Learning by Holding and Liquidity

A number of assets do not trade publicly but are sold to a restricted group of investors who subsequently receive private information from the issuers. Thus, the holders of such privately placed assets learn more quickly about their assets than other agents. This paper studies the pricing implications of this "learning by holding". In an economy in which investors are price takers and risk-neutral, and absent any insider trading or other transaction costs, we show that risky assets command an excess expected return over safe assets in the presence of learning by holding. This is reminiscent of the "credit spread puzzle"—the large spread between BBB-rated and AAA-rated corporate bonds that is not explained by historical defaults, risk aversion, or trading frictions. The intuition is that the seller of a risky bond needs to offer a "coordination premium" that helps potential buyers overcome their fear of future illiquidity. Absent this premium, this fear could become self-justified in the presence of learning by holding because a future lemons problem deters current market participation, and this in turn vindicates the fear of a future lemons problem.     

Does illiquidity matter in residential properties?

No, it does not, despite the general perception that illiquidity matters in real estate. As expected, our evidence shows that the illiquidity costs for the U.S. residential properties are large. The costs are equivalent to 12% of the total property returns on average, ranging from 9.5% to 29.5% of property prices depending on the illiquidity level and market conditions. However, when amortized by holding periods, monthly illiquidity costs are on average 0.08%, and illiquidity risk does not appear to be priced in residential properties; illiquid properties do not show higher returns than liquid properties. On the contrary, we find evidence of flight-to-quality in bull markets, that is, high-quality illiquid properties are preferred to low-quality liquid properties in buoyant markets. These results are in sharp contrast with those in equities and bonds where flight-to-liquidity has been reported when markets are in stress.     

Equilibrium valuation of illiquid assets

Summary. We develop an equilibrium model of illiquid asset valuation based on search and matching. We propose several measures of illiquidity and show how these measures behave. We also show that the equilibrium amount of search may be less than, equal to or greater than the amount of search that is socially optimal. Finally, we show that excess returns on illiquid assets are fair games if returns are defined to include the appropriate shadow prices. Received: June 25, 2000; revised version: October 24, 2000     

家族创始人职业经历与企业风险承担*

基于创始人自身特征的异质性,本文研究家族创始人职业经历与企业风险承担的关系。研究发现,相对于家族创始人具有公共部门职业经历的企业,创始人具有企业部门职业经历的企业风险承担水平更高。进一步地,在产品市场竞争激烈的行业,家族创始人的企业部门职业经历与企业风险承担水平的正相关关系更强。研究表明,具有企业部门职业经历的家族创始人更偏好风险,其所掌控企业的风险承担水平也更高。本文发展了基于代理理论和控制权理论的家族企业风险承担研究,论证了家族创始人职业经历特征对企业风险承担的重要作用。同时,本文研究结论有助于投资者识别企业风险。     

流动性、生命周期与投资组合相异性——中国投资者行为调查实证分析

本文采用Probit和Tobit模型对中国居民的股票市场参与和投资组合的影响因素进行了分析,主要有以下的实证发现:首先,不流动性资产特别是房地产的投资显著影响了投资者的股票市场参与和投资组合,而且影响以“替代”效应或者说“挤出”效应为主。其次,投资者在进行投资组合时极少利用股票市场对其未来现金流所承担的风险进行对冲,也就是说,中国居民投资的“生命周期效应”不明显;第三,中国居民投资的“财富效应”非常显著。财富的增加既增加了居民参与股票市场的概率,也增加了居民参与股票市场的深度。     

送转与定向增发：基于市值管理的视角

送转和定向增发是 A 股市场上常见的两种公司行为。文章旨在从市值管理的视角，揭示上市企业送转与定向增发的内在关联及其经济逻辑。研究发现：(1)定向增发企业送转的比例与规模显著高于配对的未增发企业，而且两者的差异在增发后显著大于增发前；(2)在有外部机构投资者参与的定向增发中，企业送转的比例与规模显著高于其他类型的定向增发；(3)企业送转行为会显著影响增发折价，增发后送转企业的增发折价显著低于增发前送转(从未送转)的企业。文章研究表明，送转是 A 股市场上定向增发企业广为使用的一种市值管理手段，送转的规模与时机是企业与外部投资者理性博弈的结果。文章的研究不仅从市值管理角度为我国资本市场上频频出现的上市公司高送转行为提供了经验证据，而且对于监管层制定与送转和定向增发相关的政策具有重要的参考价值。     

Liquidity and equity returns in Borsa Istanbul

We investigate the relationship between expected returns and liquidity measures in Borsa Istanbul. To do so, we gather a wide range of illiquidity measures that can be applied to the market. Firm-level cross-sectional regressions indicate that there is a positive relationship between various illiquidity measures and one- to six-month ahead stock returns. Findings of the article are robust after using different sample periods and controlling for well-known priced factors, such as market beta, size, book-to-market ratio and momentum. The portfolio analysis reveals that stocks that are in the highest illiquidity quintile earn 7.2%–19.2% higher risk-adjusted annual returns than those in the lowest illiquidity quintile. The illiquidity premium is stronger for small stocks and stocks with higher return volatility and it increases (decreases) during periods of extremely low (high) market returns.     

