Is the importance of religion in daily life related to social trust? Cross-country and cross-state comparisons

We look at the effect of importance of religion in daily life on social trust, defined as the share of a population that thinks that people in general can be trusted. We make use of new data from the Gallup World Poll for 109 countries and 43 U.S. states. Our empirical results indicate a robust, negative relationship between this measure of religiosity and trust, both internationally and within the U.S. The size of this association increases with the degree of religious diversity.     

A sticky trait: Social trust among Swedish expatriates in countries with varying institutional quality

Social trust is linked to many desirable economic and social outcomes. Using new data from a representative sample of 2668 Swedish expatriates, we examine the robustness of high social trust in countries with different levels of institutional quality. The results suggest that individual trust decreases with length of stay in countries with high corruption and low rule of law. The effect is relatively small and driven by expatriates who were aged 30 years or below upon arrival to the new country. While other studies have found that trust among migrants adapts to destination country trust levels, we find that after the (approximate) age of 30, high trust is a sticky personality trait. The results are robust to controlling for a large array of individual characteristics (including age) and support the view that social trust is sensitive to events that occur early in life.     

Diversity and trust: The role of shared values

Social diversity has been linked to a range of socio-economic and political outcomes, generally showing that higher diversity is associated with lower socio-economic performance. In this paper we focus on the extent to which key human values and beliefs are shared in society, which captures a dimension of diversity not previously discussed. We assess the importance of value diversity by focusing on its role in fostering generalized trust within societies. We find that value diversity, in particular with regard to political ideological values concerning income redistribution and the role of the government in influencing markets, is important for understanding the international variation in trust, with high diversity being associated with lower levels of trust. This relationship is robust to controlling for various other determinants of trust, including other dimensions of diversity, and holds at various levels of aggregation.     

Remittances and rural credit markets: Evidence from Senegal

This study investigates the relationship between remittances and credit markets in Senegal, focusing on rural areas where financial constraints are more challenging. Using a household fixed effects model, the findings show that remittances and credit markets are complements; namely, the receipt of remittances is positively associated with the likelihood of having a loan in a household. This means that migrants can increase the reliability of their family members and close relatives back home through their remittances, insuring them vis‐à‐vis lenders for their credit contracts. They are the collateral or the “element of trust” in the credit contract between the borrower and the lender, representing a potential alternative in case of non‐repayment. This result is robust to alternative models and various robustness tests mitigating the potential endogeneity of remittances. A detailed analysis also shows that the relationship between remittances and credit markets is mainly driven by loans taken for consumption and food, in particular, as well as loans provided by informal institutions.     

In government we trust: The role of fiscal decentralization

This paper looks whether fiscal decentralization is associated with trust of citizens in government related institutions. We expect a positive relationship based on the argument of governments' improved responsiveness to preferences of citizens that is perceived to result from more decentralized fiscal systems. Survey data from up to 42 countries over the period 1994–2007 confirm this positive relationship. It is robust to controlling for unobserved country heterogeneity and a wide array of other explanatory variables that are associated with trust in government related institutions. Moreover, we do not find that the positive association with fiscal decentralization extends to other, non-government related institutions.     

A sensitivity analysis of the impact of democracy on economic growth

Often it is maintained that democracy is a luxury which comes at a price in terms of subsequent slower increases in national living standards. However, various recent cross-section studies on economic growth have found evidence that lack of civil and political liberties is negatively correlated with economic growth. Using various measures of democracy the robustness of previous research is examined. Both direct and indirect effects of lack of civil and political liberties are analysed. Our main conclusion is that the relationship between democracy and economic growth is not robust.     

The not so dark side of trust: Does trust increase the size of the shadow economy?

This paper reports a negative relationship between the size of the shadow economy and generalized trust, in a sample of countries, both developed and developing. That relationship is robust to controlling for a large set of economic, policy, and institutional variables, to changing the estimate of the shadow economy and the estimation period, and to controlling for endogeneity. It is independent from trust in institutions and from income inequality, and is mainly present in the sample of developing countries. Those findings suggest that the tax compliance effect of trust dominates its role as a substitute for the formal legal system.     

