Openness,inequality and poverty: Endowments matter

Using tariffs as a measure of openness, this paper finds consistent evidence that the conditional effects of trade liberalization on inequality are correlated with relative factor endowments. Trade liberalization, measured by changes in tariff revenues, is associated with increases in inequality in countries well-endowed with highly skilled workers and capital or with workers that have very low education levels. Similar, although less robust, results are also obtained when decile data are used instead of the usual Gini coefficients. Taken together, the results are strongly supportive of the factor-proportions theory of trade and suggest that trade liberalization in poor countries where the share of the labor force with little education is high raises inequality. Simulation results also suggest that relatively small changes in inequality as measured by aggregate measures of inequality, like the Gini coefficient, are magnified when estimates are carried out using decile data.     

Bifurcations in the evolutionary approach to multilateralizing trade policy

The Doha Round on multilateral trade liberalization, originally intended to better integrate developing countries into the world economy, has been largely considered a failure. With the Doha outcome falling short of expectations, North–South trade remains underdeveloped. Embedding the political economy and the resulting importance of reciprocating trade liberalization in an evolutionary model along Axelrod–Rapoport lines indicates that factor endowments are crucial in triggering trade policies. Their pivotal nature gives rise to bifurcations, thereby tilting policies towards or away from liberalization trajectories. The theoretical insights are reflected in an empirical analysis, thus strengthening the case for a variable-geometry approach.     

Export diversification: How much does the choice of the trading partner matter?

This paper studies how a country's export diversification varies across destination markets. It develops an extension of the Romalis (2004) model which yields two testable predictions. According to the first, exports between similarly endowed countries (“South–South” and “North–North”) are more diversified than exports between differently endowed countries (“South–North” and “North–South”). The second implication is that, for given countries' production patterns, low bilateral trade costs lead to greater export diversification. These predictions find empirical support in a panel of 102 trade partners and 4998 HS-6 industries over the period 1995–2007. Results show that similarities between trading partners in physical capital, land and human capital endowments per worker are associated with more diversified bilateral exports. Exports are also more diversified when bilateral trade costs are relatively low.     

Bilateralism, multilateralism, and the quest for global free trade

We develop an equilibrium theory of trade agreements in which both the degree and the nature (bilateral or multilateral) of trade liberalization are endogenously determined. To determine whether and how bilateralism matters, we also analyze a scenario where countries pursue trade liberalization on only a multilateral basis. We find that when countries have asymmetric endowments or when governments value producer interests more than tariff revenue and consumer surplus, there exist circumstances where global free trade is a stable equilibrium only if countries are free to pursue bilateral trade agreements. By contrast, under symmetry, both bilateralism and multilateralism yield global free trade.     

Accounting for quality differences in human capital and foreign direct investment

This paper empirically investigates how cross-country differences in the quality of human capital, as they are captured by the conventional measures of international test score differences, influences the patterns of foreign direct investment. Using panel data covering 32 countries during the period between 1985 and 2004, this paper finds that a host country's quality of educational attainment plays an independent role in attracting foreign direct investment. In particular, the quality of human capital influences horizontal foreign direct investment, even after accounting for the roles of skill and factor endowments, trade costs, investment costs, and country-size and income effects.     

Trade Costs and Current Accounts

Are trade cost reductions a plausible explanation for growing global current account imbalances? I advocate that changes in trade costs affect trade and production structures, which is likely to affect national savings and investment. Explicitly adding trade costs à la Markusen and Venables into Jin's framework, this augmented model predicts that trade cost reductions affect the current account through changes in the industrial structure. Empirical evidence confirms that the interaction of trade costs and capital intensity drives current account balances. I also provide evidence that the response of current accounts to changes in trade costs depends on the capital intensity of production and on the depth of regional agreements on trade and factor mobility. Aside from the direct effect generally emphasised in standard macro‐level analysis, changes in production patterns could therefore be an additional channel of impact of regional integration on current accounts.     

Credit constraints, equity market liberalizations and international trade

This paper provides evidence that credit constraints are an important determinant of international trade flows. I exploit shocks to the availability of external finance and examine the impact of equity market liberalizations on the export behavior of 91 countries in the 1980-1997 period. I show that liberalizations increase exports disproportionately more in financially vulnerable sectors that require more outside finance or employ fewer collateralizable assets. This result is not driven by cross-country differences in factor endowments and is independent of simultaneous trade policy reforms. Moreover, it obtains with equal strength in the full panel of countries as well as in both panel and event-study analyses of countries which removed capital controls during the sample period. Finally, the effects of liberalizations are more pronounced in economies with initially less active stock markets, indicating that foreign equity flows may substitute for an underdeveloped domestic financial system. Similarly, opening equity markets has a greater impact in the presence of higher trade costs caused by restrictive trade policies.     

