碳关税征收对双边贸易的预期影响——基于中美两个碳经济大国的微观分析方法

文章用微观经济分析方法,基于中美两个碳经济大国的视角分析了碳关税的征收对双边贸易的预期影响。分析结果为:美国征收碳关税,短期内会由于美国进口需求减少和其他不被施加碳关税国家的价格优势导致中国出口量下降;长期中出口商需要提高价格来补偿技术投入的支出,国际价格上涨将进一步导致需求降低,贸易量减少;同时碳关税征收将导致出口国贸易条件恶化,社会福利损失;而进口国可能由于贸易条件的改善在短期内获得收益。     

Market Structure and Market Access

We explore an issue at the nexus of domestic competition policy and international trade, the interaction between goods trade and market power in domestic trade and distribution sectors. We examine the effect of variations in conditions of domestic competition in services on trade volumes in goods in the cases of both linear and nonlinear import demand, including standard form CES‐based gravity models of bilateral trade flows. Theory suggests a set of linkages between service‐sector pricing and goods trade supported by econometrics involving imports of 22 OECD countries vis‐a‐vis 69 exporters. Competition in distribution services affects the volume of trade in goods. Additionally, because of interaction between tariffs and pricing, the market structure of the domestic service sector becomes increasingly important as tariffs are reduced. Indeed, depending on the degree of competition, market access concessions on tariffs may be effectively undone in some cases by changes in margins. For exporters, we find that service competition in destination markets matters most for exporters from smaller, poorer countries. Our results also suggest that while negotiated agreements leading to cross‐border services liberalisation may boost goods trade as well, they may also lead to a fall in goods trade when such liberalisation involves FDI leading to increased service sector concentration.     

Trade Liberalization and the Wage Skill Premium: Evidence from Indonesia

In this paper, we analyze the effect of reducing import tariffs on intermediate inputs and final goods on the wage skill premium within firms in Indonesia – a country with a high share of unskilled workers. We present a new finding that reducing input tariffs reduces the wage skill premium within firms that import their intermediate inputs. However, we do not find significant effects from reducing tariffs on final goods on the wage skill premium within firms.     

A Note on Firm Age and the Margins of Exports: First Evidence from Germany

This article uses a new tailor-made data set to empirically investigate the link between firm age and the extensive and intensive margins of exports for the first time for Germany. Results turn out to be fully in line with theoretical considerations. Older firms are more often exporters, export more and more different goods to more different destination countries, and export to more distant destination markets.     

Time consistent export quotas in an oligopolistic world market

We investigate the strategic behavior between exporting countries that face endogenous terms of trade on the world market. In a non-cooperative setting, if production decisions occur before consumption decisions, the ex-ante optimal export quota is not time consistent as the ex-post elasticity of the residual foreign import demand curve is lower than the ex-ante elasticity. However, we show that the exporters’ inability to irrevocably commit to their quota may be welfare superior to the precommitment solution. If exporters can sell forward a proportion of their exports before production decisions are made, they will do so even though, in equilibrium, it may decrease welfare compared to a situation in which forward markets do not exist. Moreover, the equilibrium with forward markets is welfare inferior to the commitment equilibrium for exporters.     

Relationship Between Export Strategy Variables and Export Performance for Brazil-Based Manufacturers

The growth of exports originating from Brazil has garnered substantial interest, much of which has focused upon the changing composition of the exports. In terms of specific export-oriented variables that could be linked with export growth, several authors have speculated conceptual relationships. However, very few studies have attempted to empirically identify hypothesized associations. In this investigation, responses were gathered from export managers of thirty-one manufacturing firms based in Brazil. An analysis of the results indicated that high-performing exporters produced standardized goods, trained their managers in international business, and reliably met delivery dates.     

