Traps for the American and world economies. Apropos the Russian translation of Joseph E. Stiglitz’s The Roaring Nineties. Seeds of Destruction (Sovremennaya ekonomika i pravo, Moscow, 2005)

The appearance of a new book by the winner of the 2001 Nobel Prize in economics Joseph Stiglitz, The Roaring Nineties. Seeds of Destruction (Norton, New York, 2003), was a major event in world economics. The author is more than merely an eminent American scholar. He served in the Clinton Administration as chair of the President’s Council of Economic Advisors (1993–1997). At the World Bank, he served as Senior Vice President and Chief Economist (1997–January 2001), took part in economic policy making in the United States and around the world, and visited dozens of countries. The Russian translation of his work was made by G. G. Pirogov, Dr. Sci. (Polit.), who succeeded in bringing home to the reader the frenetic spirit of Stiglitz’s ideas and making in the shape of notes important addenda and elucidations that develop the book’s ideas.     

The euro crisis and crisis management: big lessons from a small island

Following an overview of the economics of the current financial crisis, and the phenomenon of the Irish ‘Celtic Tiger’, this article argues that the current Irish-crisis and purported Euro-crisis are specific examples of the failure of banks internationally to exercise appropriate prudential care when making loans to both individuals and governments. The policy issue is thus one of banking supervision rather than the exclusion, or otherwise, of crisis nations from the Euro-zone. Thus international banks which uncritically purchased bonds from reckless banks and profligate governments must share the adjustment costs associated with the current crisis.     

Aspirations,reference groups and the consumer

Summary In this article it has been possible to give an explanation for the existence of nonsymmetrical Slutsky matrices and nonhomogeneous demand functions. For this purpose a relation was made with a number of sociopsychological theories regarding reference groups and aspiration levels. Following the approach of Lakatos, a ‘hard core’ was chosen from within the traditional theory concerning the market behavior of consumers. In particular, this article used the maximization process. The newly constructed theory, based on this ‘core’, appeared to have more content than the traditional theory. With this result an important requirement of Lakatos' approach was met. I should like to thank Professor A. Bosman for his valuable advice and stimulating criticism. Thanks are also due to Mr. R.E. Vercruijsse who translated this paper and to Mr. R.A. Meyer who checked the mathematics. I also benefited from the comments of an anonymous referee.     

It is Time for National Action to Reach the Lisbon Goals

Summary During the second half of 2004, the Netherlands held the Presidency of the European Union. One of the conferences during the Presidency was titled ‘More people at work: Policies to activate Europe’s labour potential’. It was organised on October 25 and 26, 2004 at the Beurs van Berlage in Amsterdam. The conference focused on four particular areas: the reconciliation of work and family life, activating social security systems, mobility and training. As a starting point for the discussions during the conference, academics who are experts in the specific policy areas were asked to write a paper. In this special edition of ‘De economist’ you will find a presentation of three of their papers. In my contribution I will explain why I have put the focus of this conference on increasing labour supply and more in particular why these four themes have been chosen as relevant for Member States and the Union. As time has not stopped after the Netherlands’ Presidency I will also take this opportunity to show that the conclusions of the conference have become an integrated part of the revitalised Lisbon strategy.     

Is there an Anglo-American corporate governance model?

This paper questions the existence of an Anglo-American model of corporate governance and capitalism. Significant differences between the UK and US models of corporate governance are identified. The UK is a principles orientated system based more on voluntary codes operated on a ‘comply or explain’ basis, whilst the US system is more rules based and litigious. The UK focuses more on ex ante protection of ‘outside’ shareholders, whilst the US focuses on ex post protection of share traders. Institutional investors are expected to play a more prominent and wide ranging role in corporate governance in the UK than the US, though the evidence on their voting behaviour and wider ‘engagement’ activity is not readily available. The explosion of private equity led leveraged buy-out activity in the mid 2000s challenges the efficiency of both models and could be a harbinger of a ‘new capitalism’; relying more on incentive compatible remuneration packages and less on public disclosure and market discipline. Alternatively, it could simply be driven by the tax advantages currently enjoyed by debt over equity, the special deferred capital gains (‘carried interest’) tax treatment enjoyed by private equity, low (long as well as short term) real interest rates (‘cheap money’), and rising equity prices.     

