谨防可能出现的经济滞胀

美国历史上这次最严重的恐怖袭击事件最终将如何影响建筑行业？问题的答案取决于四个关键性的“宏观冲击波”震荡所产生的作用。第一个宏观冲击波是“大炮换黄油”。在反恐怖战争中，政府将大量转移用于“黄油”上的开支（其中包括教育、基础设施建设和保健）。客户主要由航空航天公司和国防公司组成的建筑、工程与建设公司将会业务兴隆，已经签订了建造军用设施合同的公司同样会财源滚滚。然而，那些依靠“黄油”合同过活的公司将面临市场需求逐渐疲软的局面。第二个宏观冲击波是资本外逃。负责风险防范的企业执行官将转移用于建设新厂房、…     

谨防“官场经济”

眼下．我们偶见身边的“公仆”中出现了一些“大款”现象。他们吃穿用讲究高档气派，拥有大额存款外汇．住花园洋房别墅．进出开公家小车，严重损害了党和政府的形象，破坏了党群关系，引起了人民群众的强烈不满。此类怪异的“经济行为”，既不是产品经济、计划经济之类．也不属于商品经济、市场经济之列．笔者称之为“官场经济”，其实质是以权力为手段来谋取私利或借助于组织市场经济活动，谋求官场的进身之阶。究其现象而言，“官场经济”主要有四种类型。     

Regulating coexistence in Europe: Beware of the domino-effect!

In the literature spatial coexistence of genetically modified (GM) and non-GM crops is often regarded as a technical challenge, depending on spatial pollen dispersal and cross-pollination, temporal and spatial distribution and interaction of crops, separation distances and practical measures, but the interaction between economic incentives and costs of coexistence is poorly studied. Europe is currently struggling to implement coherent coexistence regulations in all EU Member States. Since the publication of the European Commission's guidelines in 2003, some Member States have developed, and others are still developing, a diversity of ex ante regulations and ex post liability rules on the coexistence of GM and non-GM crops. In this article, our attention is drawn to ex ante regulations. More specifically, we polarize two alternative ways of regulating spatial coexistence, i.e. rigid minimum distance rules, imposed on GM crop production, versus flexible segregation measures such as buffer zones, leaving more freedom of negotiation between neighboring farmers. We conduct simulations with the software ArcView® on a GIS dataset of a hypothetical case of GM herbicide tolerant oilseed rape cultivation in Central France. Our findings show that rigid coexistence rules, such as large distance requirements, may impose a severe burden on GM crop production in Europe. These rules are not proportional to the farmers' basic economic incentives for coexistence and hence not consistent with the objectives of the European Commission. More alarming, we show that in densely planted areas a domino-effect may occur, a theoretical possibility ignored in the literature. This effect raises coexistence costs and even adds to the non-proportionality of rigid coexistence regulations. Instead, we show that flexible measures would be preferable since they are proportional to the economic incentives for coexistence and, hence, less counterproductive for European agriculture.     

Beware of the crash risk: Tail beta and the cross-section of stock returns in China

We investigate the pricing of systematic tail risk measured by tail beta in the Chinese equity market. Using an array of tests, we examine the performance of more than 3,300 stocks for the years 1999 through 2018. Contrary to evidence from developed markets, we demonstrate a strong negative relationship between the tail beta and future returns. The effect is robust to many considerations and cannot be explained by established pricing factors or alternative risk or illiquidity measures. We link our findings to specific characteristics of the Chinese stock market.     

Three pitfalls in the construction of family-based models of population growth

This paper describes 3 pitfalls in the construction of family-based models of population growth which must be avoided if internal consistency and empirical relevance are to be maintained. Models of the family in which the number as well as the quality of children are subject to choice were pioneered by Becker in 1960 and more recently have served as a base for the theoretical analysis of population size. In these economic models of population, family size and bequests are the outcomes of utility-maximizing family decisions, with the utility of each family viewed as depending on family consumption, family size, and prospective welfare of children, while the age structure of the population is an endogenous variable. All the models are static and focus on the properties of steady states. The 1st pitfall concerns the internal logical consistency of the models and consists in the possibility that the typical family's maximization problem may have no solution, even with a well-behaved concave utility function. The other 2 pitfalls concern the consistency of the model with some "gross facts of life", 1 deriving from the possibility that, even when the family's maximization problem has a solution, the phase diagram for the stock of capital may contain no steady state other than the origin, and the other that even when there exists a non-trivial steady state for the stock of capital, the community may nevertheless face extinction. The 3 pitfalls can be avoided if utility and production functions are subjected to more stringent restrictions than are usually found in economic theory.     

