Macroeconomic stability in a flexible labor market

This paper examines the relationship between labor market flexibility and macroeconomic stability from a post‐Keynesian perspective. Considering two aspects of labor market flexibility, employment flexibility and real wage flexibility, I adopt the flex–output model to discuss employment flexibility and extend it by incorporating real wage dynamics induced from a wage–price Phillips curve to discuss real wage flexibility. Simulation of the model suggests that employment flexibility possibly increases instability of an economy whereas real wage flexibility reduces it.     

ENTRY AND EXIT OF FIRMS AND UNDEREMPLOYMENT EQUILIBRIUM

This paper extends the standard Keynesian model of aggregate demand and supply allowing for imperfect competition, variable returns to scale, and entry and exit of firms. It distinguishes three phases of macroeconomic equilibria, stagnant, expansive and contractive, according to whether the number of firms is fixed or endogenously determined by the position of the aggregate demand curve. Using this model we show that a large shift in the aggregate demand affects the structure of the economy irreversibly and that the real wage or labor productivity may move procyclically rather than anticyclically. We also elucidate the asymmetric effects of fiscal and monetary policies on the entry of firms and employment.     

Wage Hikes as Supply and Demand Shock

Wage hikes affect production costs and hence are usually analysed as supply shocks. There is a long‐standing debate, however, about demand effects of wage variations. In this paper, we bring together these two arguments in a Kaldorian model with group‐specific saving rates and a production technology that allows for redistribution between workers and entrepreneurs following a wage hike. We thereby pinpoint the conditions under which (a) wage variations affect aggregate demand and (b) the positive demand effects of wage hikes may even overcompensate the negative supply effects on aggregate employment (‘purchasing power argument’). We conclude by noting that, whereas demand effects are very likely to occur, the conditions under which the purchasing power argument does indeed hold are very unrealistic.     

THE PROFIT–INVESTMENT–UNEMPLOYMENT NEXUS AND CAPACITY UTILIZATION IN A STOCK‐FLOW CONSISTENT MODEL

This paper studies under which conditions the share of profit in value‐added, financial constraints on investment and capital shortage may foster unemployment and may limit the growth of capital and/or the growth of aggregate demand, in a stock‐flow consistent model. The efficiency of demand‐side versus supply‐side economic policies (decrease of the real interest rate and/or of the real wage, increase of the leverage ceiling constraint) depends on capital shortage and credit rationing, which are not necessarily simultaneous due to the effects of investment on aggregate demand and supply.     

Redistribution of Trade Gains in the Presence of Firm and Worker Heterogeneity

Trade gains are unequally distributed; in particular, low‐ability workers lose out in terms of wages and employment probability. In this paper, we investigate the impact of redistribution schemes on aggregate and disaggregate variables. To this end, we built a trade model with trade unions, heterogeneous firms and workers. Three redistribution schemes are distinguished: unemployment benefits financed by either a wage tax, a payroll tax or a profit tax. We find that: (i) all three redistribution schemes reduce output per capita; (ii) but the marginal reduction is lowest in the wage tax funding scenario; and (iii) If the profit tax is used, labour demand for low‐ability workers increases.     

Customer Markets,Inflation and Unemployment in a Dynamic Model with a Range of Equilibria

The paper presents a dynamic model incorporating a range of non‐accelerating‐inflation rates of unemployment (NAIRU) obtained according to the theoretical framework proposed by the customer markets literature. The analysis of the dynamic adjustments of unemployment and inflation emphasizes the real effects of demand shocks. Changes in the fiscal and monetary policy can exert permanent effects on output and unemployment, both determining persistence in the unemployment rate and selecting the actual steady‐state equilibrium within the NAIRU range.     

Inequality,Mobility, Real Earnings,and Real Anger

Understanding the anger among the electorate right now requires an examination of the relevant economic trends. Inequality has increased and real wage growth has been limited for the median worker, as the relationship between productivity and wages has broken down. Measures of wealth inequality have outstripped those for incomes. Higher levels of inequality are correlated with less upward mobility over the life span, have potential costly macro-growth impacts, and contribute to “sticky” poverty rates which hurt child outcomes. Even in recent decades, though, periods of full employment have seen advances in real earnings. Thus, to reconnect growth and more broadly shared prosperity we need full employment, better-targeted manufacturing policy, a strengthened safety net, a higher minimum wage, access to quality preschool, and reduced mobility barriers.     

