论房地产市场调控中的中央与地方政府的博弈

针对中国房地产市场异常情况,政府出台一系列措施进行调控,由于中央与地方利益的博弈,政策执行效果却不尽如人意,应在中央政策在地方没有得到有效的贯彻落实。通过考量房地产市场调控中中央与地方政府利益的对立与统一基础上,求得二者之间博弈的均衡解。     

英国市政税对我国开征物业税的借鉴

近年来我国房价居高不下,2006年国家先后出台相关法规对房地产市场进行调控,但是实施效果并不理想。本文对现行法规在实施中遇到的问题进行了分析,并借鉴英国市政税征收的成功经验,提出通过开征物业税来保证地方财政收入、引导房地产行业理性健康发展的建议。     

住宅市场量价关系分析——基于香港数据的实证研究

本文基于滤波方法-9向量自回归模型，对香港十多年的住宅交易量和价格数据进行实证研究。结果显示，考察1996．1-1997．6区间的样本交易量与价格互为格兰杰因果关系，表现出正反馈效应，投机现象非常明显。但当选取1997．7-2007．7区间的样本则仅发现价格是交易量的格兰杰原因，并不存在双向因果关系。方差分解结果表明，交易量波动对于价格波动的影响要大于价格波动对于交易量的影响。     

论我国房地产税制改革的目标与途径

随着房地产市场的发展,尤其是房地产价格的不断上涨,期望通过税收工具抑制房价的呼声越来越强烈。本文认为,房地产价格的上涨是一种长期趋势,税收对房地产市场的调控应注意把握调控时机和调控力度。从税收政策目标看,不应以打压房价为目标,而应以促进房地产市场健康、有序发展为目标,并应在课税对象、税制结构、税负水平和征收管理上进行重新设计,最终建立起全新的、健全的房地产税收体系。     

房地产价格对城镇居民收入差距的影响研究——基于区际差异化市场比较

运用聚类分析方法和五等法计算六大类别不同代表省市的基尼系数,依据2002~2011年省市面板数据考量6个不同类别省市房地产价格对收入差距的影响。结果表明:我国不同类别省市的房价波动对基尼系数的变动呈现出一定的差异性与区域性;第一、三类地区房价波动对城镇居民收入差距产生显著影响;第二类地区房地产市场投资投机活动不如第一、三类城市活跃,房价波动幅度比较稳定;第四、五类地区房价波动对收入差距的影响程度次于第二类地区;第六类地区房价波动幅度小,对收入差距不足以产生显著影响。     

房地产税收调控政策的效应分析与建议

本文梳理了2005年以来国家针对房地产投资规模过大和部分城市住房价格上涨过快状况而出台的多项税收调控措施,并通过理论和实证分析认为,房地产税收调控政策的重点应从目前对供给方征税转向对需求方征税,即在房地产保有环节征税。为此,应尽快建立起全面准确的房地产信息资料和监控系统,加快推进物业税(不动产税)的改革。     

Buyers' and sellers' agents in the housing market

We explain why buyers in the housing market use an agent employed by the seller. Such agents reduce buyers' search costs so that more buyers search a particular house. This increases the probability of the sale of the house and possibly also its selling price. However, since the selling price increases, if at all, by less than the fee paid by the seller to the agent, both buyers and sellers are better off. We identify two characteristics that give rise to sellers' agents and show that markets that do not have such agents are missing at least one of these characteristics.     

Asset Price Spillover,Collateral and Crises: with an Application to Property Market Policy

This paper studies the impact of land supply elasticity and land use regulation. For sufficiently adverse shocks constrained entrepreneurs liquidate their assets for debt repayment. This effect can spillover to the residential property market. A crisis occurs when households are forced to default on their mortgages as well. While both converting costs and land use regulation tend to magnify the effect of adverse shock, the former generates an asymmetric effect between a positive and a negative shock on the land market, and the latter tends to raise the likelihood of a crisis, by raising the threshold value of liquidation.

