Analysis of the impact of excess mortgages on housing prices using the cointegration test

This article attempts to explain and predict housing prices by constructing a model based on the variables that most influence demand: the theoretical purchase effort index without tax deductions as well as a new and innovative indicator that includes the excess of mortgages granted. The Johansen methodology for cointegration analysis reveals the existence of long-run equilibrium and the model’s subsequent ECM, to verify the statistical significance of the variables, confirms the validity of the model concerning this Spanish case study.     

美国金融危机成因分析及对中国的警示

美国金融危机引发全球金融市场动荡。这场金融危机从美国的房地产市场开始,以惊人的速度蔓延,波及至信贷市场、资本市场,封全球尤其是西方金融机构和金融市场造成重大冲击,短期内升级为全球金融风暴。中国目前正处于资产价格上涨、信贷投放过度的经济环境之中,美国的金融危机给中国敲响了警钟。本文通过描述此次危机的发展脉络,在分析美国金融危机背景的基础上,从强化房地产按揭贷款业务风险管理,审慎推进资产证券化等六个方面得出了对中国的警示。     

Dynamic correlation and equicorrelation analysis of global financial turmoil: evidence from emerging East Asian stock markets

This study investigates the dynamic conditional correlations (DCCs) between eight emerging East Asian stock markets and the US stock market and analyses the dynamic equicorrelation among these nine stock markets. We find a significant increase in the conditional correlations and equicorrelation in the first phase of the global financial crisis. We refer to this finding as contagion from the US stock market to the emerging East Asian markets. We also find an additional significant process of increasing correlations and equicorrelation (herding) in the second phase of the global financial crisis. Further, we employ two new models, namely DCCX-MGARCH (a DCC Multivariate GARCH model with exogenous variables) and DECOX-MGARCH (a dynamic equicorrelation multivariate GARCH model with exogenous variables), to identify the channels of contagion. We find that an increase in the VIX Index increases the conditional correlations and equicorrelation, while increases in TED spreads decrease the conditional correlations of six emerging East Asian countries with the USA. We compare the accuracy of the conditional correlation estimates of the DCC and DCCX models (or DECO and DECOX models) by constructing a loss function. We find that the DCCX (DECOX) model provides more accurate conditional correlation estimates than the DCC (DECO) model by extracting additional information from exogenous variables.     

Superstition and real estate prices: transaction-level evidence from the US housing market

We investigate the impact of superstition on prices paid by Chinese-American home buyers. Chinese consider 8 lucky and 4 unlucky. Lacking explicit buyer ethnicity identifiers, we develop a binomial name classifier, a machine learning approach applicable to any data set containing names, that allows for falsification tests using other ethnic groups, and mitigates ambiguity from the transliteration of Chinese characters into the Latin alphabet. Chinese buyers pay 1–2% premiums for addresses including an 8 and 1% discounts for addresses including a 4. These results are unrelated to unobserved property quality; no premium exists when Chinese sell to non-Chinese. The persistence of superstitions reflects the extent of cultural assimilation.     

The housing market,macroeconomic activity and fiancial innovation: an empirical analysis of US data

Recently, several studies have emphasized the role of R&D expenditure in determining Total Factor Productivity (TFP). In this paper it is shown that the relationship between R&D variables and TFP is far from being established. In particular, by using data for the Italian economy, it is found that the estimated effects of R&D variables on TFP crucially depends on: (i) the way in which the production function, used to derive Solow residuals, is defined; (ii) the numbers of maintained hypotheses used to estimate Solow residuals; (iii) the level of aggregation of the data employed in the empirical analysis.     