Technical Change and a Falling Wage Share if Profits are Maintained

In the framework of a multi-sectoral and fixed-coefficients Leontief model with capital stock matrix B, the paper addresses the issue of the impact of technical change on income distribution. Comparing two steady-state positions, it is shown that with cost-reducing, capital-using and (uniformly) labour-saving technical change the equilibrium rate of profit will fall, if it is the aggregate wage share which remains fixed, not the absolute level of the real wage. Conversely, the wage share falls if the profit rate does not change. The reactions are ambiguous if, instead of the coefficients of the matrix B, the coefficients of the input–output matrix A increase.     

POST‐KEYNESIAN EFFECTIVE DEMAND AND CAPITAL–LABOUR SUBSTITUTION

This paper analyses the relationship between the real wage rate and employment when we induce capital–labour substitution within a Post‐Keynesian Kaleckian model. To avoid the over‐determinacy problem, we consider a non‐homogeneous production function and cost minimization, in contrast to recent work that assumed a homogeneous production function and profit maximization. As a result, we find not only that increasing returns to scale are important in sustaining the long‐run stability condition, but also that if the increasing returns to scale are small, then it is more likely that employment will increase.     

IS THE NAIRU THEORY A MONETARIST,NEW KEYNESIAN,POST KEYNESIAN OR A MARXIST THEORY?

The NAIRU (non‐accelerating inflation rate of unemployment) theory has become the mainstream theory in explaining unemployment in Europe and is often used to justify demands for a cutback of the welfare state, such as reducing unemployment benefits. Close inspection reveals that it, perhaps surprisingly, shares some arguments with Post Keynesian and even Marxist theory. The paper proposes an underdetermined, encompassing NAIRU model, which is consistent with several theoretical traditions. Depending on the closure with respect to demand formation and determination of the NAIRU itself, the model allows for New Keynesian, Post Keynesian and Marxist results.     

MONETARY AND FISCAL INTERACTIONS: SHORT‐RUN AND LONG‐RUN IMPLICATIONS

We model policy interactions in a growing economy. Unemployment can persist and matters for the real wage; conflicting claims underpin inflation outcomes; and aggregate demand determines capacity utilization and unemployment. Monetary policy is characterized by a Taylor rule. Fiscal policy is characterized by a marginal tendency to run deficits or surpluses. We address three questions: can monetary policy ensure macroeconomic stability in the absence of coordinated fiscal policy, can fiscal policy ensure macroeconomic stability when the monetary authority pegs the interest rate, and can policy authorities trade‐off some sustained inflation for a long‐run improvement in unemployment rates?     

Growth,income distribution and unemployment in a two-sector economy

We build a two-sector general equilibrium growth model with capital-intensive consumption goods and a labour-intensive investment goods sector to investigate the coexistence of growth and unemployment. The model uses heterogeneity in saving behaviour, introduces an effective demand problem, has full employment of capital with input non-substitutability and shows that the aggregate labour employment is determined by available capital along with commodity market equilibrium. The long-run growth may not be balanced, and under biased growth, the level of unemployment may monotonically increase or decrease over time, or may first increase (decrease) and then decrease (increase). Such possible unemployment paths help us tightly define “jobless growth”.     

Wage-led versus profit-led demand: A comprehensive empirical analysis

This study investigates various economic factors’ impact in determining the relationship between functional income distribution and aggregate demand from both a theoretical and an empirical viewpoint. We base our analysis on a demand-driven growth model for an open economy that allows for either profit-led or wage-led regimes. Our results strongly indicate that a higher level of trade openness is associated with a lower probability of being wage-led. We find evidence that lower wage inequality makes an economy more wage-led and that countries with a greater private credit-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio are more likely to be profit-led.     

WAGE POLICY IN AN OPEN‐ECONOMY KALECKI–KALDOR MODEL: A SIMULATION STUDY

This paper discusses a Post‐Keynesian model of income, production and trade. The one‐country, one‐sector model features Kaleckian investment demand, Kaldorian productivity and a labor market module based on a wage–price spiral. The model is first presented for a closed economy with exogenous real wages; second, for a closed economy with endogenous real wages; third, for an economy open to trade with endogenous real wages. Simulations with different calibrations show key characteristics of the model. Monte Carlo simulations over reasonable parameter ranges shed some light on the effectiveness of wage policies in open economies.     

