Performance of moving average trading strategies over varying stock market conditions: the Finnish evidence

This article examines the profitability of dual moving average crossover (DMAC) trading strategies in the Finnish stock market over the period 1996 to 2012. It contributes to the existing technical analysis literature by comparing for the first time the performance of DMAC trading portfolios of individual stocks to the performance of index trading strategies based on trading on an index that consists of the same stocks. The results show that their relative performance varies over time, whereas previous studies have documented outperformance of index trading strategies over trading strategies of stock portfolios. Moreover, the great majority of 3020 DMAC strategies examined in this article outperform the corresponding buy-and-hold (B and H) strategy for both trading targets (i.e., OMX Helsinki 25 index and individual stocks included in the index) in out-of-sample tests. In addition, the decomposition of the full-sample-period performance into separate bull- and bear-period performance shows clearly that the outperformance of DMAC strategies over B and H strategy is mostly attributable to their better performance during bearish periods.     

中国外资工业企业全要素生产率的增长特征及其空间差异——基于2001-2007年省域面板数据的随机前沿分析

本文基于随机前沿分析方法对中国省域外资工业企业在2001-2007年期间的面板数据进行了模型估计及假设检验,并据此对中国外资工业企业全要素生产率增长进行了实证测算和具体分析。研究发现,样本期间内中国外资工业企业的全要素生产率始终呈现出快速增长的态势,其中技术进步是全要素生产率增长的最重要因素;全国及四大经济板块外资工业企业的全要素生产率增长率总体上均呈现出跌宕起伏的波动变化趋势,且各区域间外资工业企业全要素生产率增长具有明显的＂马太效应＂特征。     

现代证券投资组合理论在我国应用的局限与思考

我国证券市场是一个新兴市场,借鉴投资理论和推进科学化投资管理对我国证券市场长期稳定发展具有重要的现实意义。文章分析了现代证券投资组合理论在我国证券市场运用受到局限的主要原因。结合我国证券市场的发展的实际,提出了规范和发展我国证券市场的建议。     

Information in stock prices: the case of the 2016 U.S. presidential election

On the day before the 2016 U.S. presidential election, the odds of Hillary Clinton winning the presidency, according to political prediction markets, were above 90%. Surprisingly, Donald Trump won the Electoral College handily. In this study, we examine how movements in specific stock prices foreshadowed the eventual outcome. Specifically, we conduct a series of standard event-study tests focused on pharmaceutical companies, which became a focal point during the presidential campaign. Results show that while stocks of pharmaceutical companies significantly underperformed the market prior to the election, prices substantially increased beginning three days before the election outcome. This increase is both statistically significant and economically meaningful and robust to various event-study methodologies. These results suggest that some sectors of the stock market seemed to anticipate the election outcome.     

Regulation and efficiency in transition: the case of Romanian banks

Using disaggregated panel data for the period 1996–2002, this paper estimates the cost efficiency of Romanian banks and relates it to regulation implemented by the National Bank of Romania. We estimate efficiency using a model that combines the frameworks of both stochastic frontier analysis and shadow cost functions. Our results indicate that, for all types of banks, the cost of technical inefficiency decreases in the years following tightening of regulation. A significant part of this decrease can be attributed to the policy change. Overall, the short-run increase in cost due to additional regulation exceeds the benefits from reduced technical inefficiency. However, our model does not account for other benefits, besides changes in X-inefficiency, such as stability of the banking system, which may be significant.      

An analysis of innovation in textile companies: An efficiency approach

The elimination of trade contingency measures in 2005 triggered a process of renewal in the textile sector, requiring major investments. The divide between efficiency and innovation has become an issue of major importance for decision-making in the Spanish textile sector. This study provides quantitative data on the efficiency levels of innovative Spanish textile companies. The aim is to identify their distinguishing features and establish a possible pattern to follow. In addition, truncated regression is used to estimate the determinants of efficiency, in order to check the significance of innovation processes for firms.     

