Individual Agents,Firms, and the Real Estate Brokerage Process

This study examines how individual agents affect house selling prices and time on the market while controlling for brokerage firm-specific effects as well as supply and demand conditions that vary by neighborhood. Firm size effects disappear once firm specialization and agent characteristics are taken into account but geographic concentration by firms leads to higher selling prices. For individual agents, neither sex nor selling own listings affects price or selling time, but there are gains from partnering transactions across firms. Agents who specialize in listing properties obtain higher prices for their sellers while those who specialize in selling obtain lower prices for their buyers. Houses nearer to other transactions of an agent sell for higher prices. Finally, greater scale of listing and selling activity by an agent tends to lower selling price or lengthen the time on the market.

On the real estate market efficiency

This reseach reexamines the efficiency hypothesis of the real estate market using monthly data and the vector autoregressive (VAR) modelling technique. The tests focus on the causal linkage between real estate returns and a number of relevant financial and economic variables. An eight-by-eight VAR model is estimated using the FPE and the specific gravity criteria, in conjunction with an extensive series of specification tests. The empirical results distilled from system estimations suggest that the real estate market is efficient with respect to available information on the industrial production, the risk premia, the term structure of interest rates, and the monetary base. Movements in these variables are quickly and fully utilized by market agents, perhaps owing to the intensity with which their relationship with stock returns has been discussed in the literature and the popular media. However, the results also suggest the presence of a significant lagged relationship between real estate returns and fiscal policy moves, even when the paths through other potential determinants of these returns are taken into account. Of course, our finding that the fiscal policy measure is useful in predicting stock returns does not necessarily imply that the real estate market is inefficient. At a minimum, inefficiency is revealed only if a careful analysis of the budgetary process can help design a profitable (exploitable) trading strategy.     

现行房价调控措施分析及对策研究

本文认为,“房地产新政”出台实施以来,效果很不理想,其中原因主要是调控策略和税收调控的着力点选择不完全正确。为此,提出了增加经济适用房和廉租房供给、降低地价、严控信贷及改变税收调控着力点四个方面的政策建议。     

Empirical tests of real estate market efficiency

Recent empirical research using real estate data has supported the weak and semi-strong forms of the efficient markets hypothesis. Previous studies have not included an estimate of expected appreciation into the tests of market efficiency, thus raising a question about the reliability of the results. We first use a market model to test for market efficiency with results similar to those reported by others. We next use a dynamic multiple indicator, multiple cause (DYMIMIC) model, which extracts a vector of expected appreciation from the price data, to test market efficiency. This approach produces superior results and a stronger conclusion about the efficiency of housing markets. The results indicate limited adjustment delays which can be explained by the existence of high transactions and search costs.     

利率变动对中国房地产市场影响的实证分析

文章通过回顾中国近年来的利率调整变动状况,从实证角度详细分析利率变动对房地产供给市场、房地产需求市场以及土地市场的影响,总结作为宏观调控重要手段之一的货币政策的核心———利率对房地产的宏观调控作用,并得出相应的规律性。     

论我国房地产税制改革的目标与途径

随着房地产市场的发展,尤其是房地产价格的不断上涨,期望通过税收工具抑制房价的呼声越来越强烈。本文认为,房地产价格的上涨是一种长期趋势,税收对房地产市场的调控应注意把握调控时机和调控力度。从税收政策目标看,不应以打压房价为目标,而应以促进房地产市场健康、有序发展为目标,并应在课税对象、税制结构、税负水平和征收管理上进行重新设计,最终建立起全新的、健全的房地产税收体系。     

Economic growth and the stability and efficiency of the financial sector

It has been claimed that the ability of emerging markets to adopt optimal stabilization policies is hampered by a number of factors. Among them, it has been recently emphasized the role of financial instability, inefficiencies, and financial market imperfections. It is claimed here that the current financial regulatory paradigm, embodied in Basel II, may improve financial stability but reinforces cyclicality. Therefore, countries should emphasize financial efficiency since it would lead to enhanced financial stability, without increasing cyclicality.     

On the asymmetric relationship between stock market development,energy efficiency and environmental quality: A nonlinear analysis

It has been widely documented in the literature that financial development drives up the impact of CO₂ emissions through increases in real economic activities and the consumption of polluting fossil fuel energy. However, when dealing with stock market development, such upward effects on economic growth, energy efficiency, and carbon emissions seems to give away to a positive impact especially in emerging markets. This paper contributes to this debate by exploring both the symmetric and asymmetric responses of CO₂ emission to changes in stock market development indicators. Using both the panel linear and nonlinear ARDL, our results demonstrate the asymmetric effects of stock market development indicator son carbon emissions in the context of emerging markets. In particular, the long-run elasticities results suggest that positive and negative shocks on stock market indicator decreases environmental quality by increasing carbon emissions. Based on these empirical findings, this study offers some crucial policy implications. Especially, policy makers should implement strong environmental policies in emerging markets economies to reduce carbon emissions of industrial companies without significantly affecting the development of financial markets.     

Evidence of Information Asymmetries in the Market for Residential Condominiums

Previous research (Rutherford et al. 2005; Levitt and Syverson 2005) identify and quantify agency problems in the brokerage of single-family houses. Real estate agents are found to receive a premium when selling their own houses in comparison to similar client-owned houses. Given the homogeneity of the condominium market in comparison to the single-family house market, we use a large sample of condominium transactions to examine if agency problems exist in the condominium market. Controlling for sample selection and endogeneity bias of the data, we find evidence for a similar price premium for agent-owned condominiums. In contrast to the results for single-family houses in the same geographic market, we find that agent-owned condominiums must stay on the market longer to receive a higher price.