International trade in services: A portrait of importers and exporters

We provide a novel set of stylized facts on firms engaging in international trade in services, using unique data on firm-level exports and imports from the world's second largest services exporter, the United Kingdom (UK). We show that only a fraction of UK firms engage in international trade in services, that trade participation varies widely across industries and that service traders are different from non-traders in terms of size, productivity and other firm characteristics. We also provide detailed evidence on the trading patterns of service exporters and importers, such as the number of markets served, the value of exports and imports per market and the share of individual markets in overall sales. We interpret these facts in the light of existing theories of international trade in services and goods. Our results demonstrate that firm-level heterogeneity is a key feature of services trade. Also, we find many similarities between services and goods trade at the firm level and conclude that existing heterogeneous firm models for goods trade will be a good starting point for explaining trade in services as well.     

Competitive pressure,innovation and trade protection: Evidence from US patent data

Recent theoretical models have suggested that the relationship between competition and innovation may best be characterised as an inverted‐U shape: firms in industries with low levels of competition are more likely to innovate in the wake of increased competition as they attempt to escape competition, while those in highly competitive industries will decrease innovation in the wake of increased competition as the profit incentive to innovate dissipates. Results from other studies have found positive as well as negative relationships between innovation and competition. In a parallel literature, trade economists have produced conflicting results regarding the impact of trade liberalisation on innovation. One stream of research has shown that increased access to imported intermediate goods increases productivity, suggesting a positive relationship between imports and innovation. Others have hypothesised that firms may use the technology embodied in intermediate inputs as a substitute for domestic innovation. In this paper, we merge these divergent literatures and investigate whether innovation, as measured by the production of patents by US manufacturers, has been impacted by market competition and tariff reductions. Our empirical findings indicate that insulation from imports in the form of higher tariffs on final goods was associated with innovation until the late 1980s, while falling tariffs on intermediate goods appear to have facilitated innovation during the 1990s. We also find evidence of the inverted U‐shaped relationship between market competition and innovation.     

出口退税对企业国际竞争力的影响分析

本文的抽样调查和博弈模型表明,我国对低附加值产品的出口退税在很大程度上侵蚀了出口商品的国际竞争力。原因在于,出口退税已经成为低附加值产品出口的外贸企业的主要利润来源,因此外贸企业没有对出口商品进行升级换代的动力,使出口商品长期沦落于低附加值、劳动密集型为主的商品结构当中。我国出口退税制度的设计应针对不同产品类型的行业实施不同的退税率,才能在制度上保证出口企业具有提高自主创新能力的内在动力,继而提高其外贸竞争力。     

Welfare implications of trade liberalization and fiscal reform: A quantitative experiment

This paper studies the welfare implications of revenue-neutral trade liberalization and fiscal reform programs for developing economies using a multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy. We analyze how different combinations of tariffs – on imported consumption goods, intermediate inputs, and capital goods – and taxes – on consumption, labor income and capital income – affect the transitional and long-run welfare. We report three main findings. First, trade liberalization programs financed by consumption and labor income taxes tend to result in substantial welfare gains, but financing the lost tariff revenue through capital income taxes can have an adverse impact on welfare. Second, a significant fraction of welfare changes is due to transitional effects stemming from the allocation of resources in response to changes in tariffs and taxes. Third, trade liberalization and fiscal reform programs often translate into much larger welfare gains in countries that are more open to international financial markets.     

Low-wage country competition and the quality content of high-wage country exports

We study how competition from low-wage countries in international markets affects the quality content of high-wage country exports. We focus on aggregate quality changes driven by a reallocation of sales from low- to high-quality exporters, within industries. Two alternative indicators are used on firm-level data to measure quality changes. Both lead to similar conclusions. Namely, we show that the mean quality of French exports increased by 10–15% between 1995 and 2005. Quality improvement is significantly more pronounced in markets in which competition from low-wage countries has increased the most. This holds true for various specifications including two different identification strategies. The results are consistent with competition from low-wage countries leading developed countries to specialize within industries in the production of higher quality goods.     

