Interactive expert systems*

The author points out the advantages of using the collective intellect of a group of experts over that of a single expert – combination of disciplines, stimulation of creativity, exploiting intuition. Use of this enhanced problem-solving capacity must also take into account the negatives – conformity, domination, misunderstandings and indiscipline. The author discusses three ways of managing groups of experts: treating them as passive suppliers of precise answers to closed questions (as in conventional expert systems), as active idea-generators responding to openended questions (cf. brainstorming etc.) or, best of all, allowing them to interact constructively either passively or actively depending on the current requirements of the problem-solving process. The role of computer technologies is then to facilitate these interactive group processes, for example by holding the stock of ‘hard’ information, or helping the unhindered provision of individual inputs and permitting collective processing of those inputs towards a problem solution, or providing the technology for predicting the consequences of candidate group-defined solutions. Such assistance would be especially valuable in economic and technological forecasting.     

A methodology for constructing expert systems

Construction of Expert Systems has so far been seen as a craft or an art, not a science. This paper attempts to improve this situation by deducing some aspects of a methodology for constructing Expert Systems from a model of an expert's expertise. It suggests that the traditional methods, based on extracting problem-solving rules from an expert and encoding them directly into a suitable knowledge representation have certain disadvantages, while attempting to extract a causal model from the expert overcomes many of these. The simple Plausible Inference Expert System shell, of which several are now commercially available, is often very suited to the construction of causal models, and some practical issues concerning the construction of causal models are discussed.
The suggested methodology has been found to work in several Expert System projects in I.C.I., though it is still being developed in the light of experience. In particular, the importance of the top-down design of an Expert System is stressed, though it is not yet based on theoretical considerations.     

AI narratives and unequal conditions. Analyzing the discourse of liminal expert voices in discursive communicative spaces

The stories told by expert activists about the relationship between AI and inequality are the focus of this article. It explores internet governance discourse in two fora - RightsCon and Sweden's Internet Days - which, it is argued, comprise a communicative space that is both global and liminal. Narrative analysis is used to map how 30 expert activists from around the world, whose engagement is bound neither to state nor corporate interests, talk about how AI can be understood as a boon or a bane to inequality, both social and communicative. While common themes are in evidence (such as the need to safeguard people's right to own their own data), some noteworthy dissonances are also discernible (such as whether such people should be envisaged as individuals or collectivities). The narratives are critical in that they resist the impetus of rapid, and in some cases unfettered, technological advancement while at the same time pushing back against the apocalyptic AI narratives familiar from popular culture. The study contributes to an understanding of the socio-technico imaginaries of a category of actors who merit more attention than they have been paid by scholars to date. Their expertise grants them authority, and the stories they tell speak of agency.     

A short survey of expert systems in UK business

The paper summarises the results of a survey on behalf of the Alvey Directorate, conducted in 1983—4, of the use made of expert systems in twelve large UK firms. The survey points clearly to the conclusion that firms do not need to start with large state-of-the-art expert systems. A practical and useful entry point is provided by simpler systems, that is, those for which the knowledge base is clear cut, the expert is available and forthcoming, the knowledge is certain, the hypotheses definite and the ancillary data are valid. The author urges influential persons in an institution uncertain whether to use expert systems to make an exploratory entry and observe the results before making a final decision.
The author believes that in the longer term expert systems will have to be designed to interface with 'popular' business language databases and with other systems. He gives some guidelines to relevant developments.     

The power of dimensional analysis in production systems design

Dimensional Analysis (DA) is a well-known methodology in physics, chemistry and other traditional engineering areas. In its simplest form, DA is used to check the meaningfulness of a set of equations (dimensional homogeneity). In the last century, the dimensional theory has been profoundly investigated: its highest achievement is the Buckingham theorem (or pi-theorem), which states that any equation modelling a physical problem can be rearranged in terms of dimensionless ratios, thus saving variables to be handled, and especially enriching the inner physical knowledge of the studied phenomenon.In this paper we investigate how DA can be applied to Operations Management (OM) topics and which benefits it can bring to researchers in this area. A literature review is performed to clarify the main operative issues regarding DA application (assumptions and limitations); then existing applications of DA to OM are explored, pointing out that few researchers have tried to apply this methodology in the OM research field.Stemming from this analysis, we applied the pi-theorem to the design of a Flexible Manufacturing System. A complex problem, requiring 13 dimensional quantities to be expressed, is first studied via simulation; then DA is applied, reducing the number of variables to 9 dimensionless ratios. The reduced problem has a suitable size to be analytically explored and a regression model is formulated which, compared with the simulation study, offers the same precision in analysing the FMS behaviour, being more compact and powerful. This application shows the potential of DA in OM research, and will hopefully draw the attention of researches to this powerful, but unfamiliar and therefore neglected, methodology.     

Introduction to expert systems and potential ammonia plant applications

A conceptual approach for applying expert systems to ammonia plants, on an off-line basis, is discussed. These systems can be used for plant problem diagnostics, operator training, safety studies, and risk analysis.     

