Is the use of bank debt as a governance mechanism conditioned by the financial system? The cases of Chile and Spain

We test whether the use of bank debt as a governance mechanism is conditioned by the financial system in which firms operate. Our results indicate that the legal and institutional environment determines the use of bank debt to finance growth opportunities. Firms use bank debt to finance their growth opportunities when the country's banking system contributes to solving agency and asymmetric information problems and avoiding information monopoly costs. The evolutionary process of the financial systems in each country means that market imperfections such as information asymmetry or agency costs can have a diverse influence on firms’ bank debt decisions.     

How does organizational structure affect executive compensation?

Does the rise of the CFO as the second-ranked executive increase the status of the CEO? We find that, as a CFO becomes #2, a CEO receives higher pay in relative terms compared with other top executives. This result corresponds to the literature on span-of-control of executives in top management team.     

Is migration a good substitute for education subsidies?

Assuming a given educational policy, the recent brain drain literature reveals that skilled migration can boost the average level of schooling in developing countries. In this paper, we introduce educational subsidies determined by governments concerned by the number of skilled workers remaining in the country. Our theoretical analysis shows that developing countries can benefit from skilled emigration when educational subsidies entail high fiscal distortions. However when taxes are not too distortionary, it is desirable to impede emigration and subsidize education. We then investigate the empirical relationship between educational subsidies and migration prospects, obtaining a negative relationship for 105 countries. Based on this result, we revisit the country specific effects of skilled migration upon human capital. We show that the endogeneity of public subsidies reduces the number of winners and increases the magnitude of the losses.     

Is external debt sustainable? A probabilistic approach

We develop a probabilistic approach to measure a country's external debt sustainability. Using data on international investment position and balance of payments from the International Monetary Fund, we estimate a vector autoregressive model for 38 countries (11 developed and 27 developing). Using the estimated parameters, we perform a Monte Carlo simulation to compute the distribution of the capacity to repay for each country. A large portion of the projected distribution to the right of current debt is a warning indicator, signalling the need for devaluation. We provide simulations for each country. One scenario is where the discount factor is lower than 1. According to the literature, this situation should prevail in the medium and long run. A quite different situation is where external sustainability is achieved because of a simulated discount factor of more than 1. Here, interest on debt is lower than GDP growth. This situation is associated with dynamic inefficiency. The results suggest that flight to safety is penalising some developing countries, whilst benefiting some developed countries.     

Do credit unions have distinct objectives? Evidence from executive compensation structures

Credit unions compete directly with commercial banks in markets for consumer financial services yet receive an exemption from federal corporate income tax. Commercial banks claim that credit unions are no different than banks and that the credit union tax exemption represents an unfair competitive advantage. Credit unions counter that while they offer similar products and services, they differ from commercial banks in terms of structure and mission, given their not-for-profit, cooperative status. In this paper, we test for substantive differences in the objective functions of commercial banks and nonprofit credit unions by comparing CEO compensation structures. Drawing on the relevant principal–agent literature, we provide several arguments to support the hypotheses that credit union boards of directors establish lower-powered incentive contracts with their CEOs relative to similarly sized commercial banks, and offer lower total compensation. We find that credit union CEOs receive approximately 250% less performance-based compensation relative to CEOs of similarly sized community banks. Bank CEOs also earn approximately 15% to 20% more total compensation on average. The results are generally robust to controlling for CEO- and board-level characteristics, local economic conditions, and institution-level indicators of size, growth, complexity, liquidity and risk. The findings suggest important differences in incentive structures and objectives between banks and credit unions.     

Is cannabis a gateway to hard drugs?

The gateway hypothesis proposes that use of cannabis directly increases the risk of consuming hard drugs. We test this controversial, but influential, hypothesis on a sample of cannabis users, exploiting a unique set of drug price data. A flexible approach is developed to identify the causal gateway effect using a bivariate survival model with shared frailty estimated using a latent class approach. The model suggests two distinct groups; a smaller group of “troubled youths” for whom there is a statistically significant gateway effect that more than doubles the hazard of starting to use hard drugs and a larger fraction of youths for whom previous cannabis use has less impact.     

Regional debt in monetary unions: Is it inflationary?