Market development and market efficiency: evidence based on nonlinear panel unit root tests

This study tests the weak form market efficiency of 32 European stock markets. Utilizing monthly data from June 2006 to June 2017, six different, newly developed nonlinear panel root tests were applied in three different groups of European markets: Frontier, Emerging and Developed. The results show that there is a meaningful relationship between different levels of economic development and the weak form market efficiency. Considering the nonlinear structure of the stock market indices, use of linear models might lead to wrong conclusions regarding market efficiency. Using several nonlinear panel root tests, the results of this study shed more light on the true data generating process of the stock market indices and more appropriately model market efficiency.     

论房地产市场调控中的中央与地方政府的博弈

针对中国房地产市场异常情况,政府出台一系列措施进行调控,由于中央与地方利益的博弈,政策执行效果却不尽如人意,应在中央政策在地方没有得到有效的贯彻落实。通过考量房地产市场调控中中央与地方政府利益的对立与统一基础上,求得二者之间博弈的均衡解。     

Irreversibility,Uncertainty and Housing Investment

Housing represents a form of “irreversible” investment. Theoretically, increased uncertainty should lower housing investment. Empirically, finding a proxy for uncertainty has proven problematic. Some recent papers have investigated the effect of uncertainty on real estate investment, with varying proxies for uncertainty and mixed results. This paper employs a technique used in modern macroeconomic studies, the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity-in-Mean model, which has been shown to correspond as closely as any known measure to theoretical concepts of uncertainty. Results indicate that uncertainty indeed has a negative impact on housing starts.     

The Relative Effect of Property Type and Country Factors in Reduction of Risk of Internationally Diversified Real Estate Portfolios

We examine and test the merits of diversifying portfolios of real estate securities internationally and across property types. Our analysis covers the period January 1990 through July 2005. Using data from the Global Property Research GPR 250 Property Securities Index, which has monthly prices for five property type indexes in 21 countries, we decompose country and property type sources of variation in real estate security returns. We find that property type effects are smaller than country effects. Property type specialization explains only 6% of the variance of national real estate securities index returns. Because property type effects are so small, country diversification is a more effective tool for achieving risk reduction than property type diversification. In addition, we find evidence that the relative importance of country effects is decreasing while that of industry effects is increasing. However, country effects continue to dominate property type effects.     

A theory of predictable excess returns in real estate

A principal-agent model is employed to characterize the equilibrium mortgage contract. The value of a house depends on the actions of its owner but affects the wealth of both the owner and the lender who writes the mortgage contract with which the house is purchased. Because of this, the buyer is exposed to moral hazard. In some situations, this can lead to inefficient maintenance and predictable excess returns to home ownership. Even though there are potential buyers willing to pay back more money, the bank will not write loans for these consumers because of the adverse incentive effects of such an action.     

美国马里兰州财产税税制概况及特点

财产税是美国地方政府的主体税种。本文系统介绍了美国马里兰州财产税税制的概况及特点,并对我国建立物业税制度提出了一些建议,如物业税税制宜简不宜繁、对个人房地产应设立较轻的税负、加强评税机构及相关制度的建设、在试点的基础上逐步开征物业税等。     

房地产价格对城镇居民收入差距的影响研究——基于区际差异化市场比较

运用聚类分析方法和五等法计算六大类别不同代表省市的基尼系数,依据2002~2011年省市面板数据考量6个不同类别省市房地产价格对收入差距的影响。结果表明:我国不同类别省市的房价波动对基尼系数的变动呈现出一定的差异性与区域性;第一、三类地区房价波动对城镇居民收入差距产生显著影响;第二类地区房地产市场投资投机活动不如第一、三类城市活跃,房价波动幅度比较稳定;第四、五类地区房价波动对收入差距的影响程度次于第二类地区;第六类地区房价波动幅度小,对收入差距不足以产生显著影响。     

投资收益、经营效率和寿险企业市场绩效

中国寿险业的垄断型市场结构并没有造成垄断企业控制市场以获得超额利润的情况。本文选取中国人寿、泰康人寿、新华人寿三家企业1998年～2007年间的面板数据作为样本数据,分析了我国寿险公司绩效的影响因素,认为在中国寿险业日益激烈的市场竞争下,寿险企业的利润主要来自投资收益,经营效率高的企业虽然不能因为技术效率和规模效率而获得高利润,但是可以在竞争中占有更多的市场份额。     

Asset Price Spillover,Collateral and Crises: with an Application to Property Market Policy

This paper studies the impact of land supply elasticity and land use regulation. For sufficiently adverse shocks constrained entrepreneurs liquidate their assets for debt repayment. This effect can spillover to the residential property market. A crisis occurs when households are forced to default on their mortgages as well. While both converting costs and land use regulation tend to magnify the effect of adverse shock, the former generates an asymmetric effect between a positive and a negative shock on the land market, and the latter tends to raise the likelihood of a crisis, by raising the threshold value of liquidation.

The crowding out effect of booming real estate markets on corporate TFP: evidence from China

This paper explores the impact of housing price appreciation on corporate total factor productivity (TFP) in Chinese A‐share listed corporations. Results show that increasing real estate prices negatively affect corporate TFP. Meanwhile, we find that the deterring effect is especially significant for state‐owned enterprises (SOEs), large corporations and manufacturing corporations. This research further provides suggestive evidence that managerial myopia may be one potential explanation for the crowding out effect of increasing housing prices. When home purchase is under restriction, however, the negative impact of rising housing prices on corporate TFP declines sharply. This study illustrates the efficiency cost of China's booming real estate market.     

美、英、日财产税税制特征和对我国的启示

本文首先介绍了美国、英国、日本三国财产税的基本情况,并总结了各国财产税税制设计的特征,在此基础上,剖析了我国房地产税制现存的问题,对我国开征物业税提出了相关政策建议。