Individual Agents,Firms, and the Real Estate Brokerage Process

This study examines how individual agents affect house selling prices and time on the market while controlling for brokerage firm-specific effects as well as supply and demand conditions that vary by neighborhood. Firm size effects disappear once firm specialization and agent characteristics are taken into account but geographic concentration by firms leads to higher selling prices. For individual agents, neither sex nor selling own listings affects price or selling time, but there are gains from partnering transactions across firms. Agents who specialize in listing properties obtain higher prices for their sellers while those who specialize in selling obtain lower prices for their buyers. Houses nearer to other transactions of an agent sell for higher prices. Finally, greater scale of listing and selling activity by an agent tends to lower selling price or lengthen the time on the market.

Housing Quality in the Forward Contracts Market

Developers often conduct forward sales (or presales) before building completion to relieve financial risk and burden. However, there are worries that housing units sold in this way will turn out to be substandard because developers, who have been paid for the unfinished units, may have incentives to cut costs by lowering the quality. This is a typical moral hazard problem. Nonetheless, forward sales have been very popular in some Asian cities such as Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan. A plausible explanation is that the market has efficiently adjusted the forward price for this potential quality problem according to developers’ reputations. This paper aims to theoretically explain and empirically test (1) whether reputation is reflected in forward prices and (2) whether the expected quality level matches with the actual quality level. Using the forward and spot sales data of the Hong Kong real estate market, we found that even though housing quality was not observable during presales, the market was able to capitalize developers’ reputations into forward prices accurately. This suggests that the optimal strategy for developers is to stick to the quality level implied by their reputations. A paper submitted to Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics. A Special Issue for the 2005 NUS-HKU Symposium on Real Estate Research.     

利率变动对中国房地产市场影响的实证分析

文章通过回顾中国近年来的利率调整变动状况,从实证角度详细分析利率变动对房地产供给市场、房地产需求市场以及土地市场的影响,总结作为宏观调控重要手段之一的货币政策的核心———利率对房地产的宏观调控作用,并得出相应的规律性。     

物业税开征的先决条件之一:房地产产权制度的改革与完善

明晰的房地产产权关系以及相应完善的管理制度是开征物业税不可缺少的重要条件。本文探讨了物业税与房地产产权管理的一般关系,针对我国房地产产权管理现状存在的问题,提出了开展房地产产权登记普查、逐步统一城乡房地产产权管理制度等政策建议。     

The Effect of House Price on Stock Market Participation in China: Evidence from the CHFS Microdata

This is an empirical study on the effect of house price on stock market participation and its depths based on unique China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) data in 2011 and 2013 including 36,213 sample households. We mainly found that, with an increase of one thousand RMB per square meter in macrohouse price, the probability to participate in the stock market will increase by 5.4% before controlling for wealth effect and 2.84% afterwards, indicating the existence of wealth effect. The participation depths of the stock-total asset ratio are expected to decrease by 0.23%, and absolute stock asset is observed to decrease by 5.8 thousand RMB in response to one thousand RMB increase of per square meter house price. The effect of house price on participation decision is also related to housing area, and the negative effect of house price on stock market participation depths gets more intense with the increase of the stock-total asset ratio.     

Information Diffusion and Overreaction: Evidence from the Chinese Stock Market

This paper empirically examines the relation between overreaction and the speed of information diffusion in the Chinese stock market. Industry-adjusted firm size and residual analyst coverage are used to proxy the speed of information diffusion. We document strong evidence that the profitability of a monthly contrarian strategy decreases with industry-adjusted firm size or residual analyst coverage. Moreover, the profitability of contrarian strategies survives for a longer horizon for stocks with slower information diffusion than for those with faster information diffusion. This result holds true even if risk, bid-ask spread, lead-lag effect, inventory costs, and limits to arbitrage are properly accounted for. Our findings suggest that information environment and information diffusion determine the extent of overreaction.     