This paper studies the inflationary implications of interest bearing regional debt in a monetary union. Is this debt simply backed by future taxation with no inflationary consequences? Or will the circulation of region debt induce monetization by a central bank?We argue here that both outcomes can arise in equilibrium. In the model economy, there are multiple equilibria which reflect the perceptions of agents regarding the manner in which the debt obligations will be met. In one equilibrium, termed Ricardian, the future obligations are met with taxation by a regional government while in the other, termed Monetization, the central bank is induced to print money to finance the region's obligations. The multiplicity of equilibria reflects a commitment problem of the central bank. A key indicator of the selected equilibrium is the distribution of regional debt holdings. We show that regional governments, anticipating central bank financing of their debt obligations, have an incentive to create excessively large deficits. We use the model to assess the impact of some policy measures within a monetary union as well as dollarization.     

Addiction to debt forgiveness in developing countries: Consequences and who gets picked?

We explore whether the expectation of debt forgiveness discourages developing countries from attaining sustainable fiscal independence through improving their tax effort. While the international financial community advises poor countries to improve revenue mobilization, the same international community routinely bails out poor countries that fail to meet their loan repayment obligations, among other reasons as a result of the low tax effort they exercise. The act of bailing out creates an expectation about receiving debt forgiveness time and again in the future. The key prediction of our theoretical framework is that in the presence of debt forgiveness, countries’ tax efforts will decline and more so the higher the intensity of the bailouts. We test this proposition using data for 55 countries from 1995 to 2015. We find that debt forgiveness is significant in lowering tax effort. In addressing the potential of reverse causality, we also find that the international financial community has been more forgiving to countries that exert lower tax effort. These results, which are robust to various specifications, have significant policy implications for donor and recipient countries.     

Are covered bonds a substitute for mortgage-backed securities?

Given the problems in the mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market during the financial crisis, some suggest that covered bonds (CB) might be a substitute for MBS. This could lead to a number of policy alternatives in countries where regulation and business have been mainly leaning to one of these types of securities. Examining the use of CB and MBS in the U.S. and Europe, we find that the two often seem to be used for different purposes. Banks are more likely to use CB when they have liquidity needs while MBS are associated with risk management and agency problems. Introducing MBS to markets where only CB are common or CB to markets where only MBS are common could have large effects.     

Is trade liberalization a solution to the unemployment problem?

This paper examines how trade liberalization affects the growth rate of sectoral employment in developed and developing countries. The estimation results imply that trade openness in the form of higher trade volumes has not been successful in generating jobs in developing countries. The overall weak, negative employment response to trade volumes may be explained by the negative output response to trade openness in these countries. Our estimates also indicate that higher trade volumes have adverse effect on industrial employment in developed countries. Moreover, while they have positive effect on employment in industry and services in developing countries, trade barriers have adverse effect on employment growth in services for developed countries. Our overall results imply that while trade barriers have relatively little adverse effects and/or in some case a positive effect on employment both in developing and developed countries, higher trade volumes have an adverse effect on industrial employment in developed economies. Thus, trade openness is not in itself a solution to the unemployment problems of developing countries and yet it has not been the prime factor to blame for the lower employment levels in developed countries.     

Is inflation targeting a good remedy to control inflation?

Since the 1990s inflation targeting (IT) has been adopted by several central banks as a strategy for monetary policy. It is expected that the adoption of this monetary regime can reduce inflation and inflation volatility. This article is concerned with these issues and makes use of the Propensity Score Matching methodology on a sample of 180 countries for the period from 1990 to 2007. For analysis, the sample is split into two sets of countries (advanced and developing). The findings suggest that the adoption of IT is an ideal monetary regime for developing economies and, in addition to reducing inflation volatility, can drive inflation down to internationally acceptable levels. Regarding advanced economies, the adoption of IT does not appear to represent an advantageous strategy. In brief, the empirical results indicate that the adoption of IT is useful for countries that must enhance their credibility for the management of monetary policy.     

Is Marx's absolute rent due to a monopoly price?

