Empirical of the Taiwan stock index option price forecasting model – applied artificial neural network

This work presents a novel neural network model for forecasting option prices using past volatilities and other options market factors. Out of different approaches to estimating volatility in the option pricing model, this study uses backpropagation neural network to forecast prices for Taiwanese stock index options. The ability to develop accurate forecasts of grey prediction volatility enables practitioners to establish an appropriate hedging strategy at in-the-money option.     

Do microfinance institutions benefit from integrating financial and nonfinancial services?

This article examines the impact of microfinance ‘plus’ (i.e. coordinated combination of financial and nonfinancial services) on the performance of microfinance institutions (MFIs). Using a global data set of MFIs in 77 countries, we find that the provision of nonfinancial services does not harm nor improve MFIs’ financial sustainability and efficiency. The results however suggest that the provision of social services is associated with improved loan quality and greater depth of outreach.     

Mission drift in microfinance: are the concerns really worrying? Recent cross-country results

This paper explores the impact of profitability on depth of outreach in microfinance institutions, a trade-off between which is commonly known as ‘mission drift', using a unique panel database containing 4–6 years' observations from 409 MFIs in 71 countries. The concerns for ‘mission drift' seemed invalid, although several countervailing results also emerged when scaling up indicators of size and age are included. The positive significant association between MFI-size and average loan amount suggests some extent of mission drift. Similar results were found when female borrowers' participation was the measure for outreach. However, the study largely fails to validate that the concerns for mission drift were true if it is defined as a distinctive trade-off between increased profit-motivation and depth of outreach of MFIs.     

Do women borrowers augment financial performance of MFIs?

There is some consensus that depth of outreach and financial performance of Microfinance Institutions (MFI) are positively correlated. A majority of microcredit borrowers are women and since the prevalence of female borrowers is even greater among the very poor, there should be a positive correlation between female borrowers and financial performance. Most of the MFIs target women as preferred borrowers. However, no study to date has investigated the relationship between targeting women and MFI’s sustainability with respect to profitability and yield. Utilizing a panel of 892 MFIs over a period of 10 years, this study shows that increased proportion of women borrowers has a statistically significant positive impact on yield and financial performance of MFIs. Consequently, this article also analyses the implication as to whether female borrowers have better repayment rate than male borrowers.     

利率市场化对我国商业银行的挑战及应对策略

利率市场化是我国金融市场国际化非常重要的一步。利率市场化使中国银行业面临严峻考验。面对净利息收入减少、利率波动提高、银行竞争加剧、信用风险提高以及系统性风险加大,我国商业银行必须调整盈利结构,创新产品,拓宽利润增长点。     

An Institutionalist Framework for a Consistent Financial Regulation

Abstract:

In the light of recurrent systemic crises that financialized market economies have been experiencing since the 1980s, this article seeks to determine the conditions required for a regulatory framework apt to ensure financial stability. Drawing upon an Institutionalist Minskyian endogenous financial instability approach, the article studies the fragilities of liberalized finance and points to some policy alternatives able to lead to an alternative financial regulatory model that is consistent with macroeconomic stability. It argues that in a weak regulatory environment financial markets naturally generate instabilities that could turn into systemic crises. The analysis maintains that in order to deal with such crises, a tight supervision should be framed under the aegis of public authorities and suggests some rules to develop a relevant regulatory system through an open and democratic decision process. Two points then deserve particular attention: a macro-prudential approach that regards instability as a systemic (non-individual) issue, and a preventive approach that aims at preventing systemic-risk generating activities from taking control over the markets.     

Product diversification and bank risk: evidence from South Asian banking institutions

ABSTRACT

We investigate whether the product diversification activities of South Asian banking institutions have led to an increase or decrease in their solvency and profit risks. Using the data of five countries – India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka – for the period 2000–2016, we analyse the effect of both income and assets diversification activities on the Z-score and SDs of ROA (Return on Assets) and ROE Return on Equity). Among income diversification activities, securities trading income has a significant positive influence on bank risk while other categories have no influence. With respect to assets diversification, non-interest-bearing assets and loans given to government were found to have a significant positive influence on bank risk, while mortgage loans and non-classified loans have opposite influences. However, the impacts of securities trading income and loans given to the government are mainly confined to private sector banks and state-owned banks, respectively. We also uncover some country-specific diversification influences on the above relationships.     

Do microfinance institutions fulfil their promise? Evidence from cross-country data

The concept of microfinance promises poverty reduction and economic growth. We empirically challenge this economic and social promise in an attempt to prove its fulfilment. Our multivariate regressions of economic development variables such as per capita gross national income based on PPP converted to international dollars (GNI per capita PPP), GDP growth, as well as gross capital formation and labour participation rate against specific microfinance institutions’ (MFI) variables show that the success and performance of MFIs significantly influence economic development. Microfinance directly influences economic growth through the value that MFI performance adds to purchasing power. An indirect impact comes from an improvement in capital accumulation and employment rates. These insights are valuable as the interdependencies between microfinance and economic development that this article verifies offer new and progressive insights into purposeful action that can be taken to stimulate economic development and growth. Targeted development programmes as well as socially responsible investments can be applied in developing economies in order to strengthen their growth and alleviate poverty.     

小额信贷商业化中的目标偏移——一个理论模型及西部小额贷款公司的经验研究

在商业化改革的趋势下,一些小额信贷机构的客户群上移,出现了目标偏移。本文通过建立理论模型,论证了在两类借款人交易成本存在较大差异的情况下,小额信贷机构的信贷目标定位对目标偏移问题的影响。利用西部小额贷款公司调研数据,本文验证了小额信贷商业化中的目标偏移问题以及小额信贷机构目标定位的影响。最后,本文提出差异化补贴、制定贷款对象监控机制以及考核社会绩效等建议,以期解决我国小额贷款公司的目标偏移问题。     

Competing Perspectives on the Liberalization of China’s Foreign Trade and Investment Regime

Using an institutionalist reading of the capability approach, I advocate policies for enhancing financial capabilities via financial inclusion. There are 34 million unbanked and underbanked households in the USA (with 68 million adults), many of whom rely on alternative financial services providers (AFSPs). Rather than castigate AFSPs for the predatory practices of some in the industry, this paper argues that a regulated industry can be integral to meeting needs of lower-to-moderate income communities. A typology of existing financial services in the USA is the basis for presenting these proposals. The policies I evaluate concern the economy's structures and institutions rather than focusing on an individual's or a household's financial literacy.     

中国财政金融支持农民收入增长的效率比较与完善措施

改革开放30年来,各级政府和金融机构对中国农业与农村经济的发展给予了重要的资金支持,有力地促进了农业生产与非农经济的发展,从而使农民收入有了显著提高。但实证分析表明,长期以来,我国金融支持与农民收入增长之间存在着低效率的关系。短期看,金融机构信贷对促进农民收入增长有一定的作用,而财政的作用则不明显。今后可通过加快财政支农资金的整合过程,提高政策性金融对农村的支持力度,推进开发性金融的发展等措施强化财政与金融对农民收入可持续增长的积极作用。