我国农村民间金融组织的优势及效应分析

金融抑制催生了民间金融。民间金融既是金融创新的源泉,也是金融制度变迁的初始状态。本文比较了民间金融相对正规金融的独特优势,分析了农村民间金融组织在经济发展过程中的正负效应,引导民间金融组织规范发展为农村经济发展做出更大的贡献。     

论我国农村民间金融的主要成因及对策

当前我国农村民间金融仍然在农村金融供给中发挥重要作用,文章探讨了我国农村民间金融的主要成因,并在此基础上提出今后对待我国农村民间金融一是要有正确的认识;二是要适度和因地制宜发展农村民间金融。     

制度经济学视角下农村民间金融组织的规范发展研究

本文从浙江等地经济飞速发展的原因分析中发现,内生性的民间金融组织对促进当地民营和中小企业的发展有很大的贡献。这在一定程度上映射出目前在我国仍不合法的地下钱庄、合会等民间金融组织有顽强生命力的原因——缓解农村的资金供求矛盾。笔者利用制度经济学的产权理论、交易成本理论等分析民间金融组织——诱致性制度变迁产生的现状及其发展问题。     

我国农村民间金融正规化的对策分析

作为正规金融的补充,农村民间金融为国民经济的发展提供了巨额的资金支持。本文界定了农村民间金融的内涵,深入分析了我国农村民间金融存在的问题。提出健全农村民间金融政策法规等若干对策。     

农村民间金融发展的SWTO分析

农村民间金融对于农村经济发展至关重要，文章运用SWTO分析方法，探讨农村民间金融发展的优势、劣势、机遇和威胁，并为我国农村的民间金融发展制定了相应战略。     

发展草根金融是新一轮金融改革的要义

当前有必要以发展草根金融为主要内容，掀起新一轮的金融改革。一般来说，人们将在民间社会（尤其是农村地区）存在的、经营范围和规模较小的一些金融组织视为草根金融，包括小额贷款公司、村镇银行和农民资金互助组织等，以及长期存在的民间借贷组织。     

我国农村民间金融发展中的问题

农村民间金融在我国农村有其存在的客观必然性,主要运行形式有:农村信用社(属于国有金融那部分除外)、农村合作基金,合会、民间借贷、私人钱庄、民间集资和小额信贷等。我国农村民间金融发展中存在不少问题,比如民间借贷的利率失控．农村民间金融潜伏着金融风险、容易产生经济纠纷、给国家宏观调控带来困难以及还难以得到法律的保护等。     

规范民间金融 加强农村金融生态环境建设的建议

一、规范民间金融与加强农村金融生态环境建设的关系 金融生态理论提出的主要诱因是当前我国金融生态环境恶化,金融生态系统失衡。表现为：金融与经济发展缺乏协调性;金融内部发展严重不均衡;大量引进外资,而国内金融资源却严重的闲置;一再强调发展农业,农村金融资源却存在枯竭的危险等。这些生态问题也体现出正规金融体系远不能满足农村经济发展的要求,这样随着市场的发展,就会出现一支新的金融体系,一些新的金融组织,或一些新的金融形式。且农村民间金融能够在夹缝中生存下来,说明它本身就有市场。     

促进民间金融健康发展的战略思考

民间金融是相对于国有金融而言的,即非国有金融,可以细分为体制内金融和体制外金融两部分。体制内民间金融包括农村信用合作社、城市信用合作社、城市商业银行和农村合作基金会等。体制外民间金融则包括民间借贷、合会、私人钱庄、集资和典当行等多种金融组织和形式。党的十七大指     

新农村建设中农村民间金融监管的制度建设

本文先介绍新农村建设中农村民间金融的现状,接着分析农村民间金融对新农村建设的积极影响和消极影响,最后提出新农村建设中农村民间金融的监管制度建设思路。希望能够对有关的工作人员有所帮助,进而更好地推动农村民间金融监管工作。     

A time-varying copula approach for constructing a daily financial systemic stress index

This paper develops a financial systemic stress index (FSSI) for the US financial market. We propose a time-varying copula method to model the dependence structure among financial sectors in order to build a correlated financial stress model that can signal systemic financial risks. The copula method is preferable to the traditional approach, enabling the modeling of non-linear correlations. Our analyses show that the dependencies across banking, security, and forex markets are best modeled by Archimedian copulas. Finally, we conduct a Markov Switching Autoregressive (MS-AR) model for FSSI and identify high financial stress episodes taking place in 2008–2009, 2011 and 2020.     

Nonlinearity in the effects of financial development and financial structure on unemployment

The positive role of the financial sector in promoting economic growth has been well established among academics and practitioners since the early 1990s. However, more recently, there has been increasing evidence pointing to a vanishing, and even negative, effect of financial sectors at high levels of financial depth, particularly since the global financial crisis of 2007?2009. Too much finance could hurt growth. The paper shifts the focus towards labor market outcomes by examining whether too much finance also hurts unemployment. Using a dynamic simultaneous model via system GMM estimation and a panel of 97 OECD and non-OECD countries for the period 1991–2015, we find that the answer depends on the type of finance and the extent of a country’s labor market flexibility. Specifically, (i) too much financial development hurts unemployment for countries with more rigid labor markets; (ii) too bank-centered or too little market-oriented financial systems worsen unemployment, particularly for countries with more flexible labor markets; and (iii) too much credit to private enterprises deteriorates unemployment in countries with more rigid labor markets, whereas too little credit to households worsens unemployment in countries with more flexible labor markets. Evidence also shows that these unemployment consequences possibly run through investment and entrepreneurship channels.     