Trust and development

In this paper we examine linkages between social trust and economic development using, for the first time, a panel of data. We confirm earlier cross-sectional studies finding that trust is a significant factor in development and also show for the first time that trust significantly interacts with both investment in physical and human capital. We provide a robustness analysis of our results via a set of jackknife experiments on our main equations, and the trust coefficients and interactions are very tightly distributed, indicating that the results are not highly sample dependent. We also consider whether trust directly influences investment and find that in a panel framework it does not unless we allow for a trust–education interaction in the investment equation.     

Ethnic segregation and the quality of government: the importance of regional diversity

It has recently been argued that the regional segregation of ethnic or linguistic groups leads to lower government quality and that this is partly due to the negative effect of segregation on inter-group trust. In this paper I show that the relationship between ethnic segregation, trust and government quality is mediated by another dimension of regional diversity namely, regional income disparities. Accounting for regional disparities reduces the estimated impact of segregation and trust on the quality of government and reduces the statistical robustness of ethnic segregation. The analysis highlights the usefulness of identifying other factors which may be driving regional diversity, beyond ethno-linguistic characteristics.     

The autocratic roots of social distrust

This paper presents evidence that autocratic culture adversely affects social trust and political participation. We find that individuals whose ancestors migrated from countries with higher autocracy levels are less likely to trust others and to vote in presidential elections in the U.S. The impact of autocratic culture on trust can last for at least three generations while the impact on voting disappears after one generation. These impacts on trust and voting are also significant across Europe. We further access the robustness of our findings concerning selection into migration and other confounders such as home countries’ economic conditions, human capital stocks, and the strength of family ties.     

The relationship between policies and growth in transition countries

This paper combines Hendry’s general to specific procedure and Leamer’s Extreme Bounds analysis to assess the robustness of the relationship between growth in transition countries and a set of variables included in other studies. The results indicate a robust relationship between inflation and growth. A significant long–term effect of liberalization on growth is not found, which throws doubt on previous empirical studies of the relationship between liberalization and growth. However, the long–term benefits from liberalization may be indirect, via macro stability. Robustness tests also throw doubt on the effect of fiscal and exchange rate policies on growth. JEL classification: P24, P41, C23.     

从信任视角谈委托代理问题的治理

委托代理问题在很大程度上制约着委托代理双方合作关系的发展。以往的研究主要在信息不对称的假设下利用参与约束和激励相容约束条件寻找最优解,最新研究结果表明,通过引入信任机制,可以证明信任在委托代理关系中的存在性和对代理问题治理的有效性。     

Consumer Boycotts: Does Trust in Law-Making and Law-Enforcing Institutions Matter?

This article estimates the effects of trust in political and judicial institutions on individuals’ propensity to take part in consumer boycotts. In particular, this study disentangles the effects of institutional trust and quality. The analysis relies on data from the 2010 European Social Survey, which is a path breaking comparative study of how justice is perceived and allows a valid measure of judicial and political trust to be constructed. A two-step instrumental variable method was used to measure the effects of institutional trust, controlling for micro- and macro- level factors. The results indicate that trust in law-making institutions is negatively associated with boycott participation, whereas the relationship between judicial trust in institutions and an individual’s likelihood to boycott is U-shaped. The findings are robust to the introduction of social capital and sociodemographic variables.     

Trade openness and economic growth: Bayesian model averaging estimate of cross-country growth regressions

In this paper, we investigate the robustness of the relationship between trade openness and long-run economic growth over the sample period 1960–2000, utilising Bayesian model averaging techniques to account for model uncertainty issues in a systematic manner. We find no evidence that trade openness is directly and robustly correlated with economic growth in the long run. We further check the robustness of this finding by employing a battery of proxies for trade openness, namely, current openness, real openness, the fraction of open years based on the Sachs and Warner (1995) criteria and the weighted averages of tariff rates, non-tariff barriers and the black market premium. The main result is robust to the inclusion of different trade openness proxies and none of the proxies is robustly associated with economic growth. The data evidence also indicates that economic institutions and macroeconomic uncertainties such as those induced by high inflation and excess government consumption are key factors in explaining economic growth.     

