Discrepancies between ex ante and ex post efficiency under identical subjective probabilities

Summary. Starr (1973) showed that, if people have different subjective probabilities, ex ante and ex post efficiency conflict. Conversely, under the simple preferences that he considered, the discrepancy between ex ante and ex post efficiency disappears when subjective probabilities are identical. Here I consider identical subjective probabilities, but more general preferences. First, risk attraction is admitted. Second, I dispense with the double requirement (dubbed IZU) of additive separability and state-independence of the utility of zero-date consumption, an unrealistic requirement when modeling the investment in durable goods. I find that, under IZU, and as long as ex post preferences satisfy the natural assumption of quasiconcavity (and satisfy some technical qualifications), an ex ante efficient allocation is indeed ex post efficient, but the converse is not necessarily true under risk attraction. If, on the other hand, IZU is violated, then one can have ex ante efficient allocations that are not ex post efficient, and vice-versa, even under risk aversion. Received: June 25, 1999; revised version: March 2001     

More pessimism than greediness: a characterization of monotone risk aversion in the rank-dependent expected utility model

Summary. This paper studies monotone risk aversion, the aversion to monotone, mean-preserving increase in risk (Quiggin [21]), in the Rank Dependent Expected Utility (RDEU) model. This model replaces expected utility by another functional, characterized by two functions, a utility function u in conjunction with a probability-perception function f. Monotone mean-preserving increases in risk are closely related to the notion of comparative dispersion introduced by Bickel and Lehmann [3,4] in Non-parametric Statistics. We present a characterization of the pairs (u,f) of monotone risk averse decision makers, based on an index of greediness G _u of the utility function u and an index of pessimism P _f of the probability perception function f: the decision maker is monotone risk averse if and only if . The index of greediness (non-concavity) of u is the supremum of taken over . The index of pessimism of f is the infimum of taken over 0 < v < 1. Thus, , with G _u = 1 iff u is concave. If then , i.e., f is majorized by the identity function. Since P _f = 1 for Expected Utility maximizers, forces u to be concave in this case; thus, the characterization of risk aversion as is a direct generalization from EU to RDEU. A novel element is that concavity of u is not necessary. In fact, u must be concave only if P _f = 1.Received: 10 April 2001, Revised: 18 November 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: D81. Correspondence to: Michéle CohenAlain Chateauneuf, Michéle Cohen, Isaac Meilijson: We are most grateful to Mark Machina, Peter Wakker and two anonymous referees for very helpful suggestions and comments.     

Quantifying the Subjective Value of Certainty

Traditional measures of risk preference require that an agent's utility function be twice differentiable and that the risk be miniscule. We introduce a discrete index that requires no assumptions regarding the functional form of utility or the magnitude of the risk. The index quantifies the value of certainty by contrasting the relief that one experiences from the absence of a loss to the regret that (s)he feels at a foregone opportunity for gain. It exhibits a consistent range across different data types, and signals any economically irrational behavior. Empirical estimates are made with reservation price data and reservation probability data.     

On the willingness to pay to reduce risks of small losses

While willingness to pay is a common concept to measure the benefit gained from a reduction in the probability of loss, it is still questionable how it is linked to risk aversion and risk elimination behaviors, and how it is affected by the presence of an exogenous source of risk. By focusing only on risks of small losses, this article sheds light on these three issues and provides new results on the determinants of the willingness to pay.      

Natural vs. financial insurance in the management of public-good ecosystems

In the face of uncertainty, ecosystems can provide natural insurance to risk averse users of ecosystem services. We employ a conceptual ecological-economic model in which ecosystem management has a private insurance value and, through ecosystem processes at higher hierarchical levels, generates a positive externality on other ecosystem users. We analyze the allocation of (endogenous) risk and ecosystem quality by risk averse ecosystem managers who have access to financial insurance, and study the implications for individually and socially optimal ecosystem management, and policy design. We show that while an improved access to financial insurance leads to lower ecosystem quality, the effect on the extent of the public-good problem and on welfare is determined by ecosystem properties. We derive conditions on ecosystem functioning under which, if financial insurance becomes more accessible, (i) the extent of optimal regulation increases or decreases; and (ii) welfare, in the absence of environmental regulation, increases or decreases.     

On the informational content of advice: a theoretical and experimental study

This paper examines the market for advice and the underlying perception that advice is useful and informative. We do this by first providing a theoretical examination of the informational content of advice and then by setting up a series of experimental markets where this advice is sold. In these markets we provide bidders with a demographic profile of the “experts” offering advice.The results of our experiment generate several interesting findings. The raw bid data suggest that subjects bid significantly more for data than they do for advice. Second, in the market for advice there appears to be no consensus as to who are the best advisors although on average economists demand the highest mean price and women suffer a discount. In addition, we find that whether a subject suffers from a representativeness bias in the way he or she processes data has an impact on how he or she bids for advice and on his or her willingness to follow it once offered. Finally, we find that on average people impute a low level of informativeness onto advice, consistent with their bidding behavior for data versus advice.This work was done under grant number SES-0425118 of the National Science Foundation. The authors would like to recognize the Center for Experimental Social Science at New York University for its additional support. We also acknowledge the help of Elizabeth Potamites for her research assistance.     