The New Economics of Labor Migration: Beware of Neoclassicals Bearing Gifts

Abstract

Until the emergence of the New Economics of Labor Migration (NELM) in the 1980s, migration scholars were largely divided into two main theoretical camps, viz. the neoclassical and historical-structural approaches to migration. Against this background, the NELM presented itself as a theoretical ‘third way’ between the two latter approaches, and purported to reconcile agency and structure in a way previously unachieved by either of them. While those pretensions gained a fair amount of acceptance and popularity, this paper argues that they are fundamentally misleading, and that the NELM is little more than a slightly more sophisticated avatar of the neoclassical approach to migration, whose fundamental weaknesses it has not, and cannot, shed. This paper further argues that, in so doing, the NELM effectively constitutes migration theory's own instance of economics imperialism, i.e. the attempt to advance the fundamental tenets of neoclassical economics (methodological individualism and the assumption of optimizing rationality) within the context of the study and interpretation of various social phenomena. In order to put forth these arguments, this paper provides a summary presentation of the standard neoclassical theory of migration, the historical-structural heterodoxy and the NELM; highlights why it is that the NELM should be regarded as a ‘reworked’ version of the neoclassical theoretical framework and discusses its inception in the context of the ‘information-theoretic revolution’ in economics; and argues for a new and improved ‘historical-structural synthesis’ as a more satisfactory alternative to both the NELM and the standard neoclassical theory.     

Technological collaboration: problems and pitfalls

There is an increasing trend for interconnections between all nations of the world owing to the widespread globalization of industrial production, inputs sourcing and outputs marketing. A further reason is the raised awareness of global consequences, resulting from natural resources depletion and apparently localized environmental degradation activities by industries. Much of this ever-growing and complex interdependence has been possible as a result of a host of unprecedented technologial achievements in the past few deades, which have enabled industrial enterprises in developed countries to accomplish an increased degree of flexibility, through automated manufacturing, to combine economies of sale, through process standardization, with economies of scope, through product differentiation, and to acheive quicker response times to customers7apos; prefernces and market demands. Simultaneously, in most developing countries, there is also an observable undercurrent of deregulation, privatization or corporatization, and open international market competition for industrial development. In this present era of new internationalism, technology management has become one of the main strategic priorities, because it provides the vital factor underpinning the survival and prosperity of industrial enterprises everywhere. Hence, given the recognition that the key competitive advantage in the international market-place nowadays is the ability of an enterprise continuously to introduce technological innovations faster than others, the need for endogenous technology capacity building can hardly be overmphasized. This paper presents a general framework for the development of a set of technology indicators which could be useful for assesing industrial investment projects funded by an international or national development finance institutino. The framework attempts to integrate business and technology strategies particularly in the context of developing countries. Starting with consideration of the unique characteristics of technolgoy at the firm level, and using a systems analysis approach to the market structure, possible strategic mixed are determined by considering four business stratetgies—price, value, niche and green leadership—and four technology strategies—technology leader, follower, exploiter and extender. The necessary considerations for a technological capability enhancement and palusible technology strategy rogression path are also discussed for different development conditions. The analytical measures presented in this paper are focused on such important aspects as the degree of technology component sophistication, the level of technology capability advancement, the status of technology infrasturcture building, and the dynamism of technology climate, all of which could be used for investment project review and appraisal undertaken by iunternational and national development finance institutions.     

产权改革:谨防非效率资本支配的陷阱

不同资本-市场经济中的赢利能力是不同的,赢利能力较低的国有资本,而赢利能力强的是非公有资本,在执行同股同权的公司制企业中,应当防止形成非效率资本支配效率资本的局面,从而影响产权多元化改革之后经营机制的转变。为此,本提出,在国有企业进行产权多元化改革的过程中,应当坚持以效率资本为主导的原则,要正确理解提高国民经济控制力的要求,要解放思想,对非公有经济的地位、作用应当有一个全面深入的认识,让国有资本在公司制企业中搭其他类型资本的便车。     

Some pitfalls in open economy model building

This paper examines the nature of adjustment paths implied by a popular open macromodel embodying exchange rate expectations. It is shown that the ad hoc expectational scheme utilized in this kind of model may involve it in a rationality paradox if stability is to be preserved. Specifically, the implied exchange rate paths may be such that actual depreciation is accompanied by expected appreciation (and conversely) on a continuing basis.