Price-Predicting Ability of Farm Managers: Empirical Findings with Flower Producers in the Netherlands

Differences in income among horticultural growers producing under similar conditions are known to be substantial. Production policy, including cultivar choice, plays an important role. Both price variation over time and price differences among cultivars provide valuable management information to growers to adapt their production policy. This study focuses on price-predicting skills of specialized chrysanthemum growers. The study, based on a survey among 26 participants, shows that growers who predict absolute prices well for one period do not have a higher chance of predicting well for other periods. With respect to predicting relative price positions (relative to other cultivars or other firms), evidence is found, however, that this is a skill, especially for estimating the relative market position. Also, evidence is provided that price differences among cultivars are nonrandom in time, and it is concluded that growers could adapt their production planning and cultivar choice to benefit from expected price variations.     

The Relationship between Animal Welfare and Economic Performance at Farm Level: A Quantitative Study of Danish Pig Producers

We propose a theoretical framework for the relationship between animal welfare and the economic performance of livestock farms. We empirically analyse this relationship based on a unique dataset of randomly sampled Danish pig herds that includes information from unannounced inspections of the compliance with the animal welfare legislation. We find large variations in economic performance and animal welfare. The relationship between these two indicators is rather weak, but tends to be slightly positive. A possible explanation for our results is that management has a major influence on both economic performance and animal welfare so that good farm managers are able to meet all animal welfare regulations, while achieving a high economic performance.     

Effects of Marketing Decisions on Net Present Value of Pork Production for Independent and Allied Swine Producers

Competitive environments in swine production make management strategies that increase profitability important. An open-coded model to evaluate the economic impact of two marketing strategies is developed for swine finishing operations. Higher profits are realized for a fixed-date marketing strategy in allied production than for a fixed-target-weight marketing strategy in independent production. Producing pigs to weights heavier than the average market weight also increases profits. Shipping pigs over a shortened time from a barn and decreasing time between batches of pigs improves profits if it can be done with a tighter weight distribution of pigs produced.     

头屯河农场畜牧业生产现状及发展对策

通过对头屯河农场畜牧业生产的现状和特点进行分析，提出畜牧业生产的对策。     

Agricultural Producers and the Environment: A Stated Preference Analysis of Colorado Corn Producers

This paper analyzes Colorado corn producers’ preferences over both private‐ and environmental public‐good production system attributes, and tests the robustness of alternative data reconstruction and estimation techniques. Irrigated corn production practices are characterized by intensive water and chemical use, resulting in nonpoint source pollution to water bodies as well as soil erosion problems. Data from a stated preference survey are employed to analyze key attributes of experimentally configured irrigation systems, proposed as alternatives to current practices. Panel mixed logit estimations (and several alternative fixed parameter specifications) uncover consistently positive preferences for profit, risk reduction, and, importantly, systems with less environmental impact in terms of nitrate leaching and soil erosion. The analysis also finds evidence of preference heterogeneity and a complementary relationship between the two environmental attributes. Analysis of this kind can be used by policy makers to predict behavioral responses associated with introduction of new technologies, or to assess welfare implications of agricultural policy changes and stricter environmental regulations. Dans le présent article, nous avons analysé les préférences des producteurs de maïs du Colorado concernant les attributs des systèmes de production de biens environnementaux publics et privés et avons vérifié la robustesse des techniques de rechange pour la reconstruction et l’estimation des données. Les pratiques de production de maïs irrigué sont caractérisées par l’utilisation intensive d’eau et de produits chimiques qui entraîne une pollution diffuse des plans d’eau ainsi que des problèmes d’érosion du sol. Nous avons utilisé des données tirées d’un sondage sur les préférences déclarées pour analyser les principaux attributs des systèmes d’irrigation expérimentaux proposés comme solutions de rechange aux pratiques actuelles. Les estimations du modèle mixte logit (et plusieurs spécifications de paramètres fixes) ont permis de découvrir des préférences uniformément positives concernant les profits, la réduction des risques et les systèmes ayant moins d’impact environnemental du point de vue du lessivage des nitrates et de l’érosion du sol. L’analyse a également montré l’hétérogénéité des préférences et l’existence d’un lien complémentaire entre les deux attributs environnementaux. Les décideurs pourraient utiliser ce genre d’analyse pour prévoir les réactions comportementales liées à l’introduction de nouvelles technologies ou pour évaluer les répercussions des changements de politique agricole et des règlements environnementaux plus stricts sur le bien‐être.     