我国对外直接投资的区位选择——基于投资动机的视角

从对外直接投资动机的视角,采用54国2003-2006年的面板数据,在对样本国聚类的基础上考察了我国对外直接投资区位选择的影响因素。发现在控制了东道国治理基础和双边贸易量后,对我国直接投资而言,发达国家的区位优势在于较高的科技水平,而发展中国家则在于丰富的矿产能源禀赋或潜在的国内市场。同时,发达国家的市场对我国直接投资并不具有吸引力,而在对一些资源丰富的发展中国家进行投资时市场因素的作用也不明显。     

Trade Liberalization,Nature of Mergers and Employment

This paper investigates the roles of comparative advantage and market size in the international location of manufacturing production. Building on the conventional Helpman and Krugman (1985) general equilibrium framework, our analysis extends the present literature by incorporating both effects in the same model, while allowing trade costs to vary almost continuously from autarky to free trade. The main result of our exercise is that market size effects offset comparative advantage if countries have similar factor proportions. A large country with a slight comparative disadvantage in manufacturing production may thus be a net exporter of manufactures. A small country with the same comparative disadvantage would be a net importer of manufactures. When countries are very dissimilar in their relative factor endowments, land-abundant countries specialize in the production of food, irrespective of market size, if manufactures are a labour-intensive sector. Labour-rich countries of any size are manufacture cores. However, land-abundant countries with large markets can sustain a domestic manufacturing industry until trade costs are very low, and in some cases only specialize in agriculture at free trade.     

The role of endowments,technology and size in international trade: new evidence from product-level data

Using product-level trade data, we empirically investigate the export patterns of more than 150 countries in their exports to the USA, Brazil, India, and Japan. We document strong evidence that exporters specialize according to their relative factor endowments, technology, and economic size. More developed, capital abundant countries are found to export products of higher unit values and a wider range of products to developed, emerging and developing markets. More developed, economically larger, and technologically advanced countries are also the major exporters of new products, spanning a wide range of product categories with high unit values. Our findings provide important insights into the macro phenomenon that a large proportion of the global trade takes place among developed economies, and that the latter are also major exporters to developing markets.     

The trade structure effects of endogenous regional trade agreements

This paper formulates an empirical model to estimate the impact of endogenous new regional trade agreement (RTA) membership on trade structure. The likelihood of new RTA membership is influenced by economic fundamentals such as country size, factor endowments, and trade and investment costs. In a sample of country-pairs covering mainly the OECD economies we find a particularly strong effect of endogenous RTAs on intra-industry trade in a difference-in-difference analysis based on matching techniques. The associated trade volume effects are similar to the ones found in previous research on the effects of endogenous RTAs. Overall, this indicates that RTA membership might reduce inter-industry trade not only in relative but also in absolute terms and that the trade volume effect is due to the associated growth in trade within industries.     

Foreign entry and domestic welfare: lessons for developing countries

This paper examines the effects of foreign entry, in the form of either imports or direct foreign investment, into an oligopolistic market. Incorporating a possible divergence between private and social costs, it first derives simple conditions under which foreign entry reduces welfare relative to autarky. Then, in a multi-firm Cournot model with linear demand and international cost asymmetries, it shows that foreign entry reduces welfare unless it captures a very large share of the home market. However, it also shows that an optimal tariff can prevent this welfare decline. Some suggestive empirical evidence and extensions to differentiated products and to merger analysis are offered. The paper concludes with implications for trade and investment liberalization, as well as for domestic and international competition policy.     

Determinants of Intra-GCC Food Trade

Using panel data for six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries from 1995–2014, we assess the impacts of several major economic variables on intra-GCC food exports, and on GCC food exports to the world. The GCC customs union had minimal impact on intra-GCC food exports, but occasioned a significant reduction in GCC food exports. Unlike GCC food exports, intra-GCC food exports occurred among countries with similar relative factor endowments, in agreement with the Linder Hypothesis. Rising incomes and exchange rates played significant roles in both intra-GCC food exports and GCC food exports, while distance has lost its once-dominant role.     