ABSTRACT

Absolute rent, in Marx's view, has an upper limit represented by the difference between the value and the price of production of agricultural commodities. The relevance of this limit was questioned by Bortkiewicz because of the difficulties concerning the argument which Marx based it on. The lack of this upper limit prompted some scholars to claim that there is no difference between absolute rent and a rent paid by a monopoly price. Referring to the classical/Marxian theory of monopoly price, we shall argue that it is still possible to distinguish absolute rent from a rent due to a monopoly price.     

Does capital and financing structure have any relevance to the performance of microfinance institutions?

This paper aims to explore the impact of capital and financing structure on the performance of microfinance institutions (MFIs) from an agency theoretic standpoint. GMM and IV estimations with instruments have been performed using a panel dataset of 782 MFIs in 92 countries for the period 2000–2007. Results confirm the agency theoretic claim that an increase in leverage raises profit-efficiency in MFIs. The study also finds that cost efficiency deteriorates with decreasing leverage. Likewise, the negative significant impact of leverage on depth of outreach can also be explained. However, the study finds that capital structure does not have any noticeable impact on breadth of outreach and neither is it significantly related with women’s participation as loan clients.     

What causes household debt to increase in South Africa?

The 2007–2008 US subprime mortgage crisis evolved into a financial crisis that negatively affected many economies in the world and was afterwards widely referred to as the global financial crisis. Since the beginning of this financial crisis of 2008–2009, South Africa experienced a significant increase in its household debt to income ratio. In the main, this paper investigates the prominent factors contributing to the rise in the level of household debt in South Africa. Specifically, we construct a model for South African household debt through the application of a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). We employ quarterly time series data throughout the timeline 1985 Q1 to 2012 Q1 and all the econometric tests are analyzed using the statistical software package EViews 7. Our results confirmed the existence of a long run cointegrating relationship between household debt and other macroeconomic determinants. Increasing household debt was found to be significantly affected by positive changes in consumer price index, gross domestic product and household consumption. Also, house prices and household savings were found to positively contribute to a rise in household debt but this relationship was found to be statistically insignificant. Alternatively, household borrowing was found to be significantly and insignificantly affected by negative changes in income and prime rate, respectively. Ultimately, the existence of a long run cointegrated relationship enabled us to build an error correction model for household debt which will facilitate future forecasting.     

External debt and economic reform: does a pain reliever delay the necessary treatment?

Recent literature argues that conflict in shifting adjustment costs between different socioeconomic groups delays necessary reforms and finds that such reforms often follow economic crises. This paper expands these models by including external borrowing by the private sector and shows that this may lead to a further delay in economic reform. Empirical evidence based on a large panel of developing and emerging economies supports this argument and shows that the result is slower economic growth. External financing sometimes acts like a “pain reliever”, postponing the much needed “treatment” of a “sick” economy by reform.     

Is centralization a solution to the soft budget constraint problem?

This paper focuses on the centralization program implemented in Israel in 2004 to analyze whether the administrative subordination of municipalities is an effective policy to deal with problems related to soft-budget constraint of lower level governments. The results consistently show, for different specifications and samples of municipalities, that this program brought a substantial decrease of municipalities’ expenditures (mostly because of decreases in salary payments), and an increase of local property tax collection. Our analysis shows that all of the fiscal impact of the program is due to the appointment of an accountant that reports directly to the central government, a relatively mild form of administrative subordination. In contrast, more intrusive forms of subordination, like the central imposition of a recovery program, do not result in any substantial improvement of municipalities’ fiscal situation. This leads us to conclude that a mild form of administrative subordination is an effective tool to cope with problems related to soft-budget constraints, whereas political subordination is not an effective tool to reach that goal.     

How to assess debt sustainability? Some theory and empirical evidence for selected euro area countries

In this article we elaborate on the test proposed by Bohn (1998) that suggests to study whether the primary surplus relative to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a positive function of the public debt to GDP ratio in order to detect whether debt policies are sustainable. We argue that this should be complemented by additional tests for countries with rising debt to GDP ratios. We, then, apply that test to some countries of the euro area. In addition, we perform stationarity tests with respect to the real deficit inclusive of interest payments in order to gain additional insight. We conclude that there is empirical evidence that the chosen paths of fiscal policies are sustainable for the countries we consider, although there are country specific differences in debt policies.