农七师137团蔬菜发展的现状及制约因素与解决办法

本文对137团蔬菜发展现状及制约因素进行了分析,指出市场需求不足、土地承包规模、观念滞后,缺乏资金等为发展的制约因素,为此,提出党委重视,统一思想,加强领导,加大投入政策扶持等解决的对策。     

Optimal Storage by Crop Producers

When post–harvest marketing strategies are restricted by disallowing speculative purchases, sales out of storage becomes an irreversible decision and the dynamic marketing problem becomes analogous to the optimal exercise of a financial option. The optimal marketing strategy is to hold at low prices and to sell at high prices with a cutoff price function marking the boundary between low and high prices. A method for estimating the cut–off price function is developed and applied to Illinois soybean prices. The decision rule is demonstrated to result in substantial gains from storage.     

Farm Input, Farm Output and Retail Food Prices: A Cointegration Analysis

This paper investigates the adjustment mechanism between farm input prices, farm output prices and food retail prices in Canada. Johansen's maximum likelihood approach is used in addition to the Engle-Granger approach to test for cointegration. Contrary to the common assumption that farm output prices are more flexible than farm input prices, it is found that farm output prices, though cointegrated, are weakly exogenous in the sense that they do not respond in a systematic manner to disequilibrium in farm input prices and retail food prices. Evidence is found to support “cost push” and “demand pull” theories but, since food retail prices carry a heavier weight in the cointegration relations, it can be concluded that shocks manifesting themselves (first) at the retail level do not persist as long. Cet ouvrage se concentre sur le mécanisme d'ajustement entre les prix des intrants à la ferme, les prix payés aux producteurs agricoles et les prix de l'alimentation au détail au Canada. Les techniques développées par Johansen et par Engle et Granger sont utilisées pour vérifier des hypothèses reliées à la cointegration. Contrairement à la présomption que les prix payés aux agriculteurs sont plus flexibles que les prix de leurs intrants, on a découvert que les prix payés aux agriculteurs, bien que cointégrés, sont exogènes au moindre degré dans le sens qu'ils ne s'ajustent pas en fonction du déséquilibre dans les prix des intrants et les prix de l'alimentation au detail. La théorie voulant que les prix montent à cause des hausses dans les prix des intrants est vérifiée de même que la théorie alternative voulant que les ajustements des prix se fassent du détail aux intrants. Fluctuations occasionées par des changements dans les prix de l'alimentation au détail sont dissipées plus rapidement que les ajustements causés par des variations dans les prix des intrants.     

Production Efficiency of Specialized Swine Producers

This research provides an efficiency evaluation of swine firms by specialization type providing estimates of technical, allocative, scale, and overall efficiency separately for farrow-to-finish, farrow-to-feeder, feeder-to-finish, farrow-to-weanling, and weanling-to-feeder operations. Results indicate variation in efficiency measures both across and within operation specializations. This suggests optimal adjustments for enhancing efficiency may not be homogeneous across the industry and may vary across specializations. The analysis also implies that future analyses of the swine industry must carefully and individually consider the diverse specializations comprising the industry. These findings are important in further understanding the rapid change occurring in the swine industry in the form of increased production specialization.     

Descriptive Analysis of Saskatchewan Organic Producers

A total of 69 Saskatchewan organic producers were surveyed in the spring of 1991. Although Saskatchewan organic farming represents a move toward an alternative conventional system of agriculture it is not a complete reversal from conventional practices. Saskatchewan organic farmers are experimenting with highly integrated systems which incorporate green manure crops and soil testing and require high management and marketing skills. In a study of then-goals and objectives using fuzzy sets, environment and healthy food were ranked above farm survival. This leads to the conclusion that most organic farmers do not adopt organic practices based on purely economic criteria but on higher goals within their own hierarchy.     