企业所有权性质与研发效率——基于随机前沿函数的高技术产业实证研究

本文运用随机前沿生产函数分别对我国高技术产业中国有及国有控股企业和三资企业的研发效率进行了度量,着重度量了企业规模、市场结构、出口、消化吸收经费投入等因素对该产业不同所有权性质企业研发效率的影响。通过企业所有权性质与研发效率的对比分析发现,国有企业研发效率整体偏低,但近年呈上升趋势,企业规模、市场竞争和消化吸收经费投入与该类企业研发效率显著正相关;三资企业电子及通信设备制造业研发效率近年来出现下降趋势,消化吸收费用对其研发效率提高作用不显著。     

Portfolio effects in conglomerate mergers: the empirical evidence of leverage effects in Korean liquor market

In the article, we implement an empirical test on the portfolio effects of conglomerate mergers, using the data of Korean liquor market during the period 1990–2008 in which there have been several important conglomerate mergers between beer and soju companies. We find that the combined company could take the advantage of regional market dominance in the beer market in expanding regional market shares in the soju market. Such leverage effects are differentiated from the efficiency-enhancing portfolio effects that result in the combined company’s expanding shares over all regional soju markets regardless of the presence of dominance in the beer market. The common distribution channels of liquor wholesalers seem to play a pivotal role in the combined firm’s expansion of dominance in one market into another. Furthermore, we implement separate empirical tests for two subsamples of regionally dominant and nondominant soju companies in order to differentiate the leverage effects of foreclosure from those of toehold. The empirical results show the evidence of leverage effects only for a sample of nondominant soju companies. This implies that the leverage effects of conglomerate mergers between beer and soju companies in Korea had pro-competitive effects in that the combined firm could compete more effectively with regionally dominant companies with the leverage of dominance in the beer market as toehold.     

股票市场系统动力学分析：以上海股票市场为例

本文突破了传统经济理论研究的线性框架,视股票为一非线性系统,运用分形、混沌等复杂性理论对上海股票市场的系统动力学特征进行实证研究,得出了上海股票市场系统的分形特征、复杂性程度、系统演化类型及稳定性,最后,探讨了这些结论对股票市场的理论与实践意义。     

Technical efficiency, market share and profitability of manufacturing firms in Cote d'Ivoire: the technology trap

This paper investigates the sources of inefficiency of firmsin Côte d'Ivoire and examines to what extent these effectstranslate into poor performance. A large majority of firms istechnically inefficient, producing far below the maximum attainableoutput level. Major cost savings can also be realised throughenlarging the scale of activities of firms. Efficiency gainsand scale advantages translate into a better competitive positionand via their impact on market share into higher profitability.However, severe growth barriers and imperfect markets keep firmsfrom realising these gains and prevent firms from catching upin technology with respect to their larger, older and oftenforeign-owned competitors.     

我国电力行业规制改革两阶段技术效率对比分析

我国从20世纪80年代开始对电力行业进行规制改革,在一定程度上取得了成效,但是在电力行业依然存在高投入、低产出、低效率的现象。采用1999—2002年,2003—2007年规制改革两阶段的电力行业数据,运用随机前沿方法(SFA)分析我国内地31个省市电力行业的技术效率,并进而得出结论:我国电力行业技术效率总体不高,电力行业属于规模报酬递增行业并且资本弹性产出较大于劳动产出弹性,东中西部技术效率差距较大,但有逐渐趋同的趋势;从两阶段技术效率对比看,我国电力行业技术效率处于下降趋势,表明我国电力行业规制改革的成效不大。为提高我国电力行业的技术效率,最后提出了相应的对策建议。     

信息技术投资对我国制造企业技术效率影响的区域差异分析——基于面板数据随机前沿分析方法的实证研究

基于我国26个省和直辖市的3440家制造企业的相关数据,运用面板数据随机前沿分析的方法,对我国东、中、西三大区域制造企业信息技术投资对技术效率的影响进行了对比分析。实证研究的结果显示,在考虑信息技术影响的前提下,东部地区与中西部地区制造企业的技术效率出现了差异化增长的情况。最后,从信息技术投资应用的角度分析了出现这种区域差异化增长的原因,并给出了相应的建议。     

The evolution of stock market efficiency in the US: a non-Bayesian time-varying model approach

A non-Bayesian time-varying model is developed by introducing the concept of the degree of market efficiency that varies over time. This model may be seen as a reflection of the idea that continuous technological progress alters the trading environment over time. With new methodologies and a new measure of the degree of market efficiency, we examine whether the US stock market evolves over time. In particular, a time-varying autoregressive (TV-AR) model is employed. Our main findings are: (i) the US stock market has evolved over time and the degree of market efficiency has cyclical fluctuations with a considerably long periodicity, from 30 to 40 years; and (ii) the US stock market has been efficient with the exception of four times in our sample period: during the long recession of 1873–1879; the recession of 1902–1904; the New Deal era; and the recession of 1957–1958 and soon after it. It is then shown that our results are partly consistent with the view of behavioural finance.     

