经济增长、产业发展与就业结构在中国的实证检验

经济增长与居民就业之间既存在正面效应,又存在负面效应,在不同发展时期其效应有不同的表现,总体上二者间呈现倒"U"型关系。实证分析经济增长与就业结构之间的关系发现,我国经济增长对城镇和农村就业的拉动效应均有限,但对城镇的影响要大于农村。通过对三次产业结构偏离度的分析发现,第一产业存在较大的剩余劳动力,第二产业的劳动力明显不足,第三产业的产业发展与就业则相对均衡。因此,实施积极的产业和就业政策至关重要。     

农村劳动力非农就业与土地流转——基于动力视角的研究

劳动力转移理论表明,农村劳动力非农就业的动力可能是农业收入下降或非农部门工资上涨。虽然都能促进非农就业,但这两种因素对土地市场的作用机制并不相同。基于此,笔者考察了短期内农村劳动力非农就业与土地流转的关系。结果表明,劳动力非农就业与土地流转的关系因非农就业动力而异。农业收入下降推动农村劳动力非农就业,抑制农户间比较优势发挥,抑制土地流转;而非农部门工资上涨拉动农村劳动力非农就业,促进农户间比较优势发挥,促进土地流转。因此,非农就业市场与土地流转市场的关系并不等同于家庭劳动力非农就业与农户土地流转行为的关系。劳动力大量非农就业没有引发土地快速流转的原因可能是农业经营环境恶化,利润下降。     

Tenure, business cycle and the wage-setting process

We analyze the interaction between job tenure and external labor market conditions in wage determination. First, we introduce a model that combines job matching with business-cycle effects. As the employment relationship progresses, the worker appropriates a portion of the value of the match-specific human capital she accumulates, gradually becoming shielded from the cyclical variations in external labor market conditions: the employment relationship is progressively “internalized”. Then, we present empirical evidence supporting this prediction: the elasticity of wages to the unemployment rate decreases with tenure. This finding is robust to different specifications that allow for job heterogeneity, and it contributes to the interpretation of recent evidence of changes in the effect of the business cycle on wages.     

Wage and price differences,technology gap and labor flow dynamics

The relationship between wage difference and relative employment is a very important issue in the field of economic structural change. An M-sector economic growth model is constructed in this paper to investigate the relationship between wage difference, price difference, technology gap, relative employment and sectoral dynamic change from the perspective of technologies. Labor flow is regarded as a decision-making behavior to maximize the benefits of economic agents. The benefits of labor flow mainly come from sectoral wage difference, and the costs of labor flow mainly come from the social resource expenditure during labor flow process. Our model illustrates that: (i) the relative employment is positively correlated with the real wage difference and technology gap; (ii) the sectoral dynamic changes coexist with the aggregate economic growth; (iii) increases in technology gap, and price and wage differences will stimulate labor migration, exacerbate the unbalanced growth of sectoral economies, and lead to faster and more effective aggregate economic growth.     

宏观经济景气波动对就业增长的影响

中国不成熟的市场经济和特殊的人口环境使得用就业弹性和奥肯定律均无法有效反映我国经济增长与就业关系,更无法刻画经济波动对就业的冲击。本文从宏观经济景气波动影响就业增长的三个路径：劳动力供给、劳动力需求和政府公共就业政策来建立系统的分析模型,以探析经济波动与就业增长的长期均衡关系和滞后冲击效应。在劳动力供给系统中,经济波动使经济活动人口增多,加快了就业增长;在劳动力需求系统中,经济波动不利于经济增长,从而不利于劳动力需求增长;在政府就业促进政策系统中,社会保障和就业的投入缓和了经济波动对就业增长的冲击。     

国家控股、超额雇员与劳动力成本

与以往很多直接检验股权性质与公司绩效之关系的研究不同,本文选择1999—2002年健康运营的上市公司为样本,从公司雇员角度研究了控股股东的所有制性质对上市公司社会性负担的影响。经验证据表明,国家控股公司比非国家控股公司雇佣了更多的员工,并且国家控股公司的超额雇员主要源自上市初的历史遗留冗员;超额雇员和高工资率共同导致国家控股公司承担了比非国家控股公司更高的劳动力成本。此外,还发现在国家控股公司中,国资部门控股公司的超额雇员最多、劳动力成本最高;并且相对其他公司而言,该类公司上市后可能继续超额雇员。因此,推进上市公司产权多元化改革和避免国家直接控股,对改善公司治理具有积极意义。     