A comparison of FDI determinants in China and India

This study explores foreign direct investment (FDI) determinants in China and India and fills the gap in the literature by providing a comprehensive empirical comparison analysis. Two panel data sets and two statistical models are employed to identify the determinants of FDI inflows from home countries worldwide to the two host countries by considering both home and host countries' characteristics. The empirical results show some interesting similarities and differences between the two countries. Market growth, imports, labor costs, and country political risk/policy liberalization are the determinants for both countries. However, exports, market size, and borrowing costs are important to China's FDI, while geographical and cultural distance factors are important to India's FDI. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Endogenous trade policy through majority voting: an empirical investigation

The median-voter approach to trade policy determination (within a Heckscher-Ohlin framework) as in Mayer [Am. Econ. Rev. 74(5) (1984) 970] predicts that an increase in inequality, holding constant the economy’s overall relative endowments, raises trade barriers in capital-abundant economies and lowers them in capital-scarce economies. We find support for this prediction using cross-country data on inequality, capital-abundance and diverse measures of protection. We perform certain robustness checks that include controlling for the effects of political rights and schooling as well as using alternative datasets on factor endowments.     

Geographical disadvantage: a Heckscher-Ohlin-von Thünen model of international specialisation

We analyse the trade and production patterns of countries located at varying distances from an economic centre. Exports and imports of final and intermediate goods bear transport costs which increase with distance. We show how production and trade depend on factor endowments and factor intensities, and also on countries’ locations and the transport intensities of different goods. Countries divide into zones with different trade patterns, some export oriented and others import substituting. We study the implications of distance for factor prices and real incomes, the effects of changes in transport costs, and the locational choice of new activities.     

《SPS协定》对中国农产品出口效应及法律对策研究

随着世界贸易自由化进程的不断加快,非关税壁垒特别是技术性贸易壁垒成为各国新的贸易屏障,许多国家通过制定严苛的卫生及植物卫生措施限制进口,以保护国内市场。《SPS协定》对中国农产品出口造成了正、负两方面效应,从中分析中国农产品出口的现状及存在问题,法律上应补充、完善中国的标准立法体系、加强技术法规制定、建立卫生与植物卫生措施的预警机制、建立相关的法律协助机构,同时应利用《SPS协定》等应对措施,以便趋利避害促进中国农产品出口贸易的长效发展。     

产业内贸易理论演进

本文结合产业内贸易的实践与内涵,对产业内贸易理论的发展脉络进行了梳理。本文认为,传统的产业内贸易理论的研究对象是基于各国,特别是发达国家与发展中国家的要素比较优势所生产的最终产品。而随着20世纪90年代国际直接投资的深入发展,产业内贸易理论的研究对象深化为中间产品,跨国公司实现了其主导下的全球资源在各生产阶段或生产工序中的最优配置,其中中国以加工贸易的模式参与了全球竞争,中国在国际贸易中的获利发生了根本变化。     

Migration and servicification: Do immigrant employees spur firm exports of services?

Services play an increasingly important role in production, employment and international trade but are subject to substantially higher trade costs relative to manufactured goods. Knowledge of how these trade costs can be mitigated is important for facilitating trade of services. In this paper, we analyse the role of immigrant employees as facilitators of firm exports of services, a role that remains largely unexamined. We bridge the gap in existing research by drawing on new data for nearly 30,000 Swedish firms during the period 1998–2007 within a heterogeneous firm framework. The results have important policy implications. As the multilateral approach to facilitating trade is challenged and more countries are imposing measures to restrict the cross‐country mobility of people, policymakers may need to find new ways to promote exports of services. Our results indicate that immigrant employees spur firms' export of services activities: hiring one additional foreign‐born worker can increase services exports by approximately 2.5 per cent, on average, with a stronger effect found for skilled and newly arrived immigrants. Therefore, policymakers could leverage the findings of this study to implement initiatives that utilise high‐skilled immigrants to promote services exports.     

On the similarity of country endowments

We study the production side of the Heckscher-Ohlin model empirically. The evidence we present suggests that the endowments of countries around the world are too dissimilar for all countries to be able to produce the same set of goods. In contrast, the endowments of the rich OECD countries are sufficiently similar, so that these countries do not have to specialize in different subsets of goods. Our findings have implications for a variety of issues ranging from the trade and wages debate to economic development. Our analysis relies on the lens condition of Deardorff [Journal of International Economics 36 (1994) 167-175] that compares country endowments with sectoral factor inputs. We mainly focus on the production factors capital and labor. We test the robustness of the results with different data sets and with corrections for international differences in productivity and human capital. We confirm the similarity of the developed OECD countries with skilled and unskilled labor data. We also investigate in detail the implications of measurement error and sectoral aggregation.