Potatoes,Petty Commodity Producers and Livelihoods: Contract farming and agrarian change in Maharashtra,India

This paper explores the implications of contract farming for patterns of agrarian change in India. The paper draws on a detailed analysis of primary qualitative data from a case study of potato contract farming in the state of Maharashtra. It argues that debates on contract farming are often ideological in nature, leading to overly simplified narratives of “win–win” or “win–lose.” Instead, by combining the strengths of agrarian political economy and rural livelihood analysis, the paper offers a concrete exploration of the intersections between contract farming, livelihoods, and agrarian change. It finds that contract farming activities in the case study villages are focused on a group of petty commodity producers. However, rather than sparking dynamic new processes of accumulation among contract farmers or leading to new forms of exploitation, the paper argues that contract farming is contributing to processes of agrarian change “already under way.” These processes are intimately connected to livelihood diversification and the struggles of new classes of fragmented labour.     

Feeder-pig Producers and Finishers: Who Should Contract?

The purpose of this study is to determine the minimum level of contract payments required to produce hogs under a production contract. Required payments needed for contract growing to be preferred to independent production for the average-profit, slightly risk-averse, feeder-pig producer and for the high-profit, moderately to strongly risk-averse, feeder-pig producer are found to be similar to those currently offered by contractors. Feeder-pig finishers with average profit levels would either have to be strongly risk-averse or expect economic profits to fall to zero to prefer contracting over independent production. Low-profit feeder-pig finishers who are moderately to strongly risk-averse would prefer contracting. Feeder-pig finishers who historically have experienced above-average profits would require payments substantially above current contract rates to prefer contracting.     

Off-farm Labor Decisions by Ontario Swine Producers

The off-farm employment decisions of Ontario swine producers are examined using household production theory. It is determined that human capital and farm characteristics have the largest impact on off-farm labor participation. Increases in education are found to have a larger effect on market earnings than on the marginal value productivity of farm labor, thereby increasing the probability of off-farm employment. The chances are also found to increase with an increase in relative financial obligations as measured by the debt-to-equity ratio. Years of farming experience and farm size have a negative impact on the probability of working off-farm due to their positive relationship with marginal farm labor productivity. The results indicate that the trend to a bimodal farm size distribution will likely continue in the Ontario hog industry. Economic policies designed to increase family farm income may help weather fluctuations in farm income but will have little impact on off-farm employment decisions. Les décisions de rechercher un emploi à l'extérieur chez les producteurs de porcs de l'Ontario ont été examinées selon la théorie de la production des ménages. On a constaté que c'est le capital humain et les caractéristiques de l'explotation qui exercent l'effet le plus fort sur le recours au travail extérieur. L'élévation du niveau de scolarité avait plus d'effet sur les gains obtenus à l'extérieur que sur la productivité de la main-d'oeuvre de l'exploitation, augmentant ainsi d'autant la probabilité de rechercher un emploi extérieur. Ces chances augmentaient aussi avec l'accroissement des obligations financières relatives, mesurées par le ratio dette-avoir propre. Le nombre d'années d'expérience en exploitation et la taille de l'entreprise avaient uneffet négatif sur la probabilité de travailler à l'extérieur, à cause de leur association positive avec la productivité marginale de la maind'oeuvre de l'exploitation. Ces résultats indiquent que la tendance à une distribution bimodale de la taille des exploitations devrait se poursuivre dans le secteur de l'élevage du porc en Ontario. Les politiques économiques destinées à améliorer le revenu des fermes familiales devraient les aider à surmonter les périodes de creux, mais elles n'auront que peu d'influence sur la décision de chercher un emploi à l'extérieur.     

Input Substitution,Productivity Performance and Farm Size

This paper develops a theoretical model to examine the relationship between the input elasticity of (technical) substitution and both farm total factor productivity and size. In the presence of ongoing technical change and its factor bias, the ‘income effect’ arising from farms' cost minimising behaviour enables them to increase productivity by saving inputs or, through the dual equivalent, enlarging farm size. As such, farms with higher elasticities of substitution tend to grow larger and become more productive, which provides a new mechanism through which farm heterogeneity in productivity growth can be examined. Empirical evidence from Australian broadacre agriculture supports this theory and points to important policy implications.     