R&D, patents and stock return volatility

Recent finance literature highlights the role of technological change in increasing firm specific (idiosyncratic) and aggregate stock return volatility, yet innovation data is not used in these analyses, leaving the direct relationship between innovation and stock return volatility untested. The paper investigates the relationship between volatility and innovation using firm level patent data. The analysis builds on the empirical work by Mazzucato (Rev Econ Dyn 5:318–345, 2002; J Evol Econ 13(5):491–512, 2003) where it is found that stock return volatility is highest during periods in the industry life-cycle when innovation is the most ‘radical’. In this paper we ask whether firms which invest more in innovation (more R&D and more patents) and/or which have more important innovations (patents with more citations) experience more volatility in their returns. Given that returns should in theory be higher, on average, for higher risk stocks, we also look at the effect of innovation on the level of returns. To take into account the competition between firms within industries, firm returns and volatility are measured relative to the industry average. We focus the analysis on firms in the pharmaceutical industry between 1974 and 1999. Results suggest that there is a positive and significant relationship between volatility, R&D intensity and the various patent related measures—especially when the innovation measures are filtered to distinguish the very innovative firms from the less innovate ones.     

Chinese overseas M&A performance and the Go Global policy1

It is well known that government plays an important role in the business activities of Chinese firms. Less certain is the effect this influence has on the wealth of those firms’ shareholders. We contribute to the literature by analysing stock market reactions to announcements by Chinese firms of overseas mergers and acquisitions (OMAs). OMAs are of particular interest because there can exist a conflict between the interests of the public sector in acquiring overseas assets, and the interests of the private sector in maximizing shareholder wealth. Our main dataset consists of 213 observations of 157 OMA events that occurred between 1994 and 2009, using share market returns from the Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hong Kong and US markets. The aggregation of share price data across multiple markets, and the listing of firms in multiple exchanges, raise econometric issues for the standard event‐study methodology. To address these, we use a new, feasible generalized least squares (GLS) procedure developed by Gu and Reed (2012) . On the basis of an analysis using both aggregated and disaggregated samples, and of daily and cumulative abnormal returns, we find consistent evidence that (i) Chinese OMAs have not lowered the wealth of shareholders of Chinese acquiring firms, and (ii) shareholders of Chinese acquiring firms have not fared worse under under China's ‘Go Global’ policy of encouraging outward investment by Chinese firms.     

Oil Price Shocks and Volatility in Australian Stock Returns

This paper examines the effect of oil shocks on return and volatility in the sectors of Australian stock market and finds significant effects for most sectors. For the overall market index, an increase in oil price return significantly reduces return, and an increase in oil price return volatility significantly reduces volatility. An advantage of looking at sector returns rather than a general index of stock returns is that sectors may well differ markedly in how they respond to oil price shocks. The energy and material sectors (as expected) and the financial sector (surprisingly) are out of step (in different ways) with results for the other sectors and for the overall index. A rise in oil price increases returns in the energy and material sectors and an increase in oil price return volatility increases stock return volatility in the financial sector. Explanation for the negative (positive) association between oil return (oil return volatility) and returns (volatility of returns) in the financial sector must be based on the association via lending to and/or holdings of corporate bonds issued by firms with significant exposure to oil price fluctuations and their speculative positions in oil‐related instruments.     

Productivity growth and stock returns: firm- and aggregate-level analyses

A firm’s stock return is affected not only by its own productivity growth rate, but also by other firms’ productivity growth rates. We show that this spillover effect is significant and time-varying, and underlies a fallacy of composition observed in late 20th century U.S. data: stock returns and productivity growth are correlated positively in firm-level data but negatively in aggregate data. This seeming fallacy of composition reflects Schumpeterian creative destruction: a few technology winners’ stocks rise with their rising productivity while many technology losers’ stocks fall with their declining productivity. Thus, most individual firms’ stock returns correlate negatively with aggregate productivity growth. This implies that technological innovation need not be a blessing for all firms and as a result, for investors holding the market. Our findings also provide a firm-level technology innovation-based explanation of prior findings that the market return correlates negatively with aggregate earnings.     

The Effects of Regulation and Regulatory Risk in the UK Electricity Distribution Industry

This paper examines the impact of regulation of the UK electricity industry on expectations of investors in the shares of regional electricity companies (RECs). This is done using event-study methodology where the movements of RECs' returns are compared to movements in the stock market as a whole. We then test for the presence of regulatory risk by modelling the conditional volatility of equity returns before and after 30 significant regulatory events using an ARCH process. Our results show no evidence of regulatory capture in this sector but suggest that regulatory risk does exist.     

