Trade Propensities and Foreign Ownership Shares in Indonesian Manufacturing

This paper examines the relationship between trade propensities and foreign ownership shares in Indonesian manufacturing in 1992 and 1994. Foreign plants had relatively high trade propensities, and plants with high foreign ownership shares had the highest export propensities. Differences in import propensities among foreign ownership groups were relatively small. It might be argued that trade propensities determine foreign ownership shares in Indonesia, which historically waives foreign ownership restrictions for firms that export much of their output. However, this paper argues that causation runs from foreign ownership shares to trade propensities, because multinational firms have strong incentives to restrict access by uncontrolled affiliates to their international marketing networks, and because the relationship persists even when the effects of policy distortions are accounted for. Correspondingly, ownership restrictions that discriminate among foreign ownership groups are likely to reduce the exports of foreign multinational affiliates, but to have a much weaker effect on imports.     

Insolvency Reform and the Indonesian Financial Crisis

Treatments of Indonesia's financial crisis customarily focus on exchange rate collapse, neglecting the question of why enterprises were so highly leveraged beforehand. This article reviews controlling shareholder-debtor behaviour both before and during the crisis. It then examines Indonesia's emergency bankruptcy legislation effective August 1998—which enjoys a mixed record in implementation—and articulates bankruptcy policy principles for the replacement legislation now being drafted. Progress on the insolvency front has been limited to a relatively small number of voluntary debt reorganisations. Early indications are that such restructurings largely take the form of debt rescheduling rather than debt-equity swaps, loan write-offs, or other approaches that would lessen enterprises' heavy leveraging. This outcome reflects problems in creditor as well as debtor preferences. What began as a private sector insolvency problem increasingly overlaps with efforts to address general banking sector difficulties. Further, nationalism questions complicate the resolution of insolvencies.     

服务贸易的发展:上海的经验

本文从服务贸易的发生方式以及中国入世关于服务贸易具体承诺的角度，分析了上海服务贸易发展的经验与未来态势。文章认为：(1)在中国的具体承诺减让中，上海的许多服务部门(尤其是“商务服务”、“通信服务”、“分销服务”、“金融服务”、“旅游及与旅行相关的服务”等)都被放在全国开放的前列。(2)在服务贸易“商业存在”模式方面，外资投资从以前的一般加工业逐渐扩展至服务业领域。但在服务业中，房地产业的外资比重最高。这意味着，外资在上海服务业内部的投向仍需作进一步的引导和优化。(3)由于经济发展阶段的差异，上海在国际服务贸易发展的很多方面与其他国际大都市相比还存在相当大的差距。而且，上海在服务贸易的出口方面或服务业“走出去”方面做得还很不够，“引进来的”远远多于“走出去的”，“引进来”和“走出去”很不对称。(4)上海“一个龙头，四个中心”建设与服务贸易的发展息息相关。为此，文章提出以下建议：深刻认识到服务业和服务贸易在发展上海城市经济、提高城市综合竞争力和现代化水平等方面的重要作用，树立“大服务”观念；紧紧抓住中国加入WTO的契机，对服务业与服务贸易进行改革，使其直面竞争与开放，切实增强服务贸易的国际竞争力；大力推进服务贸易的结构调整；优化服务贸易发展的环境。     

Trade, foreign firms and economic policy in Indonesian and Thai manufacturing

This paper first examines the rapid growth and changing composition of manufactured exports in Indonesia and Thailand, highlighting the rapid growth of office and computer machinery and electric machinery, somewhat slower growth of non-electric and transportation machinery, as well as the low growth of previously large exports of textiles apparel. Second, the important contributions of foreign multinational enterprises (MNEs) to export growth in the machinery industries, particularly in electric, office, and computing machinery, are documented. Third, the paper describes trade policies in all these industries in some detail, emphasizing how low protection was a key facilitator of rapid export growth in the MNEs that dominated the electric, office, and computing machinery industry, while high protection reduced incentives to export among MNEs in the transportation machinery industry.     

