LIBOR as a Keynesian Beauty Contest: A Process of Endogenous Deception

This paper uses the Keynesian Beauty Contest as a theoretical framework to analyse the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR) fixing mechanism, where the actual money market rate is seen as a fundamental value towards which the LIBOR should aim. By treating the LIBOR as the outcome of a particular kind of p-beauty contest game, in which players (LIBOR banks) are guided by higher order beliefs, a process is created whereby they are not solely dependent on their own incentives and constraints. Instead, potential deception is generated endogenously though the fixing process itself, resulting in systematic deviations of the LIBOR from its fundamental value.     

The pricing and hedging of structured notes with systematic jump risk: An analysis of the USD knock-out reversed swap

Most of the interest rate derivative pricing models are jump-diffusion models, where the jump risk is assumed diversifiable. In this paper, we propose a Heath–Jarrow–Morton model with systematic jump risk to derive the no-arbitrage condition using Esscher transformation. Based on the Heath–Jarrow–Morton model with systematic jump risk, the dynamic process of the LIBOR market model with systematic jump risk is then developed. By decomposing the USD knock-out reversed swap into three derivative components, i.e., interest rate swap, interest rate digital call (IRDC) and cap, the pricing of the swap can be obtained from the dynamic process of the LIBOR market model with systematic jump risk. We show how the swap issuers/investors can hedge the swap risk using these three derivative components. The numerical analyses are conducted to show the impact of jump risk on the values of IRDC, cap and swap.     

Testing uncovered interest rate parity using LIBOR

We test uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) using London InterBank Offered Rate (LIBOR) interest rates for a wide range of maturities. In contrast to other markets, LIBOR markets have minimal frictions. Whereas most previous studies reject UIP, we find that UIP holds for several short-term LIBOR maturities using block bootstrap panel unit root tests suggested by Palm et al. (2011) and cointegration techniques by Westerlund (2007). Furthermore, the estimation results suggest that the speed of adjustment to the long-run equilibrium marginally differs across the maturity of the underlying instrument, thus supporting the efficient market hypothesis.     

The effect of underreporting on LIBOR rates

On May 29, 2008, the Wall Street Journal reported that several large international banks were reporting unjustifiably low LIBOR rates. Since then two large banks, Barclays and UBS, have paid significant fines for manipulating their LIBOR rates, and additional banks are expected to be fined. This paper investigates whether the underreporting of LIBOR rates by some banks significantly affected the reported LIBOR rate by testing whether there was a significant change in the relationship between the LIBOR rate and another rate that reflects the default risk of banks.     

投资者决策行为与股价形成及波动

本文以行为金融学为主构建了投资者行为与股价形成的解释模型 ,认为决定股价形成的因素很多 ,可能有企业真实价值、投资者对企业真实价值的认可程度、市场制度约束变量、市场资金充裕供求关系变量等 ,这些变量之间可能有很强的独立性。因此 ,仅用表征投资者的变量解释股价形成是不够全面的。文章建立了在股价上升、下降、整理状况下 ,买入者与卖出者预期不一致时的市场变量组合 ,从而从逻辑上说明投资者意见分歧与股价的关系 ,并通过数学模型实证说明投资者意见分歧与股价并非同向单调关系。从市场变量组合还可得出 :投资者意见分歧大小与股价波动一致 ,因此用意见分歧变量解释股价波动更合理 ;投资者意见分歧与交易量变化是非同向的 ,因此以换手率表征投资者意见分歧大小不合理     

Evolutionary stable stock markets

Summary. This paper shows that a stock market is evolutionary stable if and only if stocks are evaluated by expected relative dividends. Any other market can be invaded in the sense that there is a portfolio rule that, when introduced on the market with arbitrarily small initial wealth, increases its market share at the incumbents expense. This mutant portfolio rule changes the asset valuation in the course of time. The stochastic wealth dynamics in our evolutionary stock market model is formulated as a random dynamical system. Applying this theory, necessary and sufficient conditions are derived for the evolutionary stability of portfolio rules when relative dividend payoffs follow a stationary Markov process. These local stability conditions lead to a unique evolutionary stable portfolio rule according to which assets are evaluated by expected relative dividends (with respect to the objective probabilities).Received: 7 October 2003, Revised: 18 January 2005, JEL Classification Numbers: G11, D52, D81. Correspondence to: Klaus Reiner Schenk-HoppéWe are grateful to Jarrod Wilcox and William Ziemba for valuable comments. Financial support by the national center of competence in research Financial Valuation and Risk Management is gratefully acknowledged. The national centers in research are managed by the Swiss National Science Foundation on behalf of the federal authorities.     

