and employment of the acquired technology. Statistics on education and study and the use of foreign expertise and schools are cited to illustrate the various efforts at keeping abreast of the West during the turmoil of the last century. Over the long term, these efforts have proved consistent and in the end, usually rewarding. Currently, the trade picture appears poised for a fundamental change as Japan becomes a net exporter of advanced technology. Such a shift will have worldwide consequences for science and commerce.     

Political risk analysis for Canada and Mexico

A new methodology for political risk analysis was developed and applied to Canada and Mexico. The ideas of an interdisciplinary team of corporate and country experts were obtained in mid-1982 via a two-round Delphi inquiry on socioeconomic change and a survey on business contingencies in Canada and Mexico. The information provided by the panelists was used to describe possible future conditions in Canada and Mexico in the context of alternative U.S. and international conditions.     

Trade in technology : Management decisions and pricing

In this article, a model of technology price estimation is developed. The process of trade in technology is seen as resulting in a partial transfer of the market in which the seller of the technology had previously sold his product to the buyer of the technology. Profit decrease of the seller because of market cuts is taken as the basis for the pricing of technology. The random nature of the useful lifetime of the technology is taken into account, and the influence of seller-firm characteristics on the technology price is analyzed.     

Limits and possibilities of large-scale long-range societal models

It is argued that the appropriate criteria for evaluating large-scale long-range societal (or “world”) models differ significantly from the criteria that are appropriate for short-range econometric models or for small “toy” models. World models are designed to elucidate major societal problems arising from the interaction of many loosely connected factors—demographic, economic, technological, and environmental—that can be safely neglected in short-range extrapolative models. World models are also intended to explore the implications of long-range policy alternatives. Consequently, it is important that world models be phenomenological, rather than statistical, and they must “capture” the essence of some inherently nonlinear phenomena. This implies achieving qualitative realism without imposing an unwarranted assumption of causal determinism. Unfortunately, the mathematical characteristics of large nonlinear systems may essentially preclude meaningful long-run forecasts.     

Change mechanisms in the diffusion of residential energy conservation practices: an empirical study

Four types of variables that affect the diffusion of home energy conservation measures are assessed. These variables are the information possessed by households, household attitudes, the economic and demographic characteristics of households, and the attributes of conservation measures. A causal model of behavior change is presented based on Fishbein's theory of reasoned action. The model is tested using panel data on 225 homeowners from Decatur, Illinois and two conservation practices: employing winter night-time thermostat setbacks and adding attic insulation. The results illustrate the importance of all four change mechanisms. Many nonadopters have erroneous information about the financial and other benefits of the two practices. The elderly and the poor are particularly ill-informed. Negative attitudes are closely related to discomfort (for night-time setback) and expense (for attic insulation). As expected, barriers and incentives differ across population subgroups and innovations.     

Interdisciplinary problems in doing impact assessment : The case of Lake Shelbyville

A multidisciplinary team of biologists, economists, engineers, planners, and sociologists were assembled to do an ex-post facto analysis of a flood control reservoir ten years after initial operations. Within the context of a research university, the authors suggest ways to 1) improve project administration, 2) combat disciplinary chauvinism, 3) facilitate the understanding and exchange of data across disciplines, 4) reward the work of graduate students in a fair and equitable manner, and 5) assist the principal investigator in achieving the goal of an interdisciplinary study. The importance of project associates in the day-to-day operation of the study is reviewed in detail.This paper details the administrative problems of the University of Illinois' interdisciplinary effort to examine the “real” environmental impacts of the Lake Shelbyville reservoir 10 years after it had begun operation. Lake Shelbyville is a U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reservoir located in east-central Illinois. Land acquisition began in 1962 and the reservoir was in operation by 1971. While not implying that “apples and oranges” don't mix, problems do result when we try to bring together a group of disciplinary researchers. We write with the hope that the suggestions outlined here will keep environmental impact assessment research interdisciplinary. One of the reasons for the present “environmental fix” is the single discipline approach to environmental problems.A true interdisciplinary effort is necessary for a comprehensive assessment of the impacted physical and social environments, yet “interdisciplinary” can easily become a false label. If the principal investigator and researchers are not attentive to project administration on a day-to-day basis, the old saying about integrating findings “with a staple” can easily result. Rather than integrated assessment, the study report may resemble a series of miniature discipline based projects that read like the list of university departments.     

Technological substitution in the United States pulp and paper industry: The sulfate pulping process

This paper presents an econometric analysis of the diffusion of the sulfate pulping process throughout the U.S. pulp and paper industry. A dynamic equilibrium, Gompertz diffusion function is employed to derive a multivariate estimation model which incorporates more information than the traditional approach of estimating the growth rate function alone. The empirical results suggest that the econometric approach provides a useful integration of the technological diffusion process and the comparative static theory of demand. The sulfate pulping process is projected to continue capturing market share at a relatively rapid rate, and could account for 90% or more of total U.S. woodpulp production by the year 2000.