The Fallacy of Free Trade II

This paper argues that not a single proposition of the modern theory of free trade is upheld by the recent experience of the United States. Freer trade is supposed to raise GNP growth and productivity growth as well as the living standard. Until 1972, when the US was practically a closed economy with a trade/GNP ratio averaging a low of 12%, GNP growth was 3.8%, productivity growth was 2%, and real wages had been rising for 150 years. Since 1972, the trade/GNP ratio has been rising steadily, US GNP growth has been only 2.5%, productivity growth is below 1%, and real wages have been falling for over three-quarters of the labor force.     

THE VALUE O F NONMARKET HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTION: OPPORTUNITY COST VERSUS MARKET COST ESTIMATES

This paper discusses the problem of valuing the time spent on household production and presents estimates of that production for the United States in 1960 and 1970. The estimates are derived by using both opportunity cost and market cost valuations of household time. A comparative analysis of these estimates concludes first that opportunity cost estimates exceeded market cost estimates by 1.0 to 3.0 percent of the GNP. Second, the ratio of household production to the GNP, although declining slightly between 1960 and 1970, may in the long run tend to be relatively stable. These conclusions do not support the popular views that over time household production will decline in relative magnitude, or that the opportunity cost method of valuing household time, relative to the market cost method, is significantly upward biased.     

Some Fiscal Implications of Monetary Policy

We study the implications of alternative monetary targeting procedures for real interest rates and economic activity. We find that countercyclical monetary policy rules lead to higher real interest rates, higher average tax rates, lower output but lower variability of tax rates and consumption relative to procyclical rules. For a country with a high level of public debt (e.g. Italy), the adoption of a countercyclical procedure such as interest rate pegging may conceivably raise public debt servicing costs by more than half a percentage point of GNP. Our analysis suggests that the current debate on the targeting procedures of the European Central Bank ought to be broadened to include a discussion of the fiscal implications of monetary policy.     

IS U.S. GROWTH UNDERSTATED BECAUSE OF THE UNDERGROUND ECONOMY? EMPLOYMENT RATIOS SUGGEST NOT

Has the underground economy caused the increase in United States GNP in recent years to be understated relative to earlier periods? The ratio of employment to population provides powerful evidence that it has not. This ratio’ was as high in the middle 1970s as in previous periods and in 1978–80 rose to its highest level of the postwar era, suggesting that employment growth has not been understated. Employment series based on both establishment reports and household surveys yield exceptionally high ratios in recent years. This article provides a step-by-step explanation of why employment data are pertinent to the question raised about GNP. This explanation may be summarized as follows. GNP measured as the sum of final products is not understated unless GNP measured as the sum of national income and other charges against GNP is also understated. Appreciable understatement of the growth of charges against GNP as a result of growth of the underground economy is highly unlikely in the absence of understatement of the growth of wages and salaries, because of the way the estimates are made. Understatement of the growth of wages and salaries without understatement of the growth of employment based on establishment reports is highly unlikely because of the way data are collected. The article explains briefly the relationship between income tax evasion and errors in measuring the various components of charges against GNP. It also explains how illegal activities are meant to be handled in GNP measurement.     

EXPANDING IMPUTED VALUES IN THE NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS*

After defining economic activity the author lists the chief types of non–market economic activities for which he has prepared estimates for the United States 1929–1973, and briefly describes his methodology and data sources. Some major findings are: (1) As of 1973 GNP adjusted to include the additional imputations was 63.5 percent larger than the official estimate. (2) At least since 1929 imputed values have grown faster than official GNP, especially when both are measured in terms of real factor costs. (3) The personal sector comprises a far larger portion of the national economy-almost one-third—when account is taken of imputed labor and property compensation, and its relative importance has grown. (4) Gross government product is more than 60 percent higher when the imputed rental value of public property is added to the compensation of general government employees. (5) Reflecting the relative growth of non-business wealth, imputed property income has risen much faster than monetized property income. This has mitigated the decline in the property share of expanded gross national income compared with its share in the official estimates.     

Language after liftoff: Fed communication away from the zero lower bound

This paper examines the Federal Reserve's communication strategy to see how well it has worked and how it can be improved. It argues that Federal Reserve communication when short-term interest rates are no longer constrained by the zero lower bound should be focused on relaying a data-based reaction function which informs market participants how interest rates will adjust as new information arrives. Instead, the Federal Reserve in recent years has relied more heavily than desired on “time-based” forward guidance, focusing on when interest rates are likely to rise rather than under what circumstances. We argue that, except under unusual circumstances, this is an imprudent strategy, as it mutes the effect of macroeconomic news on interest rates and unnecessarily places restrictions on future Federal Reserve action when new information arrives. We argue that the Federal Reserve can improve communication in the current environment by moving away from time-based forward guidance, clarifying how interest rates are likely to change given new information, and providing more information in the Summary of Economic Projections.     

