Economic growth and sector dynamics

This paper analyzes the endogenous determination of sectors in a growing economy. It assumes that there are traditional sectors and modern sectors and economic growth is driven by rising productivity of the modern sectors. It also assumes that individuals are heterogeneous, which leads to increasing marginal opportunity costs in creating new modern sectors. We show that under these main assumptions, economic growth first increases diversification to sectors and then reduces it. We also show that for the equilibrium to be stable and well-behaved, it is required that the modern and traditional sectors should be substitutes and not complements.     

农村利益群体的演变及行为方式

在中国农村经济发展和制度安排中，以传统文化为基础的宗族、地缘和业缘派系正在向具有利益性质的现代传统派系转变。特别是在经济发达地区的农村，从传统派系中演化而来的新型利益派系正在与现代传统派系进行利益博弈，以获取自身利益的最大化。本文主要对村庄派系的演化机制、利益实现的手段和方法以及当前派系演化中农村社会结构要素进行分析，并时利益派系与民主村级治理、边缘化与农村社会分层、人际关系理性化与道德重构等相关问题进行了讨论。     

SWEEA—Swedish environmental and economic accounts

As part of the Swedish effort at integrating economic and environmental issues, Statistics Sweden has developed a system of physical environmental accounts. The system is based on the concept of satellite accounts which supplement the traditional national accounts. Here, Statistics Sweden focuses on the chain linking natural resources to economic activities and emissions. Current projects include the use of energy and the emission of pollutants, statistics on waste generation and recycling, and accounts for phosphorus and nitrogen flows. Attention is also paid to improvements of data on expenditures on environmental protection.     

An Extended Analytical Approach to Credit Risk Management

Among the 'reduced form models' for measuring the credit risk of a bank's portfolio is CreditRisk+, which provides a closed–form solution for calculating the portfolio loss distribution based on an actuarial approach. The limitations of this model are well known, but they are often misinterpreted as being deeply embedded within the model. Dismantling the mathematical components of the model allows one to modify and extend it in several ways while remaining within an analytical approach. One of the most unattractive features is the orthogonality of the background factors or sectors as it hinders any resemblance to real–world macroeconomic indexes or industrial sectors and geographical areas. Among other extensions, which we mention briefly, we present in more detail how the original model can be amended to consider correlations among default risk sectors and among severity risk segments. These extensions are applied to real–life data, based on mortality rate data produced by the Italian Central Bank.
(J.E.L.: C00, C51).     

新形势下提高海洋经济统计数据质量的思考

海洋经济数据质量是海洋经济统计工作的生命线。随着海洋经济的快速发展和监测评估能力逐步提升,社会各界对海洋经济统计数据的准确性和可靠度要求也越来越高,提高数据质量对于政府、企业和社会公众正确研判海洋经济走势、提高决策效率具有重要的指导意义。本文阐述了海洋经济统计数据质量内涵,分析了海洋经济统计数据质量问题及影响因素,最后提出了新形势下提高我国海洋经济统计数据质量工作的对策建议。     

对当前深化经济发展模式变革的再探讨

中国经济发展模式这30多年的特点可以基本总结为,必要条件为劳动力从传统部门转移到现代化部门;充分条件为对外开放;产业条件是不断动态地引进世界的先进生产力;制度条件为不断地进行经济体制改革。中国在转化经济发展模式时要注意多方面的问题,例如转化的社会成本和竞争平台的变化。     

Japan's tourism-led foreign direct investment inflows: An empirical study

This study analyzes international tourism–inward foreign direct investment (FDI) relationships by applying dynamic panel models to Japanese data for the 1996–2011 period. A growing number of studies have examined this topic following the publication of the UNCTAD (2007) report; however, the current literature is inadequate. Our analysis is not restricted to tourism-related FDI such as hotels and restaurants, as in the literature, but covers general FDI in the framework of FDI dynamics, because tourism–FDI interactions are not in reality restricted to typical tourism-related FDI. The analysis results reveal that enhanced inbound foreign tourism exhibits spillovers of inward FDI beyond tourism-related sectors. Hence, although policies related to FDI promotion and tourism enhancement are often planned, executed, and evaluated independently under different government jurisdictions, coordination is recommended, because these policies interact with each other in efforts to attain economic development goals.     

中国外贸统计规则的问题和对策：文献综述

随着经济的全球化,现有的外贸统计规则在客观反映外贸数据方面有所欠缺,很多学者对此进行了大量的研究,如对外贸统计中的“跨境交易”、“原产地规则”、数据加工和统计口径等问题的分析,建议完善中国的外贸统计规则应该从修订和创新的角度,修改现有的原产地规则和贸易口径的统一,以及建立一套以所有权为基础的外贸统计体系作为补充。     

Economic growth as a function of human capital,internet and work

The World Bank has suggested the need to enhance Information and Communication Technology skills in all sectors because a 10% increase in internet connectivity was found to boost GDP growth by 1.38%. Simultaneously, the OECD argued that high internet access rates generate a 2% increase in GDP. Because the internet positively affects economic growth, we investigated the relationship between an economically active population, human capital and technology to evaluate these effects in Mexico. A data series from 1991 to 2010 was analysed in three stages according to the least-squares method. A Cobb–Douglas function under the Solow model was considered. Technology and internet access were found to positively affect top-level students and graduate students and thus contribute to the global innovation index.     