非全日制用工制度下劳动者的权益保护

随着社会的不断发展、市场经济体系的不断健全和完善,我国的劳动力供求关系也在发生着变化。非全日制用工作为一种新的灵活用工形式出现在我国城市劳动力就业形态中。非全日制用工的迅猛发展暴露出许多不完善之处,让用人单位有机可乘,钻法律的空子,使劳动者的合法权益遭到损害。     

Swedish Multinationals and Competition from High- and Low-Wage Locations

This study uses data on Swedish multinationals to estimate cross-elasticities of labor demand in different locations. With a vertical decomposition of the firm's activities, whether there is substitution or complementarity between employment in different parts of the firm will depend on whether wage changes lead to a relocation of activities or simply to changes in marginal costs and/or demand for inputs in other parts of the firms. It is found that there is some evidence of a substitutionary relationship between employment in the Swedish parts of the firms and employment in other high-income locations, but no evidence of substitution stemming from employment in low-income locations.     

内陆开放地区对外贸易、资本投资与就业分析——以重庆市为例

根据重庆市1987-2009年的统计数据,利用协整理论和向量误差修正模型(VECM),对重庆市对外贸易、资本投资与就业的关系进行实证分析,结果表明:从长期来看,重庆市进出口与就业之间存在唯一的协整关系;出口对就业具有拉动作用,而进口对就业有阻碍作用,并且出口对就业的促进作用小于进口对就业的抑制作用;而资本投入在一定程度上对劳动力产生了替代性.重庆市应通过协调产业发展、打造对外贸易新平台、均衡资本在区域、行业间的投入促进就业.     

外来劳动力挤占了本地居民的就业机会吗??

城市就业包容性的提升是实现城镇化发展的重要内容,而异质外来移民对原有居民的就业机会将产生不同影响.文章运用动态监测数据,按劳动力的技能水平、所属行业和流入时期分析城市劳动力市场的就业包容性,衡量人力资本等因素在异质外来劳动力就业过程中的作用机制.研究发现：(1)总体而言,人力资本的差异性取代传统的行业壁垒已成为获取就业机会的主要因素.(2)进一步使用工具变量,对劳动力组群的就业决定模型进行估计发现,外来劳动力占比每上升10％,城市原有劳动力的就业率将下降0．04－1．99个百分点,表现为外来劳动力对城市原有低技能劳动力就业率的影响并不明显,但对高技能劳动力的就业率产生显著冲击,且此现象在部分高进入门槛行业尤为明显.(3)城市劳动力市场对不同时期流入的高技能组劳动力的包容性显著低于低技能组,高技能组劳动力之间存在更高的替代性.(4)与本地劳动力的就业率相比,新进入的外来劳动力对前期进入的外来劳动力的就业率的影响会更大,且这种影响同样会随着受教育程度的提高而递增.因此,在完善就业市场的同时,应在就业的前置和后置环节制定更有针对性的人才培养机制和引入措施.     

最低工资对中国就业和工资水平的影响

本文以1998—2007年全国各市(地区、自治州、盟)最低工资标准随时间变化的外生差异来识别最低工资上涨与企业平均工资、企业雇佣人数的关系。利用1998—2007年规模以上制造业企业报表数据进行的分析显示,最低工资每上涨10%,制造业企业平均工资将整体上涨0.4%—0.5%。借助2006—2007年福建省最低工资上涨的"准自然实验"本文也证实了该结论。对于不同行业、不同人均资本水平的企业,最低工资上涨的影响也存在异质性。最低工资将更多地增加劳动密集型或人均资本较低企业的平均工资。研究还发现,最低工资每增加10%,制造业企业雇佣人数将显著减少0.6%左右。政府在制定最低工资时应权衡其在收入分配上的积极效果以及其对就业的负面影响。     

集聚经济、公共基础设施与劳动生产率——来自中国城市动态面板数据的证据

文章采用2001-2007年中国城市面板数据实证检验了集聚经济、公共基础设施与城市非农劳动生产率的关系。结果表明:在控制住其他影响因素后,一个地区的就业密度和公共基础设施对其非农劳动生产率都有着显著为正的影响,但在忽略城市公共基础设施的情况下,集聚经济的估计值明显偏高了。     

Pro-market institutions and labor market outcomes: A panel-data analysis of U.S. metropolitan areas

We expand previous U.S. state-level research on the relationship between pro-market institutions and labor market outcomes by examining this relationship at the U.S. metropolitan-area level. Using panel data for 1992–2012 in a fixed-effects model, we investigate the effect of pro-market institutions on the unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, employment-population ratio, and employment growth across 366 U.S. metropolitan areas. The results indicate that pro-market institutions are associated with a lower unemployment rate, higher employment-population ratio, and faster employment growth. These results suggest that local-area policies are important for achieving favorable labor market conditions at the local level.     