The Effects of Globalisation on the US Labour Mark'et: Service Sectors Considered

How has globalisation affected employment and wages in the United States? Existing studies largely ignore the intersector labour movement between the manufacturing and service sectors by focusing only on the intrasector movement within the manufacturing sector. However, by decomposing the aggregate labour demand in the United States, we find that the intersector movement is more substantial than intrasector movement. Motivated by the decomposition results, this study presents a three‐sector model that includes a manufacturing sector and two service sectors at varying skill intensities. The model shows that offshoring might translate into smaller‐than‐expected wage changes because of the intersector labour movement. In line with the theoretical predictions, two notable empirical results are presented. First, an occupation's exposure to offshoring has non‐significant, albeit negative, effects on wages. Second, the more an occupation is exposed to offshoring, the lower its employment in the manufacturing sector as a share of its total employment. Furthermore, these effects are larger for more routine occupations or those requiring less education.     

Good jobs, bad jobs, and trade liberalization

How do labor markets adjust to trade liberalization? Leading models of intraindustry trade (Krugman (1981), Melitz (2003)) assume homogeneous workers and full employment, and thus predict that all workers win from trade liberalization, a conclusion at odds with the public debate. Our paper develops a new model that merges Melitz (2003) with Shapiro and Stiglitz (1984), so also links product market churning to labor market churning. Workers care about their jobs because the model features aggregate unemployment and jobs that pay different wages to identical workers. Simulations show that, for reasonable parameter values, as many as one-fourth of existing “good jobs” (those with above average wage) may be destroyed in a liberalization. This is true even as the model shows minimal impact on aggregate unemployment and quite substantial aggregate gains from trade.     

Public pollution abatement and wage inequality

This paper constructs three-sector general equilibrium models to investigate how public pollution abatement affects the skilled–unskilled wage inequality. In the basic model with full employment, we find that a higher degree of public pollution abatement will decrease the wage inequality if the intensity of skilled labor in the urban skilled sector is sufficiently large and expand or narrow down the wage gap if this intensity is sufficiently small. In the extended models, we consider other four cases, and obtain the results similar or dissimilar to that of the basic model.     

HYSTERESIS IN THE DYNAMICS OF EMPLOYMENT

In this paper, we derive a micro model of employment demand with hysteresis whereby firms can adjust along an intensive (employment) and an extensive (hours of work) margin. A mechanism of aggregation over heterogeneous firms is used to generate the corresponding aggregate dynamics. Longitudinal micro monthly data on a representative sample of Portuguese manufacturing firms are used in the empirical analysis. Our results indicate that signs of hysteresis found at the micro level do not vanish completely by aggregation and that hysteresis is magnified by the existence of an additional margin of adjustment (the hours adjustment margin).     

The effects of changes in the exchange rate on output,prices and the balance of payments

A general equilibrium model shows how the government, by using aggregate demand policies, temporarily influences economic activity. In the long run, however, aggregate supply determines output and employment levels. International reserves are lost (gained) during the adjustment process due to policies which keep aggregate demand above (below) its long-run sustainable level. Such policies, if maintained, induce expectations of exchange rate changes. The self-fulfilling character of these expectations will force the government to devalue or revalue, thus neutralizing its previous demand policies.     

Viability and Corridor Stability in Keynesian Supply‐Driven Growth

In this paper we reconsider and generalize a two‐dimensional growth cycle model of Skott that is based on supply‐side adjustment mechanisms and a Kaldorian theory of income distribution. This model gives rise to degenerate Hopf bifurcations if behaviour (in terms of rates of growth) is linear close to the steady state. Furthermore full capacity limits lead to viable dynamics from the global point of view if the steady state is locally attracting and to corridor stability with persistent fluctuations when it is repelling. These findings can to some extent also be obtained for a three‐dimensional growth cycle extension of the Skott model, which includes real wage dynamics as in Rose's employment cycle, now turned into economically viable dynamics through appropriate non‐linearities in the assumed adjustment processes of output and prices in the case when the steady state is locally repelling.