Keynes's Approach to Money: An Assessment After Seventy Years

This paper first examines two approaches to money adopted by Keynes in the General Theory. The first is the more familiar ‘supply and demand’ equilibrium approach of Chapter 13 incorporated within conventional macroeconomics textbooks. Indeed, even Post Keynesians utilizing Keynes's ‘finance motive’ or the ‘horizontal’ money supply curve adopt similar methodology. The second approach of the General Theory is presented in Chapter 17, where Keynes drops ‘money supply and demand’ in favor of a liquidity preference approach to asset prices that offers a more satisfactory treatment of money's role in constraining effective demand. In the penultimate section, I return to Keynes's earlier work in the Treatise on Money as well as the early drafts of the General Theory to obtain a better understanding of the nature of money. I conclude with policy implications.     

How Influential is Economics?

Economists often claim that their discipline has a great influence on the economy. An analysis of the existing literature reveals, however, that little convincing empirical evidence exists. The two approaches used are subject to major shortcomings. The ‘Economics Production Function’ relating the input of economic ideas to economic outcomes, is faced with major estimation problems. The ‘Revealed Behaviour Approach’ of choosing to study economics is based on very restrictive assumptions. It is argued that the ‘Case Study Approach’ analysing specific policy instances constitutes a more promising avenue and should be undertaken to identify more general patterns of influence.     

Decomposition of GDP Growth in Some European Countries and the United States

Summary  The composition of economic growth can be analyzed in two different ways. In the ‘traditional method’ for the decomposition of GDP growth, total imports are deducted from exports. This approach underestimates the importance of exports for the growth in GDP, and overestimates the importance of domestic expenditure categories. In the alternative methodology proposed in this paper, imports are allocated to all expenditure categories. Although this ‘import-adjusted method’ is more complex than the ‘traditional method’, it has the considerable advantage that the contributions of the expenditure categories to GDP growth provide a better understanding of why GDP growth decelerates or accelerates. The methodology and data requirements for calculating the import content of final demand, and the implications for the decomposition of real GDP growth, are discussed. For six European countries and the United States, the paper shows that applying the alternative methodology provides rather a different economic story.      

Energy sanctions and the global economy: mandated vs unilateral sanctions

International Economics and Economic Policy - The world is witnessing an unprecedented episode of ‘economic warfare’, with more than 30% of global GDP (the G7’s share) pitched...     

Drug Demand – Initiation, Continuation and Quitting

Summary As illicit drug use inflicts considerable harm on users, non-using persons and society, there is an urgent need to better understand demand. Unlawfulness and addictiveness separate the consumption of narcotic drugs from the consumption of other commodities. This paper reviews economic approaches to the task of analysing drug consumption and discusses some recent contributions to the field. We find it useful to apply a threefold division to a user’s career: the initiation phase, the continuation phase and the quitting phase. First, however, we present an analysis of drug injectors’ heroin demand based on a large set of personal interviews (n = 2882) and illustrate some of the problems affecting empirical studies in this field. An estimated price elasticity of −0.77 and income elasticity of 0.56 suggest a high level of responsiveness to economic incentives among heavy drug users.     