Housing choices,sorting, and the distribution of educational benefits under deferred acceptance

I study the welfare and distributional consequences of introducing the student‐proposing deferred acceptance in a model where schools have exogenous qualities and the benefit from attending a school is supermodular in school quality and student type. Unlike neighborhood assignment, deferred acceptance induces nonpositive assortative matching where higher type students do not necessarily choose neighborhoods with better schools. Student types are more heterogeneous within neighborhoods under deferred acceptance. Assuming an elastic housing supply, deferred acceptance benefits residents in lower quality neighborhoods with more access to higher quality schools. Moreover, more parents will “vote with their feet” for deferred acceptance, other things equal, than for neighborhood assignment.     

Uncertainty and sustainability in the management of rangelands

We analyze a dynamic and stochastic ecological-economic model of grazing management in semi-arid rangelands. The ecosystem is driven by stochastic precipitation. A risk averse farmer chooses a grazing management strategy under uncertainty such as to maximize expected utility from farming income. Grazing management strategies are rules about which share of the rangeland is given rest depending on the actual rainfall in that year. In a first step we determine a myopic farmer's optimal grazing management strategy and show that a risk averse farmer chooses a strategy such as to obtain insurance from the ecosystem: the optimal strategy reduces income variability, but yields less mean income than possible. In a second step we analyze the long-run ecological and economic impact of different strategies. We conclude that a myopic farmer, if he is sufficiently risk averse, will choose a sustainable grazing management strategy, even if he does not take into account long-term ecological and economic benefits of conservative strategies.     

房地产信托投资非预期风险评价方法及应用研究

房地产信托投资所具有的投资大、周期长、项目质量要求高、同业竞争激烈、流动性较弱等特征,决定了其面临的风险更多地表现为非预期性。本文从行业、项目、开发商、信托公司等方面分析了房地产信托投资非预期风险的成因,并归纳了非预期风险因素的构成因子,根据多级模糊综合评价原理,以某房地产信托投资业务为研究对象,在充分调研和对数据资料实施规范化处理的基础上,构建了非预期风险评价模型,对各类非预期风险因素进行了三级模糊综合评价,识别了各非预期风险因素的重要性程度,为房地产信托投资机构评价、监测、控制房地产信托投资业务的非预期风险提供了重要的信息支持。     

基于熵的供应链合作伙伴风险评估与选择方法

供应链合作伙伴选择影响因素错综复杂,协调关系繁多,是企业风险管理中的重点和难点,其风险评估对于提高供应链的运营效率和企业核心竞争力具有重要价值.本文将熵理论引入到企业风险管理中,提出了基于熵的供应链合作伙伴风险评估与选择方法.首先,简要介绍了信息熵、熵权、直觉模糊熵以及直觉模糊熵权等基础理论知识;其次,分析了供应链合作伙伴的主要风险因素,并且详细论述了直觉模糊熵权方法和传统熵权方法分别在主观风险指标和客观风险指标权重确定方面的应用方法;最后对熵理论在评估合作伙伴风险方面的应用效果进行了实例分析,并将其评估结果与原文献的结果进行了比较.同实际应用效果分析与结果对比,验证了该方法的合理性和有效性,以及在评估风险方面所具有的优越性,因此,该方法可以在供应链企业风险管理中得到推广应用.     

金融危机下全球保险业风险管理策略调整新动向

2007年发端于美国的次贷危机迅速演变为全球性金融危机,各国金融业损失惨重,作为金融业三大支柱之一的保险业也未能幸免。本文分析了金融危机冲击下全球保险业的风险变动和随之引发的保险业风险管理策略新动向,同时这些变革也给我国保险业在未来的改革与发展中,如何防范风险、健康成长带来深刻启示。     

有关外贸企业信用风险及其管理的研究

随着我国市场经济的不断发展,外贸企业之间的竞争日益激烈。很多外贸企业为了占据国外市场,会推出优惠的信用条件,以此作为增加客户的手段,但其信用风险也会随之增加。分析了导致外贸企业信用风险增加的原因,并提出对应管理措施。只有不断降低信用风险,以此提高外贸企业的竞争力,才能使企业不断扩大经营规模,促进企业的不断发展。     

Testing the Gaussian and Student's t copulas in a risk management framework

This paper introduces a semiparametric framework for selecting either a Gaussian or a Student's t copula in a d-dimensional setting. We compare the two models using four different approaches: (i) four goodness-of-fit graphical plots, (ii) a bootstrapped correlation matrix generated in each scenario with the empirical correlation matrix used as a benchmark, (iii) Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) as risk measures, and (iv) co-Value-at-Risk (CoVaR) and Marginal Expected Shortfall (MES) as co-risk measures. We illustrate this four-step procedure using a portfolio of daily returns of six international stock indices. The VaR results confirm that the t-based copula model is an attractive alternative to the Gaussian. The ES analysis is less conclusive, and indicates that risk managers should jointly use the risk measure as well as the copula model. The results highlight the importance of promoting stress testing rather than ES in the risk management industry, particularly in the aftermath of a financial crisis.     