Private consumption behaviour, liquidity constraints and financial deregulation in France: a nonlinear analysis

This paper examines the effect of financial deregulation on consumption expenditure in France during the period 1970–1993. A nonlinear model for consumption which allows for liquidity constraints through a time-varying parameter dependent on a proxy for financial deregulation is estimated using nonlinear instrumental variables. It is concluded that in France financial deregulation has significantly reduced liquidity constraints faced by consumers, allowing a higher percentage of the population to smooth consumption over time. Evidence is also provided that the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is not significantly different from zero at conventional nominal levels of significance. First version received: January 1997/final version received: May 1999     

基层财政解困:一个财政体制变迁的分析框架

基层财政困难已影响到部分地方经济发展与社会稳定,是迫切需要解决的问题.基层财政陷入困境的最直接根源是财政体制不规范,事权与财权高度不对称.解困的根本出路在于规范政府间财政关系,进行财政体制创新.但财政体制变迁不能局限于边际微调,须考虑政府财政级次问题.本文提出推行"省管县"体制与撤消乡镇级政府两项改革,将政府层级由五级简化为三级,对应形成三级财政.并以这三级财政为架构,重新设计财政体制,合理配置政府间事权财权,以推动基层财政彻底解困.     

The polarization impact of the crisis on the Eurozone labour markets: a hierarchical cluster analysis

This study assesses the impact of the Great Recession (2008–2014) on the process of integration of the Eurozone labour markets. Through an agglomerative hierarchical cluster analysis using several European labour market harmonized indicators, we find that the crisis led to a greater integration, and to a polarization within the area. In the aftermath of crisis, two groups of countries clearly emerged, consisting Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg and Netherlands in the core while Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain in the periphery.     

The countercyclical role of Italian local banks during the financial crisis

The article analyses the role of local banks in Italy during the 2008–2009 crisis from the perspective of the relationship lending model. During the crisis, the risk of cascading failures of financial organizations has dramatically increased, thus causing a return of attention to local banking as a possible source of countercyclical behaviours in the financial markets thanks to their ability to establish fiduciary long-term relationships with small businesses.

The purpose of this article is to test this hypothesis and to disentangle the response of local banks during the financial turmoil according to their governance structure and location. Our results show that non-independent local banks and, to a limited extent, cooperative banks located in the rural area actually played a significant countercyclical role across the crisis. Policy implications suggest that prudential supervision should rethink the indicators of systemic risk in order to differentiate banks according to their capability of mitigating it.     

孟加拉国国乡村银行运作模式对中国农村金融体制改革的启示

随着中国现代农业发展及新农村建设的稳步推进，农村金融市场多元化竞争格局已经形成。然而，农村领域金融资源的流失，金融服务难以适应新形势的要求等问题已成为制约中国农村经济、社会发展的瓶颈。盂加拉国银行家穆罕默德。尤努斯及其创办的乡村银行因为其帮助穷人摆脱贫困和创造社会发展机会方面的贡献而荣获2006年度诺贝尔和平奖。本文结合中国农村金融服务现状，借鉴盂加拉国国乡村银行运行的经验，提出了新时期深化农村金融体制改革，积极推追现代农业与新农村建设的若干启示与建议。     

新形势下家庭经济困难学生资助体系存在的问题及对策研究

为解决家庭经济困难学生的学习、生活等问题,我国高校对家庭经济困难学生实行“奖、贷、补、助、勤、减、免”等一系列资助政策,取得一定的成效,但在实际操作过程中存在许多问题。从探讨家庭经济困难学生资助存在的问题出发,提出完善家庭经济困难学生资助的对策建议。     

基于系统动力学下黑龙江省科技创新的金融支持研究

基于黑龙江省2000—2010年统计年鉴公布的数据,定量分析了金融对科技创新的支持作用,构建了黑龙江省金融对科技创新支持的动态模拟流图及系统动力学模型,并通过VensimV5.9仿真模拟.利用该模型从增加财政投入、金融业发展规模及加大金融业参与科技创新的协作力度三方面设定模拟方案,分析了金融支持对科技创新的影响,对今后几年科技创新的关键指标进行了预测,并提出了为提高关键指标应采取的措施,为管理决策提供了参考依据.     