A network based fintech inclusion platform

The paper evaluates, from a sustainable finance viewpoint, a machine learning model implemented in a fintech platform, whose aim is to assign credit ratings. The aim of the model is to learn from both micro economic data and macro economic trends the credit rating of companies that ask for credit. We show that the proposed model is able to reward the companies that have better financial performances with better ratings and, therefore, a higher probability/lower cost of obtaining credit. At the same time, the model correctly takes into account the overall evolution of the economy, favoring financial inclusion for the more penalized economic sectors, particularly during crisis times. The model, its application to credit rating, and its evaluation, are illustrated with reference to more than 100,000 European companies before and during the COVID-19 pandemic crisis. The results shows that, while the impact of the financial variables does not change over time, and particularly during the pandemic, the impact of sectors changes considerably, favoring financial inclusion and resilience.     

Spillovers among CDS indexes in the US financial sector

By employing the robust cross-correlation function approach proposed by Hong (2001), and conducting pre-tests for structural breaks in the variances as well as removing the causality-in-mean effects in the causality-in-variance tests, we investigate volatility and mean transmissions between the credit default swaps (CDS) indexes of three US financial sectors. We use daily series on five-year banking, insurance, and financial services sector CDS indexes at the sector level from January 2004 to December 2011. We find evidence of significant causality-in-mean effects running from the banking sector to the insurance and financial services sector CDS indexes and from the financial services to the insurance sector CDS indexes, suggesting the leading role of the banking and financial services sectors in terms of price discovery. Moreover, we find significant causality-in-variance effects from the financial services sector CDS index to that of the banking sector, implying the existence of information transmission and contagion from the former, the least regulated of the three. The implications of these findings on traders and policymakers are also provided.     

Misallocation,informality, and human capital: Understanding the role of institutions

The aim of this paper is to quantify the role of formal-sector institutions in shaping the demand for human capital and the level of informality. We propose a firm dynamics model where firms face capital market imperfections and costs of operating in the formal sector. Formal firms have a larger set of production opportunities and the ability to employ skilled workers, but informal firms can avoid the costs of formalization. These firm-level distortions give rise to endogenous formal and informal sectors and, more importantly, affect the demand for skilled workers. The model predicts that countries with a low degree of debt enforcement and high costs of formalization are characterized by relatively lower stocks of skilled workers, larger informal sectors, low allocative efficiency, and measured TFP. Moreover, we find that the interaction between entry costs and financial frictions (as opposed to the sum of their individual effects) is the main driver of these differences. This complementarity effect derives from the introduction of skilled workers, which prevents firms from substituting labor for capital and in turn moves them closer to the financial constraint.     

中国现代金融体系的结构、影响及前景

在经济快速增长的背景下,中国已逐步形成一个以中央银行为核心、商业银行为主体,各种银行和非银行金融机构分工协作的现代国家金融体系。运用计量分析方法和典型相关分析,研究中国现代金融体系的社会融资结构、证券市场结构以及影子银行结构,测度国家现代金融体系对实体经济各行业的影响程度。研究表明:金融机构贷款与债券市场对相关行业的促进具有一定协同作用,股票市场对第一、二产业的发展影响较小,金融业对第三产业的促进作用最大。根据目前金融体系的结构、影响,可以预见未来中国现代金融体系的发展前景将主要体现在市场化、网络化以及国际化三个方面。     

论财务治理相关者与财务舞弊

公司财务治理相关者与财务舞弊之间存在着密切关系。本文首先分析管理层、董事会、监事会、注册会计师等公司财务治理相关者与财务舞弊的关系,然后提出通过改变财务信息的生成方式、完善董事会结构、强化监事会功能、变革审计收费体制等措施来防范财务舞弊。     

Financial development,portfolio investments and the real economy in Africa

According to the conservative view, capital flows enhance economic growth. Focussing on Africa’s real economy, this study investigates the linkage between portfolio investments and real sector growth, and whether financial sector development strengthens this association. The study covers 30 countries over the period 1990–2017. We adopt the Lewbel instrumental variable general method of moments (IV-GMM) two-step robust estimator, which relies on heteroscedasticity for identification, while dealing with instrument insufficiency, unavailability, endogeneity and omitted variable bias. We found that portfolio equity has no growth impact on Africa’s real sector. Debt flows deter the growth of the overall real sector as well as the manufacturing and industrial sectors, but have no impact on agriculture and service growth. We found that financial development does strengthen the positive association between capital flows and economic growth, but this is dependent on the type of sector and portfolio investment, as well as on the degree of financial development. We control for known determinants of economic growth.     

基于现金流量指标的财务危机预警模型分析

由于企业生产经营得以持续的基本条件是获得足够的现金流量,本文以现金流为主线,探讨如何准确把握现金流量指标来进行财务预警。在指标的选取上采用了时差相关分析法,筛选出财务预警所需的先行或一致性指标。最后以上市公司的财务报表为数据来源进行实证研究,证明了现金流量指标确有超前的财务危机预警功能。     

Financial Social Accounting Matrix: a useful tool for understanding the macro-financial linkages of an economy

This article extends the traditional methodology of social accounting by building a Financial Social Accounting Matrix (FSAM) and a corresponding Satellite Asset–Liability Matrix for Spain. In so doing, the difficulties that typically arise in consolidating data from the National Bureau of Statistics (INE) and the Bank of Spain (BdE) were overcome. This is the first FSAM for the Spanish economy and might provide new tools to deepen the analysis of the financial sector and of the determinants of financial vulnerability associated with interactions with other sectors of the economy. As a novel contribution to the literature, this paper incorporated a structural path analysis grounded in the FSAM multiplier to identify the principal paths through which financial shocks are transmitted.