A fractionally cointegrated VAR analysis of economic voting and political support

We use a fractionally cointegrated vector autoregressive model to examine the relationship between Canadian political support and macroeconomic conditions. This model is well suited for the analysis because it allows multiple fractional time series and admits simple asymptotic inference for the model parameters and tests of the hypotheses of interest. In the long‐run equilibrium, we find that support for the Progressive Conservative Party was higher during periods of high interest rates and low unemployment, while support for the Liberal Party was higher during periods of low interest rates and high unemployment. We also test and reject the notion that party support is driven only by relative (to the United States) economic performance. Indeed, our findings suggest that US macroeconomic variables do not enter the long‐run equilibrium of Canadian economic voting (political opinion poll support) at all.     

International Trade and the Equilibrium Rate of Unemployment in a Heckscher-Ohlin World Economy

This paper develops a (stylized Asia-America) Heckscher-Ohlin world economy in which the equilibrium rate of unemployment is endogenous. We examine the impact of various economic shocks on unemployment in the global economy. Harrod-neutral or Hicks-neutral technical progress across all industries in Asia leads to a terms of trade improvement for America but raises America's unemployment rate. Introducing a third country such as the block of former socialist economies results in higher unemployment for both Asia and America. Protection in America lowers American equilibrium unemployment but raises Asia's unemployment. [E24]     

IMMIGRATION UNEMPLOYMENT RELATIONSHIP: THE EVIDENCE FROM CANADA*

This paper examines the relationship between unemployment and immigration in Canada. The bi‐directional causality test finds no evidence of a significant effect of Canadian immigration on unemployment. Cointegration tests indicate that there is no observed increase in aggregate unemployment due to immigration in the long run. The results from the causality test based on the vector error correction model confirm that, in the short run, past unemployment does cause (less) immigration but not vice versa. There is also a long‐run positive relationship among per‐capita GDP, immigration rate and real wages. The results indicate that, in the short‐run, more immigration is possibly associated with attractive Canadian immigration policies, and in the long‐run, as the labour market adjusts, Canadian‐born workers are likely to benefit from increased migration.     

EDUCATION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT-THE CANADIAN CASE*

This study assesses the relationship of education and economic growth, economic development and economic progress in aggregate, in structural and in micro-economic terms on the basis of one hundred years of Canadian experience. Education is considered as a factor of input. The contribution made by knowledge resulting from additional education expands the capacity to produce, and increases the demand for goods and services and the desire for greater leisure. The dual function of education is stressed: the demand and supply effect. Education is examined both as a cause and a consequence of economic growth, economic development and economic progress, through its contribution to the quality of the labour force, earning capacity, both individual and national, productivity, the rate of economic growth and the character of economic development. The Canadian experience suggests that educational progress generally occurred in line with economic development during the first eight decades, with the real take-off in educational advancement only occurring in the last two decades, when the nation reached the stage of technological maturity and high mass-consumption. Among the reasons for the lower ratio of gross national product devoted to education in the first eight decades were the low priority attached to education, the emphasis on investment in physical capital because of its shorter pay-off period than investment in human capital, and the heavy reliance on a substantial flow of immigrants who had obtained their education and training abroad. A distinct change occurred, however, in the last two decades, partly as a result of new technological challenges and partly as the result of changes in private and public attitudes, as the recognition of the rewards of education in terms of individual advancement and social progress led to a greater willingness to devote an increasing proportion of the nation's resources to investment in human capital, long pay-off periods notwithstanding.     

Capital Accumulation and Unemployment: A Tale of Two "Continents"

In contrast to much recent work regarding the causes of European unemployment, in this paper we emphasize the importance of capital accumulation. But unlike the few previous studies which have examined the relationship between capital accumulation and unemployment, we argue that what matters for the evolution of employment (and the unemployment rate) is not the absolute growth rate of a country's capital stock, but its evolution relative to other countries' capital stock. The empirical validity of the above statement is demonstrated for almost all OECD countries using quarterly time-series data for the period 1961–1995. More detailed evidence is also presented for Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom.     

ALTERNATIVE MEASURES OF THE AVERAGE DURATION OF UNEMPLOYMENT

Four alternative measures of the average duration of unemployment are examined with the intention of illustrating: (1) the biases inherent in the average incomplete duration of unemployment, a statistic that is often the only one reported by many statistical agencies; and (2) the robustness of the average complete duration of unemployment to a host of assumptions underlying its derivation by non-parametric methods. Canadian data are employed, but the results offer a guide to the construction of the average complete duration of unemployment that may have broader applications.     