Import Churning and Export Performance of Multi‐product Firms

This paper analyses the impact of churning in the imported varieties of capital and intermediate inputs on firm export scope and productivity. Using detailed data on imports and exports at the firm‐product‐market level, we document substantial churning in both imports and exports for Slovenian manufacturing firms in the period 1994–2008. On average, a firm changes about one‐quarter of imported and exported product‐markets every year, while gross churning in terms of added and dropped product‐markets is almost three times higher. A substantial share of this product churning is due to simultaneous imports and exports of firms in identical varieties within the same CN‐8 product code (so called pass‐on‐trade). We find that churning in imported varieties is far more important than reduction in tariffs or declines in import prices for firms’ productivity growth and increased export product scope. We also find gross churning has a bigger impact on firm productivity improvements by a factor of more than 10 in comparison with net churning. Both adding and dropping of imported input varieties thus seem to be of utmost importance for firms aiming to optimise their input mix towards their most valuable inputs. These effects are further enhanced when excluding simultaneous trade in identical varieties, suggesting that pass‐on‐trade has less favourable effects on firms’ long‐run performance than regular trade.     

The role of imports for exporter performance in Peru

Using highly disaggregated firm‐level customs data for imports and exports in Peru over the 2000–12 period, we explore the relationship between imports of intermediate inputs and firm export performance. The evidence shows that greater use, variety and quality of imported intermediate inputs are significantly correlated with higher export levels and growth, greater market diversification and higher export quality at the firm level, even after controlling for unobserved firm heterogeneity. Exporter–importers exposed to higher tariffs, and non‐tariff measures import less in total and exhibit lower import variety, whereas those using an advance customs clearance procedure designed to facilitate imports exhibit higher imports and a more diversified bundle of inputs.     

基于局部均衡视角的碳关税壁垒对我国出口影响的实证分析

碳关税具有名义上的合理性、对象上的歧视性、形式上的合法性和主体的广泛性等特征。碳关税对我国出口的冲击主要源于出口产品生产过程中碳排放强度,由局部均衡分析知,碳关税不但会对我国工业产品这个行业造成影响,还会对我国整体福利造成影响。我国政府应在国内开征碳税,完善国内碳交易市场,积极参与碳关税的制定;我国企业应加快新能源技术的开发和应用,实施低碳战略,以应对碳关税壁垒对我国出口的影响。     

The effect of the Uruguay round on the intensive and extensive margins of trade

Do tariffs inhibit trade flows by limiting the entry of exporters (‘firm extensive margin’) or by restricting the average volume exported by each firm (‘firm intensive margin’)? Using a gravity equation approach, we analyze how the decrease in tariffs promoted during the 90s by the Uruguay Round multilateral trade agreement affected the trade margins of French firms for 57 sectors and 147 countries from 1993 to 2002. Our main contribution is to estimate the elasticity of trade on both margins, controlling for the unobserved heterogeneity of trade flows thanks to a three-dimensional panel and to time-varying tariffs as a measure of variable trade costs. Our results show that the number of firms exporting in a given sector to a given destination is related to the level of tariffs. But they also show that the decrease in tariffs induced by the implementation of the Uruguay Round did not lead more firms to export and that it only induced incumbent exporters to increase their shipments. We control for two problems that may affect our basic specification: tariff changes may be endogenous and zero flows are not included. Our results are confirmed — even when the extensive margin is significant, its magnitude is very small.     

The role of inbound tourist flows in promoting exports

While it is established that tourism benefits growth through increased employment and investments, it is not well understood whether tourism has an effect on exports. This paper explores exports as an additional channel through which tourism affects domestic economic activity. Using bilateral tourist and trade flows, the paper explores the causal effect of tourist flows on exports. To deal with endogeneity, two instruments are constructed and subsequently used on two different sets of exporters, one of the instruments being the number of casualties due to terrorism in a country. We find that tourism affects mainly the exports of differentiated products. Specifically, we find that tourism benefits the exports from non‐OECD exporters of processed food products and this effect is only estimated for South–North trade with an elasticity close to 1. For European countries, the findings point in the same direction; tourism affects differentiated consumer products and processed food with elasticity close to 1, which adds plausibility to the earlier results. We also find a lagged effect for tourism mainly on the export of consumer goods (for the two samples) and processed food products (for European countries). The results suggest that exporting is an additional channel through which tourism can stimulate domestic economic activity in the tourist destination.     