浅析现代经济增长理论的演变

经济增长不仅是经济学研究的永恒主题,更是全世界都普遍关注的问题。从亚当·斯密开始,经济学家就不断地对经济增长进行探索。正是由于经济增长与全世界人民的福利息息相关,所以我们对经济增长的研究就显得格外重要。然而随着经济全球化的发展,传统经济增长理论已经不能解释现代社会经济发展过程中出现的种种现象。理论和现实之间的矛盾促使我们探求现代经济增长理论,以更好地解释世界。因此,对现代经济增长理论的演变进行探索,具有积极的理论和现实意义。本文从经济增长的事实入手,首先界定了现代经济增长的概念,然后对现代经济增长理论的发展脉络进行梳理和阐述,分别对哈罗德一多马模型、新古典经济增长模型（外生增长理论）和新增长模型（内生增长理论）进行了详细分析。通过分析可见现代经济增长理论经历了由技术外生增长到内生增长、市场结构由完全竞争到垄断竞争的演变。     

INPUT/OUTPUT ANALYSIS—AN APPRAISAL IN THE CONTEXT OF AS YET AN UNFINISHED EXPERIMENT IN KENYA

The paper discusses the relevance of input/output tables as a tool for economic analysis and planning in developing countries. It contends that this is so only to the extent that the input out-put tables enable consistency of production accounts to be verified while providing a suitable basis for macro projections at the same time. As a by-product, such input out put tables, the paper adds, also provide a convenient framework for estimating the needs for extensions and improvements in basic statistics.
All these requirements, it is stated, can be fulfilled by a relatively aggregated format of an input/output table—which some of the developing countries are in a position to compile. However, the paper states, it is feared that the case for input/output analysis is not based on these requirements. The main force of arguments is in fact based on the uses of input/output tables for more detailed sectoral analysis and projections. The current state of basic statistics on some key sectors, it is stated, is not sufficiently sound to yield an end-product which is reliable. In the case of sectors where this is so the input/output analysis is not relevant either because of concentration of production in a relatively few establishments or because of limited amount of inter-sectoral interaction. It is further felt that if such arguments were to be accepted by developing countries the result would be a distorted disposition of statistical resources. Immediate needs of the developing countries require concentration of effort in development of more reliable and relevant series on basic statistics.     

PROBLEMS OF DETERMINING AND MEASURING THE RELIABILITY OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Most developing countries have compiled national accounts on a regular basis only for the last few years. It has not yet been possible for them to collect many of the statistics necessary to obtain good coverage of their economic activities by methods which would generally be accepted as reliable. Consequently the checks on reliability imposed by the framework of the national accounts are often absent, and the accounts prepared contain many estimates of doubtful quality. These doubts can usually only be removed as statistics collected by better methods become available. This is proving to be a slow process, partly because of the shortage of trained statistical staff and the competing demands of social and demographic statistics and partly because of the inherent difficulties in collecting good statistics from small businesses and traditional households. The need to define traditional households as producers as well as consumers leads to our demanding extra information from this difficult sector. In addition it is often difficult for the national accounts statistician, and even more so for the user, to find out in the time available exactly how some of the statistics with which he is presented were obtained. When this cannot be done it is impossible to assess their reliability. Thus assessing the overall reliability of national accounts in developing countries for even a limited range of uses is at present largely a matter of personal judgment. The information necessary to make more objective assessments rarely exists and hence the problems which developed countries face in using such information are not yet within the experience of most developing countries.     

The use of patent databases by european small and medium-sized enterprises

Patent databases contain a wealth of technical information, but only a fraction of innovative small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) use them as an information source. The characteristics of SMEs that use patent databases and the reasons why they do or do not use them are investigated in this study. Part of the analysis is based on the Community Innovation Survey results, which Is the largest survey to date of innovative European firms. The results show that the probability of using patent databases increases with firms size and is higher among firms that perform research and develobment or which and patents of value as an appropriation method. Furthermore, the percentage of firms in each of 14 sectors that and patents to be an important information source is correlated with the patent propensity rate in each sector. The second part of the study is based on a combined survey and interview study of Dutch SMEs in five high-technology sectors. The results show that SMEs mainly use patent databases to acquire information, often for legal purposes, that is not available from any other source. In contrast, these databases are seldom used to acquire technical data, largely because of the cost in terms of personnel time and expertise. This points to the need for simpler and more efficient methods of searching patent databases.     