控制权性质影响税收敏感性吗?——基于企业劳动力需求的检验

西方学者研究表明企业所得税是劳动力需求的重要影响因素,这一理论在中国是否适用?中国大部分上市公司为国有控股企业,这一特殊的制度背景是否会影响企业所得税与劳动力需求的关系?本文基于2007年企业所得税改革这一外生政策变化,在检验西方企业所得税与劳动力需求关系的理论在中国是否适用的基础上,就不同控制权的性质是否会影响企业劳动力需求的税收敏感性进行了检验。研究发现企业所得税税率降低和"就业税盾"增加提高了企业劳动力需求,但这种税率和"就业税盾"的变化对国有控股企业劳动力需求变化的影响要显著小于非国有控股企业。这表明税收是影响企业劳动力需求的重要因素,但国有控制权使得这种税收敏感性变弱。本文的研究结果不仅丰富了相关领域的国际学术文献,而且对我国就业政策的制定具有政策含义。     

Labor market reforms, job instability, and the flexibility of the employment relationship

We endogenize separation in a search model of the labor market and allow for bargaining over the continuation of employment relationships following productivity shocks to take place under asymmetric information. In such a setting separation may occur even if continuation of the employment relationship is privately efficient for workers and firms. We show that reductions in the cost of separation, owing for example to a reduction in firing taxes, lead to an increase in job instability and, when separation costs are initially high, may be welfare decreasing for workers and firms. We furthermore show that, in response to an exogenous reduction in firing taxes, workers and firms may switch from rigid to flexible employment contracts, which further amplifies the increase in job instability caused by policy reform.     

Labor Market Regimes,Family Policies,and Women's Behavior in the EU

Using the EU-SILC database (2005–06) for twenty-four European countries, this article develops a comparative perspective on labor market situations of women and mothers with very young children in relation to labor market institutions and policies (especially childcare and leave schemes). Using multilevel multinomial logit models, our results show firstly the heterogeneity of national arrangements of women's labor market integration in Europe (including among new member states). Secondly, our results show the links between some national policy variables and women's behavior, despite the fact that individual factors explain labor market situations the most. Women's employment is positively related to formal childcare and to characteristics of national labor market regimes. The use of informal childcare is associated with lower women's employment rates, which might be explained by a substitution effect. The employment rate of mothers with very young children is positively related to public childcare and negatively to parental leave.     

和谐劳动关系与和谐社会的契合

和谐社会即际关系的和谐,亦即人们在劳动过程中彼此结成的劳动关系的和谐。我们构建和谐社会,重要的是谋求构建和谐劳动关系条件下的和谐社会,这包括:(1)构建市场就业体制及其劳动关系和谐基础上的和谐社会;(2)构建劳动力所有权、劳动者利益主体地位明晰及其劳动关系和谐基础上的和谐社会;(3)构建促进人的全面发展及其劳动关系和谐基础上的和谐社会。     

The Feminization U in South Africa: Economic Structure and Women's Labor Force Participation

The feminization U theory claims that women’s labor force participation drops during the initial phase of industrialization and rises once a certain level of development is reached. This paper is the first to exploit the diversity in economic structure across municipalities to consider the shape of the feminization U in a developing country. Using data from South Africa’s 2007 Community Survey, this study investigates whether a feminization U exists. Results reveal a U-shaped relationship between the share of nonagricultural employment and women’s probability of being in the labor force. Results show that the exclusion of informal urban employment leads to an overestimation of the U slope and part of the decline in women’s labor force participation during early structural change is likely related to household and care constraints. A U-shaped relationship is not found between the share of households with electricity and women’s probability of being in the labor force.     

家庭结构对青年群体劳动参与率的影响

家庭结构对青年群体劳动参与率有影响。基于CGSS2008数据,通过Probit和IV Probit模型实证分析发现:从总体看,多代同堂的家庭结构对青年群体的劳动参与产生抑制作用,而男性青年的就业参与受家庭结构的影响程度却高于女性青年劳动参与的影响程度;从户籍看,农村青年的就业参与受家庭结构的影响程度高于城市青年劳动参与的影响程度。重视青年群体的家庭特征差异,配套实行就业促进措施,是我国政府解决青年群体就业难的着力点。     

Employment impact of public construction

This note analyzes the employment impacts of three different types of public construction projects. These impacts involve the labor content of a construction dollar, the time pattern of employment, and the labor force composition.