我国财政货币政策有效性问题研究

本文基于模糊层次分析法构建一个综合指标变量用以刻画宏观经济形势,并在构建的计量模型中同时引进高次项和滞后项以充分发掘宏观经济政策作用。实证结果表明：财政政策在短期内能够达到较好效果,货币政策与该指标变量之间呈现倒U型关系。     

THE STANDARD OF LIVING IN THE UNITED STATES

A common approach to the evaluation of the standard of living is based on a function of real income. In the United States this often takes the form of CPI-deflated mean household income. Material well-being is more appropriately evaluated using a consumption-based index. Using data from the Consumer Expenditure Surveys we find that real mean income provides an inaccurate representation of the level and trend of the standard of living relative to real per equivalent total expenditure in the postwar United States. The differences between real income and real total expenditure per household equivalent member are found at all levels of aggregation.     

EFFECTIVENESS OF MONETARY POLICY IN SWEDEN

We study whether the sensitivity of Swedish interest rates to domestic economic news was affected by the zero lower bound (ZLB) and forward guidance. We find that the sensitivity was reduced at the ZLB at short but not at longer maturities, suggesting that monetary policy remained effective at longer horizons. Moreover, it was unaffected during a later period of the ZLB/negative policy rates, suggesting that monetary policy remained effective at all horizons then. We also find that the sensitivity of interest rates to domestic news was unaffected by forward guidance, suggesting that market participants understood the conditionality of the forward guidance. (JEL E52, E58)     

RE-EXAMINING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF STABILISATION POLICY

This paper develops an alternative international macroeconomic model for evaluating the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy in stabilising national income under fixed and floating exchange rates. It encompasses national output and income, saving, investment, money and capital flows and linkages between the exchange rate, price levels and real interest rates consistent with international parity conditions. It demonstrates that the nature of government spending is pivotal to the effectiveness of fiscal policy, revealing that, ceteris paribus , higher public consumption expenditure contracts national income and depreciates the exchange rate, whereas higher productive public investment spending has opposite effects. The framework also shows that the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy as macroeconomic policy instruments is not ultimately dependent on the exchange rate regime.     

中国的最低工资对就业的影响

最低工资制度是政府通过法律手段保障低工资工人的收入、维护劳动者最基本的权益而对劳动力市场进行人为干预的一种政策选择,它对就业的影响引起了人们的广泛争议。本文利用我国2000-2010年30个省市自治区的面板数据,以最低工资制度最为直接的影响人群--其他人员的就业作为研究对象,采用可行的广义最小二乘（FGLS）方法考察了该制度对我国就业的影响。实证研究的结果表明,我国的最低工资水平相对于社会平均工资每提高10%,其他人员的就业在社会总就业中的比重下降约为23%,敏感性分析和动态回归把弹性范围扩大到-009~-029,这与国际上早期的时间序列研究的结论基本一致,这表明我国的最低工资制度对我国其他人员的就业产生了负面影响。     

湖南农村居民小康实现程度分析

农村居民达到小康水平是全面实现小康的关键,也是今后需要重点解决的问题。由于区域经济发展的不平衡导致湖南农村的小康发展进程不一致,通过对湖南省农村小康进程的实证分析,并结合区域特征提出了农村小康建设的几点建议。     

BANK EFFICIENCY AND THE EFFECTIVENESS OF MONETARY POLICY

Advances in information technology and bank consolidation have altered the way banks operate by necessitating that banks control costs and provide services efficiently to remain competitive. Given the unique role bank operations play in the transmission of monetary policy, a key unresolved question is whether bank efficiency alters monetary policy outcomes. Using a stochastic frontier approach to measure cost‐efficiency and panel data of U.S. bank balance sheets, we show that banks with greater cost‐efficiency are more sensitive to monetary shocks. (JEL E52, E44, E51)     

人口结构调整对我国城镇居民消费的影响

本文通过我国31个省的城镇居民消费结构数据,利用扩展线性支出系统（ELES）,分析了人口结构调整对我国居民消费结构的影响。研究结果表明：（1）随着老龄化程度的加深,社会总抚养系数的提高会增加人们基本生活支出;（2）从边际消费倾向来看,虽然未来我国居民消费结构升级表现为娱乐文化和教育等支出的提高,但是因老龄化引起的社会总负担系数的提高很可能对该部分的消费产生挤压;（3）家庭耐用品、交通通信和娱乐文化教育的收入弹性大于1,未来消费结构优化的重点也应当增加其贡献,提高我国居民的消费潜力。     

