Technology gap and international trade: an evolutionary model

We propose a model of the international technology gap that focuses on two sources of self-reinforcing mechanisms in the industrial competition: (i) a positive feedback that runs from innovations to profits to R & D expenditures, and (ii) learning effects in R & D and in production. We find that, if the cost of labor is lower in the late-starter country, several dynamic paths are possible, including one in which the late-starter catches up and then reverses the technology gap. When international diffusion of technology is introduced, the system has a bifurcation structure: if technology diffusion is relatively slow, there are two steady-state levels of the technology gap, one in favor of each country; if diffusion is fast, there is a unique stable equilibrium gap in favor of the country that has an exogenous (Ricardian) cost advantage.     

Productivity growth from an international trade perspective

This paper presents a framework to assess the relative importance of three key sources of productivity growth that international trade research focuses on: (1) inter‐industry specialization; (2) intra‐industry reallocation of resources across heterogeneous firms; and (3) technological progress. We illustrate how to apply the framework by deciphering the productivity dynamics of the Swiss manufacturing industry. We find that intra‐industry reallocations are the most important source of growth in aggregate total factor productivity, spurred by the productivity growth of large, incumbent firms and the entry of new firms. Inter‐industry specialization and general technological progress, nevertheless, remain important supplementary sources of productivity growth.     

Agricultural trade liberalization under bilateralism: an international network perspective

Global negotiations in agricultural trade have been considered unsuccessful. Given this fact, the paper studies whether bilateral agreements, rather than global agreements, can lead to Agricultural Global Free Trade by means of decoupled and compensatory payments. For this purpose, the new advances of the international trade network literature have been adopted.     

Economic emergence: An evolutionary economic perspective

The standard neoclassical approach to economic theorising excludes, by definition, economic emergence and the related phenomenon of entrepreneurship. We explore how the most economic of human behaviours, entrepreneurship, came to be largely excluded from mainstream economic theory. In contrast, we report that evolutionary economists have acknowledged the importance of understanding emergence and we explore the advances that have been made in this regard. We go on to argue that evolutionary economics can make further progress by taking a more ‘naturalistic’ approach to economic evolution. This requires that economic analysis be fully embedded in complex economic system theory and that associated understandings as to how humans react to states of uncertainty be explicitly dealt with. We argue that ‘knowledge,’ because of the existence of uncertainty is, to a large degree ‘conjectural’ and, thus, is closely linked to our emotional states. Our economic behaviour is also influenced by the reality that we, and the systems that we create, are dissipative structures. Thus, we introduce the notions of ‘energy gradients’ and ‘knowledge gradients’ as essential concepts in understanding economic emergence and resultant economic growth.     

The rebound effect: An evolutionary perspective

The rebound effect presents a major flaw in to energy conservation policies that aim to reduce energy consumption through energy efficiency development. Economics and energy related disciplines have thus far developed tools to measure such a phenomenon. This paper attempts to explain this seeming paradox using a thermodynamic-evolutionary theoretical framework in addition to the traditional economic approach. We here propose that evolutionary systems, such as biological or even economic systems, may rearrange themselves in a more complex fashion under the pressure of an increasing flux of energy, driven by the higher conversion rate of greater efficiency. Higher complexity, due to a greater energy density rate, counteracts the positive effects of energy efficiency. We investigated this hypothesis in the context of the road freight transport system and the productive structure. The qualitative analysis in this paper, further substantiated by figures, provides a link between the dynamics of production patterns and the effect of efficiency in the light of the macro-economic effects of increased energy demand. The analysis departs from a rigorous investigation of the actual energy efficiency evolution in the road freight transport system to develop through a survey of the subsequent worldwide economic revolution in the production system. It is then shown how outsourcing, the key feature of globalization, can be identified as the main source of traffic density growth. Finally, four paradigms are used to stress how the shift in the production system must be considered a leap in structural complexity that consequently serves to increase the frequency of components’ interactions.     

Industrial structure,competitiveness, and trade

This paper examines the effect of sector-specific growth on real exchange rates, competitiveness, and the trade balance. Growth and accumulation in export- and import-competing industries exert their primary effect on the trade balance, while the direct effect of accumulation in non-tradables is on the real exchange rate. Thus, exchange-rate policies that are incompatible with non-tradables equilibrium are bound to fail. Furthermore, growth policies with strong biases toward tradables are often inferior to more balanced strategies, due to their adverse implications for real-exchange- rate movements and the trade balance.     