Diminishing Returns: Carbon Market Crisis and the Future of Market-Dependent Climate Change Finance

The current and future costs of meeting climate change mitigation needs in the global South vastly exceed levels of available funding from public sources in the North. As a possible solution to this problem, policy-makers and various observers have pushed increasingly for the adoption of market-based carbon financing strategies, with the United Nations Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) representing the most consistent application of this approach to date. Nevertheless, market-based carbon finance remains highly volatile given its heavy dependence on conditions in the broader global carbon market which remains in the throes of a devastating crisis, earning carbon the distinction of 2011s worst performing global commodity. By demonstrating that it is through carbon's market price that finance-generating investment in the CDM is largely derived, and which also determines the ex post value of CDM projects, this paper argues for the decoupling of climate change finance from carbon's market value. The need to do so is particularly pressing since, it is argued, the current crisis in the global carbon market reflects an embedded crisis tendency in that market, born in part from the political machinations through which it was born and which leaves it prone to persisting crises of oversupply.     

Dynamic factor demands and market structure under rational expectations: some estimates for the Italian manufacturing system

This paper deals with a dynamic model of the behaviour of firms under rational expectations. The adjustment cost framework is followed to describe production technologies. The objective of firms is to maximize the stream of future profits under rational expectation. First-order conditions for the optimum are derived with respect to input demands and one output supply. The output market structure is modelled in order to test price taking behaviour. The adjustment costs of quasi-fixed inputs are internal and interrelated. The model is estimated for the Italian manufacturing system with encouraging results.     

Inventory investment,investment and employment with uncertain demand

In that paper, a model of the optimal behaviour of firms with respect to the determination of capacity employment, investment and inventories is presented and estimated. Firms face an infinite horizon and an uncertain expected demand. The optimality conditions are derived, linearized and integrated. After having defined the stable optimal paths, one can proceed to the estimation of the model and to various simulations.     

Which way does water flow? An econometric analysis of the global price integration of water stocks

Around US$600 billion of investment is desperately needed to address forecasted huge shortages in water supply globally. A number of worldwide investors – so-called water funds – have started to take up this challenge. For these global water investors, knowledge about the extent of integration between the water sectors of financial markets is highly important. According to international portfolio diversification theory, the less (more) integrated markets are, the more (less) benefits there are from international diversification. In this study, we investigate the extent and manner of interdependence among the US, European and Asian water sector of the equity markets based on Vector Autoregression (VAR), Granger causality and impulse response analyses. We find that world water stock market prices are indeed significantly interdependent although this interdependence varies across time periods. Each market quickly responds to shocks from each other and completes its response within 3 days. Hence, for water investors, international diversification that is undertaken just within the water sector will not be beneficial. The result also implies that there is the risk of crossmarket contagion – that is, price volatility spill over across water sectors of different financial markets, and therefore, water authorities in one market should take cognisance of events in other markets.     

股指期货对A股波动性的影响

鉴于GARCH模型适合研究金融时间序列的方差随时间变化的情况,笔者采用该模型研究股指期货的推出能否减少股票市场的波动性。本文选取股指期货推出前后一年的沪深300指数的日收盘价作为原始数据,通过建立GARCH模型就股指期货对股票市场波动性的影响进行了实证研究,结果显示,股指期货的引入在一定程度上降低了我国股票现货市场的波动性,但不显著。     

为什么要加强对"国有资本财政"的研究

从近几年来的研究动态看,无论是财政理论界还是政府财政职能部门,关注的热点大多集中在如何建立“公共财政”上,把单一的“公共财政”作为与我国社会主义市场经济相适应的唯一目标模式。我国是以公有制为主体的国家,存在着面广量大的国有资产,这就决定了国有资产总量中除了非市场赢利性的部分外,还包含了巨额的经营性国有资产,因而我国在市场赢利性的国有经济基础上就必然相应产生“国有资本财政”。因此,由公共财政与国有资本财政所构成的国家财政必然要实行“双重(元)结构财政”模式,这是适应我国经济体制转轨特征和需要的财政运行模式。作为其重要组成部分的国有资本财政是社会主义市场经济的必然选择。加强对国有资本财政问题的研究有利于“双重(元)结构财政”模式的理论建构;有利于巩固我国公有制的主体地位;有利于矫正国有资本财政“越位”与公共财政“缺位”并存的格局;有利于澄清国有资本在市场竞争领域进与退的理论误区。     

外资银行进入对发展中国家银行信贷可得性的影响研究

如何引导外资银行增加东道国的信贷可得性,尤其是中小企业的信贷可得性,是目前理论和政策界争论的焦点问题之一。本文通过构建一个理论模型,分析了外资银行进入和国内信贷供给的关系,从市场均衡结果、社会福利、成本效率等几个角度对外资银行进入发展中的东道国的影响进行综合分析。模型结果表明,外资银行的进入并不必然增加一国的总体信贷水平、也并不必然提高东道国银行业的成本效率和整体社会福利,甚至在某些特定条件下,结果可能适得其反。     