应对贸易摩擦的国际经验和中国选择

2003年中国已经成为世界第三大贸易国。随着中国在世界贸易中地位的提高、出口的扩大,中国融合世界经济的程度加深,贸易摩擦频繁发生,不仅数量增加(从1979年―2004年5月底,遭遇“二反一保”及特保调查的数量高达637起,[1]成为世界上遭遇反倾销最多的国家)、领域扩大(由农产品、纺织品、化工产品等传统产业扩大到机电产品、半导体等高新技术产品)、涉案产品数量增加(多达4000多种产品)、涉案国家增多(除了美国、欧盟和澳大利亚等发达国家外,近年来与发展中国家贸易摩擦的数量越来越多)、贸易保护的手段多样化(综合运用反倾销、反补贴、保障措…     

Interindustry Linkages in Indonesian Manufacturing 1

Deepening and strengthening of the industrial structure one of the prionties of industrial development in Indonesia. In this article, data from input-output tables have been used to examine the interindustry structure of the Indonesian non-oil manufacturing sector. Analysis of structural changes in manufacturing shows thaf exports have become the main engine of growth for the non-oil manufacturing sector. It is also found that this development is not inconsistent with the integration of the manufacturing sector in the economy, as manufactured exports on the whole are characterised by strong backward linkages. Furthermore, the analysis reveals that manufactured exports make significant contribution to employment, because both direct and total labour intensities of Indonesia's expomng sectors are relatively high.     

Indonesian Agricultural Development: The Awkward Case of Smallholder Tree Crops 1

The problems of transforming smallholder tree crops from traditional low-yielding to modern high-yielding technology are examined, using a meta production function approach to analyse the changes. The role of government in transformation is considered, and various ‘individual’ and ‘black’ improvement schemes implemented since the 1950s are analysed. Many of these schemes have not teen successful owing to poor planning and inadequate managerial and financial support, and their coverage has been small in relation to the huge areas needing improvement. The paper suggests a more modest ‘dispasal’ approach to transformation, concerned with setting up nurseries to provide better quality planting material and advice to individual fanners. But even this revised approach should be carefully planned and executed light of previous mistakes if it is to have widespread impact.     

城市房地产税费改革：国际经验及政策建议

概要归纳中国现行房地产税费制度,就中国现行房地产税费制度存在的问题,分城市土地管理制度、农地征用制度和房地产税费制度三个方面进行整理和分析,厘清目前存在的主要问题及其症结所在,在借鉴国际经验与前人研究成果的基础上,提出对未来不动产税制改革方向的初步意见。     

对外直接投资与贸易品技术结构提升:韩国的经验及启示

本文基于韩国近20年来的经验数据分析证实,韩国通过对外直接投资实现了要素的全球优化配置,从而为贸易品技术结构提升创造了条件。     

Developing country product choice: Footwear in Ethiopia

Footwear manufacture offers opportunities for factor substitution both for the manufacture of given products and across products. This paper contains an inter-product comparison between six synthetic projects employing mixes of techniques previously identified as being least-cost for Ethiopian factor prices. The projects are designed to produce identical output volumes. It is argued that choices between projects to make products that are not perfect substitutes for each other should not be based on a single criterion such as present values or the sizes of the capital investments. Rather a range of criteria should be considered. A number of these are examined and a possible strategy for the Ethiopian footwear industry is suggested.     

中国钢铁业应对贸易保护的战略选择

由于长期以来生产规模的盲目扩大,中国的钢铁企业供需严重失衡,结构也不合理;加之金融危机的影响,钢材的国内和国际需求进一步下降。与此同时,多个国家又出台了带有贸易保护色彩的政策,无疑使我国钢铁业本来就严峻的形势更加恶化。为此,我国钢铁企业应积极主动地应对国际贸易保护主义造成的危害,利用这个过渡期加快产业整合力度,以使钢铁产业结构更加科学合理。     

The Volume and Price of Indonesian Exports, 1823 To 1940: The Long-Term Trend and its Measurement 1

This article is concerned with indices of export volume and prices in Indonesia from 1823 to 1940. It discusses the sources from which the quantitative information on exports is derived. Previous indices are shown and their shortcomings are considered. Next, Laspeyres quantity indices and Paasche unit value and price indices for agricultural and total exports are presented. These indices are based on fixed weights for eight sub-periods. The paper also discusses the features and shortcomings of the more sophisticated Divisia index, and concludes with some remarks on the long-term trend of exports from Indonesia.     

河南国有外贸公司改制问题的症结与思考

河南国有外贸公司在改制过程中遇到了一系列问题,生存现状堪忧。针对其国有资产和人才资源流失、发展方向模糊、法人治理结构不完善等问题,文章认为,应从其经营模式、产权和管理机制等方面着手,发挥政府作用,审时度势走工贸结合一体化道路。