Cooperation,Trust and Economic Development: An Experimental Study in China

Many previous empirical studies have suggested that cooperation and trust affect economic growth. However, the precise relationship between trust and cooperation (i.e. whether trust leads to cooperation or cooperation leads to trust) remains unclear and it is not known how the level of economic development affects the level of cooperation and trust. Using a combination of public goods, gambling game and trust game experiments, we investigate the links among cooperation, trust and economic development in four regions of China. Our results suggest that, first, there is a U‐shaped or V‐shaped relationship between cooperation and economic development. Second, on the one hand, cooperation leads to trust, and on the other hand, more cooperative behaviour may be created by rewarding trusting behaviour. Third, men are more cooperative and trusting than women. Furthermore, we find that the widely used ‘GSS trust’ question from the General Social Survey (GSS) does not predict either cooperation or trust, whereas the questions ‘GSS fair’ and ‘GSS help’ have weak predictive power for trusting behaviour but not for cooperative behaviour.     

DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY: ROBUST RULES IN MONETARY POLICY

We argue that in seeking to insure against model uncertainty, monetary policy makers are often ready to trade ex post performance for greater certainty in the outcome. They thus look for rules that although not optimal ex post, have certain properties that qualify them as robust. We apply first, Gul's approach of ‘disappointment’ aversion to describe policy makers' aversion to uncertainty and then define the properties the notion of ‘robustness’ entails. With these two tools we then link the desirability of such robust rules to the degree of policy makers' aversion to uncertainty. We thus show that provided such robust rules exist, a larger degree of disappointment aversion leads to a greater emphasis on robustness in policy implementation.     

Transparency and trust: the case of the European Central Bank

We examine how the transparency of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy affects the amount of trust that the citizens of the European Union have in this institution. We use nearly half a million individual responses from the European Commission’s Eurobarometer survey from 2000 to 2011 and estimate probit regressions with sample selection. We find that transparency exerts a non-linear effect on trust. Transparency increases trust, but only up to a certain point; too much transparency harms trust. This result is robust to controlling for a number of macroeconomic conditions, financial stability transparency measures, and economic and socio-demographic characteristics of respondents, including examining respondents in European Union countries that do not use the euro and addressing clustering issues.     

Links between trust in the ECB and its interest rate policy

We analyse determinants of trust in the European Central Bank (ECB). Our main finding is that when households have pessimistic expectations, aggressive cuts in interest rates have an adverse effect on their trust in central bank. This result is in accordance with the ‘lack-of-confidence shock’ hypothesis developed by Schmitt-Grohé and Uribe (2012) and in contrast with the ‘fundamental shock’ hypothesis which implies positive effects of aggressive cuts for trust in the ECB. The result is robust to various changes in the modelling approach.     

The Relationship between Behavioral and Attitudinal Trust: A Cross-cultural Study

We study the relationship between trust in an experiment and trust measured by means of popular survey items in different countries. Students from Chile, Colombia, India, Mexico and Sweden participate in a public goods game experiment and answer a set of standard attitudinal survey questions about trust. We find that behavioral trust and attitudinal trust significantly differ among countries. Behavioral trust is highest in Sweden, followed by Latin America, and lowest in India. Attitudinal trust is highest in Chile and Sweden, followed by India and Mexico, and lowest in Colombia. Further, the predictive power of survey items also differs among countries. Trust measured by survey items is significantly related to behavioral trust in some but not in all societies. No single survey item predicts actual trust across all countries. Plausible explanations of the inconsistent relationship between behavioral and attitudinal trust across countries are discussed.     

Inequality of opportunity and mass incidents: Evidence from China

This paper is one of the first to quantitatively analyse the relationship between inequality of opportunity and social stability in the context of China. Utilizing Census data of 2005 and the data of recorded mass incidents, we find a positive and robust correlation between inequality of opportunity and the outbreak of mass incidents. Amongst different types of mass incidents, inequality of opportunity displays the most significant correlation with those involving the government and the public. We also identify the lack of trust and higher unemployment as two potential channels through which inequality of opportunity exerts impacts on the happening of mass incidents.