International Transmission of the 2007–2009 Financial Crisis: Evidence from Japan

We investigate the international transmission of the 2007–2009 financial crisis to Japanese firms by examining both stock returns and changes in operating performance during the crisis. Our results indicate that Japanese firms were affected by the crisis mainly through the trade channel in both stock returns and changes in operating performance. We also find that the liquidity channel played a role in the fall of stock returns in response to the crisis and in the changes in return on assets during the first year of the crisis. We obtain weak evidence for the credit crunch channel and no evidence to support the trade finance channel.     

Return patterns of South Korean stocks following large price shocks

This study tests the market efficiency of the South Korean stock market by examining returns on stocks of the constituents of the KOSPI 50 from 2000 to 2014 following large 1-month price decreases and increases. An exponential GARCH (EGARCH) event study framework is used to analyse the stock returns. The results show that large price shocks, positive and negative, are likely to be followed by positive market returns. Moreover, the results show an increase in the beta of stocks in the years following a large price shock. The overall results therefore support the Uncertain Information Hypothesis. However, beginning in 2008, return patterns more closely reflect those hypothesised by the Efficient Market Hypothesis, possibly due to increased participation by international investors. The observed returns following large price increases and decreases can be partially explained by changes in the Korean won to US dollar exchange rate and the trading behaviour of foreign investors.     

Firm return volatility and economic gains: The role of oil prices

In this paper we investigate whether the oil price contributes to stock return volatility for 560 firms listed on the NYSE. Using daily data, we find that the oil price is a significant determinant and predictor of firm return variance. We devise trading strategies based on forecasts of firm return variance using the oil prices and historical averages. We find that investors can make substantial gains in returns by using the oil price in forecasting firm return variances.     

Political uncertainty and stock market returns: evidence from the 1995 Quebec referendum

Abstract.  In this study, we investigate the short run effect of the 30 October 1995 Quebec referendum on the common stock returns of Quebec firms. Our results show that the uncertainty surrounding the referendum outcome had an impact on stock returns of Quebec firms. We also find that the effect of the referendum varied with the political risk exposure of Quebec firms, that is, the structure of assets and principally the degree of foreign involvement. JEL classification: G14, G15     

Foreign direct investment, political resentment and the privatization process in eastern Europe

Foreign direct investment has been disappointingly low in eastern Europe, which has been reluctant to make existing assets available to foreign investors. To mitigate any such resentment, we propose a participation model in which foreign investors compete for joint venture contracts. Host governments contribute existing assets and receive non-voting stocks. Foreign investors, contributing capital and know-how, receive voting shares and control of operational decisions.{}This has several advantages over the cash sale of assets to foreigners. First, stock flow problems are eased, raising both asset prices and FDI flows. Second, by retaining some stake in the firm, transition countries share in the risk premium. Third, governments can hand over their shares to households, creating private collateral to foster new small businesses. Fourth, and crucially, compared to cash sales the auction of participation contracts offers higher privatization revenues in cases where governments cannot assess investors' knowledge and abilities. This reduces the risk of selling the family silver too cheaply, and should alleviate the host countries' resentment.     

Liquidity shocks and equilibrium liquidity premia

We study an equilibrium in which agents face surprise liquidity shocks and invest in liquid and illiquid riskless assets. The random holding horizon from liquidity shocks makes the return of the illiquid security risky. The equilibrium premium for such risk depends on the constraint that agents face when borrowing against future income; it is insignificant without borrowing constraint, but can be very high with borrowing constraint. Illiquidity, therefore, can have large effects on asset returns when agents face liquidity shocks and borrowing constraints. This result can help us understand why some securities have high liquidity premia, despite low turnover frequency.     

Do stock prices react to immigration restrictions? Evidence from an event study in Switzerland

This article tests the effects of sudden immigration restrictions on stock prices of firms in industries with high shares of immigrants. It estimates the abnormal returns as a function of the share of migrants by industry. To do so, one specific event – a referendum on migration policy with an unexpected outcome – that will potentially cut off Swiss listed companies from the supply of foreign labour is studied. Although operating in an industry with a high share of immigrants is associated with lower returns, the effect is not very strong, which indicates that investors seem to trust the government to leave some leeway in the implementation of the constitutional amendment that was voted on.     

CSR,rationality and the ethical preferences of investors in a laboratory experiment

This experimental study aims to clarify to what extent and in which direction investors react to CSR (Corporate Social Responsibility) initiatives meant to upgrade the ethical standards of firms beyond the minimal requirements of law. Subjects in the laboratory were invited to invest their endowment in a portfolio of financial assets. We provided information on the expected returns of each stock and on its inclusion in an ethical index, or exclusion from it. Our findings show that subjects’ behavior appears to be a function not only of their individual pay-offs but also of the information on the ethical standards of the firms issuing stocks. Most of them, however, did not show a fully irrational behavior as they consistently correlated the share of stocks with their expected returns. We may conclude that the sizeable reaction of our investors to the inclusion of a stock in the ethical index, or its exclusion from it, is the fruit of a deliberate choice.