Farm Performance, Direct Payments and EU Enlargement

Farm Performance, Direct Payments and EU Enlargement This article attempts to shed light on the recent performance of farms in the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, contrasting it with the situation in two regions of existing EU Member States as a means for stimulating a debate on the likely nature of agricultural restructuring in an enlarged EU. Data were extracted from FADN surveys and performance is measured in terms of three cost-revenue ratios that vary in terms of the valuation of unpaid land and labour input, and direct budgetary transfers. There is no neat divide between established and new EU Member States in terms of the cost-revenue ratios presented; rather the main differences concern the level of capitalisation and wage rates. The analysis indicates that Hungarian farms have the best prospects amongst the analysed CEECs, which is in contrast to the poor returns and structural problems evident in Poland. In the latter case the returns to own labour and land are exceptionally low and the majority of farms persist through a lack of other employment options and a degree of self-exploitation. To deal with this problem, the stimulation of the non-farm rural economy is paramount but the introduction of CAP first pillar support may hinder structural adjustment. Performance des exploitations, paiements directs et élargissement de l'UE Les performances récentes d'exploitations tchéques, hongroises et polonaises sont ici comparées à celles observées dans deux régions d'Etats membres de l'UE, afin d' éclairer et de stimuler le débat sur les restructurations probables de l'agriculture dans l'UE élargie. Les donnes proviennent du RICA, et les performances sont mesurées par trois rapports coûts/revenus, associés a l' évaluation du travail familial et de la terre en faire-valoir direct, ainsi que par les transferts budgéaires directs. II n'y a pas de différences fondamentales entre les anciens et les nouveaux Européens sous l'angle des trois critéres présentés ici. Les plus sensibles concernent les salaires et le niveau de capitalisation. Dans les PECO, les Hongrois ont les meilleures perspectives de performances, ce qui les oppose aux mauvais résultats et aux problémes structurels des Polonais. Dans ce dernier cas, les rémunérations du travail familial et de la terre en propriété sont exceptionnellement basses. Dans leur majorité, les exploitations ne survivent que du fait de Fabsence d'autré opportunite d'emplois, et grâce à une trés forte auto-exploitation du travail, Dans une telle situation, la stimulation du secteur rural non agricole est essentielle, mais l'introduction des aides associées au premier pilier de la PAC pourrait gêner l'ajustement nécessaire. Wirtschaftlicher Erfolg von Landwirtschaftsbetrie ben, Direktzahiungen und EU-Erweiterung Mit diesem Beitrag soll der wirtschaftliche Erfolg in der jüngeren Vergangenheit von Landwirtschaftsbetrieben in der Tschechischen Republik, Ungarn und Polen beleuchtet werden, indem ein Vergleich mit der Lage in zwei Regionen in bisherigen EU-Mitgliedstaaten gezogen wird, um zu einer Debatte über die mögliche Art und Weise der landwirtschaftlichen Restrukturierung in der erweiterten EU anzuregen. An Hand von Daten aus dem INLB wird der wirtschaftliche Erfolg mit Hilfe von drei Kosten-Erlös-Verhältniszahlen ermittelt, weiche sich im Hinblick auf die Bewertung von nicht entlohntem Boden und Arbeitskräften sowie direkte Einkommensübertragungen unterscheiden. Im Hinblick auf die vorgelegten Kosten-Erlös-Verhältnisse liegt keine Ware Trennlinie zwischen den alten und den neuen EU-Mitgliedstaaten vor; die Hauptunterschiede beziehen sich eher auf die Kapitalverzinsung und die Löhnsatze. Die Analyse ergibt, dass die ungarischen Landwirtschaftsbetriebe von alien untersuchten MOEL die besten Zukunftsaussichten aufweisen, im Gegensatz zu der geringen Verzinsung und den strukturellen Problemen in Polen. Hier 1st die Entlohnung der eigenen Arbeit und des eigenen Landes außergewöhnlich gering, und die überwiegende Anzahl der Betriebe wird nur durch einen Mangel an anderen Beschaßtigungsmöglichkeiten und ein gewisses Maß an Selbstausbeutung aufrecht erhalten. Zur Lösung dieses Problems muss der auißerlandwirtschaftlichen ländlichen Wirtschaft Priorität eingeräumt werden; jedoch könnte die Einführung der Stützung im Rahmen der ersten Säule der GAP die strukturelle Anpassung hemmen.     