Deriving natural rates of unemployment for sub-national regions: the case of Canadian provinces

In order to pursue informed stabilization policies, it is vital for policy-markers to have estimates of how much of the total unemployment rate can be classified as cyclical rather than natural unemployment. This paper describes a method for generating regional natural-rate estimates and applies this method to the case of Canadian provinces. Results indicate that unemployment insurance generosity and relative minimum wages play an important role in determining natural unemployment rates in Canadian provinces. One of the enduring characteristics of the Canadian labour market has been substantial and peresistent unemployment rate disparities across provinces. The results of this study indicate that these disparities are primarily explained by differences in provincial values of structural variables such as unemployment generosity and by differences in provincial sensitivities to these structural variables. A furher result is that variation in cyclical unemployment rates is substantially less in the traditionally high unemployment region of Atlantic Canada than it is in the traditionally low unemployment province of Ontario. This result implies that the most appropriate policies to reduce unemployment in Atlantic Canada are not regionally-applied expenditure policies but rather policies designed to reduce structural distortions in the provincial labour markets.     

The ‘trendiness’ of sleep: an empirical investigation into the cyclical nature of sleep time

Using Canadian time use data, we exploit variation in local unemployment rates to investigate the cyclical nature of sleep time and show that for both men and women, sleep time decreases when the economy is doing relatively better. Our results suggest that in a recession Canadians sleep an average of 3 h more per week, or 26?min more per day. Given the importance of even small changes in sleep time on measures of cognitive functioning such as reaction time and concentration, our findings may help explain the countercyclical nature of mortality. Further, as we find that sleep is affected by the same economic variables (notably the unemployment rate) that affect market work time, our results also contribute to the limited literature that shows that sleep time should not be treated as exogenously determined, but, like any other resource, determined by its relative cost.     

Examining the link between crime and unemployment: a time-series analysis for Canada

We use national and regional Canadian data to analyse the relationship between economic activity (as reflected by the unemployment rate) and crime rates. Given potential aggregation bias, we disaggregate the crime data and look at the relationship between six different types of crimes rates and unemployment rate; we also disaggregate the data by region. We employ an error correction model in our analysis to test for short-run and long-run dynamics. We find no evidence of long-run relationship between crime and unemployment, when we look at both disaggregation by type of crime and disaggregation by region. Lack of evidence of a long-run relationship indicates we have no evidence of the motivation hypothesis. For selected types of property crimes, we find some evidence of a significant negative short-run relationship between crime and unemployment, lending support to the opportunity hypothesis. Inclusion of control variables in the panel analysis does not alter the findings, qualitatively or quantitatively.     

Education public financing and economic growth: an endogenous growth model versus evidence

Using an Endogenous Growth Model with physical and human capital and unemployment (Mauro and Carmeci in J Macroecon 25:123–137, 2003), we study the effects of subsidies to education in economic growth. According to the model, we conclude that government subsidies to education only enhance economic growth conditional on unemployment and that this relationship is negatively influenced by unemployment. We provide evidence from a broad panel data of countries that confirms the importance of unemployment in the relationship between subsidies to education and economic growth but dismiss its importance as a direct determinant of economic growth.      

Economic determinants of the consumption of alcoholic beverages in Canada: a panel data analysis

In this article, the economic determinants of the demand for three alcoholic beverages (wine, spirits, and beer) are investigated with a focus on the price, income and unemployment effects. The investigation is conducted within the fixed effects panel regression framework using a balanced panel for ten Canadian provinces spanning the years 1981–2004. The estimated own price elasticities indicate that increased government taxation is an effective tool for curtailing the consumption of spirits (at the expense of lower government tax revenue), but it is less effective for curtailing the consumption of wine or beer. The cross-price elasticity estimates reveal that taxing beer or spirits may not be an effective tool for encouraging consumption switch from these alcoholic beverages to wine in light of wine’s greater health benefits. Income emerges as an important determinant of the consumption of both wine and spirits but not of beer, whereas unemployment emerges as an important determinant of the consumption of beer but not of wine or spirits. With respect to unemployment, we find no support for the addiction hypothesis in the case of wine and spirits and strong support for the severe budget constraint hypothesis in the case of beer.     

Unemployment and interindustry labour mobility in Canada in the 1980s

The determinants of interindustry mobility of labour, and its relationship to the unemployment rate is examined, using micro-data on Canadian workers from 1980/81, 1982/83 and 1985/86. It contrasts the implications of the ‘dynamic reallocation’ model (Lilien, 1982) in which rising aggregate unemployment is due to in creased dispersion in the net hiring rates of firms (implying positive covariance of interindustry mobility and unemployment rates) with the older ‘Keynesian’ perspective that high unemployment ‘chills’ labour market mobility, implying a neative relationship. Qualified support is obtained for the ‘chilling’ model, as well as standard results on the role of job tenure, hours worked, etc. The general moral is the cyclical sensitivity of labour market behaviour, i.e. individuals appear to react to the aggregate unemployment rate.     