REVISED REAL CANADIAN GNP ESTIMATES AND CANADIAN ECONOMIC GROWTH, 1870–1926

Revised Canadian real GNP estimates for the 1870–1926 period, based on the nominal GNP estimates constructed by M. C. Urquhart and on a variety of sector-specific price indexes, are presented below. The construction of this revised real GNP series allows for the creation of real output estimates for the major sectors of the Canadian economy as well as for a new implicit price index series. These revised estimates cast new light on our present understanding of Canadian economic growth and reinforce the view that the Canadian wheat boom probably played an important and positive role in the process of Canadian economic development.     

POTENTIAL GNP IN THE UNITED STATES, 1948–80

Potential gross national product (GNP) is a measure of the aggregate supply capability of an economy, or the amount of output that could be expected at full employment. Such a measure of output at constant rates of labor and capital utilization is useful as a benchmark for economic performance, calculation of the full employment surplus as an indicator of fiscal policy, and in the projection of unemployment rates. Potential GNP for the United States is estimated for the years 1948–77, and projected for 1978–80. The calculations use a variable benchmark for the full-employment unemployment rate, based on the changing age-sex composition of the labor force, and a constant benchmark for the utilization of fixed capital. A framework for separation of productivity into trend, cycle, and irregular components is developed, and then estimated for the 1948–77 period, using quarterly data. The relationships between various age- and sex-specific unemployment rates are also estimated in construction of the variable unemployment benchmark.     

Monetary Policy and Forecasts for Real GDP Growth: An Empirical Investigation for the Federal Republic of Germany

Using quarterly data for the Federal Republic of Germany, we generate four-quarter-ahead forecasts for real GDP growth. Throughout the 1970s and 1980s, other monetary indicators like real M1 or short-run interest rates clearly outperform forecasts which are based on interest rate spreads. This holds for within as well as for ex-post predictions. The same holds for the development after 1992. Moreover, it is shown that simple forecasts based on M1 or on short-run interest rates outperform the common biannual GNP forecasts of the group of German economic research institutes.     

Are US macroeconomic series difference stationary or trend-break stationary?

This article tests for the presence of a unit-root in all time series included in the extended Nelson–Plosser data set using the statistics devised by Zivot and Andrews, Perron and Murray and Zivot. It specifies the mixed model characterization of the trend-break stationary alternative that allows for a simultaneous break in both the intercept and slope of the trend-function. It rejects the unit-root null hypothesis for real GNP, nominal GNP, real per capita GNP, industrial production, employment, GNP deflator, nominal wages, interest rate and common stock prices. Use of appropriate critical values to assess the significance of the trend-function coefficients reveals that the slope-break should be included in real GNP, nominal GNP, real per capita GNP, nominal wages, interest rate and common stock prices. The results indicate that there is less evidence against the unit-root hypothesis with the extended Nelson–Plosser data compared to the original Nelson–Plosser data.     

The impact of monetary policy on financial markets in small open economies: More or less effective during the global financial crisis?

This paper estimates the impact of monetary policy on exchange rates and stock prices of eight small open economies: Australia, Canada, the Republic of Korea, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. On average across these countries in the full sample, a one percentage point surprise rise in official interest rates leads to a 1% appreciation of the exchange rate and a 0.5–1% fall in stock prices, with somewhat stronger effects in OECD countries than non-OECD countries (though differences are sometimes not significant). We find little robust evidence of a change in the effect of monetary policy surprises during the recent financial crisis.     

A note on capacity utilization,productivity, and the Canadian output gap

This study revises estimates of real Canadian potential output and the real GNP gap by applying a method of directly estimating the actual and potential factor utilization rates to quarterly Canadian data. The empirical results indicate that capital utilization varies just under twice as much as labour use over the cycle. The results also suggest that labour productivity will vary procyclically, with the elasticity of productivity with respect to the employment rate estimated to be 1.42.     

A New Approach to Modelling Gnp Functions: an Application of Two-Stage Technologies and Modifying Function Framework

This paper first demonstrates that two-stage technologies together with Lewbel's modifying function framework can provide a general procedure for combining profit functions and nominal value-added functions to obtain new specifications of GNP functions suitable for empirical trade analysis. Next, it illustrates the usefulness of this procedure by proposing a new parametric form of a GNP function in which the derived import demand and output supply systems can be easily constrained to be regular, and the functional structure is parsimonious in the number of additional parameters. We also compare our estimates with those obtained using the familiar Translog flexible form. Results indicate that the proposed procedure is feasible and promising as a tool for generating regular and realistic import demand and output supply equations.     

Equilibrium real interest rates and the financial cycle: Empirical evidence for Euro area member countries

We estimate the equilibrium real interest rate for nine Euro area member countries and the Euro area as a whole using quarterly data from 1995 to 2015. We expand the standard model of estimating real equilibrium interest rates to incorporate the financial cycle for the private sector. We show that adding the financial cycle indeed alters the equilibrium real interest rate estimates and, in line with previous studies, that there is a fall in the equilibrium real interest rate over time. Our results indicate that in most member countries the real rate is lower than its equilibrium level. Hence, they should not worry about secular stagnation now. This is because secular stagnation is likely to occur when real interest rates are higher than their equilibrium levels. This result can serve as a starting point for further research in this field, e.g. by adding public sector financial cycles or disentangling the roles of households, corporations and the government.     