Extreme daily changes in U.S. Dollar London inter-bank offer rates

The likelihood of extreme daily changes in London Interbank Offer rates are estimated using the peaks-over-threshold method developed from extreme value theory. Value at risk and expected shortfall for high quantiles are produced for the left and right tails of the distributions for each maturity. The Generalized Pareto distribution of the peaks-over-threshold method is found to be unsuitable for modeling exceedances above a high threshold for samples of simple daily changes in the LIBOR. When the series are transformed to logarithmic daily changes, extreme value analysis proceeds smoothly and yields useful information about the relative frequency or magnitudes of extreme events. The main consequence of this is that the risk statistics associated with a given change in the LIBOR depend on the initial rate level; at higher (lower) interest rates, changes of a given size are more (less) likely to occur.     

资本市场的发展与现代金融体系的形成

资本市场是现代金融体系中最具有活力的要素,是储蓄转化为投资的有效途径。资本市场通过市场化的机制引导资本在产业间的合理流动,加速着产业结构的调整和升级。资本市场上资产交易量的迅速增加,意味着其在资源配置中的作用日益增强。资本市场的不断成长,正在从根本上推动金融体系的演进和变革。     

How have global financial institutions responded to the challenges of the post-crisis era?

The study examines the largely unexplored effect of changes in the competitive landscape for large, global financial institutions on their ability to take risks, as well as deploy capital and labour in an efficient manner based on a novel measure of inefficiency. The analysis shows during 2001–2013 that inefficiency peaked during the 2008 crisis period and has fallen back to levels close to pre-crisis periods. The model also performs well in out-of-sample forecasts of the financial firms’ future market values. These results suggest that large financial firms have been adjusting to the ‘new normal’ of the post-crisis period and thus are able to use capital and labour more efficiently within the constraints of current market conditions. In addition, a non-linear pattern between inefficiency and a firm’s asset size suggests that there might be an optimal scale for such firms in the $450–650 billion range.     

International Experience,China’s Development and Prospect of Carbon Market Construction

Carbon market, which is capable of scientific quantifying and marked-based pricing of carbon emission, is an important way for countries to achieve the target of carbon emission reduction. The global carbon market, after more than ten years of development, has developed a mature mechanism. China started the trial of carbon market in 2011. After ten years of exploration, the national carbon trading market was officially launched in mid-July 2021. Against the backdrop of carbon neutrality, the national carbon market will shoulder a greater mission of carbon emission reduction and speed up its financialization and internationalization. However, it should take a dialectical attitude toward the opportunities and risks of carbon market financialization. In the future, China can promote the development of carbon market through efforts to develop market participants, clarify the attributes of carbon finance, prevent potential risks of carbon finance, improve the connection mechanism with the international carbon market, and innovate carbon finance services.     

股票市场量价关系分析——模型与实证

文章将行为金融学的分析方法引入到股票市场量价关系的研究中,在考虑市场参与者非理性行为———＂急于实现盈利＂同时＂不愿结算浮亏＂的前提下,首先通过供求分析,给出股票市场中的需求曲线与供给曲线,然后设定初始均衡,采用经济学中的比较静态分析方法,研究新信息到来时对初始均衡的影响,进而分析新信息的到来对成交量和价格的影响。模型的结论是＂成交量和成交价格的变动正相关＂、＂成交量和成交价格变动的绝对值正相关＂。使用计量经济学方法,基于中国A股市场的历史数据进行了实证检验,实证结果支持了模型的结论。通过进一步分析,文章最后还得出＂投资散户是股票市场的自动稳定器＂的结论。     

Quality uncertainty and time inconsistency in a durable good market

In a durable good monopoly where consumers cannot observe quality prior to purchase and product improvement occurs exogenously over time, I show that uncertainty in quality may resolve the time inconsistency problem (even for low levels of product improvement). Higher dispersion in quality creates greater demand for future product by increasing the incentive of buyers with inferior quality realizations to repeat purchase and this, in turn, reduces the incentive of the seller to cut future price. For various levels of product improvement, I characterize the range of quality uncertainty for which the market equilibrium is identical to one where the monopolist can credibly precommit to future prices. I also show that the presence of quality uncertainty can lead to no trading in the primary good market. Further, in contrast to the literature on the Coase conjecture, inability to precommit to future prices can reduce social welfare as a result of the market closure.     

The power of market mood — Evidence from an emerging market

This article focuses on investor behavior and, consequently, the mood in the market. By using a self-organizing network we develop a model which tries to capture the market mood and serves as an indicator of the reasonableness of selling or purchasing securities. In this sense, the final result of this model is the same as in the model-type prediction of future stock prices, with the only exception being that one is not required to know the concrete future values of the selected security. This will indirectly support the hypothesis that psychological factors are an important (if not key) market driving force.