影响欧元区经济增长的因素分析

除2001年以外,欧元区的经济增长水平一直低于世界发达经济体。根本原因是其技术进步相对落后,劳动力市场僵化,失业率居高不下。以价格稳定为首要目标的单一货币政策,有利于其宏观经济稳定,但在一定程度上制约了经济的快速增长;共同财政纪律,有利于其经济顺利推进,但是削弱了各成员国运用财政政策抵御国内经济周期性振荡以及外部经济失衡的能力,尤其在经济衰退时期限制了各国利用扩张性财政政策刺激经济的手段。     

Australia's Unemployment Problem

A number of Australian studies have provided microeconomic and macroeconomic perspectives on the causes of, and solutions to, Australia's unemployment problem. This paper provides an evaluation of these studies. Several important findings can be noted. First, from the cross-sectional studies economists have gained a good understanding of the factors contributing to a high probability of unemployment. Effective use is currently being made of this information. Second, there is general consensus from the time-series studies regarding the estimates of the aggregate labour demand wage and output elasticities. In addition, it has been widely acknowledged that lower real wages and economic growth would help reduce the high rate of unemployment. Despite the information available we are making slow progress towards reducing the unemployment rate. This may be due to political reasons or because we are unsure of how to deliver the wage cuts and faster rates of economic growth presented as solutions to the unemployment problem.     

Immigration and the unemployment benefit programme in Australia

A widely held view is that immigrants contribute to public debt through their over representation in the unemployment benefit programme. An empirical investigation, based on the 1990 Income Distribution Survey, finds support for this view. In contrast to the US and Canadian studies, this paper observes that the probability of receiving unemployment benefits is higher for immigrants than the native-born population and immigrants, who participate in the unemployment benefit programme, also receive a greater amount of unemployment benefits.     

The Beveridge Curve and regional disparities in Canada

The Beveridge curve establishes an inverse relationship between the unemployment rate and the vacancy rate. It has been documented and discussed at length by Blanchard and Diamond (1989) for the United States. The unemployment–vacancy relationships of the Canadian economy and its regions are considered. This analysis reveals some important distinctions in the behaviour of the regional Baveridge curves and some interesting similarities. At the aggregate level, the observations are not strikingly different from those of Blanchard and Diamond for the US economy.     

The NAIRU reconsidered: why labour market deregulation may raise unemployment

According to the mainstream theory of equilibrium unemployment, persistent unemployment is caused mainly by ‘excessive’ labour market regulation, whereas aggregate demand, capital accumulation and technological progress have no lasting effect on unemployment. We show that the mainstream non‐accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) model is a special case of a general model of equilibrium unemployment, in which aggregate demand, investment and endogenous technological progress do have long‐term effects. It follows that labour market deregulation does not necessarily reduce steady‐inflation unemployment. Theoretically, if the decline in real wage growth claims owing to deregulation is smaller than the ensuing decline in labour productivity growth and in the warranted real wage growth, then in that case steady‐inflation unemployment may increase. Empirical evidence for 20 Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries (1984–1997) indicates that the impact of labour market deregulation on OECD unemployment is zero, and possibly negative (causing a higher rate of unemployment).     

MARKETS, MORALS, PROPERTY, AND OTHER RIGHTS: A REJOINDER TO THE PASTORAL LETTER

The pastoral letter calls for a radical restructuring of the American economy. The restructuring is to be set on a foundation of economic rights, a social mortgage on privately held property, and a deference toward the small within the political system. The restructuring also is intended to avoid statist or totalitarian outcomes. The second half of the pastoral letter, containing the policy analysis and recommendations, is not consistent with the basic system for restructuring the economy contained in the first half. The practical visions of the second half of the pastoral letter do not provide for economic rights or a social mortgage. Analyzing the logic of the basic system for restructuring the economy shows that it is inconsistent with the bishops' intended goal of a non-statist economy. The flawed logic of the basic system explains the inconsistency between the two major parts of the pastoral letter.     

The impact of recession on drinking and smoking behaviours in Canada

Using longitudinal data from the Canadian National Population Health Survey (1994-2009), this study examined the impact of macroeconomic conditions as measured by the provincial unemployment rate on individual alcohol drinking and smoking behaviour. After controlling for unobserved individual specific heterogeneity, the study found that for the overall sample, unemployment rate has a significant positive impact on weekly alcohol consumption as well as on the probability of being a binge drinker. The study further found that unemployment rate has a significant positive impact on the number of cigarettes smoked by the daily smokers. However, unemployment rate has no impact on the probability of being a smoker. The study further examined whether or not there is a gender difference in the impact of unemployment rate on drinking and smoking behaviour. The results suggest that the impact of unemployment rate on drinking and smoking behaviour is more pronounced for males than for females.     

An aggregate model of the Canadian labor market

The paper develops and estimates a small equilibrium model of the Canadian postwar labor market. The framework is imperfect competition in product and labor markets which, we argue, is forced upon us by the empirical fact that real wages do not on their own explain the business cycle. The framework incorporates on the supply side the effects of both unemployment benefits and the terms of trade. These variables, together with demand side effects, are then used to account Canadian unemployment. A pleasing feature of the model is that it is quite econometrically stable over the turbulent '80s.