液态生物质燃料发展对生态环境的影响研究进展与展望

全球推广和使用液态生物质燃料成为替代能源选择与可持续发展的大势所趋,而各国政府和社会各界对发展液态生物质燃料产业可能带来的影响十分关注,本文对液态生物质燃料发展的生态环境影响,包括温室气体排放,资源开发利用,生物多样性以及人类健康等方面的研究进展进行总结,并对未来研究予以了展望。     

生物质能源发展会带来中国粮食安全问题吗?——以玉米燃料乙醇为例的模型及分析框架

以燃料乙醇为代表的生物质能源的发展引起了关于能源安全与粮食安全的巨大争议。本文建立了一个以玉米燃料乙醇为例的理论模型及分析框架,分别在短期动态均衡、长期动态均衡以及有进口补充的情况下分析生物质能源的发展对中国粮食安全的可能影响,并通过玉米生产和供求的特征进一步说明燃料乙醇的发展对粮食安全影响的实际状况。研究结果表明,燃料乙醇的发展并没有给粮食安全带来实质性的影响,但长期来看不排除存在粮食安全的风险。从模型分析结果看,中国可以通过对补贴政策、替代政策、贸易政策以及技术政策的调整来解决燃料乙醇的发展给粮食安全带来的影响。     

生物质能源发展对粮食安全影响的内在机理分析

该文是基于粮食安全视角下对发展福建生物质能这一新兴产业做出的思考.从生物质能源发展引发的粮食安全与能源安全的平衡思索切入,通过运用蛛网模型分析,并借助Granger因果检验方法和ECM模型对玉米价格与乙醇价格之间的因果关系做出判断,通过实证研究,从而对生物质能源发展是如何影响粮食安全的内在机理做深入探讨.     

生物燃料与粮食安全

1 生物燃料的涵义 所谓生物燃料,是指利用可再生或可循环的有机物质,以包括农作物、树木和其他植物及其残体、畜禽粪便、有机废弃物等为原料,通过工业性加工转化生产生物基产品、生物燃料和生物能源.目前,生物柴油和燃料乙醇是生物燃料中最主要的两类产品,与粮食市场密切相关.     

生物质成型燃料产业发展前景分析

生物质成型燃料是一种高效的清洁能源,可以替代化石燃料,缓解人类面临的能源危机和环境困境。文章分析了产业发展的原料资源、成型技术、市场需求、成本-效益及政策支撑等优势。结果表明,在我国发展生物质成型燃料产业是可行的。同时,探讨产业发展面临的各种障碍,提出解决成型机生产技术瓶颈、用户环保意识与产品认知度薄弱、产业政策过于宏观等问题的策略建议。     

生物燃料乙醇发展与粮食安全的关联度分析

从生物燃料乙醇发展与粮食安全的作用机制出发,认为燃料乙醇发展是通过要素的流动性在不同程度上影响粮食安全的。通过灰色系统分析方法将二者定量化,发现汽油价格和人口总量的上涨,分别对燃料玉米和人们直接或间接食用玉米需求量的影响程度最大,但都是在一定条件下才会产生粮食安全问题。政府可以通过对国内成品油定价机制和燃料乙醇补贴方面做出政策调整,来协调汽油价格上涨而引发的粮食安全问题。此外,假设短期内人口数量保持不变、替代效应为零,居民人均收入对直接或间接食用玉米量的影响系数最大,一旦产生粮食安全问题,政府则需要补贴低收入家庭,以保证居民整体福利最优。     

生物燃料乙醇发展对中国粮食安全的影响分析——基于“与粮争地”的视角

生物质能源由于其清洁、无污染和可再生而受到青睐,开发利用生物质能源已成为世界能源可持续发展战略的重要组成部分,但是以燃料乙醇为代表的生物质能源的发展引起了关于粮食安全的巨大争议.本文研究表明,从未来一段时期我国农业生产和燃料乙醇产业发展趋势看,以玉米为原料生产燃料乙醇受到土地要素的约束,从而对我国的粮食安全具有一定的影响,且其对车用汽油需求的替代潜力并不大,应从挖掘内部潜力与寻找替代来源等途径解决燃料乙醇发展问题.     

经济持续增长和能源安全背景下液态生物质燃料的发展研究——基于燃料乙醇弥补汽油缺口的视角

本文通过构建能源缺口假定下的产出影响模型,分析了能源供给不足造成的经济影响,并从燃料乙醇弥补汽油的角度探讨了中国发展液态生物质燃料缓解能源缺口影响的效应。研究表明,高增长下的中国经济若兼顾能源安全问题,将可能导致原油供给缺口的出现;若仅保证能源安全,能源供给不足势必引起经济增长放缓;要同时保证能源安全和经济持续增长需通过寻求有效的替代能源弥补缺口。     

生物质燃料成型机通过鉴定

秸秆压块机等生物质燃料同化成型设备是近年来随着生物质炉具的产生而出现的为之牛产配套燃料的产品。但许多产品存在模具不耐磨、生产率低耗电量大等缺陷,不能满足产业化生产的需叟,更不符合节能减排的要求。如何解决这些问题,一些企业和相关部门通过不断探索,研制出了一些新的产品,     

寻找能源安全和粮食安全的双赢——我国发展生物燃料的农产品原料分析

进入2005年以来,由于国际市场油价变动频繁,总体趋势逐渐走高,因此,加快生产并推广使用生物燃料就越发成为各界关注的话题.作为生物燃料的重要产品,燃料乙醇和添加了燃料乙醇的汽油能够缓解石油资源短缺、改善环境质量、促进农业产业化发展.就农业而言,它能够提升产业结构、带动农业发展、提高资源的综合利用效率,特别是通过农产品深加工还能增加农民收入,为我国农业发展注入新活力.     