Negative nominal interest rates: history and current proposals

Given the renewed interest in negative interest rates on base money—or equivalently ‘taxing money’—as a means for overcoming the zero bound on short-term nominal interest rates, this article reviews the history of negative nominal interest rates starting from the ‘taxing money’ proposal of Silvio Gesell up to current proposals that received popular attention in the wake of the financial crisis of 2007/2008. It is demonstrated that ‘taxing money’ proposals have a long intellectual history and that instead of being the conjecture of a monetary crank, they are a serious policy proposal. In a second step, the article points out that besides the more popular debate on a Gesell tax as a means to remove the zero bound on nominal interest rates, there is a class of neoclassical search models that advocates a negative tax on money as efficiency enhancing. This strand of the literature has so far been largely ignored by the policy debate on negative interest rates.     

How to Share Our Risks Efficiently? Principles for Optimal Social Insurance and Pension Provision

The efficient organisation of social insurance is an important problem for modern societies. The paper discusses evidence that shocks in labour income have largely persistent effects and analyses the implications of this observation for the optimal design of institutions for wage contracting, social security, and pensions. In an optimal contract, wages reflect variations in individual productivity for incentives reasons. However, the optimal contract insures workers against firm specific shocks. These can better be born by shareholders who can diversify risks on capital markets. Progressive income taxation provides further insurance. On top of that there is scope for additional insurance based on ‘verifiable’ information on unemployment and health conditions. As final form of ‘insurance’, the paper analyzes the role of self-insurance. Income shocks can be absorbed partially by precautionary saving. The individual’s saving plans for retirement and for precaution are, therefore, related issues. In an institutional setting with mandatory saving for retirement, an integration of disability and unemployment insurance on the one hand and the pension system on the other hand in a lifetime savings account allows for this interrelation. The paper analyzes how to deal with the uncertainty in the return on savings in the framework of a lifetime saving account.     

Surges and Sudden Stops of Capital Flows to Emerging Markets

A characteristic of many of the recent emerging market currency crises is a preceding surge in capital inflows and their reversals or ‘sudden stops’ during the crises. The empirical investigation of 38 emerging market economies between 1990 and 2003 reveals that a surge in capital inflows significantly increases the probability of a sudden stop. In addition, a surge accompanied by a high current account deficit or an appreciated real exchange rate is more likely to be associated with a sudden stop. The paper also finds that a surge that is dominated by private loans and portfolio flows rather than direct investment has a higher probability to end with a sudden stop.     

Preliminary Evidence on the Allocation of U.S. Army Deaths from Operation Iraqi Freedom

Political influence on the use of the nation's war-making resources is considered in this study. Given the ‘tax-like’ consequences arising from military fatalities, rational political agents may engage in behavior that minimizes the negative electoral consequences resulting from the fatalities. An empirical model of the state-by-state allocation of U.S. Army fatalities resulting from Operation Iraqi Freedom is developed and tested. The results suggest that political influence originating in the White House is present in the allocation of fatalities from the military action in Iraq, but that Congressional effects, if any, are much weaker. In particular, population-adjusted fatality rates are lower in states that were highly contested ‘battleground’ states rich in Electoral College votes in the 2004 Presidential election.     

Een dynamisch duopoliemodel II

Summary This paper is a continuation of ‘A Dynamic Duopoly Model’ (De Economist, 1970, pp. 458–490). According to the argument given in that paper, each duopolist changes his price twice in each period: first, there is an autonomous change, and, secondly, an induced one to neutralize the effect of the autonomous price change of the other duopolist. In the present paper, however, it is assumed that both duopolists change their prices only once a period. These ‘combined’ price changes are partly autonomous and partly induced; only the duopolist himself could tell in how far they are autonomous or induced. The steady state solution of this model corresponds with the endogenously determined duopoly solution of the earlier investigations.     