Export Performance and Access to Intermediate Inputs: The Case of Rules of Origin Liberalisation

Internationally fragmented production processes have highlighted the need of efficient sourcing from foreign suppliers. This paper aims to investigate how exports of final goods are affected by better access to foreign intermediate inputs. In particular, the paper empirically tests whether expanding the set of available intermediate input suppliers through preferential rules of origin liberalisation affects exports of final goods. We exploit the introduction of the southern Mediterranean countries into the Pan‐Euro‐Med zone of diagonal cumulation which meant that foreign intermediate inputs could be used from more countries than before without jeopardising the preferential access to the EU. Using a fixed effects specification that controls for detailed levels of unobserved heterogeneity and multilateral resistance, we examine the effect of the new diagonal cumulation possibilities on southern Mediterranean exports to EU‐15. We find a positive effect on both export intensity, the value of exports, and export diversification, the number of exported products. Being part of the Pan‐Euro‐Med zone of diagonal cumulation is associated with a 20 per cent increase in export intensity and a 5 per cent increase in export diversification.     

Export promotion activities in developing countries: What kind of trade do they promote?

Information problems involved in trading differentiated goods are a priori acuter than those associated with trading more homogeneous products. The impact of export promotion activities intending to address these problems can therefore be expected to differ across goods with different degree of differentiation. Empirical evidence on this respect is virtually inexistent. This article aims at filling this gap in the literature by providing estimates of the effect of these activities over firms trading different goods using highly disaggregated export data for the whole population of Costa Rican exporters over the period 2001–2006. We find that trade promotion actions favor an increase of exports along the extensive margin, in particular, in terms of destination countries, in the case of firms that are already selling differentiated goods. However, these actions do not seem to encourage exporter to start exporting these goods. Further, no significant impacts are observed for firms exporting reference-priced and homogeneous goods.     

Who Uses Intermediaries in International Trade? Evidence from Firm‐level Survey Data

The present paper uses data from the World Bank Enterprise Survey conducted in Turkey in 2005 to shed light on the firms that use intermediaries in international trade. It lends robust empirical support to recent theories which suggest that indirect exporters are mostly small firms that are not profitable enough to cover the high fixed costs of building an own distribution network abroad. Manufacturers who develop new products are more likely to use trade intermediaries, as are firms that produce low‐quality goods. In contrast, neither foreign ownership nor credit constraints are correlated with the choice of export mode. Moreover, firms that rely on trade intermediaries to sell their goods abroad also do so to source their foreign inputs, implying that the role of intermediaries in facilitating trade may be larger than previous studies suggest.     

Market access,supplier access,and Africa's manufactured exports: A firm level analysis

Abstract

In a large cross-country sample of manufacturing establishments drawn from 188 cities, average exports per establishments are smaller for African firms than for businesses in other regions. Based on the estimation of firm level exporting equations, we show that this is mainly because, on average, African firms face more adverse economic geography and operate in poorer institutional settings. One part of the effect of geography operates through Africa's lower ‘foreign market access’: African firms are located further away from wealthier or denser potential export markets. A second occurs through the region's lower ‘supplier access’: African firms face steeper input prices, partly because of their physical distance from cheaper foreign suppliers, and partly because domestic substitutes for importable inputs are more expensive. Africa's poorer institutions reduce its manufactured exports directly, as well as indirectly, by lowering foreign market access and supplier access. Both geography and institutions influence average firm level exports significantly more through their effect on the number of exporters than through their impact on how much each exporter sells onto foreign markets.