Shareholder Value Maximisation,Stock Market and New Technology: Should the US Corporate Model be the Universal Standard? 1

In 1992 a blue‐ribbon group of US economists led by Michael Porter concluded that the US stock market‐based corporate model was misallocating resources and jeopardising US competitiveness. The faster growth of US economy since then and the supposed US lead in the spread of information technology has brought new legitimacy to the stock market and the corporate model, which is being hailed as the universal standard. Two main conclusions of the analysis presented here are: (a) there is no warrant for revising the blue‐ribbon group’s conclusion; and (b) even US corporations let alone developing country ones would be better off not having stock market valuation as a corporate goal.     

我国上市公司股票增值权的博弈分析

股票增值权的激励模式在我国上市公司已实施数十年,然而,实施的过程中仍有许多不足。从股票增值权激励的对象入手,对股票增值权利益相关对象的博弈进行了研究,得到股票增值权计划的条款不能使得双方利益均衡时,依然难以有效激励员工、增加股东利益。     

Utilizing patent analysis to explore the cooperative competition relationship of the two LED companies: Nichia and Osram

This study used patent analysis to explore the co-opetition behavior between the two light emitting diode (LED) manufactures, Nichia and Osram, from the two critical technological fields in the LED industry: LED components and phosphor. The results of patent analysis indicated that Nichia had advantages in the field of LED components, while Osram had advantages in the field of phosphor. Therefore, there existed cooperation opportunities for the two opponents in the LED industry, because their technological capabilities were partially complementary. Therefore, Nichia and Osram were willing to make a compromise to solve the patent litigations between them and further agreed to offer cross-licensing of patents for each other. Their strategic interaction was changed from full competition to co-opetition which is win-win for them. This study demonstrates that patent analysis is a useful tool for R&D management and technical analysis, and the results of this study can provide a valuable reference for managers in formulating patent portfolio.     

会计信息披露与资本市场效率的关系研究

会计信患披露及其公开程度是影响资本市场资源配置效率、运行效率等的关键性因素。为促使我国资本市场良好的发展,本文分析了会计信息披露与资本市场效率之闻的相互关系,并提出了建立完善会计信息披露制度,提高资本市场效率的有力措施。     

Testing the relative purchasing power parity hypothesis: the case of Korea

This study examines the relative purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis using the data from the Korean won–US dollar and the Korean won–Japanese yen foreign exchange markets. We extract proxies for inflation from stock market returns of Korea, the United States and Japan based on the method used by Chowdhry, Roll and Xia in 2005. We explicitly test the relative PPP hypothesis in light of the short-run price volatility using monthly, bimonthly and quarterly data from 1 January 1998 to 31 December 2012. Our findings suggest that the empirical test results from the entire sample period do not support the relative PPP hypothesis. However, the results from the sample period excluding the Asian Financial Crisis period show that the relative PPP hypothesis holds for the Korean won–US dollar market with a moderate magnitude of inflation impact, but not for the Korean won–Japanese yen market. Abrupt changes in exchange rates during the crisis period may have affected the relationship between inflation and exchange rates. This result also suggests that factors other than inflation might have affected the Korean won–Japanese yen exchange rate.     

Macroeconomic shocks and stock market returns: the case of Korea

This study examines the effects of macroeconomic shocks on key macro variables, including stock market returns in Korea, using the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. We suggest a three-variable SVAR model incorporating inflation, output growth and stock returns. We adopt a nonzero z-ratio restriction for the long-run identifying assumption to allow for economically meaningful relationships among variables. While our results support the negative (positive) relation of demand (supply) shocks to stock returns, we also find that demand shocks influence stock market variance more significantly than supply shocks do. The sub-period analysis finds that global market fluctuations during the global financial crisis have relatively little effect on Korean stock market performance. We also examine a generalized five-variable model that includes the foreign exchange rate and interest rate, confirming the results from the three-variable case.     

Innovative performance effects of institutional quality: an empirical investigation from the Triad

ABSTRACT

Using data for a set of 823 R&D-intense manufacturing firms within the Triad and the Quality of Government (QoG) dataset over the 2002–2010 period, this article investigates the effects of institutional quality upon firms’ inefficiency, through the application of a Stochastic Frontier Approach (SFA). Empirical evidence, which is robust to alternative specifications of the technology employed and different lag structures in R&D activities, reveals that improvements in the quality of institutions significantly reduce firms’ inefficiency and suggests that, among the set of relevant institutional factors considered, a pre-eminent role is found for the rule of law.