Exploring the role of expert power in channel management: An empirical study

Expert power is recognized as a non-coercive source of power, which can be effectively employed in the context of channel management. The paper attempts of look at the impact of expert power on certain channel relationship variables. The behavioral variables considered in the study are the use of behavior-based coordination strategy, use of problem-solving approach for conflict resolution, collaborative communication, cooperation and trust. An empirical study conducted among the computer hardware dealers in India supports the hypothesized linkages between expert power and other relationship variables.     

Value-creation-capture-equilibrium in new product development alliances: A matter of coopetition,expert power,and alliance importance

Alliances are often thought to be longer lasting and lead to better results when they are perceived as equal and fair in terms of how efforts and rewards are distributed. This study conceptualizes the value-creation-capture-equilibrium (VCCE) as the relative inputs and efforts made by alliance partners to create and capture innovation-related value. We seek to better understand the determinants of the VCCE in dyadic new product development (NPD) alliances. We focus on three factors from a focal firm's perspective: (1) the coopetition intensity with the alliance partner (i.e. simultaneous competition and collaboration), (2) the expert power of the alliance partner, and (3) the relative importance of the particular NPD alliance. We hypothesize that coopetition intensity stabilizes the VCCE. Furthermore, we assume that the partner's expert power and the focal firm's relative alliance importance negatively moderate the relationship between coopetition intensity and the VCCE. Based on a dataset of N = 471 NPD alliances of high-tech firms, we find partial support for our hypotheses and contribute towards a better understanding of the factors influencing the VCCE in NPD alliances.     

苏拉:彰显科枝的力量专访苏拉纺织系统(苏州)有限公司总经理徐林峰先生

<中国纺织>:苏拉宣称苏拉成功要素之一就是技术革新领先,那么苏拉如何看待技术创新在市场竞争中的重要性?苏拉怎样做到在纺纱设备技术创新方面始终保有绝对优势?     

The use of co-nomination to identify expert participants for Technology Foresight

The United Kingdom has been carrying out a major exercise in the field of Technology Foresight, involving fifteen panels engaged in wide consultation about the future of their areas. The objectives of the Programme are to help set priorities for publicly funded science and technology and to create new working partnerships between science and industry. The paper describes the process by which members of the panels, and those whom they subsequently consulted, were identified. A survey-based technique known as co-nomination was employed, whereby respondents were asked to identify suitable participants and at the same time to profile their own expertise. The process was repeated with those nominated. The patterns of expertise thus revealed are themselves of interest and are used to construct a map of the inter-relationship between the fields covered by the panels.     

The power of imperfect imitation

We examine the power and limitations of imitation. Naive intuition may hold that the efficacy of imitation would be diminished by imperfections in copying high‐performing firms. Employing a computational model, we study the dynamics of imitation when firms are subject to bounded rationality that limits their ability to copy the market leader. We find that imperfect imitation can generate unexpectedly good outcomes for follower firms—indeed, better than the outcomes achieved if they were perfect imitators. Moreover, imperfect imitation, from time to time, enables follower firms to surpass superior firms. These findings suggest there is an adaptive role to mechanisms, such as bounded rationality, that make perfect imitation difficult. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The power of local information

The author argues that telecommunications efforts too often tend to stress distant connections. The local informative contacts are important, and should be given a chance in future systems. The argument presented to support this view includes the specific example of the TERESE project (Telecommunications and Rural Development in Sweden). This publically funded project uses narrowband communication, including computer conferencing, to stress economic and social identity in a region in the far north of Sweden. Details of continuing regional efforts are given.     

湖南芷江七里桥电站导流设计与施工实践

本文结合工程实例论述了中小型电站导流设计和施工的全过程,从导流标准选择、围堰设计、防渗形式、施工实践效果等方面进行了阐述。该案例采用的施工工艺对解决防渗问题,节约经济成本有一定的参考价值。     

德国可再生能源电力的发展

德国可再生能源的发展在人类能源使用历史上具有里程碑式的意义,这是人类从利用化石能源到摆脱化石能源的一种理性的回归.德国为实现能源转型,确定了可再生能源发展的阶段性目标,按照欧盟的指令,从立法、资金、政策支持等多方面加大了扶持力度,取得了良好效果.德国可再生能源的发展也带来了整个电力市场相关行业的利益调整,未来还有许多有待处理的问题.德国的经验和做法为中国的产业改革尤其是电力市场改革和发展提供了有益借鉴.     

电力技术经济学的建立与发展

文中就电力技术经济学的学科性质,研究对象及任务,电力技术经济学与其它学科的关系,电力技术经济争研究内容与研究方法作了较为深入的阐述,并提出了该学科建立与发展的重要性。     

中国电子企业走出去竞争力分析

华为和中兴通过优质低价策略成为欧洲主流运营商的设备供应商, 联想通过收购IBM PC部门成为全球个人电脑行业的第三大供应商, 海尔通过在30多个国家建立本土化的设计制造基地跻身世界知名品牌,