新发展格局下虚拟水流动对区域粮食安全的影响

选取2012—2020年中国31个省(自治区、直辖市)的面板数据,基于彭曼公式估算稻谷、小麦、玉米、大豆四大粮食作物的虚拟水含量和贸易流量,通过固定效应回归模型分析虚拟水流动对区域粮食安全的影响。结果表明：粮食作物的虚拟水含量在品种、空间上存在明显的差别,虚拟水从北方流向南且流动量逐年增加;虚拟水净调出量与区域粮食安全呈显著的倒“U”形关系,说明虚拟水在区域间的转移应存在一定限度;播种面积、人均水资源量、农业机械化水平和城镇化水平等因素对区域粮食安全均具有显著的影响。为此,提出了筑牢水利保障、优化种植结构、发展节水农业、提升粮食综合生产能力等保障区域粮食安全的对策建议。     

基于粮食安全视角的海洋农业发展价值分析

论文从粮食安全的视角分析了我国陆上粮食生产面临的挑战,阐释了现代食物观,认为维护我国粮食安全需要节流开源发展海洋农业,构建现代食物观,通过多种途径维护食物安全;论文阐述了海洋农业的基础地位,指出了其在完善农业产业链条、维护粮食安全体系完整等方面的基础性价值,并提出了发展我国海洋农业的政策建议。     

中国近30年影响粮食安全因素分析

近30年我国粮食总产量出现了较大的波动,中国的粮食安全重新引起社会各界的广泛关注。本文在分析我国近30年影响粮食安全因素的基础上,运用定量分析方法,探讨自然资源和人为因素对粮食生产的影响,包括耕地面积、粮食播种面积、有效灌溉面积、农用机械总动力、化肥施用量等因素与粮食总产量的相关关系。结果显示,相关系数依次为:化肥施用量>农用机械总动力>有效灌溉面积>粮食播种面积>耕地面积。     

The impact of integrated livestock disease management for food security in Togo

In sub-Saharan Africa, livestock is one of the key channels through which most households meet their food security needs. However, diseases such as the African Animal Trypanosomosis (AAT) constrain productivity. Using data from 445 randomly sampled small-scale cattle farmers, this paper investigates the role of integrated livestock disease control on household food security. Using a novel approach to link different food security measures to cattle productivity, the paper identifies the channels of impact at the household level. Methodologically, the paper estimated the propensity score matching algorithm to net out the effect of adoption. The results show that households who adopt RDU have record livestock productivity and higher consumption per capita expenditures. They tend to be more food secure, experience lower seasonal food supply fluctuations and experience a lower probability of falling below the food poverty line.     

The impact of population growth and climate change on food security in Africa: looking ahead to 2050

Providing nutritious and environmentally sustainable food to all people at all times is one of the greatest challenges currently facing society. This problem is particularly acute in Africa where an estimated one in four people still lack adequate food to sustain an active and healthy life. In this study, we consider the potential impact of future population growth and climate change on food security in Africa, looking ahead to 2050. A modelling framework termed FEEDME (Food Estimation and Export for Diet and Malnutrition Evaluation) was used which was characterized to model the impacts of future climate changes (utilizing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios projections) and projected population growth on food availability and subsequent undernourishment prevalence in 44 African countries. Our results indicate that projected rapid population growth will be the leading cause of food insecurity and widespread undernourishment across Africa. Very little to no difference in undernourishment projections were found when we examined future scenarios with and without the effects of climate change, suggesting population growth is the dominant driver of change. Various adaptation options are discussed, such as closing the yield gap via sustainable intensification and increasing imports through trade and aid agreements. These strategies are likely to be critical in preventing catastrophic future food insecurity.     

The microeconomics of food security

This article develops a dynamic microeconomic model of food security under uncertainty, with special focus on the relationships between food demand, nutrition and human survival. It investigates the influence of entitlements on malnutrition, hunger and starvation under uncertainty. It develops useful insights on the links between food security and a number of policy instruments commonly used in dealing with malnutrition and starvation.     

Beyond the grumpy rich man and the happy peasant: mixed methods and the impact of food security on subjective dimensions of wellbeing in India

This paper responds to the recent advocacy of subjective wellbeing in policy evaluation with an investigation of food security in rural Chhattisgarh, India, in 2010–2013. Conceptually, it suggests the need to move beyond a primary focus on happiness to consider a broader-based investigation into people’s subjective perceptions. In particular, it introduces a multi-domain model with some affinities to the capability approach, which asks what people think and feel themselves able to be and do. Methodologically, it suggests that the primary reliance on quantitative measures should be complemented by more qualitative approaches to give a more rounded appreciation of how people view their lives. Three approaches are presented: qualitative analysis of interview text; statistical analysis comparing a single measure of happiness with a broader, domain-based approach; and mixed qualitative and quantitative data generated from an individual case.     

Trade,policy, and food security

Food insecurity is extensive throughout the world and hunger and malnutrition are expected to remain serious humanitarian and political concerns, both in the short term and for the foreseeable future, particularly in low income developing countries where many rural and urban households are both income and asset poor. In those countries, domestic agricultural production is expected to be especially vulnerable to the impacts of climate change over the next 30 years. Thus international markets for staple agricultural commodities, which have become increasingly important as sources of nutrition for both developing and developed countries over the past 60 years, are likely to become even more important in the future. Free trade policies allow countries to exploit their comparative advantages in economic activity, increasing average per capita incomes, longer term growth rates and a country's capacity to fund social safety nets for the poor. However, many countries abandoned those policies in favor of domestic protections in their efforts to mitigate the effects of short run food crises. The policy challenge is therefore to resolve the tension between optimal long run policies and short run initiatives to address food security concerns.