浅谈房地产企业财务管理体系

由美国次贷危机引起的国际金融危机使我国房地产行业动荡不安,面对低迷的国际经济形势,房地产行业要实现长远发展,获得持续性核心竞争力,必须提高财务管理水平,防止金融危机造成房地产市场的过热或崩塌。     

The effects of a financial literacy intervention on the financial and economic knowledge of high school students

The authors taught financial concepts to students in 12th-grade economics classes, where one treatment was intensive in money management (MM) topics and the other was intensive in financial investment (FI) topics. Two control groups, consisting of 11th-grade students with no exposure to economics and 12th-grade economics students, received no treatment. Both treatment groups showed a 13 percentage point increase in test scores from pretest to posttest, while neither control group showed gains. Neither treatment group outperformed the other in the financial literacy test.     

赤道原则——金融机构社会责任的新典范

在当今的社会环境下,企业越来越意识到履行社会责任的重要性。尤其在金融危机、全球化背景、可持续金融理念、新能源政策的影响下,金融机构也开始认识到履行社会责任对自身的正面效应。赤道原则作为一种自愿性的企业贷款金融行业基准,旨在强调金融机构在企业融资中发挥的重要引导作用,规避对社会环境有害项目的实施,更好的促进人类、社会、自然的和谐发展。     

财务分析在企业发展中的重要作用

财务分析是以财务报告及其相关资料为主要依据,对企业的财务状况和经营成果进行评价和剖析,反映企业在运营过程中的利弊得失、发展趋势,从而为改进企业财务管理工作和优化经济决策提供重要的财务信息。财务分析是分析企业经济发展的有效手段,通过对企业投资收益能力、企业资金周转情况等的分析,可了解企业的发展状况和普遍存在的问题,为企业长期稳固发展提供重要依据。     

Dynamic R&D choice and the impact of the firm's financial strength

ABSTRACT

This article investigates how a firm's financial strength affects its dynamic decision to invest in R&D. We estimate a dynamic model of R&D choice using data for German firms in high-tech manufacturing industries. The model incorporates a measure of the firm's financial strength, derived from its credit rating, which is shown to lead to substantial differences in estimates of the costs and expected long-run benefits from R&D investment. Financially strong firms have a higher probability of generating innovations from their R&D investment, and the innovations have a larger impact on productivity and profits. Averaging across all firms, the long-run benefit of investing in R&D equals 6.6% of firm value. It ranges from 11.6% for firms in a strong financial position to 2.3% for firms in a weaker financial position.     

The time-varying characteristics of the Chinese financial cycle and impact from the United States

ABSTRACT

Although there have been many empirical studies about the financial cycle since the financial crisis of 2008, few have analysed the structural changes in the Chinese financial cycle over time. The Chinese financial development process is short, and it is difficult to obtain accurate results on the measurement of the financial cycle. Based on wavelet analysis, this paper analyzes the time-varying characteristics of the Chinese financial cycle and the relationship between the financial and business cycles. In addition, we measure the impact from the United States. This paper draws three conclusions. Firstly, in terms of the characteristics of cycles, the existence of Chinese business cycle and financial cycle is proved, while the credit cycle, leverage cycle, stock market cycle and property cycle are quite different. Specifically, China has a 5.8-year credit cycle, an 8-year stock market cycle, 3.4-year and 12-year business cycles and a 15-year leverage cycle. Secondly, the financial cycles can serve as leading indicators of the business cycle, though the relationships between them are change overtime. Finally, the United States has a significant impact on the Chinese financial cycle with a ‘decoupling-recoupling’ effect, which is mainly reflected in the leverage cycle and the stock market cycle.     

浙江民营经济转型升级的金融支持体系研究

浙江民营经济面临转型升级,这需要金融支持体系促进这一进程。本文从经济转型升级与金融支持的互动关系入手,分析浙江金融支持民营经济转型升级的现状和制约性因素,进而提出构建浙江民营经济转型升级的金融支持体系的基本思路,从而为浙江当前继续保持经济、金融平稳较快发展做出有益的探讨。