Are the budgets of state and local governments destabilizing? A six country comparison

This study uses estimates of the annual impact of changes in state and local government budgets during the period 1955–1965 for six countries: Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the United Kingdom, and the United States. These, in turn, are compared with the GNP growth rate in order to evaluate the contribution to short-run stabilization.The conclusions are that the year-to-year impact of the state and local sector was substantially smaller than that of the central government; and this is true for countries like Germany and the United States, which have large state-local sectors, as well as for countries like Belgium and France, where the state-local sector is quite small. Also, the impact tends not to vary over the cycle as much as that of central government. Germany was the country where budgetary change made the largest contribution to economic stability, but the effects in all other countries except Belgium were also positive (albeit to a much smaller degree).     

THE TREATMENT OF INTANGIBLE RESOURCES AS CAPITAL

The author describes the results of his current research designed to measure total investment, tangible and intangible, and the derived capital stocks for the U.S., 1929–1966. With respect to total investment, the estimates show a marked increase in its ratio to GNP. All of the increase occurs in the intangible component comprising R & D, education and training, health, and mobility. The increase was concentrated in the government sector, although households increased the proportion of disposable personal income devoted to total investment.
Consistent with the relative investment trends, the stock of intangible capital grew considerably faster than the tangible stock. The growth of total capital stocks was somewhat less than that of GNP, however, in both current and constant prices. Thus, the rate of return on total capital rose somewhat over the period. Average rates of return on human and nonhuman capital were closely similar.
In real terms, the growth of total capital stocks accounted for two-thirds of the growth in real GNP, 1929–1966. One-third of the growth is attributed to residual forces, chiefly economies of scale, changes in inherent quality of human and natural resources, changes in values and motivations, and changes in rates of utilization of capacity.
The growth of the ratio of real intangible stocks to real tangible stocks accounted for less than half of the increase in total factor productivity 1929–1966. This is significantly less than the contribution of intangibles as estimated by Denison, and the author adduces several reasons why his estimates may understate the contribution. Nevertheless, it seems that the net effect of the residual forces enumerated above must also have made a substantial contribution to the growth of tangible factor productivity and real GNP over the 37-year period.     

PARTISAN POLITICS, INTEREST RATES AND THE STOCK MARKET: EVIDENCE FROM AMERICAN AND BRITISH RETURNS IN THE TWENTIETH CENTURY

We examine the relationship between government partisanship, interest rates and the mean and volatility of stock prices in the United States and United Kingdom. We suggest that traders in the stock market rationally expect higher (lower) post-electoral interest rates during the incumbency of the left-wing (right-wing) party – Democrats and Labor (Republican and Conservative) – and in election years when they expect the left-wing (right-wing) party to win elections. We hypothesize that expectations of higher (lower) interest rates decrease (increase) the mean and volatility of stock prices during the actual incumbency or even anticipation of a left-wing (right-wing) party holding the office of the chief executive. Results from empirical models estimated on data from U.S. and U.K. markets over most of the twentieth century statistically support our claims.     

Monetary Policy and Capital Inflow*

Capital inflow has been depicted in the model developed by Pentti Kouri and Michael Porter as being determined exclusively by monetary forces, with GNP entering the equation through its impact on the demand for money. If this is correct, disaggregation of GNP should have little effect on the estimates of response parameters in the model. It is found that replacing GNP by investment and non-investment spending has a significant effect on the estimates, suggesting that capital inflows have direct purposes which are not well represented in a purely monetary model. An attempt is made to construct a money policy equation as the second part of a simultaneous system depicting the interplay of monetary policy and capital inflow. In spite of claims to the contrary, it is found that simultaneous estimation gives results which differ considerably from those of single-equation methods.     

TERMS OF TRADE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NINETEENTH CENTURY BRITAIN *

International trade and economic growth have been considered intimately linked in nineteenth century Britain. Conventional estimates of Britain's gross national product, however, fail to account for changes in the terms of trade and may be misleading indicators of changes in real income. Revised figures that incorporate terms of trade changes are presented here. One finding is that conventional estimates of GNP overstate growth in real income early in the century when the terms of trade deteriorated.     

Asymmetric responses of house prices to changes in the mortgage interest rate: evidence from the Australian capital cities

We examine the dynamic and asymmetric responses of house prices to changes in mortgage interest rates in Australia from January 1995 to November 2017. We propose a threshold intervention model to distinguish between the effects of positive versus negative changes in the standard variable interest rate. The results indicate that rising interest rates decrease house prices more than falling interest rates increase them. For example, a 1% decrease in interest rates increases Sydney’s house prices by 0.7%, whereas a 1% increase leads to a 1.5% fall. The findings also support the view that when interest rates are on the rise, house prices in larger capital cities such as Sydney and Melbourne fall faster than in their smaller counterparts. Our findings imply that a rise in interest rates may thus lead to sharp, fast and significant falls in house prices, a phenomenon which will not simply be a symmetric unwinding of earlier price increases.