Some Obscurities in Indonesia's New National Accounts

Indonesia's national accounts are subject to regular revisions. Some of these revisions have resulted in different estimates of GDP on both the output and the expenditure side of the economy in overlapping years. Unfortunately, the explanations accompanying the published national accounts make it difficult to understand the exact reasons why this is so. This article explores the possible explanations. It also discusses the consequences of changes to the base year used in the calculation of constant price series. The paper draws attention to several new national accounting initiatives developed at Indonesia's Central Statistics Agency that underscore the Agency's advanced professionalism in national accounting. It concludes with a call for greater openness in explaining national accounting procedures.     

Indonesia's new national accounts

This note addresses some of the main changes in Indonesia's national accounts, from 2000. These have resulted in higher estimates of GDP and slightly higher rates of GDP growth. The changes are part of a regular cycle of revisions and improvements in national accounting by the central statistics agency, BPS. On the output side, the higher level of GDP in 2000 is mainly due to upward revisions of value added in manufacturing industry, banking and trade. On the expenditure side, the higher level is mainly due to an upward revision of exports and the introduction of an estimate of investment in inventories. The choice of a new base year has resulted in higher weights for sectors with relatively high growth. This explains the higher rates of total GDP growth during 2000–03.     

Indonesia's Clean Air Program

Unprecedented industrial development during the last two decades, accompanied by a growing population, has increased the amount of environmental damage in Indonesia. A critical environmental problem is the rising level of air pollution in several large cities. This has stimulated the government to develop a national program designed to control the quantity of pollutantsin the air. However, the program's impact on economic performance and incomes has not yet been studied systematically. This paper analyses the expected impact of the clean air program on national economic performance and household incomes for various socio-economic groups.     

Indonesia's new deposit guarantee law

The blanket guarantee introduced in 1998 in response to the emerging banking and economic crisis resulted in $50?billion of losses to the general public. The government has now introduced a law that allows the phasing out of this blanket guarantee, but also allows its reinstatement in the event of a threatened collapse of the banking system. Rather than eliminating the possibility of any repetition of the previous banking disaster, the new law effectively mandates an almost identical approach to handling system-wide banking collapses in the future, suggesting that the authorities and their advisers learned very little from the recent bitter experience. It is argued here that the crucial starting point for formulating policy in this field is to specify correctly the exact purpose that government intervention is intended to serve: namely, the avoidance of major macroeconomic disruption as a result of bank failures.     

美国银行法改革探析

20世纪80年代以来,以放公管制为特征的金融自由化改革在主要发达国家不断深化,美国世纪末的银行法改革具有划时代意义,它将开辟世界范围的银行业、保险业和证券业混业经营的新纪元。然而此次银行法改革的核心内容,正是30年代金融管制体系建立时期所刻意强调的。本文回顾30年代金融服务业分业经营体系建立的背景,及此后金融管制理论的变革,分析80年代以来美国银行法改革的动因,以及世纪末金融服务现代化法案的主要内容和影响。     

金融改革的新起点：利率市场化

利率作为经济运行中灵敏的经济杠杆,有许多重要功能,这些功能在发达的市场经济国家产生了理想的效果,可是在我国的运用却一直不尽人意.这并不是利率功能本身失效,而是我国不具备利率发挥作用的条件.要使利率在经济运行中发挥有效的、灵敏的调节杠杆作用,就必须推行利率的市场化.     

Indonesia's Industrial Transformation 1 Part I

It is now possible to obtain a fairly complete picture of Indonesian industril development, based on the 1986 Economic Census and subsequent Updates, the mcorporation of the huge oil and gas sector, and die earlier industrial data base. The picture is one of dramatic growth and transformation since the late 1960s when Indonesia was one of the least industrialised countries for its size. In this paper we examine the pattern and changing structure of industry, focusing on industry composition, regional industrialisation, ownership, scale and wages. Indonesia's industrial transformation is evident not only in rapid Output and employment growth, but also in the transition to more capital and skill-intensive industries, a narrowing in the earlier very large (almost ‘dualistic’) productivity differentials, strong productivity and wage growth, a broadening of the industrial base outside Java, and a probable reduction in concentration levels (at least by establishment).     