环境、农事与耕牛——近代江南地区耕牛的饲育与役用

本文从生态适应性的角度探讨环境、耕牛、人之间的关系。由于受环境的限制,近代江南地区的耕牛数量严重不足。基于此,围绕着耕牛的饲育与役用问题产生了一系列的社会关系与社会过程,受农事节律的影响,这种社会关系与过程又表现出很强的季节性特点：春天是备耕的时节,因而也是耕牛交易的高涨时期,迫于需要,许多农家只好以高利贷的形式赊购耕牛;农忙时分,为保证农业生产的顺利进行,贫穷之家则通过租借等方式以获取牛力投入;农闲时分,为节省饲料等费用,许多农家便把耕牛卖掉。而在这一过程中。小农户表现得尤为明显。     

Vertical Linkages in Agri-Food Supply Chains: Changing Roles for Producers, Commodity Groups, and Government Policy

Market developments arising from closer vertical linkages in agri-food supply chains have given rise to a variety of issues. This paper outlines key issues and discusses possible responses by producers, their associations, and government. A vision of the future organization of agricultural production serves as a basis for discussion. The continued increase in contracting between producers and processors is accompanied by issues of contract transparency, terms, negotiation, and dispute settlement. Other ramifications include producer access to supply chains and the decline of spot markets. Furthermore, the development of agricultural biotechnology products may force a rethinking of the rationale for public investment in agricultural research and development. Evaluation of market power needs to account for efficiency gains from nonstandard forms of organization to achieve a balanced appraisal of the public interest. Agricultural economists are urged to evaluate new forms of firm and industry structure on the basis of how they work in practice rather than in comparison to an ideal form.     

Farm size,land ownership,and fertility in rural Egypt

The purpose of this paper is to present the findings of a household level analysis of land availability and fertility variation among farm families in rural Egypt. Data were drawn from a survey conducted in 2 predominantly rural governorates in Lower Egypt in 1978, Beheira and Kafr El Sheikh. They were purposely selected in an attempt to obtain areas representing a range of socioeconomic and demographic conditions. The analytical model that underlies the study postulates that fertility variation in rural areas is influenced by family access to land for cultivation purposes and the conditions governing that access, as well as socioeconomic and demographic control variables. Among the 561 households sampled, the mean value for land ownership was .47. The mean value for household income measured in Egyptian pounds was 112.83 with a standard deviation of 84.76 pounds. The females had been employed 9.7% of the years since marriage. On the average, women had completed less than 3 months of formal education--.32 years. Access to land cultivation was significantly related to the other variables. Land ownership increased with farm size. Family income was closely linked to cultivated area. Landless laboring families had the lowest fertility. Wives of landless laborers were on the average younger, slightly better educated, and less likely to have worked for wages since marriage. The results support the hypothesis that the amount of land available to the family for cultivation is positively related to fertility. Land ownership was negatively related to children ever born. Per capita family income also exerted a negative influence on the number of children ever born. This indicates that income levels were such that the positive nutrition-induced income effect on fertility does not seem to prevail. Age at marriage was negatively associated with fertility and was statistically significant. The strongest variable was the woman's age.     

Available Field Time, Yield Losses and Farm Planning

A risk progamming model is developed to incorporate explicitly field time availability and yield losses from untimely production into farm planning. The model is applied to eight representative corn-soybean farming operations in Southern Minnesota. Farms were chosen to reflect different machinery and hired labor capacities. The empirical results have quite different implications depending on a farmer's willingness to assume risk. For farmers wishing to avoid large risks, the value of additional spring field capacity is high relative to the fall field capacity. Efforts to avoid problems in scheduling spring field operations are most critical. For farmers willing to accept more risk in anticipation of higher incomes, the value of additional field time is high relative to that of spring field time. Efforts to avoid scheduling problems in the fall are most critical. For any particular farm situation, a manager willing to accept considerable risk should devote a larger percentage of his cropland to soybeans than a manager trying to avoid large risks. L'article présente un modèle de la possibilité de risque tenant compte du temps disponible et la perte de rendement causés par le manque de planification. L'auteur applique le modèle a huit opération agricole de mais et de soja repré-sentatif dans le sud du Minnesota. Ces fermes différaient dans leur emploi de la main d'oeuvre et de la machinerie. Les résultats empiriques ont de différentes implications dépendant si le fermier choisit de courir des risques ou pas. Pour les fermier ne voulant pas courir de risques la valeur marginale du temps disponible pour la semence est plus critique au printemps qu'en automne. Au contraire, pour les fermiers prêt à courir plus de risques en vue de gains futur c'est en automne que le temps des semences devient plus critique. De plus un fermier prêt à courir le risque devrait semer un plus grand pourcentage de sa terre en soja que le fermier ne voulant pas courir de risques.