The Value of Market Information in Banking Supervision: Evidence from Italy

We examine the potential use of signals arising from financial markets as a complement to the information set available to banking supervisors. We provide empirical evidence on Italian banks, using a unique dataset matching accounting ratios, market variables, and supervisory ratings. To verify what type of signal they are able to convey, we analyze the behavior of four equity-based indicators for the Italian banks listed on the Milan stock exchange. We then investigate whether the same indicators provide additional information for supervisors. Econometric results confirm the informative content of market variables and their complementarity with supervisory information.JEL Classification: Bank, banking supervision, early warning, market discipline     

Uncertainty,growth controls,and the efficiency of development patterns

This article examines the regulation of real estate development patterns from the perspective of the suburban household. Employing concepts of efficiency developed in the financial economics literature, it argues that uncertainty about future growth impacts, coupled with transactions costs, contributes to the motivation to enact growth controls. The article concludes by suggesting that in an information-efficient environment an alternative pricing policy, rather than regulatory intervention, is a Pareto-preferred response.     

The Relative Effect of Property Type and Country Factors in Reduction of Risk of Internationally Diversified Real Estate Portfolios

We examine and test the merits of diversifying portfolios of real estate securities internationally and across property types. Our analysis covers the period January 1990 through July 2005. Using data from the Global Property Research GPR 250 Property Securities Index, which has monthly prices for five property type indexes in 21 countries, we decompose country and property type sources of variation in real estate security returns. We find that property type effects are smaller than country effects. Property type specialization explains only 6% of the variance of national real estate securities index returns. Because property type effects are so small, country diversification is a more effective tool for achieving risk reduction than property type diversification. In addition, we find evidence that the relative importance of country effects is decreasing while that of industry effects is increasing. However, country effects continue to dominate property type effects.     

Empirical Evidence on the Role of Trading Suspensions in Disseminating New Information to the Capital Market

Abstract:  This paper examines the effect of temporarily suspending the trading of exchange-listed individual stocks. We evaluate whether regulatory authorities can successfully use the mechanism of trading suspension in forcing companies to disclose new and material information to the capital market. Previous studies on trading suspensions mainly concentrate on North-American stock markets and find conflicting results. This study utilizes a new data set comprising of firms listed on Euronext Brussels – an important segment of Europe's leading cross-border exchange. Our results show that suspension is indeed an effective means of disseminating new information. Stock prices adjust completely and instantaneously to the new information released during trading suspensions. We also observe a significant increase in trading volume with the reinstatement of trading. On the other hand, we do not find support for the claim that trading suspensions increase the volatility of stock prices. Overall, our results show the efficacy of trading suspensions in disseminating new information.     

The crowding out effect of booming real estate markets on corporate TFP: evidence from China

This paper explores the impact of housing price appreciation on corporate total factor productivity (TFP) in Chinese A‐share listed corporations. Results show that increasing real estate prices negatively affect corporate TFP. Meanwhile, we find that the deterring effect is especially significant for state‐owned enterprises (SOEs), large corporations and manufacturing corporations. This research further provides suggestive evidence that managerial myopia may be one potential explanation for the crowding out effect of increasing housing prices. When home purchase is under restriction, however, the negative impact of rising housing prices on corporate TFP declines sharply. This study illustrates the efficiency cost of China's booming real estate market.     

Daily Stock Trading by Investor Type and Information Asymmetry: Evidence from the Korean Market

We examine the influence of trading by heterogeneous investors on information asymmetry in the Korean stock market, which includes domestic and foreign institutional investors and individual investors. In particular, we examine the relationship between the daily trading volume and the level of information asymmetry reflected in the stock price. The results reveal that high-volume daily trading by domestic institutional and individual investors increases the degree of information asymmetry in the short term, but is more evident for individual investors. Foreign institutional investors tend to mitigate the information asymmetry. Finally, our findings are robust to an alternative measure of investor trading.