The evolution of the monetary system: Future possibilities

Summary This article discusses in the first place the functioning of floating exchange rates; the tendency to volatility and to unnecessary fluctuations is explained. The conclusion is drawn that the authorities of the main countries should cooperate in exchange rate policies that would bring about a greater stability in exchange rate movements. The article then sketches the historical development which brought us to the present multiple reserve currency system. The functioning of this system is analysed and some suggestions are presented for a more satisfactory management of this system by central banks, possibly along guidelines tobe developed in the IMF. Finally some possibilities are outlined to develop a stabler and better system in the future by creating a more attractive market-oriented SDR-substitution account in the IMF. This article is based on important parts of two speeches which I have given recently: ‘The changing monetary system; evolution and reform’ (20 years' anniversary Central Bank of Malaysia, Feb. 1979) ‘Managing reserves in the 1980s’ (Second International Monetary Conference, Philadelphia, Nov. 1980).     

Inter-group Disparities in the Distributional Analysis of Human Development: Concepts,Measurement, and Illustrative Applications

An important feature of most segmented societies is that deprivations and well-being achievements are unequally distributed across well-defined sub-groups of the population, when the latter is partitioned according to a variety of social or geographical categories, such as gender, caste, ethnicity, religion, occupation, sector of origin, or region of domicile. Group disparities are a matter of both instrumental interest in assessing the nature of a society (such as in terms of its propensity for conflict) and intrinsic concern in evaluations of a society’s record of ‘horizontal’ distributive justice. One aspect of a study of population heterogeneity would reside in the measurement of inter-group inequalities in the distribution of a society’s burdens and benefits. It is this aspect of the problem that is reviewed in the present paper. It is useful to note that group inequality can be categorized into different types (which are nevertheless mutually linked by certain commonalities of purpose and motivation), and a particularly instructive taxonomy is available in a recent paper by Arjun Jayadev and Sanjay Reddy (‘Inequalities and Identities’, which is available on the website of the Social Science Research Network, at ). The present paper also presents taxonomy of alternative approaches to reckoning group inequality, and discusses a number of real-valued measures of group disparity, mainly based on work in which this author has earlier engaged, by himself or in collaboration.     

Fiscal policy and direct crowding-out in a small open economy

This paper analyses the welfare effects of fiscal policy in a small open economy, where private and government consumption are substitutes in terms of private utility. The main findings are as follows: fiscal policy raises output, bringing it closer to its efficient level, but is not welfare-improving even though government spending directly affects private utility. The main reason for this is that the introduction of useful government spending implies a larger crowding-out effect on private consumption, when compared with the ‘pure waste’ case. Utility decreases since one unit of government consumption yields less utility than one unit of private consumption. In any case, the marginal rate of substitution between private and government consumption is a key parameter in governing the welfare effects of fiscal policy.

Microfoundations and Hicksian monetary theory

Summary John Hicks was the first economist to use a general equilibrium framework as a foundation for a dynamic macroeconomic analysis. A critical assessment of his work in this area is used to evaluate the contributions of the ‘micro-foundations’ discussions of the 1970’s. It is noted that Hicks’s starting point, the question of the role of money in a general equilibrium framework, is precisely where the current debate has arrived some fifty years later. This delay, and the foundations debate, were due in large part to Hicks’s own attempts to interpret Keynes’s theory in terms of his own, original framework. Suggestions and comments from P. Davidson, O. Steiger, and the editor, as well as the participants of seminars in the University of Bremen and the Economics Institute of the Faculty of Statistics of the University of Rome are acknowledged without implication of responsibility.     

Regional Economic Integration and the Location of Multinational Firms

A theoretical model of international location is applied to a process of regional economic integration in which a set of countries mutually removes barriers to trade and investment, thus overcoming the traditional ‘hub and spoke’ setup of regional agreements. The theoretical results are matched with actual trade and foreign investment data from a sample of some 4,200 multinational firms who have invested in Central and Eastern Europe over the 1990–1999 period. Controlling for the effects of the reduction in trade barriers through a proper specification of a gravity model, it is found that the conventional outcome of an agglomeration of economic activities in the centre of the integrating area does not necessarily hold. Multilateral regional integration agreements can act as an important dispersion force significantly driving the location of multinational firms. A panel probit econometric exercise confirms the findings. JEL no. F12, F15, F21