我国银行风险防范面临的新问题与政策建议

央行超级网银即将正式推出,商业银行网上支付渠道将面临更为严峻的系统或技术风险、运营管理风险和声誉风险等风险考验,因此,必须通过严格签约管理,加强客户身份认证,在兼顾客户体验的前提下设置限制性的交易机制,努力提高银行IT系统安全性能,增强系统防攻击和防窃取能力,有针对性地进行防范.     

香港如何在内地新一轮金融开放中发挥作用

内地新一轮金融对外开放的核心,在于推动资本项目开放。这一核心,决定了香港与内地金融领域的互动,将表现出一系列新特点。针对目前香港与内地实现良性金融互动的诸多障碍,对香港如何配合内地新一轮金融对外开放提出了相关建议,认为香港可以利用集资中心功能和营运环境优势,配合内地金融改革;可以积极发展人民币离岸业务,为人民币实现自由兑换提供试验场;可以发挥地区金融中心功能,衔接内地与境外金融市场。     

The Sustainability of Indonesia's Upland Conservation Projects

The Upland Agricultural and Conservation Project in Central and East Java is representative of Indonesia's upland conservation efforts. An important component of the project was the use of subsidies to promote activities which increased farmer incomes and soil conservation. Two types of subsidies were used: an operating subsidy for annual inputs such as seed, fertiliser and pesticides; and a capital subsidy for terracing and related construction. This study measures the extent to which the effects of the subsidies were sustained over varying periods following termination of the project. The results show that the effects of the operating subsidies are clearly not sustainable; the effects of the capital subsidies may persist longer, but they too are probably not sustainable.     

Institutional determinants of Indonesia's sugar trade policy

An analysis of contemporary sugar trade policy in Indonesia highlights problems in the institutional framework for trade policy making. The institutions through which sugar trade policy is formulated entrench the interests of rent-seeking bureaucrats, import licence holders and traders to the detriment of consumers and downstream producers of processed products. Moreover, the resulting trade policy regime has problematic effects on sugarcane farmers. The structure of regulatory intervention is due less to democratic pressures than to the inclusion of vested interests in the institutions that formulate policy. Further, the lack of effective mechanisms for inter-ministerial coordination and for resolving conflicting policy preferences among ministries hinders the development of coherent trade policy and obstructs reform efforts. An institutional framework that facilitates representation of all interests affected by sugar trade policies and public scrutiny of the effects of policy intervention is likely to deliver better outcomes for consumers and producers alike.     

Indonesia's Crisis: Implications for the Region

What began as a currency crisis in Indonesia in the third quarter of 1997 rapidly turned into a deep financial crisis with wide-ranging economic and social impacts, and finally became a serious political crisis that exploded in May 1998, forcing President Soeharto to resign. Soeharto's departure, however, did not resolve the crisis. He left behind an economy in shambles, a serious political vacuum and a highly polarised society. The issues to be dealt with are wide-ranging, including the loss of Indonesia's position in the international system, the domination of industry by foreign capital and the imposition by the IMF of a certain model of economic development. Regional and international aspects of the crisis have not become an issue in the public debate and policy discourse in Indonesia. This article looks at these implications.     

聚焦新婚姻法

即将颁布的婚姻法是在1980年颁布的婚姻法基础上,根据20年来的经验,特别是改革开放以来婚姻家庭领域出现的新情况、新问题而修订的。 随着改革开放的逐步深入,中国完成了从传统的计划经济向社会主义市场经济的转变,社会的经济形式、物质利益的分配和就业方式呈现多元化趋势,这些变化对人们的思想价值取向和婚姻家