基于公司治理视角的商业银行内部审计研究

独立、有效的内部审计是商业银行完善风险管理,强化内部控制,改进治理程序的重要监控、保证机制。我国商业银行内部审计在实际运行中存在一些缺陷和不足,影响了内部审计应有功能的发挥。针对目前我国商业银行内部审计状况,应从公司治理视角采取综合改进措施,确保商业银行内部审计功能的实现。     

商业银行信用卡业务发展与风险管理

回顾信用卡业务在我国的发展历程、分析信用卡业务的发展现状,不难发现中国已成为全球信用卡业务增长最快、发展潜力最大的市场。作为未来消费信贷的重要增长点,在金融行业民间资本准入制度的放开、全球化进程不断深入、移动互联快速普及的大数据时代,民间资本、外资银行对信用卡业务的广泛渗透,以及互联网金融的创新发展,必将导致国内信用卡业务参与方关系日趋复杂,信用卡市场竞争日趋激烈。因此,信用卡业务发展过程中所面临的问题及发行风险不容忽视。文中采用行为概率及效用函数的方法对信用卡消费行为进行博弈分析,应用行为分析的结果,对信用卡业务中诸如个人信用登记评估制度,发卡机构营销、审批机制和产品附加值,消费管理和奖惩制度及法律法规制定等相关问题进行了剖析,系统分析了银行信用卡发行过程中的风险,并对信用卡市场的健康发展提出了几点建议。     

我国林业上市公司信用风险研究——基于KMV模型

文章以我国沪深两市A股林业上市公司为研究对象,选取2007-2012年首次成为ST的8家公司和对应的8家非ST公司为研究样本,运用KMV模型研究我国林业上市公司信用风险。实证过程中,文章根据我国林业公司特点研究确定KMV模型中各参数的计算方法,计算出在不同违约点下各个样本的违约距离,主要结论:财务危机前非ST公司与ST公司的违约距离表现出显著差异,运用KMV模型能够有效识别我国林业上市公司的信用风险状况;我国林业上市公司的违约点应设定为短期负债加上50%长期负债;在研究连续两年违约距离的基础上,构建了我国林业上市公司两级信用风险预警体系。     

供应链管理下物流外包风险研究

结合了现代企业理论中的交易费用理论、委托代理理论和供应链管理理论,对物流外包风险进行了深入的剖析,提出了供应链环境下物流外包风险分析的四阶段模型,同时提出了相应的风险规避策略。     

Volatility spillovers and the global financial cycle across economies: Evidence from a global semi-structural model

The paper provides some evidence on the relevance of global uncertainty and risk aversion and the lesser importance of US interest rates for the global financial and business cycles. As framework, we use a global semi-structural model augmented with financial and trade interlinkages. Financial interlinkages are modelled with proposed global uncertainty, global risk aversion and global financial cycle channels. Trade interlinkages are modelled with proposed value-chain trade equations. We find that global uncertainty and global risk aversion are, by far, the main volatility factors in all economies. Other volatility factors such as US interest rates, foreign interest rates and trade-related factors rarely explain shares of forecast error variance above one percent.     

信用衍生品的价值分析及其市场功效研究

信用衍生产品被称为90年代最重要的金融创新工具在最近几年飞速发展，它在保留资产的情况下，将信用风险从市场风险中分离出来，使得最后一种重要的不可交易的风险-信用风险变得可以交易和管理，从根本上改变了信用风险管理的传统特征，本文介绍了信用衍生品的结构，分析了信用衍生品的价值，并就信用衍生品的市场功效进行论述，最后提出我国发展信用衍生品的建议。     

Risk-Cost Analysis for the Regulation of Airborne Toxic Substances in a Developing Context: The Case of Arsenic in Chile

Most developing countries are just beginning to takeenvironmental protection seriously. In some cases it is common tocopy regulations from developed countries; however, determininghow much protection is required is difficult, ideally requiringthat the costs and risks be considered to propose a realistic andeffective policy. Chile has serious problems with arsenicpollution associated to emissions from its copper smelters. Toregulate these emissions, a strict ambient concentrationstandard, applicable to the whole country, is being proposed thatreduces risks to an acceptable level. However, little is knownabout the exposure and health effects associated to currentemission levels, and the corresponding costs of reducingemissions. The results of a three-year project that combinesengineering, economics and health information sheds light onthese costs and risks for different values of ambient standards.These show that there are ``win--win' options that obtainsignificant health improvements at low, even negative, costs.However, costs quickly increase as the concentration standardbecomes more stringent, with few additional health benefits. Inmany locations naturally high background levels of arsenic makeit very costly or even impossible to reach the desired goal.These results make it necessary to examine the use of a case-by-caseregulation for each source, rather than a general one basedon a unique ambient quality goal. They also suggest that copyingstandards or risk criteria used in developed contexts can beextremely expensive.