中国城镇职工实物收入下降的原因分析

为了解释实物收入在八十年代普遍存在而到九十年代趋于消失的现象,我们给出了两种假说:一种是改革前期消费品市场不完备,集体采购具有优势;另一种是在政府控制工资的情形下,发实物工资是企业规避工资管制的策略。利用1988、1995和1999年城镇住户调查所作的实证分析倾向于支持第二种假设。     

“东北振兴”以来东北地区区域政策评价研究

回顾了2003年东北振兴战略实施以来国家针对东北地区出台的主要区域政策。财税和金融支持是东北振兴的重要外力,产业发展和企业改革是东北振兴的主体和关键。时间上政策出台年际波动性较大,空间上以面向全区政策为主。区域政策在经济发展、结构调整、社会效益和体制创新等方面取得明显成效。但也存在两类问题:政策执行过程中,政策力度不够、政策难以落实等;政策制定和执行后,包括政策的项目和国企指向等。未来东北地区区域政策的重点应强调四个方面内容:产业结构优化升级与国企改革,省际区增长极与产业空间布局,社会和谐发展与基础设施建设,改革开放与区域合作机制建设。     

THE DISTRIBUTION OF WEALTH IN URBAN CHINA AND IN CHINA AS A WHOLE IN 1995

The composition, inequality and determinants of wealth among households in urban China in 1995 are studied. In addition, we compare the wealth distribution in urban China with the wealth distribution in rural China and present the first estimates of inequality in the distribution of household wealth in China as a whole. The results show that housing wealth makes up a large part of net worth in urban China. Most urban Chinese households keep a bank account; debts are unusual. A household's net worth is strongly related to its income and location. Net worth is more unequally distributed among urban households than among rural households. However, compared to the situation in most industrialized countries, net worth in urban China and in China as a whole appear to be rather equally distributed.     

东京城市土地利用结构分析及其对中国大城市的启示

基于信息熵的基本原理,计算了东京23区以及市部和岛部的信息熵和均衡度,分析了其土地利用与产业发展的关系。对中国十大城市的信息熵和均衡度进行讨论,通过各城市之间以及与东京的土地利用比较发现,我国城市在工业用地比例上明显偏高,城市的土地利用应当与城市的经济发展和功能定位密切结合,充分发挥城市的级差地租优势。     

EXPLAINING THE SAVING PUZZLES IN URBAN CHINA

This paper identifies two saving puzzles obtained from the Chinese Urban Household Survey data from 1990 to 2006. The first saving puzzle is identified by the time trend of household saving rates, which were stable before 1998, but surged subsequently. The second saving puzzle is associated with the various age profiles of household saving rates, which are not only inconsistent with the prediction of the Life Cycle Hypothesis, but also different from the patterns observed in other economies. This paper constructs pseudo‐panel data and empirically examines the applicability of the habit‐formation model in solving the second saving puzzle through the existence of saving rates and the effects of income‐related variables. On the other hand, the parametric changes of such variables help explain the first saving puzzle. The parametric changes possibly stem from the adjustment of habit stock, the rising transitory shocks of income, and the higher expenditure needs for housing.     

新时期城市基准地价更新与应用问题研究

文章分析了目前我国城市土地利用和管理的特征，提出城市土地定级应当与时俱进，进行研究思路的合理调整，对城市土地定级与城市规划的关系，城市土地分类定级研究的重点进行了探讨。以城市土地定级为基础，对不同的城市土地定级途径的基准地价更新方法进行了具体的阐述，对基准地价应用的方向进行了详细的讨论。     

城市性质与酒店业发展模式关系

伴随着中国旅游产业化和市场化进程的加速,中国城市酒店的发展模式正面临着整体变革,酒店业发展的本质属性使得不同性质城市酒店发展出现不同模式。文章以三类性质的城市为基础,深入研究了中国不同职能城市的酒店发展模式,即东部特大城市的"两极化总部"发展模式、中西部省会和新兴旅游城市的"经济型"发展模式以及专业镇经济发展起来的特殊城市的"东莞"发展模式,并对其模式产生原因及其演变进行了研究。