从发展中成员角度看国际贸易规则的不公平性

在全球贸易发展进程中,WTO和各成员都在为创造公平的贸易环境、制定合理的贸易规则而努力。但现行的WTO规则隐藏着实质的不公平,规则的制定过程、形式与内容以及执行结果都明显偏袒发达成员,而忽略了发展中成员的平等权利。WTO在维护公平贸易环境方面仍面临诸多挑战,消除规则的不公平性需要WTO和各成国的共同努力,发展中成员尤其要主动采取应对措施。本文从发展中成员的独特视角,分析了现行贸易规则的不公平性,为发展中成员争取正当的贸易与发展权益提供了建设性的思路,是一篇很有工作参考价值的文章。     

The state's role and position in international trade: A complex network perspective

Based on statistical physics and graph theory, the research paradigm of a complex network, which has sprung up in the last decade, provides us with new global perspective to discuss the topic of international trade. In this paper, we engage in the issue of countries' roles and positions in international trade using the latest complex network theories. On a mid-level structure, countries are classified into three communities that reflect the structure of the “core/periphery” using the weighted extremal optimisation algorithm and the coarse graining process. On a micro-level, countries' rankings are provided with the aid of network's node centralities, which presents world trade as a closed, imbalanced, diversified and multi-polar development. Further, we firstly introduce the improved bootstrap percolation to simulate cascading influences following the breaking down of bilateral trade relations. We find that the breakdown of EU's export relations can more easily form a cascading reaction, which would result in a global collapse of world trade. All the results highlight the important positions of the EU, USA and Japan in the international trade system, which plays a positive role in promoting the world economy.     

Habit persistence and the structure of international commodity trade

The paper analyzes the commodity structure of exports and imports of nine industrialized countries, using a dynamic version of the Linear Expenditure System. The hypothesis implied by this approach is that the structure of commodity trade can be explained by a combination of habit persistence and constant marginal expenditure shares. Application of the model to the trade composition of nine countries shows that there are considerable differences in the strength of habit persistence across countries and across commodity groups as well as between exports and imports. These are crucial for the explanation of the associated expenditure and price elasticities.     

Sectoral structure, heterogeneous plants, and international trade

I examine the impact of trade policy on manufacturing plant behavior by developing a methodology that addresses both plant heterogeneity and intersectoral resource reallocation. A plant-level microsimulation based upon the industry structure of Bernard et al. (2003) is linked to a multi-sector computable general equilibrium model. This linkage permits an analysis of plant-level behavior that encompasses the trade-induced changes in factor prices and consumption patterns. The methodology is applied in the examination of two counterfactual trade policy scenarios on the Chilean manufacturing sector. The results suggest that trade liberalization leads to a reallocation of output toward the most productive producers. This result is driven by two primary causes: (a) a reduction in the price of inputs that promotes the expansion of output by the most productive producers and (b) increased competition from overseas that drives the least productive producers out of the market.     

Wasted waste: An evolutionary perspective on industrial by-products

Every production process gives rise to unintended outputs. We argue that whether an output is desired or undesired, is not given per se, but depends on the economic circumstances which change over time. As a result, by-products of one industry, first perceived as non-marketable wastes, may become desired inputs into other production processes. By adopting an evolutionary perspective on economic dynamics, in particular by exploiting the concept of niche exclusion, we identify favorable circumstances for undesired outputs to become marketable. To cope with the pace and unpredictability of economic evolution, we argue for a flexible policy system which favors outcome- over process-oriented waste management policies and balances the responsibility between consumers and producers on the one side, and the society as a whole on the other side.     

Wasted waste: An evolutionary perspective on industrial by-products

Every production process gives rise to unintended outputs. We argue that whether an output is desired or undesired, is not given per se, but depends on the economic circumstances which change over time. As a result, by-products of one industry, first perceived as non-marketable wastes, may become desired inputs into other production processes. By adopting an evolutionary perspective on economic dynamics, in particular by exploiting the concept of niche exclusion, we identify favorable circumstances for undesired outputs to become marketable. To cope with the pace and unpredictability of economic evolution, we argue for a flexible policy system which favors outcome- over process-oriented waste management policies and balances the responsibility between consumers and producers on the one side, and the society as a whole on the other side.     