The Political Economy of Domestic Labor Mobility: Specific Factors,Landowners, and Education

Political actors today seek to influence labor mobility via education just as they have for centuries. Landowners in countries with large industrial sectors attempt to suppress education levels to maintain their labor supply, as educated workers are able to move into industrial work more easily than uneducated workers. However, the relationship between large landowners and education is more complex than has been previously theorized. Using a specific‐factors model, I show that large landowners in countries with little economic development actually have an incentive to increase education levels. They realize the returns of an educated workforce without fearing their mobility because competing industrial opportunities for the workers do not exist. In either case, the ability of landowners to achieve their political goals is a function of their ability to overcome the collective action problem and effectively influence the state's provision of education. Powerful landowners successfully deny education in industrialized countries and provide it in agricultural countries. An analysis of panel data covering 77 countries from 1975 to 2000 confirms the conditional nature of the relationship.     

REASSESSING THE IMPACT OF BARRIERS TO CAPITAL ACCUMULATION ON INTERNATIONAL INCOME DIFFERENCES*

Can barriers to capital accumulation account for large differences in GDP per capita? We reconsider the claim that these barriers have an amplified effect on income levels in a model where both modern and traditional sector technologies are active. We show that this claim is not correct. We do find, however, that the removal of barriers to capital accumulation can cause large changes in the employment shares of labor. Thus the model can account for an important stylized fact of the development process, with labor moving from the traditional to the modern sector as income levels rise.     

THE ECONOMICS AND THE NONECONOMICS OF THE WORLD WAR INDUSTRY

The world war industry is defined as the part of human income-earning activity devoted to producing, maintaining, and sometimes utilizing means of destruction. Most of the industry consists of what is purchased with national states' military budgets, which are spent by unilateral national defense organizations. These organizations are basically noneconomical, in the sense that they do not have a balance sheet, do not show a "bottom line" or net worth, and therefore there is no way to estimate their profitability. They have economic aspects in terms of decisions that balance marginal benefits against marginal costs. The benefits, however, are mainly psychological in the minds of the decision makers. Wars of conquest, especially those resulting in empires, have not paid off very well for the conquering power. Military defeat often leads to cultural and economic development. Nuclear weapons and long-range missiles have made national defense essentially obsolete and the greatest enemy of national security. Military leaders may respond to this development as they recognize their traditional culture of courage, heroism, and fighting has been replaced by child roasting and perhaps universal destruction. There seem to be few economies of scale in the national state, and perhaps we should look forward to a world of 500 national states in stable peace with a very limited, functional world government.     

Dispersion in Dispersion: Measuring Establishment-Level Differences in Productivity

We describe new experimental productivity dispersion statistics, Dispersion Statistics on Productivity (DiSP), jointly produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Census Bureau, that complement the official BLS industry-level productivity statistics. The BLS has a long history of producing industry-level productivity statistics, which represent the average establishment-level productivity within industries when appropriately weighted. These statistics cannot, however, tell us about the variation in productivity levels across establishments within those industries. Dispersion in productivity across businesses can provide information about the nature of competition and frictions within sectors and the sources of rising wage inequality across businesses. DiSP data show enormous differences in productivity across establishments within industries in the manufacturing sector. We find substantial variation in dispersion across industries, increasing dispersion from 1997 to 2016, and countercyclical total factor productivity dispersion. We hope DiSP will enable further research into understanding productivity differences across industries and establishments and over time.     

China's Statistical System in Transition: Challenges, Data Problems, and Institutional Innovations

While China's official statistics are often regarded as of questionable quality, critics are rarely aware of just how difficult it is to compile accurate statistics in a developing and transition economy. This paper traces the challenges economic reforms pose for the development of China's statistical system, establishes a typology of the resulting data problems in official Chinese statistics today, and examines how these challenges and data problems are being addressed through institutional innovations in data compilation. Analysis of China's data compilation methods allows broad judgments on data quality. Special attention is given to GDP data as the aggregate measure of productive activities in China.     

我国产业集聚特征及其对区域经济增长影响的SGMM分析

笔者从集聚程度和集聚类型两方面描述制造业在我国各区域的分布特征后,基于2000年～2008年30个省市区的面板数据,运用系统广义矩估计方法(SGMM)检验产业集聚对区域经济增长的影响。结果显示:集聚程度对经济增长具有积极作用;与多元化相比,专业化的集聚更有利于经济增长;企业规模过小引起的激烈竞争已阻碍了经济的进一步发展。分行业研究时发现,不同技术含量的行业集聚效应是不同的,目前高技术行业集聚在区域经济增长中的作用尚没有充分发挥。     

成长型资源城市绿色转型研究

资源型城市必须走绿色转型之路。绿色转型是以生态优先、绿色发展为导向的经济转型,其路径选择是一个摆脱传统发展模式向清洁、循环、低碳发展的递进过程,关键是选择在成长期主动转型,核心是优化资源型城市资源型产业发展路径。运用线性规划(Linear Programming)方法对成长型资源城市鄂尔多斯市的资源型产业发展路径优化分析得出,煤炭产业绿色转型不能只追求项目规模和经济增速,发展煤电及现代煤化工是煤炭产业绿色转型的最优路径,煤制气和煤制油是现代煤化工行业的最优路径。