The governance of innovative firms: An evolutionary perspective

Corporate governance has been in the recent years one of the most debated issues in conventional economic approaches. Agency theory combined with financial indicators has particularly contributed to the development of shareholder value as a key concept in companies’ governance both at a theoretical and empirical level. We argue that an evolutionary perspective can be developed on the governance of innovative firms since (1) conventional economic approaches only consider a restricted part of this complex issue, and (2) this restricted vision applied in practice has driven the economic system into major coordination problems and turbulences. On the basis of empirical investigations into the telecommunications industry, and guided by a simple model of evolutionary game, we propose new principles of corporate governance centered upon managerial entrepreneurship and its role on innovation and industry dynamics. The outcome is a set of rules of conduct for the manager and the shareholder.     

An evolutionary perspective on health innovation systems

This paper elaborates on the general properties of medical innovation processes. It begins with a critical review of different perspectives and methods of investigation used in various streams of research that have previously analysed technical change in the health sector. After profiling and discussing their characteristics, the paper proposes an evolutionary approach to change in medicine constructed around the notion of a ‘Health Innovation System’. Health innovation, it is argued, consists of complex bundles of new medical technologies and clinical services emerging from a highly distributed competence base. Health Innovation Systems are driven by the combination of (1) institutionally-bound interactions among agents (‘gateways’ of innovation) and (2) history-dependent trajectories of change (‘pathways’ of innovation) whose developments emerge from and feed back into the structure of the system through organised transfers of knowledge between research and clinical practice. After drawing examples from recent empirical work on clinical research in specific disease areas, the paper concludes by identifying implications for further research.

Ancestry and international trade

This paper examines whether the relatedness of populations across the world shapes international trade flows. Using data on common ancestry for 172 countries covering more than 99% of global trade, we document that country pairs with weaker ancestral relationships are less likely to trade with each other (extensive margin) and, if they do trade, they exchange fewer goods and smaller volumes (intensive margin). The effect of ancestry is robust to a vast array of micro-geographic control variables and mitigated, yet still sizable and significant, when controlling for other measures of cultural distance as well as for current migrant stocks.     

An economic model of search and matching in international trade

A framework is developed to explain export participation among firms that produce differentiated products and may choose to exert costly effort to find foreign buyers. Export participation is linked to firm search costs, importer search costs, tariffs, the rate of contract breakdown, the distribution of bargaining power, and the degree of product differentiation. Propositions are derived that shed light on historic changes in export participation among firms while also generating hypotheses for further study. The model is applied to small U.S. food manufacturers and is shown to be able to explain changes in export participation among such firms.     

Destruction and settlement norms as determinants of conflict: An evolutionary perspective

This paper studies conflict in a simple bargaining framework using an evolutionary game-theoretic approach. Our findings suggest that a player does not always regard the winning probability as an acceptable settlement rule. He accepts a division according to winning probability when the destruction caused to him in conflict is more than a threshold, which in turn depends on cost of conflict to the opponent and the size of the population. Further, our analysis shows that the norms with positive weight to disagreement payoff are effective against conflict, and incentivize peace. Contrary to the findings of extant studies carried out in finite population evolutionary game setting, the settlement possibility set is identical under both ESS and Nash equilibrium in our model with settlement norms.     

Multinational firms, international trade and international telecommunications

The study analyses the determinants of international telephone, telex, telegram and leased lines communication between the United States and 46 countries. It focusses on the role of multinational firms, international trading firms and new information technologies within the framework of the theory of transaction costs.Results of the econometric estimates suggest that: (a) technological conditions of telecommunication infrastructure, i.e., international diffusion lags of new information technologies, play an important role in the explanation of international telephone and telex telecommunication flows but not in the demand for telegraph and leased lines, (b) multinational firms use international telecommunication to reduce the coordination costs and are strong customers of leased lines and telephones, but less so of telex and telegrams, (c) international trading firms exhibit less clear preferences in the use of the different media to reduce transaction costs.     

Global inequality and international trade

The paper analyses the effect of widespread trade liberalisationon global income inequality. The analysis of the trend in globalinequality during 1981–97, presented in the first partof the paper, shows that the apparent growth of income inequalityamong countries conceals a process of convergence. Some developingcountries achieved significantly faster economic growth thanthe advanced industrialised countries and, though small in number,they actually account for a majority of the population of thedeveloping world. Thus international inequality (i.e., the inequalityof distribution of per capita incomes among the world's population)in fact declined even though the inter-country income inequalityincreased. The analysis in the second part of the paper shows(i) that while improved trade performance did have a stimulatingeffect on growth performance of countries, trade liberalisationhad extremely varied effects on trade performance across countries,and (ii) that the distribution of benefits and costs of tradeliberalisation across countries has been such as to reduce internationalinequality without affecting inter-country inequality.